filmlover Posted September 2, 2019 Author Share Posted September 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, Valonqar said: Zelly and Scarjo are not missing with these reviews and narrative, comeback for Zelly and banner year + likely 2 picture nominees for Scarlett. That's 2 spots. Jury's out on whether Streep goes Lead or Supporting so see if third will be taken and only 2 left or 3. Isn't it already confirmed Streep is likely going Supporting? Given the reviews for The Laundromat aren't that great they probably think she stands a better chance there than in Lead, which is looking quite packed. And on that note, first predictions: Cynthia Erivo, Harriet Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story Saoirse Ronan, Little Women Charlize Theron, Bombshell Renee Zellweger, Judy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 It'll be interesting to see where Bombshell lands, but director Jay Roach doesn't inspire a lot of confidence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted September 2, 2019 Author Share Posted September 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Mr Pastaffelees said: It'll be interesting to see where Bombshell lands, but director Jay Roach doesn't inspire a lot of confidence. He managed to get a nomination out of Cranston for Trumbo four years ago (even if that was probably more Cranston still having that Breaking Bad afterglow attached to him more than the actual movie itself), and that movie also did inexplicably well at SAG as well so we can probably pencil this in for that. I think even if Bombshell manages a Vice-level reception, Theron could make it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4815162342 Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 1 hour ago, Mr Pastaffelees said: It'll be interesting to see where Bombshell lands, but director Jay Roach doesn't inspire a lot of confidence. I mean let's not forget or ignore that the guy has made three acclaimed movies for HBO that Bombshell will likely have the same tone/style as. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoxOfficeFangrl Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 Well, ScarJo is off to an eventful start to her Oscar campaigning... Kinda wondering if it will help, as there is likely a "silent majority" in AMPAS who agrees with her about Woody Allen? I'm thinking of the Honest Oscar Ballot person who said they voted for Green Book because they felt the attacks were unfair and no one was going to tell them what to do. Film Twitter will drag Scarlett all season but a lot of older Academy members will feel she did nothing wrong and throw her their support. OTOH, who benefits the most in Best Actress from a ScarJo stumble? I'm thinking Renee or Saoirse, though we aren't even one week into September, so everything can change... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted September 5, 2019 Author Share Posted September 5, 2019 (edited) 2 hours ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said: Well, ScarJo is off to an eventful start to her Oscar campaigning... Kinda wondering if it will help, as there is likely a "silent majority" in AMPAS who agrees with her about Woody Allen? I'm thinking of the Honest Oscar Ballot person who said they voted for Green Book because they felt the attacks were unfair and no one was going to tell them what to do. Film Twitter will drag Scarlett all season but a lot of older Academy members will feel she did nothing wrong and throw her their support. OTOH, who benefits the most in Best Actress from a ScarJo stumble? I'm thinking Renee or Saoirse, though we aren't even one week into September, so everything can change... Honestly if Little Women ends up a major contender like everyone is perhaps expecting it to (key word being "if") I could see a situation where Ronan takes it since it would be her fourth nom and she was probably #2 behind McDormand two years ago (she won the Globe and none of the other nominees that year really had that much passion to them). Renee winning would be a super sweet way of cementing her comeback, but I wouldn't bet on it happening when she's almost certain to be her film's lone nomination. Edited September 5, 2019 by filmlover Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoxOfficeFangrl Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, filmlover said: Honestly if Little Women ends up a major contender like everyone is perhaps expecting it to (key word being "if") I could see a situation where Ronan takes it since it would be her fourth nom and she was probably #2 behind McDormand two years ago (she won the Globe and none of the other nominees that year really had that much passion to them). Renee winning would be a super sweet way of cementing her comeback, but I wouldn't bet on it happening when she's almost certain to be her film's lone nomination. Back when Denzel or Cate Blanchett "only" had Supporting Oscars, you had cinephiles saying they were greats and what a crime of cinema it was, that they hadn't won in lead (yet). I just don't get that sense there's the same sentiment towards Renee Zellweger, maybe people wish she'd won for something different than Cold Mountain, but there's not the same common feeling of her being under-rewarded by Oscar overall. Little Women is iconic but I wonder if voters will see Sersh playing a young woman adjusting to growing up, again, and kinda shrug about it? Obviously we haven't seen the movie yet, beyond that, AMPAS voters might not take to it. Edited September 5, 2019 by BoxOfficeFangrl 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted September 5, 2019 Author Share Posted September 5, 2019 31 minutes ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said: Back when Denzel or Cate Blanchett "only" had Supporting Oscars, you had cinephiles saying they were greats and what a crime of cinema it was, that they hadn't won in lead (yet). I just don't get that sense there's the same sentiment towards Renee Zellweger, maybe people wish she'd won for something different than Cold Mountain, but there's not the same common feeling of her being under-rewarded by Oscar overall. Little Women is iconic but I wonder if voters will see Sersh playing a young woman adjusting to growing up, again, and kinda shrug about it? Obviously we haven't seen the movie yet, beyond that, AMPAS voters might not take to it. In fairness, Zellweger's resume since then has been on the thin side, especially this whole decade with a six year break from acting (perhaps even longer, considering 2010's Case 39 was actually shot in 2006). I think the ScarJo/Allen stuff will blow over completely sooner than later unless she harpoons her chances by making more dumb statements as the season goes on (imagine if she said "I can and should be able to play any role" while Cynthia Erivo was sitting next to her during one of the roundtables lmao). