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Mary Poppins Returns OS

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UK is nearly half of that 20m OS.

17 markets 9.4m UK + 10.6m 16 markets

19 markets to come looking at the "47% of marketplace" tweet.

 

What's it looking at...125m OS?

Edited by a2k
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3 minutes ago, a2k said:

UK is nearly half of that 20m OS.

17 markets 9.4m UK + 11.6m 16 markets

19 markets to come looking at the "47% of marketplace" tweet.

 

What's it looking at...125 OS?

 

MPR should have a very leggy run with holidays. The Greatest Showman managed a 10x multiplier in the UK with a similar release date. I wouldn't be surprised if MPR does something similar in what is surely to be its biggest OS market.

 

Musicals are almost always a success in Japan, and it normally is the highest or second highest OS market for live-action musicals. MPR is also a Disney film, so that is another plus in the market. With the right push, I can see $50+ million in Japan.

 

Australia usually follows domestic interests in films, so I think it should be good for around $25 million.

 

The rest of the markets are harder to predict. It will probably disappoint in all other non-English speaking territories. 

 

No China release apparently, not that it matters (it would almost certainly bomb). 

 

The Greatest Showman grossed about $105 million OS minus UK, Japan, Australia, and China. 

 

I think at least $200 million OS is possible, with a chance to go over $250 million OS.

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2 hours ago, Omni said:

The OW in Italy is pretty good!

 

Should be a 400M WW grosser if it does what it's supposed to do during the holidays.

Well, the budget is just $ 130M... so  + 400M will be a good result

 

Much lower than almost everyone here [including myself] was expecting, but still a good result

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15 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

Well, the budget is just $ 130M... so  + 400M will be a good result

 

Much lower than almost everyone here [including myself] was expecting, but still a good result

 

Everyone was delusional about those 400 M + domestic predictions alone. It will do well, it's a musical after all, so there's a limit to how big it can be. 

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15 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

Well, the budget is just $ 130M... so  + 400M will be a good result

 

Much lower than almost everyone here [including myself] was expecting, but still a good result

$400M is absolutely not happening. This will do slightly better than Into the Woods, so around $250M $300M top

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https://deadline.com/2018/12/aquaman-bumblebee-spider-man-into-the-spider-verse-mary-poppins-returns-china-global-international-box-office-1202525382/

 

Also strong was the start in Italy where Mary took No. 1 with $2.8M and topped fellow Blunt-starrer Into The Woods by 117%, Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again by 111%, The Greatest Showman by 23% and La La Land by 19%.

 

France’s $2M was ahead of Into The Woods, Showman and Mamma Mia 2. Germany, with $1.9M, topped Woods, La La and Showman. In both Spain ($1.4M) and Belgium ($500K), Mary Poppins Returns opened at No. 2. For a family pic, Brazil’s $500K is disappointing.

 

Next weekend adds Mexico, along with Scandinavia and some of Asia (Mary will not be going to China as it’s just not a fit for the market). Later on, Australia, Russia, Japan and Korea chime in.

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MARY POPPINS RETURNS

MPR-26306Rsm.jpg?w=301&h=202&crop=1
Walt Disney Studios

Disney’s sequel rose by 11% in Europe, taking advantage of the holidays and led by the UK with a $29.6M cume. Overall, the weekend brought in $28.9M from 37 markets for a $74.4M overseas cume and $173.3M globally.

 

The UK and Italy gave Mary the No. 1 slots again. In the UK, she’s got 39% market share (triple the nearest competitor) and is 130% above the leggy The Greatest Showman, 31% over Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle and in line with The Hobbit. Italy’s $11.2M total takes Mary over La La Land’s lifetime in the market.

Elsewhere, MPR saw great holds: Poland (+161%), Netherlands (+76%), France (+55%), Switzerland (+28%), Belgium (+25%), Austria (+24%), Germany (+41%) and Spain (-14%). The second Brazil weekend fell by 20% after a slow start last frame. Below the UK and Italy, France ($6.2M), Germany ($5.7M) and Spain ($5.1M) round out the Top 5.

Next up are notably Australia and Russia in the coming week, followed by Japan on February 1 and Korea on February 14.

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Mary Poppins Returns has crossed $250m worldwide after a $38m session enabled the family tentpole to float up to $257.9m. A $23m session from 47 territories resulted in a $119.2m international running total.

 

The film starring Emily Blunt has crossed $100m in Europe and finished 2018 as the tenth highest release in the UK, where it held on to number one in the third weekend and stands at $43.7m. Poppins debuted in Australia on January 1 and has taken $5m, while Russia has delivered $2.2m after four days.

 

After the UK, Italy places second on the leaderboard on $14m, followed by France on $9.5m, Germany on $8.3m, Spain on $7.7m, then Australia, followed by Mexico on $3.4m, and Belgium on $2.1m.

 

Source: Screen Daily 

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425 ww is a reasonable target. Will give strong theatrical returns considering China's portion of the gross is nill and yet the movie is looking at 3.25x the prod budget.

 

Goes without saying that a lot of us including me had MPR doing 300-400+ dom itself. That note is perpetually attached to any post singing MPR's boxoffice praise on BOT.

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23 hours ago, a2k said:

425 ww is a reasonable target. Will give strong theatrical returns considering China's portion of the gross is nill and yet the movie is looking at 3.25x the prod budget.

 

Goes without saying that a lot of us including me had MPR doing 300-400+ dom itself. That note is perpetually attached to any post singing MPR's boxoffice praise on BOT.

Me too :stretcher:

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