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Eric Prime

WrathofHan and CoolEric's Controversial* Predictions of 2019 (*Controversial results may vary)

By Eric Prime, in Box Office Discussion

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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

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February 8

 

Cold Pursuit: Liam Neeson movies are pretty consistent at the box office. The Commuter, Run All Night, andA Walk Among the Tombstones are probably the best comps for this as I can’t see it breaking above 40-45M when the other two releases this weekend will be so much bigger. Buzz is pretty muted right now (the main trailer on Lionsgate’s channel only has 2.6M views after 2 and a half months), but things can change given that this will be older skewing. So yeah, Commuternumbers. 14/35 (2.5x)

 

The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part: The LEGO franchise is in a bit of an unfortunate spot right now. The LEGO Movie was a massive hit that surprised audiences with its quality and revived the toy’s popularity. Naturally, Warner Brothers expanded on this success by creating two spinoff movies: LEGO Batman and LEGO Ninjago. The former was overpredicted by a lot on here but still managed an impressive total of nearly 200M. However, the latter was a money loser for the studio and received a mixed reception from critics and audiences. Ninjago likely ruined any momentum this franchise had, because the buzz for the sequel should be a lot higher than it is. With only a month and a half to go until the sequel releases, it feels like nobody is talking about this. Additionally, it faces a lot of competition later in its run. Dragon 3 will make somewhat of an impact (more on that later), and Captain Marvel andWonder Park will kill its late legs. I expect buzz to pick up closer to release, but this is not coming anywhere near the first’s gross. In fact, I will go out on a limb and say this grosses less than LEGO Batman. 55/170 (3.1x)

 

What Men Want: If something from this month surprises, it will be What Men Want. Thanks to a batch of hilarious trailers, a lot of people are feeling high on this film’s chances. Taraji P. Henson is always likable, and it comes out a week before Valentine’s Day, making it a great choice for the 14th. However, the second trailer’s dropoff from the first in views is a little concerning, especially because it does not even have 300k views. Of course, movies like this do not need to worry about early buzz too much. I think this will easily finish above Acrimony, though legs are a question mark due to Isn’t It Romantic? competing for the same demo next weekend. 20/55 (2.75x)

Edited by WrathOfHan
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Julian1410 Cult Classic

Julian1410

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28 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I think What Men Want could do $100M+. The most high profile romance title for Valentine’s Day and seems like exactly the kind of movie where Taraji could draw both black and white audiences alike.

I think the valentine’s movie Will be that rebel wilson flick

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JB33 Blockbuster

JB33

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2 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

 

January 8

 

Cold Pursuit: Liam Neeson movies are pretty consistent at the box office. The Commuter, Run All Night, andA Walk Among the Tombstones are probably the best comps for this as I can’t see it breaking above 40-45M when the other two releases this weekend will be so much bigger. Buzz is pretty muted right now (the main trailer on Lionsgate’s channel only has 2.6M views after 2 and a half months), but things can change given that this will be older skewing. So yeah, Commuternumbers. 14/35 (2.5x)

 

The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part: The LEGO franchise is in a bit of an unfortunate spot right now. The LEGO Movie was a massive hit that surprised audiences with its quality and revived the toy’s popularity. Naturally, Warner Brothers expanded on this success by creating two spinoff movies: LEGO Batman and LEGO Ninjago. The former was overpredicted by a lot on here but still managed an impressive total of nearly 200M. However, the latter was a money loser for the studio and received a mixed reception from critics and audiences. Ninjago likely ruined any momentum this franchise had, because the buzz for the sequel should be a lot higher than it is. With only a month and a half to go until the sequel releases, it feels like nobody is talking about this. Additionally, it faces a lot of competition later in its run. Dragon 3 will make somewhat of an impact (more on that later), and Captain Marvel andWonder Park will kill its late legs. I expect buzz to pick up closer to release, but this is not coming anywhere near the first’s gross. In fact, I will go out on a limb and say this grosses less than LEGO Batman. 55/170 (3.1x)

 

What Men Want: If something from this month surprises, it will be What Men Want. Thanks to a batch of hilarious trailers, a lot of people are feeling high on this film’s chances. Taraji P. Henson is always likable, and it comes out a week before Valentine’s Day, making it a great choice for the 14th. However, the second trailer’s dropoff from the first in views is a little concerning, especially because it does not even have 300k views. Of course, movies like this do not need to worry about early buzz too much. I think this will easily finish above Acrimony, though legs are a question mark due to Isn’t It Romantic? competing for the same demo next weekend. 20/55 (2.75x)

THE PRODIGY?

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JB33 Blockbuster

JB33

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1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

I thought about writing this, but BOM doesnt have it wide rn. I can see Upgrade or Dark Web numbers happening there.

Oh, I thought it was going wide. They must have just changed it.

 

Weird. Just checked and they have it going wide for me.

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/schedule/?view=bydate&release=all&date=2019-02-01&showweeks=4&p=.htm

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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

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2 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Oh, I thought it was going wide. They must have just changed it.

 

Weird. Just checked and they have it going wide for me.

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/schedule/?view=bydate&release=all&date=2019-02-01&showweeks=4&p=.htm

Oh shit, they just changed it 🤔 Yeah, I'll go with 5/12 there

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Eric Prime Global Phenomenon

Eric Prime

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Sigh...well, guess I'll get it over with.

