CAPTAIN MARVEL | 701.4 M overseas ● 1128.3 M worldwide

[terrestrial]

 

Through Friday, here’s the overseas breakdown from Disney:

Territories	GBO
China	$34.3M
Korea	$9.3M
Indonesia	$6.4M
Brazil	$5.4M
Russia	$5.4M
UK	$5.3M
Australia	$4.5M
France	$4.3M
Mexico	$4.1M
Thailand	$3.7M
Germany	$3.4M
Other	$40.9M
Total	$127.0M

out of article

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-estimates-captain-marvel-mcu-domestic-global-higher-further-faster/

 

[HouseOfTheSun]

Looks like we’ll fall just short of the pie in the Sky 500m, but just an incredible debut for Carol

[ThomasNicole]

39 minutes ago, LexJoker said:

The slight trouble is that the biggest OS market, China, will end up with less than 2x multiplier. That means to get to $700M the multiplier for the other markets should be more than 2.5x. Possible but very difficult.

in Asia i agreed, but in Europe / Australia / Latin America is kinda normal to have 3x or more

 

let me put in this way:

Asia debut will probably be something like $ 160 - 175M, i think it will have a bad multiplier and finish with $ 300 - 320M;

But in the rest of the world, debut will probably be like $ 140M, and multipliers tends to be better, so probably at least 2.5x for a $ 350M total.

 

I think it could be a little better, so + 700M is a possibility. But of course could be a little lower and really finish with $ 650M, which is enough anyway to a billion worldwide.

[pepsa]

6 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

in Asia i agreed, but in Europe / Australia / Latin America is kinda normal to have 3x or more

 

let me put in this way:

Asia debut will probably be something like $ 160 - 175M, i think it will have a bad multiplier and finish with $ 300 - 320M;

But in the rest of the world, debut will probably be like $ 140M, and multipliers tends to be better, so probably at least 2.5x for a $ 350M total.

 

I think it could be a little better, so + 700M is a possibility. But of course could be a little lower and really finish with $ 650M, which is enough anyway to a billion worldwide.

Yeah 2.5 would be bad in lot of countries in Europe, LA and Australia. 

[Legion Again]

Hard to see it below TDKR at this rate, or above I2. 

[UserHN]

6 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Hard to see it below TDKR at this rate, or above I2. 

But China is heading in the wrong direction. Maoyan is now predicting less than $90M OW.

[Legion Again]

9 minutes ago, UserHN said:

But China is heading in the wrong direction. Maoyan is now predicting less than $90M OW.

“Less than 90” as in 89.5+ 😛   

 

I still think it will beat that, low 90s. But anyway that was accounted for in my range, the OS-C gross overperformance more than compensates forChina coming in slightly below I hoped.

Edited March 9, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Every time China and DOM is looming a tad lower than expected OS-China somehow picks up the slack.

[a2k]

127 OS thru Friday which means ~93 OS-China thru Friday.

Wed+Thu was 44 so OS-China Friday is 93-44 = 49

 

Sat and Sun together could bring ~125 OS-China which gives a bit under 220 OS-China 5-day?

 

Removing Wed-Thu and giving 3x multiplier to 175 OS-China FSS gives 570 OS-China after adding back Wed-Thu.

 

425 Dom + 160 China + 570 OS-China = 1155 ww looks like the high-end?

 

Edit: I think Japan is to come. don't know about other markets. That could add 15 for 1170.

Edited March 9, 2019 by a2k

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, a2k said:

127 OS thru Friday which means ~93 OS-China thru Friday.

Wed+Thu was 44 so OS-China Friday is 93-44 = 49

 

Sat and Sun together could bring ~125 OS-China which gives a bit under 220 OS-China 5-day?

 

Removing Wed-Thu and giving 3x multiplier to 175 OS-China FSS gives 570 OS-China after adding back Wed-Thu.

 

425 Dom + 160 China + 570 OS-China = 1155 ww looks like the high-end?

well i hope it can get another 45 mill  in my opinion high end is  1.2

Edited March 9, 2019 by john2000

[Omni]

2 hours ago, a2k said:

127 OS thru Friday which means ~93 OS-China thru Friday.

Wed+Thu was 44 so OS-China Friday is 93-44 = 49

 

Sat and Sun together could bring ~125 OS-China which gives a bit under 220 OS-China 5-day?

 

Removing Wed-Thu and giving 3x multiplier to 175 OS-China FSS gives 570 OS-China after adding back Wed-Thu.

 

425 Dom + 160 China + 570 OS-China = 1155 ww looks like the high-end?

 

Edit: I think Japan is to come. don't know about other markets. That could add 15 for 1170.

That's a very realistic scenario. China's opening makes IM3 look too difficult to reach.

 

Yet another blockbuster that finishes in the 500's OS-Ch-Jap. This is becoming a little boring.

[Valonqar]

so what markets are there to open? Japan, Italy,???

[raulbalarezo]

1 minute ago, Valonqar said:

so what markets are there to open? Japan, Italy,???

Only Japan 

[Valonqar]

Just now, raulbalarezo said:

Only Japan 

Ok, that makes sense. the numbers do look like it opened everywhere but maybe 1 or 2 markets. 

[terrestrial]

AUS per Asgard

Quote

CM Huge Sat increase from Fri +70% (biggest Comic Book) bigger than increase BATB, 7th biggest Sat (behind MCU  AIW,TA, AOU) others TFA, TLJ,HPDH2. Looking  We lc13.5(BP 10.5m)/15m +wed Pvev . will be top 10 Sunday as well.

lc = local currency

[Valonqar]

doesn't Oz foreshadow dom performance? Could we expect such jump today for CM? 🙏

[Darth Lehnsherr]

I didn't expect this to outopen Black Panther in so many of the more traditional markets.

 

Insane OS performance so far.

 

 

[XXR vs XXR]

4 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

doesn't Oz foreshadow dom performance? Could we expect such jump today for CM? 🙏

Definitely not in this case. Might leg out 40% over true Friday but probably 30%.

[Valonqar]

2 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

Definitely not in this case. Might leg out 40% over true Friday but probably 30%.

so what would 40% and 30% be? 

[terrestrial]

NZ per Asgard

 

Quote

CM WE looking lc2.2m/2.5m +wed prev ,big Sat increase , 2.2m 2nd biggest Mar behind BvS and 4th biggest MCU OWE Behind AIW,AOU,IM3, ahead TA (it did  Open on wed Holiday) & CW