WrathofHan and CoolEric's Controversial* Predictions of 2019 (*Controversial results may vary)

[miketheavenger]

@WrathOfHan and @CoolEric I enjoy reading your predicts, but what about Chaos Walking on March 1? I'm guessing it's gonna move because we haven't seen anything for it yet, but has it been officially moved yet?

[The Panda]

That Us prediction is bad.  It’s going over 250m DOM.

[MrGlass2]

16 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

 

Also I think there's a decent chance Glass finishes under Split. If reviews are bad that's where I'll mark my predictions.

10 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

 

https://deadline.com/2018/12/glass-box-office-projection-samuel-l-jackson-m-night-shyamalan-blumhouse-bruce-willis-1202526426/

 

The M. Night Shyamalan-directed sequel to his 2000 title Unbreakable and 2016 film Spilt came on tracking today with a 4-day start that’s around $75M per industry sources. The pic opens on Jan. 18. We hear other tracking services have Glass‘ debut around $50M.

 

Total unaided awareness for Glass —that survey category where those being polled bring up the film’s title without being prompted– is higher than that of Blumhouse/Universal’s Get Out and Split.

[WrathOfHan]

25 minutes ago, miketheavenger said:

@WrathOfHan and @CoolEric I enjoy reading your predicts, but what about Chaos Walking on March 1? I'm guessing it's gonna move because we haven't seen anything for it yet, but has it been officially moved yet?

It’s going under extensive reshoots soon. It isn’t making that date.

 

Just now, MrGlass2 said:

 

 

Bodes well for my prediction.

[That One Girl]

Lame predictions for Us.  None of them going over The Sixth Sense.  Barely controversial.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, That One Guy said:

Lame predictions for Us.  None of them going over The Sixth Sense.  Barely controversial.

We all know Eric is saving his big “holy shit that’s bold” prediction for Little Women.

 

Han’s will probably be Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.

[WrathOfHan]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

We all know Eric is saving his big “holy shit that’s bold” prediction for Little Women.

 

Han’s will probably be Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.

One of quite a few 🤔

[Mulder]

4 hours ago, Napoleon said:

You guys like to set yourselves for disappointment. First Mary Poppins was gonna make $500 million this December, now expecting the same for cheap Wonder Woman cosplay. If it passes $200 million it will be great for a movie Marvel was basically forced to make, yet you will be calling it a flop.

The bare minimum for Captain Marvel is 200 million, while I'm more with CoolEric on it being 300-400 million rather then Han's 500 million, it's not exceedingly crazy especially if it's good.

[nick64]

5 hours ago, Napoleon said:

You guys like to set yourselves for disappointment. First Mary Poppins was gonna make $500 million this December, now expecting the same for cheap Wonder Woman cosplay. If it passes $200 million it will be great for a movie Marvel was basically forced to make, yet you will be calling it a flop.

While I agree $500M is a bit out there, $200M would definitely be a flop. The only ones that adjust lower than that are The Incredible Hulk, which was released when the MCU was barely a thing yet, and Ant-Man, which is only $500K short of the mark. Doctor Strange adjusts to $232M. This should be able to top those for a few reasons. First of all, it’s significant as the first female-led MCU film. With that distinction, if it’s good and only does about half of Wonder Woman, that’s a disappointment. Second of all, since AM and DS, the MCU has only gotten more popular, with six releases in the last three years going over $300M. I can admit those had the benefit of established characters, but this has Endgame intrigue. She’s gonna play a part in the most anticipated movie of all time, and people wanna know what’s up. $300M is reasonable, but anything below $250M would be a letdown. The stakes and scope of this film are too big to be pulling Ant-Man and the Wasp numbers.

 

Also, not sure why you think they were forced to make this. Feige had been wanting this movie since Perlmutter was around, and she’s being positioned as the new leader of the MCU, as well as a key part in establishing the cosmic universe. If they were forced to make a female movie, we probably would only be getting the Black Widow spinoff.

