Spider-Man: No Way Home | December 17, 2021 | The More Fun Stuff Version (yes, that's what it's called) comes to theaters September 2nd!

[john2000]

5 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

Endgame FSS was 4.95 Th. Right now I’ve got NWH at 3.8ish, or about 23% down. Even TROS did 3.44x — I really don’t see how you could go below that combo of crazed Th fanbase+weak reception.

and its not like TROS was fan favorite...

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

9 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

Right now I’ve got NWH at 3.8ish, or about 23% down.

 

So a $210-250m OW?

 

[Cooper Legion]

1 minute ago, Multiverse of XXR said:

 

So a $210-250m OW?

 

230, yeah. Decided I’ve gotta be the voice for conservatism  

Edited December 5, 2021 by Product Driven Legion

[Cap]

17 minutes ago, john2000 said:

a 3,75 multi off previews ? dude come on...

I expect previews to be frontloaded AF. That’s all I am saying. 🤷‍♀️

[Cooper Legion]

1 minute ago, Product Driven Legion said:

230, yeah. Decided I’ve gotta be the voice for conservatism  

And yes, this makes me out of my own club… for now

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

1 minute ago, Product Driven Legion said:

230, yeah. Decided I’ve gotta be the voice for conservatism  

 

Got some bad news buddy. I'm not seeing Avatar DOM off of $230m.... 😢

[john2000]

1 minute ago, Product Driven Legion said:

And yes, this makes me out of my own club… for now

With my personal 2,8 multi , it would need a ow of over 260 to hit  750 mill dom.I dont think thats unlikely but who the heck knows maybe its WOM is amazing, and has a bigger multi.I didnt even think that 200 mill ow was possible before presales started 🤷‍♀️

[john2000]

3 minutes ago, Multiverse of XXR said:

 

Got some bad news buddy. I'm not seeing Avatar DOM off of $230m.... 😢

We will have to sacrifice @Product Driven Legion to manifest it 👀

Edited December 5, 2021 by john2000

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Just now, john2000 said:

We will have to sacrifice @Product Driven Legion to manifest it 👀

 

What!?! I would never, ever do that....
 

Spoiler

Not for Avatar DOM. Now for Endgame DOM, sure lets burn him.

 

 

[john2000]

guys chill , we still have morbius in case nwy fails.

[Cooper Legion]

Btw, a while ago @charlie Jatinder was saying to almost treat as a Th opening movie. So here are highest Th ODs and their trueThFSS/trueTh:

ROTS 141.5/33.1=4.275x (pretty close to TROS)  

Matrix Reloaded 125/33.2=3.76x 

Hangover 2 107.1/21.2=5.05 (lmao wtf) 

AotC 104/24=4.33x (again, close to ROTS and TROS, huh)

Kingdom of the Crystal Skull 120.7/20.5=5.89x

 

TPM was Wed OD, but has (true OD+FSS)/true OD of 78.3/21=3.73x — burned off more demand with Day 2 so this makes sense.   

 

It’s slim pickings, frankly. I think ROTS/AOTC nums should be about a floor, but it’s the same floor as TROS, so…

Edited December 5, 2021 by Product Driven Legion

[Knights of Ren]

215M is the absolute floor for OW 

[LPLC]

From what I saw, NWH OW will be between $200M and TFA's OW ($247M). Let's hope for $230M.

I hope for something between 2,5x and 3x legs, so maybe $575M-$690M final ?

 

So the correct range for NWH total should be $550M-$700M imo.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Makes you wonder what Endgame could have done with 3PM previews and a December holidays opening (non-pandemic). 

[Cooper Legion]

Just now, Multiverse of XXR said:

Makes you wonder what Endgame could have done with 3PM previews and a December holidays opening (non-pandemic). 

75-95-105-90 (365) x2.75=… 1.004B? I chose those dailies and multi before checking the product, pinky swear 😆

[KP1025]

1 hour ago, SpiderByte said:

Based on reports of international presales this might be one of those "billion before the weekend ends" scenarios

 

I don't see how. Even Endgame took 5 days to reach $1 billion WW (with over $330 million from China by that point), and NWH won't have China opening simultaneously this time. 

[fabiopazzo2]

43 minutes ago, LPLC said:

From what I saw, NWH OW will be between $200M and TFA's OW ($247M). Let's hope for $230M.

I hope for something between 2,5x and 3x legs, so maybe $575M-$690M final ?

 

So the correct range for NWH total should be $550M-$700M imo.

550M after 200M OW?????? What

[LPLC]

3 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

550M after 200M OW?????? What

This is the worst scenario.

[infamous5445]

I may be easily impressed but anything over 500M DOM would be incredible for this movie during these times

[charlie Jatinder]

Yikes. Last few pages are real gloomy.

 

1. The sales have not crashed or it is not Solo. They are holding really well but not Endgame level. That's it. Many folks were comparing EG day 1 sales and coming to conclusion it will/can be 300+, but we all knew that day 1 was sorta heavily hyped for sales.

 

2. That said, I do think it will be frontloaded. I am currently thinking ~210-230M OW off ~$50M previews. Full run may be $530-600M.

 

You know such a FLOP.

Edited December 6, 2021 by charlie Jatinder