Tuesday Numbers | Incredibles 2 ~ 27M

[sfran43]

 

[AJG]

With DOJ approval coming in 2 weeks this deal might be coming and closing sooner than we expected.

 

I kinda think it's time to really consider that the 2 x-men films coming next year might not make it to the big screen. It sounds weird but I think it might be a possibility. 

[cookie]

5 minutes ago, AJG said:

With DOJ approval coming in 2 weeks this deal might be coming and closing sooner than we expected.

 

I kinda think it's time to really consider that the 2 x-men films coming next year might not make it to the big screen. It sounds weird but I think it might be a possibility. 

I'd be shocked if Dark Phoenix got pulled. New Mutants a little less so.

Edited June 20, 2018 by cookie

[AJG]

Just now, cookie said:

I'd be shocked if Dark Phoenix got canned. New Mutants a little less so.

 

A new streamer being launched with a big budget Marvel comics movie would be a huge move. It’d be shocking, but it’ll get a ton of attention.

[CJohn]

10 minutes ago, AJG said:

With DOJ approval coming in 2 weeks this deal might be coming and closing sooner than we expected.

 

I kinda think it's time to really consider that the 2 x-men films coming next year might not make it to the big screen. It sounds weird but I think it might be a possibility. 

New Mutants is a done deal for a while now. It is absolutely locked to be a Disney streaming exclusive.

 

I have my doubts about Dark Phoenix but it wouldn't shock me if it ended up being direct to streaming as well.

[Barnack]

34 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Nah.  There were several movies (SM, HP, other Pirates in the high $800s and $900s millions before and after ROTK and movies that had already made $1b and $1.8+b

 

Between TFA and AIW the highest grossing movies WW didn't hit $1.4b.  Even after Avatar smashed past the $2b barrior (like Titanic before it and $1b) the highest grossing film (JW:FK)  over the next decade other than TFA and AIW was $329m off the mark and the couple below it were almost $500m off the mark (Avengers & FF7).

 

No movies except Titanic ever reached 1B before Return of the Kings.

 

Potter got close but that was at the same time the biggest book past WW2 getting on screen. It also took 3 year's to get a third movie to do it, 2006 with Pirates.

 

I also have the feeling 800m was more common than 1.6b now around that time. Meaning that 2B is probably bigger than 1B.

 

2003 world box office was 20.3b, 2004 world box office was 25.8b we are now around 40b, not quite doubled ROTK market size (ROTK being release almost in 2004).

 

1B until around 2002 early 2003 is the 2B of now, not the mid 2000s imo.

Edited June 20, 2018 by Barnack

[pepsa]

50 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

2b is the new 1b when compared to early to mid 00's.

Nah in the early 00' to many movies made 800m - 950m, if that was correct we should have a lot more movies with 1.6B - 1.9B we need a few more years for that to happen.

[Mekanos]

Yeah, if 2B is the new 1B where are all of these movies making 1.7-1.9B?

 

There isn't going to be a 2 billion movie in the next 5-7 years that doesn't start with the letters "Av" in their title. 

Edited June 20, 2018 by Mekanos

[Avatree]

6 minutes ago, CJohn said:

New Mutants is a done deal for a while now. It is absolutely locked to be a Disney streaming exclusive.

 

I have my doubts about Dark Phoenix but it wouldn't shock me if it ended up being direct to streaming as well.

Isn't Dark Phoenix just the next xmen film after Apocalypse? Why would it be treated differently?

[Avatree]

2 minutes ago, Mekanos said:

Yeah, if 2B is the new 1B where are all of these movies making 1.7-1.9B?

 

There isn't going to be a 2 billion movie in the next 5-7 years that doesn't start with the letters "Av" in their title. 

I will bet anything that you're wrong. Make a bet? 

[Cap]

If the deal goes through in the next two weeks, I’d say the over/under is probably 60% for Kevin Feige stealing every other studio’s thunder at SDCC by hosting a “surprise” Hall H panel that reveals F4 and X-Men title cards and release dates. 

 

(Only reason it wouldn’t happen is if Disney wanted to do its own formal presentation at El Cap like when they announced Civil War.)

Edited June 20, 2018 by captainwondyful

[Barnack]

7 minutes ago, CJohn said:

I have my doubts about Dark Phoenix but it wouldn't shock me if it ended up being direct to streaming as well.

I think it would, they would have to deal with all the participation bonus deal post contract like that, would Brian Singer production company have to agree, everyone with theatrical bonus bought out ?

 

Do you want to start your collaboration with that new entity by destroying what they did like that ? And send that message to the industry that now that you have so much power you are ready to do something like this to someone has powerful has Kinberg (the guy working on their Boba Fett movie...)

 

It would be shocking.

 

Not sure how viable low cost streaming content that cost 2 million the minutes to make can be.....

 

 

[AJG]

7 minutes ago, Avatree said:

Isn't Dark Phoenix just the next xmen film after Apocalypse? Why would it be treated differently?

 

Timing. If the deal passes and closes in December it’ll be a struggle to remove the film from cinemas, deals would’ve been done, promo would already be heavy. 

But if Disney is in control BEFORE December then I think Dark Phoenix is getting the Cloverfield treatment.

 

New Mutants is a done deal because even if the deal closes at the latest date possible there’s still enough time to yank it out of cinemas.

Edited June 20, 2018 by AJG

[pepsa]

1 minute ago, Barnack said:

No movies except Titanic ever reached 1B before Return of the Kings.

