2020: How Many $100M Grossers Will There Be? Can It Beat The Record?

[Eric Deetz]

Don't think we did this last year, so might as well start the tradition. Can 2020 beat 2013's long-standing record????

 

1. Bad Boys for Life

2. Sonic the Hedgehog

[Avatree]

Can't remember record, i thought it was 36? But according to the numbers 2013 had 32.

 

Anyway a very quick look at schedule and my guesses:

 

1. Birds of Prey

2. Onward

3. Quiet Place 2

4. Mulan

5. No Time To Die

6. Trolls World Tour

7. Black Widow

8. Fast and Furious 9

9. Spongebob movie

10. Wonder Woman

11. Soul

12. Top Gun Maverick

13. Minions

14. Tenet

15. Jungle Cruise

16. Morbius

17. Conjuring 3

18. Venom 2

19. Death on the Nile

20. Eternals

21. Godzilla v Kong

22. Coming to America 2

23. West Side Story

24. Croods 2

 

Throw in a few surprises and it still won't get close to the record. Super weak year.

 

OUT!

 

Edited January 5, 2020 by Avatree

[Avatree]

Also, link to 2019 version:

 

 

[JWR]

$100m domestically or $100m worldwide?

[Avatree]

1 minute ago, JWR said:

$100m domestically or $100m worldwide?

Pretty much everything discussed on this forum is regarding Domestic box office, particularly in the main subforum "Box Office Discussion", is for Domestic discussion. International box office is discussed in other subforums  

Welcome to the forums btw.

[Godzilla]

Nah don't even see it coming close. 

[JWR]

5 minutes ago, Avatree said:

Pretty much everything discussed on this forum is regarding Domestic box office, particularly in the main subforum "Box Office Discussion", is for Domestic discussion. International box office is discussed in other subforums  

Welcome to the forums btw.

Thanks for having me. 😁

[Ipickthiswhiterose]

On ‎1‎/‎5‎/‎2020 at 4:55 PM, Avatree said:

Can't remember record, i thought it was 36? But according to the numbers 2013 had 32.

 

Anyway a very quick look at schedule and my guesses:

 

1. Birds of Prey

2. Onward

3. Quiet Place 2

4. Mulan(...................)

 

 

Throw in a few surprises and it still won't get close to the record. Super weak year.

 

OUT!

 

 

Yeah, this list seems pretty comprehensive. Sure there will be a smattering of names that aren't on the radar, plus I do think Dolittle will squeak it at the start of the year (I think it will do poorly, but more of a Dumbo/Malificent2/GodzillaKOTM 'meh' than a total car crash), I'm fairly high on In The Heights catching a bit of fire, and even if Dune doesn't break out at Christmas there will be a *something* beyond CTA and WSS that will, but agree it won't just be short of the record but short of 2019 as well.

Edited January 9, 2020 by Ipickthiswhiterose

[stripe]

On 1/5/2020 at 5:55 PM, Avatree said:

Can't remember record, i thought it was 36? But according to the numbers 2013 had 32.

 

Anyway a very quick look at schedule and my guesses:

 

1. Birds of Prey

2. Onward

3. Quiet Place 2

4. Mulan

5. No Time To Die

6. Trolls World Tour

7. Black Widow

8. Fast and Furious 9

9. Spongebob movie

10. Wonder Woman

11. Soul

12. Top Gun Maverick

13. Minions

14. Tenet

15. Jungle Cruise

16. Morbius

17. Conjuring 3

18. Venom 2

19. Death on the Nile

20. Eternals

21. Godzilla v Kong

22. Coming to America 2

23. West Side Story

24. Croods 2

 

Throw in a few surprises and it still won't get close to the record. Super weak year.

 

OUT!

 

 

Possible 100M grossers besides these (and still room for some surprises)

 

Bad Boys for Life

Sonic

Scoob!

Woman in the window

Artemis Fowl

Free Guy

Ghostbusters

Infinite

King's Man

Trial of the Chicago 7

BIOS

The Witches

Halloween Kills

Stillwater

Raya and the Last Dragon

Uncharted

Dune

News of the world

Tomorrow war

The Last Duel

 

 

 

 

 

 

[stripe]

The less 300M+ grossers, the more air to breath for middle hits. This year we had 9 films over that mark, 5 of them over 400M. I would say that 2020 might finish with no more than 5 300M grossers.