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 Maybe Awkwafina can pull the win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted September 5, 2019 Author Share Posted September 5, 2019 1 minute ago, The Panda said: Maybe Awkwafina can pull the win She needs to get nominated first. Hopefully the individual critic awards will pull through for her. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 Awkwafina ain't winning for the movie where she's upstaged by the actress who plays the grandmother. If gaga couldn't win for the movie that was much bigger and nobody upstaged her in it, Awkwafina certainly won't. Nomination will be her reward if it happens. Farewell was a platform hit but didn't expend very well. Overreactions to Scarlett's opinion on Allen are LOL. It's only Sep 5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM! Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 3 minutes ago, Valonqar said: Awkwafina ain't winning for the movie where she's upstaged by the actress who plays the grandmother. If gaga couldn't win for the movie that was much bigger and nobody upstaged her in it, Awkwafina certainly won't. Nomination will be her reward if it happens. Farewell was a platform hit but didn't expend very well. Overreactions to Scarlett's opinion on Allen are LOL. It's only Sep 5. I'll go ahead and say that I don't think Awkwafina was upstaged by any means. The grandmother does deserve a nomination, but Awkwafina pulls out a very impressive performance; very restrained, very natural; it never feels like she's giving a performance. I'd say she deserves to be nominated just by her own merit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 I'm sure she deserves to be nominated but perception based on reviews is that granny is the MVP. You don't win if someone else is the MVP in your own movie. That's one of main reasons why nobody has Leo as a potential winner. Brad is OUATIH MVP. We know from Waltz and Ali wins that recent winning doesn't mean shit. so Leo could technically win for the acclaimed role that industry relates to. But Brad is singled out as MVP so that's a stumbling block. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrPink Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 Eh, Awkwafina is the MVP. She's got the trickiest balance to work with and the most difficult role and she does a beautiful job with it. It's just that the Grandmother was an unknown, and thus a big surprise. Not that I expect Awkwafina to win. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 Critics tend to overhype unknowns. It's all down to campaigning. if Awkwafina plays her cards right, she should be in. Wouldn't she be the first Asian actress competing in that category? That's a good narrative. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM! Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 (edited) 22 minutes ago, Valonqar said: Critics tend to overhype unknowns. It's all down to campaigning. if Awkwafina plays her cards right, she should be in. Wouldn't she be the first Asian actress competing in that category? That's a good narrative. While it is a technicality, Merle Oberon, an Eurasian actress, was nominated for Best Actress for The Dark Angel in 1935. Bewilderingly, there has not been an Asian-ethnic individual nominated in the category since then. Either one of Awkwafina or Zhao Shuzhen would be the first acting nominee of Asian descent since Rinko Kikuchi was nominated for Babel in 2006. A win for either of them would be the first acting winner of Asian descent since Cambodian refugee Haing S. Ngor won Best Supporting Actor for The Killing Fields. (The story of how his win turned into a story of fatal misfortune is a story for another time.) On the Golden Globe side of things, Constance Wu, as a nominee in the Actress for a Comedy/Musical category, was the first nominee of Asian descent in that specific category since 1974 when Yvonne Elliman was nominated for Jesus Christ Superstar. I'm not sure about the Drama category. The Oscar information comes from Wikipedia, which is oftentimes accurate in terms of the 'who won the Oscar' type of information. I checked another site to see if Wikipedia was leaving off Asian Americans for some reason; something tells me Wikipedia has the list of all of the Asian-ethnic actors in general. So you're right. Awkwafina being the first Asian Best Actress nominee since 1935 is a very good narrative that could (and arguably should) lead to her being nominated. Edited September 5, 2019 by SLAM! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 Oh, wow, I didn't know all that! Thanks! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoxOfficeFangrl Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 21 hours ago, filmlover said: In fairness, Zellweger's resume since then has been on the thin side, especially this whole decade with a six year break from acting (perhaps even longer, considering 2010's Case 39 was actually shot in 2006). I think the ScarJo/Allen stuff will blow over completely sooner than later unless she harpoons her chances by making more dumb statements as the season goes on (imagine if she said "I can and should be able to play any role" while Cynthia Erivo was sitting next to her during one of the roundtables lmao). I mean, considering that Scarlett's leading with "I believe Woody Allen" in September and her history, the odds are good she will run afoul of Film Twitter and be "cancelled" multiple times by next February. Again, I'm not sure how much it will matter to Oscar voters. 11 hours ago, Valonqar said: Awkwafina ain't winning for the movie where she's upstaged by the actress who plays the grandmother. If gaga couldn't win for the movie that was much bigger and nobody upstaged her in it, Awkwafina certainly won't. Nomination will be her reward if it happens. Farewell was a platform hit but didn't expend very well. A huge mitigating factor with Best Actress last year is that everyone knew Lady Gaga had Best Original Song in the bag, probably even before the movie was released. Even if the Academy had showered A Star Is Born with wins, were voters really going to give a singer moonlighting as an actress two Oscars in one night? They love a breakout ingenue in this category, sometimes over more acclaimed performances, but Emma Stone and JLaw for example didn't have two nominations in the same year. It made that Actress race completely different. If The Farewell were an actual entry as a foreign language, I mean, an international film, in a way Awkwafina would be in a much better position to get nominated. $16 million (so far) for a movie mostly not in English is a really good result these days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 Farewell is still in conversation which is good considering when it was released and competition emerging from festivals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted September 8, 2019 Share Posted September 8, 2019 awkwafina cynthia erivo scarjo saoirse ronan renee zellweger dunno who i think will win. i'll see what the reactions to Harriet say. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