 

Potter got close but that was at the same time the biggest book past WW2 getting on screen. It also took 3 year's to get a third movie to do it, 2006 with Pirates.

 

I also have the feeling 800m was more common than 1.6b now around that time. Meaning that 2B is probably bigger than 1B.

 

3004 world box office was 20.3b, 2004 world box office was 25.8b we are now around 40b, not quite doubled ROTK market size (ROTK being release almost in 2004).

 

1B until around 2002 early 2003 is the 2B of now, not the mid 2000s imo.

Well the growth in India and China doesn't go to Hollywood, European countries don't have that much local movies. China local movies account for more than 61.6%, 58.3%, 53.4% and this year we are looking at 55% or more. That means Hollywood movies only get an extra 4.3B instead of 8.6B.

So I agree with you analysis but thing hollywood didn't quite expand as much as the global overall BO.

[grey ghost]

27 minutes ago, Deja23 said:

Plus Disney’s deal now takes on $13B+ of Fox debt...driving the deal up to ~$85B. It’s ridiculous how expensive it’s getting.

Fucking Comcast.

 

Always throwing salt in the game 

[pepsa]

9 minutes ago, Mekanos said:

Yeah, if 2B is the new 1B where are all of these movies making 1.7-1.9B?

 

There isn't going to be a 2 billion movie in the next 5-7 years that doesn't start with the letters "Av" in their title. 

EDIT

Edited June 20, 2018 by pepsa

[sfran43]

Edited June 20, 2018 by sfran43

[oMeriMombatti]

		Movie	Distributor	Gross	Change	Thtrs.	Per Thtr.	Total Gross	Days
1	(1)	Incredibles 2	Walt Disney	$27,059,923	+15%	4,410	$6,136	$233,375,536	5
-	(2)	Ocean’s 8	Warner Bros.	$3,365,000	+39%	4,145	$812	$84,374,390	12
-	(3)	Tag	Warner Bros.	$2,300,000	+26%	3,382	$680	$19,067,212	5
-	(4)	Deadpool 2	20th Century Fox	$1,337,559	+21%	3,212	$416	$297,000,890	33
-	(5)	Solo: A Star Wars Story	Walt Disney	$1,329,329	+21%	3,182	$418	$196,194,730	26
-	(6)	Hereditary	A24	$1,311,646	+20%	2,998	$438	$29,417,970	12
-	(8)	Avengers: Infinity War	Walt Disney	$857,456	+34%	2,164	$396	$665,845,272	54
-	(9)	Book Club	Paramount Pictures	$542,671	+41%	1,656	$328	$62,905,208	33
-	(10)	Adrift	STX Entertainment	$448,179	+30%	1,929	$232	$27,698,846	19
-	(12)	Hotel Artemis	Global Road	$214,739	+23%	2,299	$93	$6,211,386	12
-	(13)	Won’t You Be My Neighbor?	Focus Features	$140,780	+2%	96	$1,466	$1,989,643	12
-	(14)	A Wrinkle in Time	Walt Disney	$100,555	+3%	245	$410	$100,105,519	103
-	(15)	Upgrade	BH Tilt	$93,850	+7%	646	$145	$11,259,630	19
-	(-)	Overboard	Lionsgate	$93,238	+48%	581	$160	$48,723,274	47
-	(-)	Life of the Party	Warner Bros.	$85,000	+30%	608	$140	$52,000,416	40
-	(-)	Breaking In	Universal	$83,480	+44%	504	$166	$45,312,170	40
-	(-)	A Quiet Place	Paramount Pictures	$72,032	+21%	397	$181	$186,590,823	75
-	(-)	First Reformed	A24	$55,494	+12%	273	$203	$2,525,738	33
-	(-)	Show Dogs	Global Road	$41,992	+58%	427	$98	$17,174,944	33
-	(-)	2001: A Space Odyssey	Warner Bros.	$25,000	+42%	13	$1,923	$57,602,269	18,341
-	(-)	Black Panther	Walt Disney	$16,329	+36%	146	$112	$699,641,630	124
-	(-)	I Feel Pretty	STX Entertainment	$12,873	+37%	110	$117	$48,775,700	61
-	(-)	Isle of Dogs	Fox Searchlight	$11,048	+6%	85	$130	$31,718,097	89
-	(-)	Super Troopers 2	20th Century Fox	$4,124	+13%	54	$76	$30,559,114	61
-	(-)	The Miracle Season	LD Entertainment	$2,248	-6%	18	$125	$10,191,731	75
-	(-)	Chappaquiddick	Entertainment Studi…	$1,157	+18%	14	$83	$17,373,524	75

AIW up 34%, Solo 21. Right on the heels of DP2

 

I2 up 15% vs FD's 18. But it also has bigger weekdays as well as having Father's Day Sunday inflated numbers a bit.

Edited June 20, 2018 by oMeriMombatti

[sfran43]

 

[Avatree]

13 minutes ago, AJG said:

 

Timing. If the deal passes and closes in December it’ll be a struggle to remove the film from cinemas, deals would’ve been done, promo would already be heavy. 

But if Disney is in control BEFORE December then I think Dark Phoenix is getting the Cloverfield treatment.

 

New Mutants is a done deal because even if the deal closes at the latest date possible there’s still enough time to yank it out of cinemas.

Disney, fox, comcast, whoever, why would they want to put it on VOD in the first place? it's the new X-Men movie... yes the last one dropped a lot but it still made 500M worldwide why on earth would they pull it from cinemas?