CAPTAIN MARVEL | 701.4 M overseas ● 1128.3 M worldwide

[john2000]

12 minutes ago, Menor said:

So a 69 million Sunday OS? Still a great number, but wouldn't that be a pretty sizable drop from the 105 million Saturday?

idk but in china it had a steep drop on sunday so thats i think to be expected 

[Valonqar]

2 hours ago, peludo said:

I am not so sure of that. We could see this:

DOM: $375m (x2.45)

China: $140m (x1.6)

Rest of the world: $550m (x2.5+$15m in Japan)

WW: $1.065b

 

Remember that late legs should not be very good because of Shazam and Endgame

I don't think that Shazam will be that big OS. so no threat there and Endgame may indeed boost it with those who missed it. 

[terrestrial]

4 hours ago, john2000 said:

omg yes but it has low legs it is that big bc it opened so big so even with bad legs can score high 

I really like your enthusiasm for this movie. 

I am a bit older I guess, maybe its bcs of that: why I am always wait till 2nd to 3rd weekend results, as till then more and more local members add there special cases and so on:

We, like m in Germany do know local situation, but not other countries,... usually do not know when in which country a public holiday is that might have increased its OW

Or local movies that get released, local events,..

School holidays.... E.g. 3 states here had this week school holidays (2 of them big ones). Pupils are allowed to go to evening screenings. Next week, not anymore = a lot used the opportunity already

I do think a lot is possibl, but also nothing is sure this early.

3 hours ago, Menor said:

So a 69 million Sunday OS? Still a great number, but wouldn't that be a pretty sizable drop from the 105 million Saturday?

Do you work, go to school, study? Leave the house at Monday morning?

If yes (or no), do you see a lot of people go out Sunday evenings?

Additional, see China, this and that, a lot plays into WW BO

Edited March 10, 2019 by terrestrial

[john2000]

13 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

I really like your enthusiasm for this movie. 

I am a bit older I guess, maybe its bcs of that: why I am always wait till 2nd to 3rd weekend results, as till then more and more local members add there special cases and so on:

We, like m in Germany do know local situation, but not other countries,... usually do not know when in which country a public holiday is that might have increased its OW

Or local movies that get released, local events,..

School holidays.... E.g. 3 states here had this week school holidays (2 of them big ones). Pupils are allowed to go to evening screenings. Next week, not anymore = a lot used the opportunity already

I do think a lot is possibl, but also nothing is sure this early.

Do you work, go to school, study? Leave the house at Monday morning?

If yes (or no), do you see a lot of people go out Sunday evenings?

Additional, see China, this and that, a lot plays into WW BO

i am not saying that it wont be frontloaded heck it could drop 80% from what i know, what i am saying is that with this huge ow even with bad legs the movie will score high 800-900 its just commin sense and thats assuming that is has really bad legs ,i agree with you though we wont know until the weekdays starts and 2 weekend

[terrestrial]

Just now, john2000 said:

i am not saying that it wont be frontloaded heck it could drop 80% from what i know, what i am saying is that with this huge ow even with bad legs the movie will score high 800-900 its just commin sense and thats assuming that is has really bad legs ,i agree with you though we wont know until the weekdays starts and 2 weekend

(pssst, I do not consider it as bad legs, if the reason was an inflated OW or so. But I look usually only for budget x??? = result = means I want to know that kind of multiplier and in which country it got which BO in relation to its budget and other costs and income, see different conditions how much the distributer gets... )

[peludo]

2 hours ago, Valonqar said:

I don't think that Shazam will be that big OS. so no threat there and Endgame may indeed boost it with those who missed it. 

Whatever it does, it is still direct competition. And taking into account the health of the genre, I would not bet against Shazam.

[john2000]

5 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

(pssst, I do not consider it as bad legs, if the reason was an inflated OW or so. But I look usually only for budget x??? = result = means I want to know that kind of multiplier and in which country it got which BO in relation to its budget and other costs and income, see different conditions how much the distributer gets... )

sorry then maybe i didnt understand your previous comment correctly

[john2000]

Just now, peludo said:

Whatever it does, it is still direct competition. And taking into account the health of the genre, I would not bet against Shazam.

agree we will see what will happen with captain marvel legs and how shazam will affect it but i want to ask does shazam has china release date yet ?

[Rebeccas]

5 hours ago, peludo said:

I am not so sure of that. We could see this:

DOM: $375m (x2.45)

China: $140m (x1.6)

Rest of the world: $550m (x2.5+$15m in Japan)

WW: $1.065b

 

Remember that late legs should not be very good because of Shazam and Endgame

Feel like that would only help it. 

[a2k]

212.7 5-day OS-China : 44.0 3-day + 168.7 FSS => 44.0 + 168.7*3 = 550 OS-China

89.3 China FSS => 150 China

153 Dom FSS => 425 Dom

15 Japan

 

550 + 150 + 425 + 15 = 1140 ww

 

 

[john2000]

6 minutes ago, a2k said:

212.7 5-day OS-China : 44.0 3-day + 168.7 FSS => 44.0 + 168.7*3 = 550 OS-China

89.3 China FSS => 150 China

153 Dom FSS => 425 Dom

15 Japan

 

550 + 150 + 425 + 15 = 1140 ww

 

 

agreed with you even though i think it can touch 1.2 with a better hold we will see,also when the actuals ow will come tommorrow ?  afternoon ? sorry i am in a different timezone

Edited March 10, 2019 by john2000

[peludo]

41 minutes ago, john2000 said:

agree we will see what will happen with captain marvel legs and how shazam will affect it but i want to ask does shazam has china release date yet ?

