Weekend Thread 9/28-9/30: Night School $1.35M, Smallfoot $850K Thursday Previews

[TalismanRing]

1 hour ago, a2k said:

23-24 ow and 3.5-4.0x multi gives Smallfoot 80.5-96.0 dom. I hope it manages low-mid 80s like Ferdi and Emoji.

Probably closer to Stork's 3.4  multi (no summer or holidays) so on the lower end 

[Ryan Reynolds]

September was pretty weak, October getting stacked

[boxofficeth]

29 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

September was pretty weak, October getting stacked

I agree. WB should have swapped release date of A Star Is Born and Smallfoot. More breathing for Star and First Man and for Smallfoot and House.

[James]

17 hours ago, KeepItU25071906 said:

it will make another 100+ mln profit, yes, but it's not top-10, definitely.

According to Deadline the first Conjuring was the 7th most profitable movie of that year and it cost the same as The Nun. But the Nun will do much more WW and even the DOM difference won't be big.

 

For comparison, TC2 was #14 in 2016, Annabelle 2 was #11 in 2017 (it actually made more profit for WB than TC2, probably because it was also way cheaper).

 

I can find no data on the first Annabelle and I think that is a mistake by Deadline. No 20 that year was Interstellar with 40m smth in profits. I don't see how Annabelle making 257m on a 6m budget doesn't make more profit than that.   

[James]

Oh, and the Conjuring universe has officially surpassed 1.5b in WW revenue. It might actually cross 1.6b by the time The Nun is done or at least come very close to it.

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/franchises/chart/?id=conjuringfranchise.htm

[KeepItU25071906]

57 minutes ago, James said:

I can find no data on the first Annabelle and I think that is a mistake by Deadline. No 20 that year was Interstellar with 40m smth in profits. I don't see how Annabelle making 257m on a 6m budget doesn't make more profit than that.   

Deadline also didn't count also "Fall in Our Stars" (307 $mln box office with 12 $mln budget)- smart move!

 

I've found only this for the first Annabelle: Profit: $98,033,662. But take this with huge grain of salt.

 

[Krissykins]

23 hours ago, Jonwo said:

It’s in line with WAG’s other September releases so I imagine it’s within WB’s expectations 

Maybe they’ll stop soon then or change direction with them. 

[sfran43]

 

Edited September 30, 2018 by sfran43

[sfran43]

 

Edited September 30, 2018 by sfran43

[MCKillswitch123]

I presume both had strong Saturday bumps, given how they noticeably overperformed Friday estimates.

Edited September 30, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[TalismanRing]

4 hours ago, James said:

According to Deadline the first Conjuring was the 7th most profitable movie of that year and it cost the same as The Nun. But the Nun will do much more WW and even the DOM difference won't be big.

 

For comparison, TC2 was #14 in 2016, Annabelle 2 was #11 in 2017 (it actually made more profit for WB than TC2, probably because it was also way cheaper).

 

I can find no data on the first Annabelle and I think that is a mistake by Deadline. No 20 that year was Interstellar with 40m smth in profits. I don't see how Annabelle making 257m on a 6m budget doesn't make more profit than that.   

The budget is by far the smallest expense with these movies.  The P&A and the back end/ participation points (which become bigger as this series continues) are the biggest factors in profitability.  For instance, Deadline has Interstellar making the studios $40m but Nolan $90m.

[Nova]

That Saturday bump for Night School 

[Nova]

8 hours ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

September was pretty weak, October getting stacked

It's the second biggest September and considering it was filled with mostly rotten reviewed movies or smaller/mid budget films, I would say that is a win in my opinion. 

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

[Scubasteve716]

11 minutes ago, Nova said:

It's the second biggest September and considering it was filled with mostly rotten reviewed movies or smaller/mid budget films, I would say that is a win in my opinion. 

I don't think this year is even a top 10 biggest September 

[Nova]

4 minutes ago, Scubasteve716 said:

I don't think this year is even a top 10 biggest September 

Deadline said it was the second biggest September behind last year. Most folks just don't care to follow the box office of smaller films but in reality these smaller films that have been making money this September are imo extremely important in having a healthy box office. Also from Deadline: 

 

That pop for comedies is also a boost for this September’s turnstiles which is shaping up to be the second-best ever with an estimated U.S./Canada gross of $621M (per Deadline) that’s set to rank behind the month’s all-time record from last year of $698.5M. 

Edited September 30, 2018 by Nova

[Ezen Baklattan]

31 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

Doesn’t look like it’ll hit $5m, unfortunately. I doubt it’ll go much higher than 1k theaters.

[filmlover]

Just now, Spagheditary said:

Doesn’t look like it’ll hit $5m, unfortunately. I doubt it’ll go much higher than 1k theaters.

It's actually doing better than I thought it would tbh. Didn't feel like it was on anybody's radars right before it came out.

[sfran43]