[WrathOfHan]

March 22

 

Five Feet Apart: This one looks very sweet and totally my jam. Love, Simon was the last major teen romance, and it will have been a year since its release when Five Feet Apart comes out. That film made over 40M, and WB’s Everything, Everything from a year prior made 34M. This feels like a solid range for Five Feet Apart. Buzz is there thanks to one half of Zack and Cody being on Riverdale,and this will be a popular choice among teens over spring break. Plus, I am here for Haley Lu Richardson’s rise. 13/45 (3.5x)

 

Greyhound: First off, is this even releasing in March still? A Tom Hanks war drama should have gotten a trailer by now, but this is also Sony here. Without a trailer, it is hard to assess what this could do, but Tom Hanks is probably all I need to know. His recent movies always put up consistent grosses, and based on the plot alone, it sounds like this can hitCaptain Phillips or Sully numbers on another date. If it does end up releasing here, I think it will do Post numbers. 20/80 (4x)

 

The Informer: Ok, I just watched the trailer for this and am very confused. On one hand, it makes more sense than Aviron’s Serenity trailers, but there is way too much going on here. It also does not look any different from a generic crime thriller. Trailer views are pretty decent, but ultimately, this one is going to come down to reviews. I doubt it is anything special. 6/15 (2.5x)

 

Where’d You Go, Bernadette?: This film looks like a big new step for Richard Linklater and unlike anything he has done. It actually looks a bit vanilla, but I can see a bit of appeal for the GA here. The trailer has 7.3M views after a couple weeks, which is really damn impressive. It will probably be a decent movie at the very least given Linklater has not made many duds, so if Annapurna markets it well, it will put up a good gross. 11/44 (4x)

[WrathOfHan]

March 29

 

Captive State: Originally slated to come out in August, Rupert Wyatt’s first film since The Gambler is an interesting one to predict. Buzz is pretty decent so far (I’m trying to go in blind and have not seen any trailers), but ultimately, this will come down to reviews. If they are strong, I can see a total around 40-45M. If it sucks, then it will probably go sub-20M. I will stay in the middle for now. 12/30 (2.5x)

 

Dumbo: This looks to be Disney’s best remake by far next year. Tim Burton is not in his obnoxious mode, and the trailers for this film are very sweet and endearing. I expect a quality product am sure audiences are too. Dumbo is a Disney classic, and although it isn’t in the upper stratosphere for younger generations, every generation is familiar with it. I feel like the amount of family releases over this period is limiting the potential of everything, but expect this to be on the upper end of the spectrum. 60/200 (3.33x)

[Eric Duncan]

March 22

Five Feet Apart: I got the trailer for this in front of Fantastic Beasts, and I was genuinely surprised at how enjoyable and charming this looked. There’s also not much out for teens outside of Captain Marvel, so this could find a comfortable niche for this demographic. A Love, Simon run seems likely here. 12/40 (3.33x)

 

Greyhound: I'm not exactly sure if this is coming out on this release date. We should have gotten a trailer by now. But I'll just put it here anyway. A trailer in January might happen, ya never know. The film, a WWII-set war drama featuring Tom Hanks released in March reminds me of The Monuments Men back in 2014. An adult counterprogrammer early in the year with a famous actor. So, around that number. 20/75 (3.75x)

 

The Informer: Rosamund Pike? Yeah. Joel Kinnaman? No. The lack of starpower and the generic plot makes this seem like a no1curr kind of flick. 6/15 (2.5x)

 

Where’d You Go, Bernadette?: Bit hard to use other Linklater movies since they opened in limited release instead of wide, but this has a cool cast, and potential good reviews should help generate a little bit of interest. Although with Annapurna being Annapurna, who knows what will happen? Probably results slightly better than Tully, although it'll probably be more of a crowd-pleaser. 5/20 (4x)

[Eric Duncan]

March 30

Captive State: Ashton Sanders is coming to sweep me and my indie twink-lovin' ass off my feet (Still love you Chalabae). Anyways, this has a pretty cool concept, and a good cast and crew. The trailers are mysterious, but not quite as effective as something like Us. It'll be a mild hit, but likely a cult classic down the line. 13/40 (3.08x)

 

Dumbo: Disney’s really going all in on live-action remakes this year, and this will be a great kick-off (it also looks like the only one that will be any good ). The trailers are great, Dumbo looks adorable, and it seems like a real crowd pleaser. Views on YouTube are also strong, as the second trailer has already beaten out Mary Poppins Returns in terms of views. It also has baby elephants. That's the best hook for any movie.

