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The Good Dinosaur | Peter Sohn | BR/DVD release 2-23-2016 | Pixar's first BO flop

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Okay. In reality...75M 3-Day/89M 5-Day 319M DOM Gross

Umm... no way Disney's big Thanksgiving release only does $14 million over its first two days of release  :lol:

 

$54.5 million/$78 million 5 day/$253 million DOM 

 

That's a little more realistic. KFP3 and Star Wars Episode VII will hurt its potential family audience. 

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Umm... no way Disney's big Thanksgiving release only does $14 million over its first two days of release :lol:

$54.5 million/$78 million 5 day/$253 million DOM

That's a little more realistic. KFP3 and Star Wars Episode VII will hurt its potential family audience.

Ohmygod I keep forgetting how close all these movies are to Star Wars. This, MockingJay, Martain etc. I wonder how much of an affect SW will have on these movies' box office.
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Umm... no way Disney's big Thanksgiving release only does $14 million over its first two days of release  :lol:

Right, $14 million on Wednesday alone would be more realistic. Thanksgiving Day itself is typically less in the modern era, but over $20 million total should be easy, especially for a Pixar movie.

 

$54.5 million/$78 million 5 day/$253 million DOM 

 

That's a little more realistic.

It definitely is, although I would say that generally speaking the 4.64 OW multiplier this implies is very much on the high side for a Pixar movie in the modern era. Not that above-average multipliers are anything unusual for their movies, but the strength of the Pixar brand (despite their mediocre efforts of late) usually causes some front-loading, and 4.64X would approach Finding Nemo territory in terms of legs. Not that this couldn't happen, but you'd basically be predicting a minor phenomenon that was underestimated by the public and Pixar's fan base alike, and personally I don't think that's too likely, going just by numbers and trends here (because we have so little else). The total amount seems reasonable, but I'd expect a bigger OW unless the advertising absolutely sucks.

 

KFP3 and Star Wars Episode VII will hurt its potential family audience.

Well, this is one scenario in which you may potentially get your smaller opening and stronger legs, provided that the movie is really good and resonates with the audience at least as much as its competition (wouldn't be difficult to believe if Pixar really is back on their game, but that still remains to be seen).

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Ohmygod I keep forgetting how close all these movies are to Star Wars. This, MockingJay, Martain etc. I wonder how much of an affect SW will have on these movies' box office.

The Martian will be fine if it gets great reviews. It's a potential Oscar contender. 

 

Catching Fire did just fine with Thor 2, Frozen and Hobbit 2. Mockingjay 1 will do just fine with Hobbit 3, Exodus, Interstellar and Big Hero 6. No reason Mockingjay 2 can't handle Bond 24, Star Wars Episode VII and MI5.

 

Revision for Good Dinosaur

$71 million 3 day/$100.5 million 5 day

$237 million DOM total 

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Yeah November-December next year is crazy.

Bond, Mockingjay, Good Dinosaur, Star Wars, Mission Impossible, Kung Too Panda.

Honestly i might have to skip out on Star Wars and or Kung foo Panda/Good Dino

 

Kung Fu Panda is definitely the thing that does not belong in that group. If one of those movies is going to get lost in the shuffle, it'll be Kung Fu Panda.

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Kung Fu Panda is definitely the thing that does not belong in that group. If one of those movies is going to get lost in the shuffle, it'll be Kung Fu Panda.

For me Star Wars will probably be the first to go if I can't see all of them. Then Either Bond/Good Dino/Kung Foo Pwnda/. Mockingjay part 2 and M:I 5 are tge must, must sees for me.

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For me Star Wars will probably be the first to go if I can't see all of them. Then Either Bond/Good Dino/Kung Foo Pwnda/. Mockingjay part 2 and M:I 5 are tge must, must sees for me.

 

I think for you that's probably accurate. I think for the box office, it'll be more along the lines of what I said.

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For me Star Wars will probably be the first to go if I can't see all of them. Then Either Bond/Good Dino/Kung Foo Pwnda/. Mockingjay part 2 and M:I 5 are tge must, must sees for me.

 

Except for just about everybody else in the world they would give up all of those other movies just to see 10 minutes of S7ar Wars.

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Except for just about everybody else in the world they would give up all of those other movies just to see 10 minutes of S7ar Wars.

 

I'd probably watch Mockingjay and Bond over Star Wars. Never been a huge fan of SW. 

 

On topic: I'm really excited for this film, missed Pixar this year (and their latest films haven't been amazing) so hopefully we get too great films.

Edited by Breakspear
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