Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom | December 22, 2023 | David Leslie Johnson-McGoldrick (co-writer of first film) returns

[WittyUsername]

1 hour ago, dudalb said:

I think WB has lowered expectations for Aqua 2, but are not writing it off. They spent too much for that. You do not throw away a 200 Million dollar movie. 

Yes, I think Warners now probably considers Wokna to be it most likely cash cow for Christmas 2023., but they are throwing away Aqua 2. I suspect they will push it pretty big after Wonka opens.

Marketing is another reason hwy I think opening two big ticket films so closely together is not a good move. Nakes marketing tougher.

That’s not really relevant to what I asked. 

[KC7]

Deadline:

‘Aquaman And The Lost Kingdom’ Splashes On Tracking With $50M-$60M Opening Over Christmas Stretch – Early Box Office Look

[PlatnumRoyce]

17 minutes ago, KC7 said:

Deadline:

‘Aquaman And The Lost Kingdom’ Splashes On Tracking With $50M-$60M Opening Over Christmas Stretch – Early Box Office Look

Currently Aquaman 2 in unaided awareness (that part of polling whereby respondents cite a movie they want to see without being prodded) is solid for guys, and ahead of that for The Marvels, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 and The Flash.

 

 

So it's bad for Women despite the first film's over-indexing? The guys caveat is weird and feels like they're playing hide the football. 

Edited November 30, 2023 by PlatnumRoyce

[Arlborn]

44 minutes ago, KC7 said:

Deadline:

‘Aquaman And The Lost Kingdom’ Splashes On Tracking With $50M-$60M Opening Over Christmas Stretch – Early Box Office Look

Solid numbers, Deadline though.

[KC7]

Meanwhile, Hollywood Reporter:

 

‘Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom’ Tracking for Troubled $40M-$50M Christmas Opening

[RamblinRed]

10 minutes ago, KC7 said:

Meanwhile, Hollywood Reporter:

 

‘Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom’ Tracking for Troubled $40M-$50M Christmas Opening

The title is more bullish than the article. The article says early tracking at $40M for the 4-day weekend with a range of 36-44.

They then mention WB providing a $50M projection.

 

 

[Cappoedameron]

those are absolutely delusional numbers sorry.

[dudalb]

3 hours ago, Cappoedameron said:

those are absolutely delusional numbers sorry.

In which way delusional.?

Too high or too low?

And compared to how some other big budget CBM"s have done recently, it is certaily within the realm of possiblity.

SOme people just will not admit that CBM's are no longer the guaranteed big money makers they once were.

[DInky]

8 minutes ago, dudalb said:

In which way delusional.?

Too high or too low?

And compared to how some other big budget CBM"s have done recently, it is certaily within the realm of possiblity.

SOme people just will not admit that CBM's are no longer the guaranteed big money makers they once were.

 

Too high. According to tracking Aquaman OW will end up in the high teens or low-mid 20s.

[HummingLemon496]

Bear: 2.9*5.3=$15.37M OW

Middle: 3.5*5.5=$19.25M OW

Bull: 3.9*6.0=$23.40M OW

 

 

Edited November 30, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[HummingLemon496]

25 minutes ago, DInky said:

 

Too high. According to tracking Aquaman OW will end up in the high teens or low-mid 20s.

If it's poorly reviewed, this could open lower than WW84 which was during peak pandemic and also on HBO Max 

Edited November 30, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[dudalb]

1 minute ago, DInky said:

 

Too high. According to tracking Aquaman OW will end up in the high teens or low-mid 20s.

Problem is different tracking says different things.

But even a 50 Million opoening is not good news for a 200 Million plus budget movie. "Solid"" my butt. "Solid" has become a term fanboys use to put a favorable spin on less then impressive numbers.

[HummingLemon496]

1 minute ago, dudalb said:

Problem is different tracking says different things.

But even a 50 Million opoening is not good news for a 200 Million plus budget movie. "Solid"" my butt. "Solid" has become a term fanboys use to put a favorable spin on less then impressive numbers.

It's not gonna open anywhere near $50M but if it did that would actually be pretty solid given the Christmas legs. 

[DInky]

1 minute ago, dudalb said:

Problem is different tracking says different things.

But even a 50 Million opoening is not good news for a 200 Million plus budget movie. "Solid"" my butt. "Solid" has become a term fanboys use to put a favorable spin on less then impressive numbers.

 

The first Aquaman opened to only 67M domestic and ended up with 335M. So 50M would actually be a solid opening for the sequel considering the climate we're in right now.

[dudalb]

1 minute ago, HummingLemon496 said:

It's not gonna open anywhere near $50M but if it did that would actually be pretty solid given the Christmas legs. 

But sill would mean with a 400 Million break even point it would barely break even. And WB needs a big money maker.

And I still miantian Solid has become, in reference to box office, a vague and useless term.

 

[HummingLemon496]

1 minute ago, dudalb said:

But sill would mean with a 400 Million break even point it would barely break even. And WB needs a big money maker.

And I still miantian Solid has become, in reference to box office, a vague and useless term.

 

$50M OW would probably mean a $625M+ worldwide finish. 

[Maggie]

9 minutes ago, dudalb said:

 

And I still miantian Solid has become, in reference to box office, a vague and useless term.

 

Agreed. Shit is solid

Edited November 30, 2023 by Maggie

[DInky]

4 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

$50M OW would probably mean a $625M+ worldwide finish. 

 

Of course, that's assuming that Christmas legs for CBMs (and movies in general) are still on par with what we're used to. I wouldn't be surprised if even some Christmas releases begin to collapse in the coming years.

[HummingLemon496]

Still sticking to my $19M OW/$85M DOM/$250M WW prediction. CBMs are collapsing.

Edited November 30, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[HummingLemon496]

Just now, DInky said:

 

Of course, that's assuming that Christmas legs for CBMs (and movies in general) are still on par with what we're used to. I wouldn't be surprised if even some Christmas releases begin to collapse in the coming years.

Yeah I'm generous that this would've had legs on par with the first in the hypothetical reality in which in opened to $50M