 

The downside, however, is the family competition, with Captain Marvel and Shazam surrounding it. But it does have the benefit of being a great option for kids not interested in superheroes. Yes, they do exist. Although Wonder Park could complicate things if it turns out to be a hit. A run similar to Cinderella seems like an obvious thing to go for. 60/205 (3.42x)

[TMP]

These predictions are all so similar outside of CM so far lol

I was expecting a real difference between the two different voices in terms of what they're expecting 🙈🙈🙈

[Brainbug]

.

 

Here was nothing to see.

Edited December 28, 2018 by Brainbug

[Eric Duncan]

5 minutes ago, TMP said:

These predictions are all so similar outside of CM so far lol

I was expecting a real difference between the two different voices in terms of what they're expecting 🙈🙈🙈

Wait for Endgame

[YM!]

Curious to see what you have to say about Shazam.

[nick64]

Lion King shade already 

[Eric Duncan]

April 5

The Best of Enemies: With Queen Taraji and Sam Rockwell in the cast, there could be some interest based on that pairing. The trailer’s effective and interesting enough, so it could work as good drama counterprogramming, especially if reviews are solid. 15/50 (3.33x)

 

Pet Sematary: This is the first film attempting to capitalize on the success of IT. I don’t know what expectations on BOT are, but I feel like it’ll disappoint. The teaser didn’t seem like it caught on at all, and it’s not really that popular of a King story to begin with. Plus with La Llorona two weeks later, this won’t have great legs. Sorry Lithgow 25/65 (2.6x)

 

Shazam!: I've seen a couple of 400M predix thrown around for Shazam here and there. Personally I don't see it. This seems like it’ll be the Ant-Man of the DCEU. Not a bad thing, mind you. It seems more family-oriented than all of the other films, which will help it when it comes to legs. The actual trailer is pretty funny, and the marketing is appealing to both fanboys and families. But I don’t think it will have a giant opening, since I do think some people might find the concept and trailers to be a tad juvenile. It also has a lack of connection to the other DCEU movies. I’d argue stuff like Wonder Woman and Aquaman benefited from being introduced in BvS and JL to familiarize audiences with these interpretations. However, good word and family appeal will really help deliver strong legs a la Ant-Man, and its opening should still be mighty strong. And while Avengers could dampen its late legs, it's still got more or less three weeks all to itself. 80/240 (3x)

[Eric Duncan]

April 12

 

After: Fifty Shades for teens? Gross. Anyways, this is a YA adaptation, from a director I’ve never heard of, with a writer best known for episodes of Mom and Two and a Half Men, and starring a cast of D-listers. This is all yikes. 5/10 (2x)

 

Hellboy: The recent trailer, as well as the “Legendary AF” marketing makes the movie seem like the del Toro movies, but with no soul or charm. So with that said, who exactly is this movie for? Fans of the first two movies won’t care about this reboot, while the brand isn’t anything exciting to general audiences. With Shazam already playing and Avengers down the road, this is going to be lost in the shuffle, just like The Golden Army. Sorry David Harbour. 15/35 (2.33x)

 

Little: Will Packer’s been a consistent success-maker for a few years, and the reverse Big/13 Going on 30 premise seems cute. It won’t do amazing, but it will find a decent-sized audience and be good counterprogramming. 18/60 (3.33x)

 

Missing Link: It’s Annapurna’s first animated release, as well as Laika’s first film free from Focus’ clutches. I don’t see this doing much better than their previous offerings, especially with Annapurna being Annapurna and the mediocre first trailer. Add in stop-motion, and the film seems like it will be more diminishing returns. Sorry Travis Knight. At least Bumblebee’s doing okay for ya. 10/35 (3.5x)