Weekend Thread (3/1/2019 - 3/3/2019) - Weekend Estimates - Page 19.

[LonePirate]

Defying almost all (if not all) predictions, The Upside crossed a 5x multiplier and is now sitting at a 5.05x. That is very impressive considering it did not have the benefit of the Christmas-New Year’s holiday window or summer weekdays or awards buzz. In fact, given how it was competing against the Oscar nominated films during its run, those legs are amazing.

[sfran43]

 

Edited March 4, 2019 by sfran43

[sfran43]

 

[a2k]

5 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

Defying almost all (if not all) predictions, The Upside crossed a 5x multiplier and is now sitting at a 5.05x. That is very impressive considering it did not have the benefit of the Christmas-New Year’s holiday window or summer weekdays or awards buzz. In fact, given how it was competing against the Oscar nominated films during its run, those legs are amazing.

so true. it's multiplier won't be that far from ITSV (5.30x right now, 190 gives 5.37x).

106.9 will give UPSIDE 5.25x (currently 102.8 after 2.0 weekend).

[a2k]

AQM 0.543m away from beating SMH (334.201)

 

2019/03/01

21

$458,206

-40%

434

$1,056

$333,658,285

11

 

Despite CMARV that's a lock.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Stamina update on the Top 10 domestic movies >$200M (2015-2019):

 

Spoiler

Top 10 Highest Domestic Grossing Movie >$200M (2015 – 2019)	90% of Gross on Day	Multiplier (DG ÷ FW)	Domestic Gross	First Weekend	Release Month	Rank
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice	18	1.99	$330.4M	$166.0M	Mar.	#8 (2016)
Justice League	23	2.44	$229.0M	$93.8M	Nov.	#10 (2017)
Captain America: Civil War	23	2.28	$408.1M	$179.1M	May	#3 (2016)
Star Wars: The Last Jedi	23	2.82	$620.2M	$220.0M	Dec.	#1 (2017)
Furious 7	24	2.40	$353.0M	$147.2M	Apr.	#5 (2015)
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story	25	3.43	$532.2M	$155.1M	Dec.	#1 (2016)
Avengers: Age of Ultron	26	2.40	$459.0M	$191.3M	May	#3 (2015)
It	28	2.65	$327.5M	$123.4M	Sep.	#7 (2017)
Spectre	29	2.84	$200.1M	$70.4M	Nov.	#10 (2015)
Thor: Ragnarok	29	2.57	$315.1M	$122.7M	Nov.	#8 (2017)
Deadpool 2	29	2.54	$318.5M	$125.5M	May	#6 (2018)
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom	29	2.82	$417.7M	$148.0M	Jun.	#4 (2018)
Finding Dory	29	3.60	$486.3M	$135.1M	Jun.	#2 (2016)
Suicide Squad	30	2.43	$325.1M	$133.7M	Aug.	#9 (2016)
Aquaman*	30	4.92	$333.7M	$67.9M	Dec.	#5 (2018)
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2	30	2.66	$389.8M	$146.5M	May	#5 (2017)
Avengers: Infinity War	30	2.63	$678.8M	$257.7M	Apr.	#2 (2018)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens	30	3.78	$936.7M	$248.0M	Dec.	#1 (2015)
Ant-Man and the Wasp	31	2.86	$216.6M	$75.8M	Jul.	#9 (2018)
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – P2	31	2.74	$281.7M	$102.7M	Nov.	#7 (2015)
Minions	31	2.90	$336.0M	$115.7M	Jul.	#6 (2015)
Deadpool	31	2.74	$363.1M	$132.4M	Feb.	#6 (2016)
Beauty and the Beast	31	2.88	$504.0M	$174.8M	Mar.	#2 (2017)
Jurassic World	31	3.12	$652.3M	$208.8M	Jun.	#2 (2015)
Cinderella	32	2.96	$201.2M	$67.9M	Mar.	#9 (2015)
Sing	32	7.67	$270.4M	$35.3M	Dec.	#10 (2016)
Mission: Impossible – Fallout	36	3.60	$220.2M	$61.2M	Jul.	#8 (2018)
Spider-Man: Homecoming	36	2.86	$334.2M	$117.0M	Jul.	#6 (2017)
Incredibles 2	36	3.33	$608.6M	$182.7M	Jun.	#3 (2018)
Despicable Me 3	37	3.65	$264.6M	$72.4M	Jun.	#9 (2017)
The Secret Life of Pets	37	3.53	$368.4M	$104.4M	Jul.	#4 (2016)
Black Panther	38	3.47	$700.1M	$202.0M	Feb.	#1 (2018)
Inside Out	39	3.94	$356.5M	$90.4M	Jun.	#4 (2015)
The Jungle Book	39	3.53	$364.0M	$103.3M	Apr.	#5 (2016)
Wonder Woman	41	4.00	$412.6M	$103.3M	Jun.	#3 (2017)
Dr. Seuss' The Grinch	42	4.00	$270.6M	$67.6M	Nov.	#7 (2018)
The Martian	44	4.21	$228.4M	$54.3M	Oct.	#8 (2015)
Zootopia	45	4.55	$341.3M	$75.1M	Mar.	#7 (2016)
Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle	54	11.18	$404.5M	$36.2M	Dec.	#4 (2017)
Bohemian Rhapsody*	65	4.20	$214.5M	$51.1M	Nov.	#10 (2018)
average of table	33	3.48
median of table	31	2.93
* highlighted in yellow: numbers are not final / still in theaters
display of dollars rounded to nearest hundred thousand
numbers current as of March 3, 2019