[narniadis]

Always a good thing to track... at least its not 2005 and 2006 with only 19 films hitting the mark lol. 

[Stewart]

On 1/5/2020 at 4:39 PM, Eric Dolittle said:

Don't think we did this last year, so might as well start the tradition. Can 2020 beat 2013's long-standing record????

There's been one every year I can remember (which is 3 years worth), courtesy of @Mike Hunt last year (among others) and then @Blankments before that.

 

Past 3 years threads:

 

[Dandeak2000]

It's a new year! 2019 looks to be reaching 30 films over $100M. But how will this year do? Well, here's my list for the possibilities coming in the next 11 and a half months. This year has quite a stacked Christmas and summer season in terms of the number of possible $100M+ films. What does your predicted list this year? Do you think this year will break the record?

 

Possibilities

 

1. Bad Boys For Life - January 17

2. Dolittle - January 17 (depends on legs)

3. Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) - February 7

4. Sonic The Hedgehog - February 14

5. The Invisible Man

6. Onward - March 6

7. A Quiet Place Part II - March 20

8. Mulan - March 27

9. Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway - April 3

10. The New Mutants (maybe) - April 3

11. No Time To Die - April 10

12. Trolls World Tour - April 17

13. Black Widow - May 1

14. Greyhound - May 8

15. Scoob! - May 15

16. Fast & Furious 9 - May 22

17. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge on The Run - May 22

18. Artemis Fowl - May 29 (unlikely, but still techinically possible)

19. Wonder Woman 1984 - June 5

20. Soul - June 19

21. Top Gun: Maverick - June 26

22. In The Heights - June 26

23. Minions: The Rise of Gru - July 3

24. Free Guy - July 3

25. Ghostbusters: Afterlife - July 10

26. Tenet - July 17

27. Jungle Cruise - July 24

28. Morbius - July 31

29. The One And Only Ivan - August 14 (possible)

30, Bill & Ted Face The Music - August 21

31. The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It - September 11

32. The King's Man - September 18

33. Last Night In Soho - September 25

34. Untitled Sony/Marvel (could be Venom 2) - October 2

35. Death on The Nile - October 9

36. Halloween Kills - October 16

37. Eternals - November 6

38. Godzilla Vs. Kong - November 20 (maybe)

39. Raya and the Last Dragon - November 25

40. West Side Story - December 18

41. Coming 2 America - December 18

42. Dune - December 18

43. Uncharted - December 18 (maybe, might be pushed back)

44. The Croods 2 - December 23

45. The Tomorrow War - December 25 (maybe)

46. News of the World - December 25 (maybe)

47. The Last Duel - December 25 (maybe)

 

[Dandeak2000]

Year: $100M grossers/$200M/$300M/$400M/$500+M

 

2019: 28/11/09/06/02 (so far)

2018: 34/14/06/04/03

2017: 33/13/08/04/02

2016: 30/13/09/03/01

2015: 29/10/06/03/02

2014: 33/13/03/00/00

2013: 35/13/04/03/00

2012: 31/11/05/03/01

2011: 30/07/02/00/00

Edited January 14, 2020 by Mike Hunt

[Avatree]

 

[Eric Deetz]

100M

1. Bad Boys for Life - January 25

[stripe]

To reach the record there has to be 3 movies per month over 100M. First quarter is always hard to match that.

 

January will have 1. Dolittle will miss, with around 75-85M DOM.

 

February has 1 sure (Birds of Prey), 1 really likely (Sonic) and 2 possibilities (Invisible Man, Call of the Wild).

 

March has 3 assured 100M grossers (Onward, A Quiet Place and Mulan) but anything else looks likely. Longshots are Bloodshot and The Way Back.

 

April has No Time to Die and Trolls as sure bets. But hard to see another 100M in that month. Maybe Bad Trip or Peter Rabbit 2?

 

So 8 100M grossers after 4 months. Not bad.

[charlie Jatinder]

On 1/9/2020 at 8:43 PM, narniadis said:

Always a good thing to track... at least its not 2005 and 2006 with only 19 films hitting the mark lol. 

Inflation adjusted 39 😛

[cdsacken]

Probably not. 25 or less

[Godzilla]

I think this year box office success will be a lot more spread out than recent years with Disney dominating. Which I think it's a good thing.