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Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania | February 17, 2023 | Competing with Eternals on RT, Competing with BvS on box office legs

By TMP, in Box Office Discussion

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Posted by Eric Prime,

Moderation   Okay, we are back in business. And frankly, I think we're done with this whole "Is Marvel dying/dead" discourse here in this thread. It is very obvious that whatever side of the coin you're on, none of you guys will agree with each other. It's very frustrating having to see people ready to pounce on Marvel, desperate to see it bomb, while also seeing people refuse to hear any criticism over their favorite franchise fight back and forth when you know nobody's minds will be
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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

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Posted (edited)

Forgot to check for 24 hours but at 36:

 

YouTube (main channel): 9.9m views, 443k likes

Twitter (main channel): 7.7m views, 120k likes.

Instagram (2 main channels): 35m views, 3m likes.

 

These didn't increase that much in the last 12 hours iirc so shouldn't be too far from 24 hour view count.

 

Instagram has been nuts for the last few MCU trailers, both in views and likes. Gotta wonder if that has contributed to some of the weaker numbers on other platforms.

 

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BadOlCatSylvester Box Office Gold

BadOlCatSylvester

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23 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Forgot to check for 24 hours but at 36:

 

YouTube (main channel): 9.9m views, 443k likes

Twitter (main channel): 7.7m views, 120k likes.

Instagram (2 main channels): 35m views, 3m likes.

 

These didn't increase that much in the last 12 hours iirc so shouldn't be too far from 24 hour view count.

 

Instagram has been nuts for the last few MCU trailers, both in views and likes. Gotta wonder if that has contributed to some of the weaker numbers on other platforms.

 

Pretty nasty decline on YouTube from the first trailer. Wakanda Forever suffered a similar one, and that ended up underperforming big time. I'd start getting a little worried if I were Marvel, especially since this is going to lay the groundwork for the next couple of years of the franchise.

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YM! Global Phenomenon

YM!

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51 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Forgot to check for 24 hours but at 36:

 

YouTube (main channel): 9.9m views, 443k likes

Twitter (main channel): 7.7m views, 120k likes.

Instagram (2 main channels): 35m views, 3m likes.

 

These didn't increase that much in the last 12 hours iirc so shouldn't be too far from 24 hour view count.

 

Instagram has been nuts for the last few MCU trailers, both in views and likes. Gotta wonder if that has contributed to some of the weaker numbers on other platforms.

 

I do think perhaps a shift to Instagram and other platforms could be a main factor, especially for the demographics. How were the trailer views on Instagram for other movies.

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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, YM! said:

I do think perhaps a shift to Instagram and other platforms could be a main factor, especially for the demographics. How were the trailer views on Instagram for other movies.

 

WF trailer 2: ~25m views, 3.3m likes

L&T trailer 2: ~9m views, 2.1m likes

DS2 trailer 2: ~17m views, 3m likes

 

Definitely feels like there has been a shift to Instagram to me, DS2 trailer 2 probably bucks the trend a bit since it was just huge on all platforms.

 

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nox Straight-to-DVD

nox

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I liked this latest trailer a lot, for 2  reasons mainly:

 

1. The relatively serious and sombre tone made me feel emotionally invested in Antman's fate, a character that previously felt like is there only for comic-relief.

 

2. Jonathan Majors looks amazing as the next supervillain. I thought he was underwhelming and unconvincing in the finale of Loki, but here he seems like a worthy successor to Thanos.

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BadOlCatSylvester Box Office Gold

BadOlCatSylvester

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39 minutes ago, Verrows said:

Per @datpepper in the tracking thread, tickets likely on sale January 16! 

 

Weird that they would break from pairing main trailer and tickets on sale only to drop tickets just a week later, but whatever.

 

They must have been desperate to boost those college football ratings.

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Cooper Legion Global Phenomenon

Cooper Legion

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Initial targets: Would like to see 16+ previews, so about evenly between BP and SC.    
 

Approx 24 hr th:final th for recent movies:

BW 1.1:13.2, 12x, 27 days (mtc varying curfews, PA, missing some Canada)

SC .82:9.1*, 11x, 17 days (*storm adjusted est, delta)

Et 1.33:9.5, 7.1x, 24 days (horrible reception)

BPWF 4.1:28, 6.8x, 40 days

A2 2:17, 8.5x, 24 days

 

Essentially no correlation with days to ratio. Reasonable relationship between start and ratio (especially excluding BW which was inflated by mtc capacity stuff and et deflated by reception):

 

 

AE189621-D64-C-4302-8-B42-2-A3-D524-BF340 5-D53-FC09-E3-A3-4-DE5-B4-F8-68914-C2784-E3
 

Giving:

final=start+added=start+start*added/start~=s+s(9.43-1.815 log_2 (s))

which gives the following table:

Th final Expected start Ratio
12 1.21 9.917355372
13 1.35 9.62962963
14 1.49 9.395973154
15 1.64 9.146341463
16 1.8 8.888888889
17 1.96 8.673469388
18 2.13 8.450704225
19 2.3 8.260869565
20 2.485 8.048289738
21 2.67 7.865168539

 

 

So I will be looking for ~1.8M start — or ~90% A2, 44% BP2, 2.2x SC

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JustLurking Box Office Gold

JustLurking

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said:

Initial targets: Would like to see 16+ previews, so about evenly between BP and SC.    
 

Approx 24 hr th:final th for recent movies:

BW 1.1:13.2, 12x, 27 days (mtc varying curfews, PA, missing some Canada)

SC .82:9.1*, 11x, 17 days (*storm adjusted est, delta)

Et 1.33:9.5, 7.1x, 24 days (horrible reception)

BPWF 4.1:28, 6.8x, 40 days

A2 2:17, 8.5x, 24 days

 

Essentially no correlation with days to ratio. Reasonable relationship between start and ratio (especially excluding BW which was inflated by mtc capacity stuff and et deflated by reception):

 

 

AE189621-D64-C-4302-8-B42-2-A3-D524-BF340 5-D53-FC09-E3-A3-4-DE5-B4-F8-68914-C2784-E3
 

Giving:

final=start+added=start+start*added/start~=s+s(9.43-1.815 log_2 (s))

which gives the following table:

Th final Expected start Ratio
12 1.21 9.917355372
13 1.35 9.62962963
14 1.49 9.395973154
15 1.64 9.146341463
16 1.8 8.888888889
17 1.96 8.673469388
18 2.13 8.450704225
19 2.3 8.260869565
20 2.485 8.048289738
21 2.67 7.865168539

 

 

So I will be looking for ~1.8M start — or ~90% A2, 44% BP2, 2.2x SC

Nerd :qotd:

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