I do not know if there is a release date for Shazam in China. Anyway, within a month CM will have done the 99.9% of its potential box office in China, so CM should not be worried about it.

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, peludo said:

I do not know if there is a release date for Shazam in China. Anyway, within a month CM will have done the 99.9% of its potential box office in China, so CM should not be worried about it.

i see do you think shazam could be big there ? i dont think so bc it is very different kind of movie but again is china

[peludo]

10 minutes ago, a2k said:

212.7 5-day OS-China : 44.0 3-day + 168.7 FSS => 44.0 + 168.7*3 = 550 OS-China

89.3 China FSS => 150 China

153 Dom FSS => 425 Dom

15 Japan

 

550 + 150 + 425 + 15 = 1140 ww

 

 

425 million DOM would mean better legs than Hunger Games (similar opening, same month, starred by a woman) and it already had great legs. I have serious doubts about reaching $400m.

[peludo]

3 minutes ago, john2000 said:

i see do you think shazam could be big there ? i dont think so bc it is very different kind of movie but again is china

Shazam seems to be a very different SH film, but the genre has done sistematically 600-800 million Yuan since 2014 (until Venom). Who knows... It is China. Unpredictable.

[a2k]

9 minutes ago, peludo said:

425 million DOM would mean better legs than Hunger Games (similar opening, same month, starred by a woman) and it already had great legs. I have serious doubts about reaching $400m.

Hunger Games did not have great legs. Did 2.67x, good for YA.

[HouseOfTheSun]

11 minutes ago, peludo said:

425 million DOM would mean better legs than Hunger Games (similar opening, same month, starred by a woman) and it already had great legs. I have serious doubts about reaching $400m.

YA adaptation are far more frontloaded than solo origins superhero movies 

[ZeeSoh]

59 minutes ago, peludo said:

Whatever it does, it is still direct competition. And taking into account the health of the genre, I would not bet against Shazam.

Not counting China, Black Panther had already made about 83% of its OS gross after its 4th weekend. 4th weekend is where Shazam will open for Captain Marvel. 

 

Captain Marvel should also play more frontloaded than Black Panther due to its high opening weekend numbers. So I think CM would have made close to 90% of its OS gross by Shazam’s first weekend.

 

Shazam may have an effect but it will be minimal at best. 

 

Endgame will have no effect whatsoever. It is coming out 2 months after. In fact it may even have a positive effect ala black panther. 

[john2000]

12 minutes ago, peludo said:

425 million DOM would mean better legs than Hunger Games (similar opening, same month, starred by a woman) and it already had great legs. I have serious doubts about reaching $400m.

we will know next week but it needs only 2.6 to hit 400 dom who knows   we will see 

[Rthmessiah]

 

CM

-China -3rd Highest MCU OWe, +43% BP

-Korea 6th Western IOWE, Highest 1st SA MCU OWe Highest March, +22% Ahead BP

-Australia , Highest 1st SA MCU Owe, Highest MArch Owe, +30% Ahead BP

-Indonesia 2nd Highest Western OWe, 2nd highest MCU OWe, Highest 1st SA MCU, Highest March, +22% BP

-Russia Highest 1st SA MCU Owe, 2nd Highest March, +102% BP

-India 9th biggest Western OWe, Highest !st SA MCU, Highest Western March Owe, +99% BP

-Thailand 5th Highest OWe, Highest 1st SA MCU, Highest Western March OWe, +42% BP

-Taiwan Highest 1st SA MCU, Highest March , +42% BP

-Phillipines 4th highest OWe,Highest 1st SA MCU , Highest Western March OWe, +32% BP

-Malaysia-9th highest  OWe, highest 1st SA MCU, highest western March OWe, +65% BP

-Vietnam 2nd highest OWe, highest MCU  & Western March OWe, +52% BP

-Singapore Highest 1st Sa MCU, 2nd Highest western March OWE, +22% BP

-Brazil 2nd Highest OWe, highest 1st SA MCU Highest March OWe, +66% BP

-Mexico 5th Highest OWe, Highest March OWe, +44% BP

-Rest LA Highest industry Opening Weekends all time, #3 PAraguay, #4 Peru, #6 Panama Chile Ecuado, #7 Columbia

-UK/IRE highest 1st SA MCU 3rd Highest March,  BP opened Tuesday +25% BP Fri-Sun

-France Highest 1st SA MCU, 3rd highest March, +48% BP

-Italy Highest 1st SA MCU, +76% BP

-Spain  highest 1st SA MCU, +76% BP

-Rest EU 2nd Highest Owe Ukraine, 2nd Highest MCU Belgium, Bosnia, Croatia, Netherlands, Romania, Serbia Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey. Highest March Austria, Belgium , Iceland Netherlands(non local) Slovenia,Turkey (US Studios) 

Imax -Highest Marvel 2nd Highest OWe, Biggest Imax Owe in 12 Intl Territories inclu Germany, Ukraine, India, Puerto Rico