Dec 21-23 Weekend Thread | Sat#'s (Asgard pg 60) - Aqua 21.8, MPR 8.8, BB 7.2, SMSV 6.9, Mule 3.8 | Discuss Pitbull's musical work here

[MrGlass2]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Wonder Woman only dropped 15% on Sunday...it's gonna be hard to do a lot better on holds than that:)...

Well it will be relatively easier for Aquaman to have a nice drop is what I meant. National Treasure: Book of Secrets (12/21 release) dropped by 17.2%.

[cax16]

Told you guys weeks ago people were setting expectations for Aquaman way to high and when numbers came in these exact conversations were going to happen.

 

I was happy with 200mil domestic for Aquaman so as long as it reaches that I’m good. 

[TwoMisfits]

5 minutes ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

Point taken! However, one should separate their expectations against actual performance. “Not that good” is not accurate for Aquaman’s performance so far. The performance is good by any measure- some would even say very good based on the tracking estimates. 

Well, I'll say Aquaman is doing great, even amazing, in China...but for a $200M budgeted super, maybe only getting to Venom-to-Ant-Man numbers DOM is not great or even good DOM (I think it can be better, but my track record this week is gonna make me cautious:)...I mean, by the hit tracking logic, Mortal Engines did good b/c it hit its single digit DOM BO tracking...but tracking is not the be-all-and-end-all for box office performance:)...you gotta compare it to the actual expectation when they put the budget out on the film (b/c you know they only approve big numbers if they expect big performance in places)...

 

PS - Screenrant says its $160M, so take your pick on the real budget number for Aquaman:)...

Edited December 22, 2018 by TwoMisfits

[RealLyre]

1 minute ago, Manny G said:

Gotta love how before release it was “Aquaman is the Antman of DC he’s a joke “ now the goalpost is being moved 

it's going to finish very close to MoS if not higher domestically, the domestic performance based on this weekend (70M-78M 3-day) is nothing short of stellar for Solo CBMs. unless you compare it to something like Black Panther

 

[MovieMan89]

Honestly, everything is underwhelming for the openers. Even AQM will need to compensate with some great WOM or else I wouldn’t expect much over 3x and Grinch is the movie of the holiday season. And it’s not even hitting 300. 

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, RealLyre said:

it's going to finish very close to MoS if not higher domestically, the domestic performance based on this weekend (70M-78M 3-day) is nothing short of stellar for Solo CBMs. unless you compare it to something like Black Panther

 

It’ll likely settle for more in the mid-60s with a preview-to-opening-day ratio that high.

[RealLyre]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

Well, I'll say Aquaman is doing great, even amazing, in China...but for a $200M budgeted super, maybe only getting to Venom-to-Ant-Man numbers DOM is not great or even good DOM...I mean, by the hit tracking logic, Mortal Engines did good b/c it hit its single digit DOM BO tracking...but tracking is not the be-all-and-end-all for box office performance:)...you gotta compare it to the actual expectation when they put the budget out on the film (b/c you know they only approve big numbers if they expect big performance in places)...

but it's going to make much more than Ant-Man and Venom domestically.. 

 

245M is like the floor if the opening is in the mid 70s

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

Honestly, everything is underwhelming for the openers. Even AQM will need to compensate with some great WOM or else I wouldn’t expect much over 3x and Grinch is the movie of the holiday season. And it’s not even hitting 300. 

 

Thats the problem, when you have Detective Pika-Pika releasing next year. All the familys are already saving money.

[Michael Seng Wah]

Come on, this opening number is fine.

 

Just back from another session. This session had a lot of families. 

A father asked his daughter: Is the movie exciting?

Daughter: Absolutely exciting and thrilling.

 

Then another son brought his old parents, both father and mother at age 60+ enjoyed it.

 

Second weekend now and the cinema was super crowded till I gave up buying popcorn.

[TwoMisfits]

You know, I posted yesterday in tracking that it was a bad sign for all the openers that my local used its saved screen to give FANTASTIC BEASTS back showings for this weekend vs giving it to any of the 5 movies it opened this week (which is what ALWAYS happens at this theater as a movie overperforms)...the theater is doing the extra Beasts screenings again today (and giving Elf a morning screening)...so, I knew numbers would be low, but it's still not great to see:)...

 

 

[grim22]

That's a good Friday number since it's without the 4.9M. The 30M including the 4.9M sneaks made no sense since Fridays for CBMs are normally double their Thursday previews. With a 28M Friday and giving it a low 25% increase today and 20% Sunday drop gets it to around 72M without sneaks. (9, 19, 24,19.5). 45% drop on Monday and 105% increase on Tuesday puts it at 110M by to end of day Christmas.

 

Waiting for the Poppins and Bumblebee numbers. If Bumblebee beats Poppins for #2 over the weekend, it will be one of the biggest upsets of the year.

[Johnny Tran]

7 minutes ago, Manny G said:

Gotta love how before release it was “Aquaman is the Antman of DC he’s a joke “ now the goalpost is being moved 

The movie has a shot to do more WW than GOTG2 and Spider-Man Homecoming and Venom among others and people are writing it's obituary. This is why people are rightly called out on their BS around here. 

[TwoMisfits]

2 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

but it's going to make much more than Ant-Man and Venom domestically.. 

 

245M is like the floor if the opening is in the mid 70s

From your lips to a higher ear:)...we don't really have a Christmas super opening to compare...and we have 2 supers to take the same audience right now...so, I'm not certain anything will happen yet...except it will hit the Star Wars multis as a min...

[RealLyre]

 

 

 

[MovieMan89]

I am still interested to see what MPR does over the proper holiday when schools are out in full force. Obviously it’s not going to be massive like I thought, but the numbers this low are still very fishy to me. I can’t imagine it’s not going to nab a large chunk of the holiday moviegoing family audience, which it clearly hasn’t done yet. 

[sfran43]

 

Edited December 22, 2018 by sfran43

[filmlover]

Saw Bumblebee last night and it’s actually a pretty good movie. I could see it legging it out to a total higher than the flop last Transformers movie.

[YSLDC]

1 minute ago, RealLyre said:

 

 

 

Yup, this is making more than BvS. $900 locked

[sfran43]

 

[MrGlass2]

8 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It’ll likely settle for more in the mid-60s with a preview-to-opening-day ratio that high.

Are you doing a Deadline, and getting confused about the pre-previews?