Weekend Thread: Actuals - Mal2 $19.4M | Joker $19.2M | Adam's Family 12M | Zombieland $11.8M | Countdown $8.9M | Black & Blue $8.4M

[xiazhi]

Joker finally got a Halloween boost

[VENOM]

6 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Very good hold for Joker And Maleficent both dom and OS.

 

Joker is definitely looking like a billionaire movie And M2 is Coming for +500M afterall.

Maflopicent has a 200 million price tag excluding advertising costs so even if it makes 500 million that would still be a magnificent loss 

[a2k]

3 minutes ago, Marcos12 said:

OS-China increase will (very likely) be bigger, and the increase in China smaller.

WW84 = OS-China $450m/China $130m = $580m OS imo.

319 to 450 is a 41% bump. Too optimistic.

SMH 430 to FFH 542, +26% and this was huge imo.

GOTG2 decreased from 396 to 373.2 in part due to favourable EXR in 2014.

[Legion Again]

19 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

 PTA of 2,253.

 

Let's go to live Shots of our Survivors.

 

 

 

Lmao, what a weekend. Thanks for bringing this to my attention, I'd assumed we wouldn't get a JiK number til tomorrow wwith how long it was taking.

[DAJK]

7 minutes ago, VENOM said:

Maflopicent has a 200 million price tag excluding advertising costs so even if it makes 500 million that would still be a magnificent loss 

500 million is a huge loss for a 200 million film? And your math is...

[Thomas Beck]

9 minutes ago, VENOM said:

Maflopicent has a 200 million price tag excluding advertising costs so even if it makes 500 million that would still be a magnificent loss 

 

Show me on this doll where Maleficent hurt you.

[Marcos12]

1 minute ago, a2k said:

319 to 450 is a 41% bump. Too optimistic.

SMH 430 to FFH 542, +26% and this was huge imo.

GOTG2 decreased from 396 to 373.2 in part due to favourable EXR in 2014.

Spider man is old franchise, not much field to grow, Wonder Woman is a new franchise.

 

Guardians of the Galaxy is a Space Opera,  films of this type are not very popular with audiences abroad.

[MrGlass2]

1 minute ago, DAJK said:

500 million is a huge loss for a 200 million film? And your math is...

It is similar to Terminator: Genisys, with bigger budget and DOM. People had no problem calling that one a "flop".

[ThomasNicole]

14 minutes ago, VENOM said:

Maflopicent has a 200 million price tag excluding advertising costs so even if it makes 500 million that would still be a magnificent loss 

It costs $ 185M and apparently have a very low marketing campaign, it only need $ 400M to break even according to deadline, it won't loss anything with +500M

 

 

[Firepower]

12 minutes ago, Marcos12 said:

Spider man is old franchise, not much field to grow, Wonder Woman is a new franchise.

 

Guardians of the Galaxy is a Space Opera,  films of this type are not very popular with audiences abroad.

Why would Wonder Woman be more popular with foreign audiences than Guardians? Guardians were pretty much beloved abroad and even its sequel didn't have big increase there.

Edited October 27, 2019 by Firepower

[ThomasNicole]

5 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

It is similar to Terminator: Genisys, with bigger budget and DOM. People had no problem calling that one a "flop".

This comparisson doesn't make sense, Genysis make $ 440M, but $ 113M comes from China with a $ 160M budget.

 

Maleficent costs $ 185M and will be finishing with around $ 110M DOM and $ 400 - 410M OS. So around $ 500 - 520M WW, with only $ 45M or so coming from China. Deadline already say it need $ 400M to break even, so +500M will not be a flop in any way, it'll be a profitable movie.

[a2k]

If MALEF2 does get to 500 WW, no way it looses money considering it's not gonna do much more than 50-55 in China.

 

With 500 WW (115 dom + 52.5 Ch + 332.5 OS-Ch), global theatrical returns could be approx

115*0.55 + 52.5*0.25 + 332.5*0.40 = 209

(...and Disney has negotiated higher than 55% Dom returns anyway even if it doesn't hit 115)

 

Quote

Given its robust marketing spend, sources speculate “Maleficent: Mistress of Evil” will need to pull in at least $475 million globally to break even and closer to $500 million to turn a profit theatrically.

https://variety.com/2019/film/news/maleficent-mistress-of-evil-box-office-misfire-1203376637/

 

Not sure it hits 500 WW as it needs to add 2.50x the global 2nd weekend to it's cume, but it should recover investments eventually.

 

110*0.55 + 50*0.25 + 310*0.40 = 197 theatrical (470 WW) is around the least it should manage.

[Firepower]

Mal 2 is not flop, but they won't make another sequel.

Edited October 27, 2019 by Firepower

[NamakFiskKa]

8 minutes ago, Firepower said:

Why would Wonder Woman be more popular with foreign audiences than Guardians?

That could be applied to Aquaman before December 2018 but barring holiday season we know the results

[ThomasNicole]

5 minutes ago, a2k said:

If MALEF2 does get to 500 WW, no way it looses money considering it's not gonna do much more than 50-55 in China.

 

With 500 WW (115 dom + 52.5 Ch + 332.5 OS-Ch), global theatrical returns could be approx

115*0.55 + 52.5*0.25 + 332.5*0.40 = 209

(...and Disney has negotiated higher than 55% Dom returns anyway even if it doesn't hit 115)

 

https://variety.com/2019/film/news/maleficent-mistress-of-evil-box-office-misfire-1203376637/

 

Not sure it hits 500 WW as it needs to add 2.50x the global 2nd weekend to it's cume, but it should recover investments eventually.

 

110*0.55 + 50*0.25 + 310*0.40 = 197 theatrical (470 WW) is around the least it should manage.

The OS drop is very good, and without competition until Frozen 2 it should be able to cross $ 400M OS.

 

But yeah, pretty much agreed with everything. I'm not saying is a huge success or something, but it's definitely not a flop, it's a well liked movie with a good enough box office, and a profitable result.

[Firepower]

5 minutes ago, NamakFiskKa said:

That could be applied to Aquaman before December 2018 but barring holiday season we know the results

To be fair Aquaman could have made considerably less without Christmas release date.

[VENOM]

22 minutes ago, Thomas Beck said:

 

Show me on this doll where Maleficent hurt you.

Oh great a malflopicent cheer leader.. what is the world coming to..

[VENOM]

25 minutes ago, DAJK said:

500 million is a huge loss for a 200 million film? And your math is...

Advertising would be at least 150+ so it needs to make north of 750 to break even. Don’t use deadline as a barometer for what a movie needs to make. They still think the 90 million Once a upon a time needs to make 400 million to break even  

[a2k]

1 minute ago, VENOM said:

Advertising would be at least 150+ so it needs to make north of 750 to break even. Don’t use deadline as a barometer for what a movie needs to make. They still think the 90 million Once a upon a time needs to make 400 million to break even  

sorry but absurd. not every penny comes theatrically. for tentpoles with huge prod budgets, and prod budgets which are bigger than marketing spend, recovering the prod budget theatrically is almost always enough to break-even and make a profit.

[Royce]

Does anyone know how to view the yearly chart of an international country on the new box office mojo?