 

Release Month	Average Multiplier	Median Multiplier	Release Month	Average Multiplier	Median Multiplier
January	2.88	2.66	July	3.30	3.22
February	2.81	2.73	August	3.22	3.00
March	3.02	2.89	September	2.87	2.75
April	2.76	2.65	October	3.02	2.75
May	2.95	2.82	November	3.43	3.23
June	3.13	3.01	December	5.45	4.76
all (1025 movies)				3.21	2.93
excludes 2018 releases
highest month in blue; lowest month in red numbers from top openings (2008-2017) as of August 16, 2018

 

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[a2k]

AQM should go past 1145 ww

 

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$333,658,285	29.2%
+ Foreign:	$808,200,000	70.8%
= Worldwide:	$1,141,858,285

 

This week it will cross 850 WW-China. It's 849+ atm.

Edited March 4, 2019 by a2k

[a2k]

Quote

Also in China, Fox holdover Alita: Battle Angel had a 62% drop from last week’s opening, falling to No. 2 with $24.2M in the session. This brings Alita‘s local total to $112.1M, and there is not much time left before her wings are clipped by the arrival of Captain Marvel on Friday. Alita was nevertheless the No. 2 movie internationally this session with $40.4M in 81 markets and with some strong holds in major plays. The global cume on the pricey pic is now $350M.

ALITA 40.4 OS weekend and 7.2 Dom weekend. I think it's opened in all markets.

 

15 more Dom and 70 more OS will give 350+15+70 = 435 WW.

(That could be tough though as 24 came from China out of that 40.4 and CMARV will cut the legs there. But it has good wom imo and could be steady after an initial hit in other markets.)

Edited March 4, 2019 by a2k

[titanic2187]

4 hours ago, sfran43 said:

Green Book is back in the running now that Fighting With My Family retook the 5th spot!

 

So, green book come down to #6 in actual....

[Avatree]

11 hours ago, a2k said:

ALITA 40.4 OS weekend and 7.2 Dom weekend. I think it's opened in all markets.

 

15 more Dom and 70 more OS will give 350+15+70 = 435 WW.

(That could be tough though as 24 came from China out of that 40.4 and CMARV will cut the legs there. But it has good wom imo and could be steady after an initial hit in other markets.)

Remove China and it made 16M, not sure 70M is realistic. Has it opened in Japan yet?

 

Seems it will finish under Warcraft. Balance has been restored.

[KP1025]

Just now, Avatree said:

Remove China and it made 16M, not sure 70M is realistic. Has it opened in Japan yet?

 

Seems it will finish under Warcraft. Balance has been restored.

Yes, Japan opened last week with China. Japan will add another $4 million or so for a total around $10 million.

[RealLyre]

27 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

Yes, Japan opened last week with China. Japan will add another $4 million or so for a total around $10 million.

pretty poor numbers for a movie that's a Manga adaptation 🤔

[chuck0]

Just now, RealLyre said:

pretty poor numbers for a movie that's a Manga adaptation 🤔

Yeah, the japanese BO returns are pretty disappointing. Japan has never been into western Anime/Manga adaptions though so not completely unexpected.

[Avatree]

54 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

pretty poor numbers for a movie that's a Manga adaptation 🤔

Not really, Japanese audiences don't really like Hollywood versions of Japanese anime/manga. Take a look at Pikachu predictions in Japan thread. 

[a2k]

1 hour ago, Avatree said:

Remove China and it made 16M, not sure 70M is realistic. Has it opened in Japan yet?

 

Seems it will finish under Warcraft. Balance has been restored.

yeah i gave another 24 from china (same as the weekend) and 46 from os-china after 16 weekend. that os-china does look optimistic. 420-425 ww seems more realistic than 435 ww. Rampage did that last year but with much smaller budget and higher dom.