February 15

Alita: Battle Angel: Ho boy, can't wait to be hounded by a bunch of weirdos who have a fetish for 10 ft. tall blue people. Exclusively Jimgang, I will be attacked by in this thread? Let's see what happens. Perhaps Marvelites or TLJ haters might be even worse.

 

Anyways, the second delay for the project, this has sacrificed Christmas legs for a Valentine’s Day opening and weaker competition. So where does this go box office wise? I’ll admit I had no idea how the film would do in July. I had no idea how the film would do in December. And guess what? Still have no idea how the film will do in February. The delays certainly don’t help the film’s buzz, and it seems like a film that only Cameron die-hards care about and nobody else. But the marketplace won’t have any action films available, and James Cameron still has enough pull and a passionate fanbase. I’m going to say this will cross the century mark, even if by a slight amount. It's not anything good, but it won't be anything terrible, especially if it's a hit overseas. (btw if you Cameron fans are gonna be pissy at me over this, go step on a Lego) 35/50/110 (3.14x, 2.2x)

 

Happy Death Day 2U: Happy Death Day was a modest hit when it came out last year, and this seems like it will see a slight increase. The first film has likely found a new audience in the ancillary market, and the trailers make the movie seem pretty fun. It also seems like a good date night option for teens. Won't set the box office on fire like the Blumhouse films surrounding it, but it'll find mild success. 20/30/65 (3.25x, 2.17x)

 

Isn’t It Romantic: Not really sure what to do multiplier wise for this, because of it having a six-day weekend, but I guess I'll try? What matters is the total anyways. Okay, so Rebel Wilson? Aight. The director of Harold and Kumar 3 and The Final Girls? Okay. Adam Devine? Ugh. But the premise seems enjoyable enough, the trailer has a couple laughs, and it should be a good date night option for this coming Valentine’s Day/President’s Day weekend, especially since this will have a PG-13 rating. It'll definitely be successful, but expect What Men Want to be the bigger hit, in spite of its R rating. 15/30/75 (5x, 2.5x)

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Eric Prime Global Phenomenon

Eric Prime

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February 22

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World: Here’s a fun fact: I’ve gotten the latest trailer three times in the theatre, and all three times they’ve made me teary-eyed and emotional. So yeah, I’m really excited for this movie. But do I think most people are?

 

This is going to be Universal’s first Dreamworks film, and we know how well Universal has done with Illumination in the past few years. However, this has a lot going against it. For starters, this is coming out five years after the last movie, which is the worst time a sequel can be released. Far enough from the last movie people need to be reminded it exists, not so far enough that it becomes nostalgic. And with the second film already being an underperformer, that doesn’t help matters. To say nothing about the slew of competition it will deal with, including Lego, Captain Marvel, and Wonder Park.

 

However, don’t mistake my tone. This will still be a decent hit, and at the very least, Universal’s marketing has gone in the right direction, with 28M+ views for its first teaser and pretty solid views for the full-length trailer (6.5M+ views. Not amazing, but still impressive). Hopefully like with Illumination, the film's advertising will keep on trucking well into the next couple of months. With the movie opening so early overseas (Australia/New Zealand are getting it next weekend), this should hopefully lead to good reviews as well. Kung Fu Panda 3 numbers seem like a safe range for this movie, which would be a solid ending to a great trilogy and a step in the right direction for Universal’s new animation studio. 43/145 (3.37x)

 

The Rhythm Section looks like it'll be dumped on Netflix than even making it to theaters, so I'm just gonna skip that.

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JB33 Blockbuster

JB33

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6 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

February 22

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World: Here’s a fun fact: I’ve gotten the latest trailer three times in the theatre, and all three times they’ve made me teary-eyed and emotional. So yeah, I’m really excited for this movie. But do I think most people are?

 

This is going to be Universal’s first Dreamworks film, and we know how well Universal has done with Illumination in the past few years. However, this has a lot going against it. For starters, this is coming out five years after the last movie, which is the worst time a sequel can be released. Far enough from the last movie people need to be reminded it exists, not so far enough that it becomes nostalgic. And with the second film already being an underperformer, that doesn’t help matters. To say nothing about the slew of competition it will deal with, including Lego, Captain Marvel, and Wonder Park.

 

However, don’t mistake my tone. This will still be a decent hit, and at the very least, Universal’s marketing has gone in the right direction, with 28M+ views for its first teaser and pretty solid views for the full-length trailer (6.5M+ views. Not amazing, but still impressive). Hopefully like with Illumination, the film's advertising will keep on trucking well into the next couple of months. With the movie opening so early overseas (Australia/New Zealand are getting it next weekend), this should hopefully lead to good reviews as well. Kung Fu Panda 3 numbers seem like a safe range for this movie, which would be a solid ending to a great trilogy and a step in the right direction for Universal’s new animation studio. 43/145 (3.37x)

 

The Rhythm Section looks like it'll be dumped on Netflix than even making it to theaters, so I'm just gonna skip that.

Yep, and the latest I read on THE TURNING is that it's simply frozen; it's not postponed for another date, nor is it confirmed a go on its present date.

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