Weekend Thread (1/25-1/27): Weekend Estimates: Glass 19M l Upside 12.2M l Aquaman 7.3M l Kid WWB King 7.2M l Spider-Verse: 5.5M l Green Book 5.2M l Serenity 4.8M

[Zakiyyah6]

I think this Oscar talk is really off topic...

[Cooper Legion]

10 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

I think this Oscar talk is really off topic...

That’s what happens when there’s nothing worth talking about on topic   

 

Unless you want to do a deep dive on whether Ralph will hit 200M or something.

[Zakiyyah6]

People can discuss whatever they want of course I just don't get it when we have a perfectly good Oscar section...

[JB33]

This weekend and next weekend are going to be a slog.... 

 

I guess we're due after late August ended up being better than usual. Next weekend in particular I expect to be the lowest grossing weekend in quite some time.

[El Gato]

2 hours ago, James said:

To be fair, this is how the worldwide list looks like:

 

HP8 - 1.341 B

TDKR - 1.084 B

Aquaman - 1.077 B

The Hobbit 1 - 1.021 B

TDK - 1.004 B

HP1 - 975 M

HP7 - 960 M

The Hobbit 2 - 958 M

The Hobbit 3 - 956 M

HP5 - 940 M

HP6 - 934 M

HP4 - 897 M

HP2 - 879 M

BvS - 673 M

Inception - 828 M

WW - 821 M

FB1 - 814 M

HP3 - 796 M

Suicide Squad  - 746M

Matrix- 742 M

 

Their WW top 10 is made of: 4 Wizarding World movies, 3 Hobbit movies, 3 DC movies.

Their WW top 20 is made of: 9 Wizarding World movies, 6 DC movies, 3 Hobbit movies, Inception and Matrix.

 

DC is big but aside from Aquaman (which was lightning in a bottle) none of the post-Nolan DCEU movies have truly been huge OS. And as it is obvious by this list (and the general WW list), that if you want to push for the big leagues you need to do phenomenal OS (unless you are SW). Hollywood is a worldwide business. DOM is just a country (or two, Canada being included).

Yeah, but notice where the recent Wizarding World films are landing. They're either at the bottom or missed the top 20 altogether. Middle Earth is also a finished franchise. 

 

DC is still active, and 4 of their 5 recent releases have landed in the top 20. I wouldn't be surprised to see DC knock the bottom two Wizarding World films out of the top 20 with WW84 and The Batman. Throw in Blue Beetle, Aquaman 2 and other surprise DC hits and we'll be looking at half the list being DC. Guarantee that that list is going to look very different in the next few years. 

[Jonwo]

21 minutes ago, El Gato said:

DC is still active, and 4 of their 5 recent releases have landed in the top 20. I wouldn't be surprised to see DC knock the bottom two Wizarding World films out of the top 20 with WW84 and The Batman. Throw in Blue Beetle, Aquaman 2 and other surprise DC hits and we'll be looking at half the list being DC. Guarantee that that list is going to look very different in the next few years. 

I imagine domestically we'll still get the odd sleeper hit like an It or American Sniper.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

5 hours ago, Jake Gittes said:

DDL in Lincoln the one recent biopic performance I actually thought deserved to win tbh. But that's DDL for you. He made it a lived-in performance instead of just showy.

I love how DDL's win for Lincoln gets lumped in as biopic mimicry, what was he copying exactly, statues? It's not like he could just Youtube clips of Honest Abe for research. And McConaugheyheyhey wasn't playing a well known person, it was more about the weight loss transformation and playing someone who suffered.

 

Speaking of Matthew, I guess we should have realized there was only so much to the McConaissance when he kept doing those Lincoln commercials. But hasn't really had a huge box office hit since Interstellar, so it makes sense to keep the money flowing some other way. 

 

I hope Deadline has the demo breakdown of the Serenity CinemaScore: sometimes their Sunday writeup will say what grade it got from young people vs. older people, women vs. men, with Mother I remember they said Darren Aronofsky fans gave it a C+ (though the overall score was still the dreaded F). 

Edited January 27, 2019 by BoxOfficeChica

[Eric the Marxist]

12 minutes ago, BoxOfficeChica said:

 

Speaking of Matthew, I guess we should have realized there was only so much to the McConaissance when he kept doing those Lincoln commercials. But hasn't really had a huge box office hit since Interstellar, so it makes sense to keep the money flowing some other way. 

 

[YM!]

1 hour ago, El Gato said:

Yeah, but notice where the recent Wizarding World films are landing. They're either at the bottom or missed the top 20 altogether. Middle Earth is also a finished franchise. 

 

DC is still active, and 4 of their 5 recent releases have landed in the top 20. I wouldn't be surprised to see DC knock the bottom two Wizarding World films out of the top 20 with WW84 and The Batman. Throw in Blue Beetle, Aquaman 2 and other surprise DC hits and we'll be looking at half the list being DC. Guarantee that that list is going to look very different in the next few years. 

Pokémon or Brokémon

[YM!]

Y’know with Glass underperforming and lack of big movies since the holidays, I’m starting to think both Lego 2 and Alita may just breakout as I’ve been getting a lot of ads for both. The former around the $180M-$190M range and the latter near $150M maybe $200M.

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Y’know with Glass underperforming and lack of big movies since the holidays, I’m starting to think both Lego 2 and Alita may just breakout as I’ve been getting a lot of ads for both. The former around the $180M-$190M range and the latter near $150M maybe $200M.

The fact we didn't get official tracking this week for the President's Day/Valentine's Day weekend openers this past week (when it's always released three weeks in advance) leads me to believe that that weekend is gonna be on the slow side this year.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

17 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Oh right, I always forget he was in that. Not live action, but a hit is a hit.

[YM!]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

The fact we didn't get official tracking this week for the President's Day/Valentine's Day weekend openers this past week (when it's always released three weeks in advance) leads me to believe that that weekend is gonna be on the slow side this year.

That is a little discouraging to say the least.

[filmlover]

6 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

That is a little discouraging to say the least.

Looking at what that weekend has to offer this year (Alita, Isn't It Romantic, Happy Death Day 2U), it's not entirely surprising.

[Eric the Marxist]

10 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

That is a little discouraging to say the least.

At least Lego will twopeat. 

[GraceRandolph]

ASIB better not surpass venom. I need that trash out of the top 10

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, GraceRandolph said:

ASIB better not surpass venom. I need that trash out of the top 10

[Gamera]

Can't understand how Olivia Coleman isn't dominating this awards season.  IMO, she clearly gave the best performance.

 

Gaga was good, but Glenn Close will win because she's "overdue" and will give a really political speech.

[kitik]

 

3 hours ago, JB33 said:

This weekend and next weekend are going to be a slog.... 

 

I guess we're due after late August ended up being better than usual. Next weekend in particular I expect to be the lowest grossing weekend in quite some time.

 

What the hell happened to the box office? I guess this is the first January in a while with no uber-giant holdovers from December.

 

 

 

1 hour ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Y’know with Glass underperforming and lack of big movies since the holidays, I’m starting to think both Lego 2 and Alita may just breakout as I’ve been getting a lot of ads for both. The former around the $180M-$190M range and the latter near $150M maybe $200M.

 

 

Yeah, there's definitely the chance for something to catch on. The worse everything else does, the better something will do. The only question is what that something is. Lego? Alita? Captain Marvel? Are people waiting for Avengers?

 

[AniNate]

Lego should do fine if the delirious reactions of the kids in my screening audience were any indication