The Marvels | November 10, 2023 | Abandon All Hope Ye Who Enter

[MovieMan89]

Like I said, the runtime is the only good omen we’ve ever gotten for this movie. Give us a brisk fun little adventure flick and the GA may just show up for this after all. The standard  MCU 2.5hr bloated runtime these days would have sunk this for sure. 

[SpiderByte]

Well at least with the X-Men news we know Iman Vellani has a next project locked up after Marvel Zombies

[emoviefan]

1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

Like I said, the runtime is the only good omen we’ve ever gotten for this movie. Give us a brisk fun little adventure flick and the GA may just show up for this after all. The standard  MCU 2.5hr bloated runtime these days would have sunk this for sure. 

That's exactly it. Based on the trailers could you imagine this being 2 and a half hours or even 2 hours. 

[DInky]

7 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

Like I said, the runtime is the only good omen we’ve ever gotten for this movie. Give us a brisk fun little adventure flick and the GA may just show up for this after all. The standard  MCU 2.5hr bloated runtime these days would have sunk this for sure. 

 

2.5 hours is hardly the standard.  These are the only MCU movies that are longer than 2 hours 20 minutes and only 4 of them are from the last 3 years.

 

Avengers: Age of Ultron: 2 hours 21 minutes
The Avengers: 2 hours 23 minutes
Captain America: Civil War: 2 hours 27 minutes
Spider-Man: No Way Home: 2 hours 28 minutes
Avengers: Infinity War: 2 hours 29 minutes

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.3: 2 hours 30 minutes

Eternals: 2 hours 36 minutes
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever: 2 hours 41 minutes
Avengers: Endgame: 3 hours 1 minute

[SpiderByte]

Barring a huge wave of bad reviews killing WOM I remain confident this'll do well. Not as high as Guardians 3 but not as low as Quantumania. Plus it'll have "highest grossing OW by a black female director" in all the headlines no matter what (since the highest is....22 million. Set by Nia Dacostas Candyman. Jeez this industry is depressing).

[Human]

9 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Plus it'll have "highest grossing OW by a black female director" in all the headlines no matter what (since the highest is....22 million. Set by Nia Dacostas Candyman. Jeez this industry is depressing).

You just guranteed it will have open at 21.9M dollars.  

[harry713]

9 hours ago, DInky said:

 

2.5 hours is hardly the standard.  These are the only MCU movies that are longer than 2 hours 20 minutes and only 4 of them are from the last 3 years.

 

Avengers: Age of Ultron: 2 hours 21 minutes
The Avengers: 2 hours 23 minutes
Captain America: Civil War: 2 hours 27 minutes
Spider-Man: No Way Home: 2 hours 28 minutes
Avengers: Infinity War: 2 hours 29 minutes

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.3: 2 hours 30 minutes

Eternals: 2 hours 36 minutes
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever: 2 hours 41 minutes
Avengers: Endgame: 3 hours 1 minute

MCU average runtime for all films is 2 hrs 12 min. At nearly 30 mins shorter The Marvels does feel notable in comparison. 

[WittyUsername]

I thought the highest grossing OW for a black woman director was A Wrinkle in Time?

[emoviefan]

1 hour ago, SpiderByte said:

Barring a huge wave of bad reviews killing WOM I remain confident this'll do well. Not as high as Guardians 3 but not as low as Quantumania. Plus it'll have "highest grossing OW by a black female director" in all the headlines no matter what (since the highest is....22 million. Set by Nia Dacostas Candyman. Jeez this industry is depressing).

Yep that's where I see it. Between this year's other two movies seems right. I think 250 dom and 550-650 WW they should be happy. 

[SpiderByte]

48 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

I thought the highest grossing OW for a black woman director was A Wrinkle in Time?

That's correct, I was mistaken, apparently Candyman was the highest opening that actually opened to #1 in that weekend.

Edited September 30, 2023 by SpiderByte

[Squire]

32 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Yep that's where I see it. Between this year's other two movies seems right. I think 250 dom and 550-650 WW they should be happy. 

They will? The first movie made $1.13 billion. If it hits the range you’re suggesting, that would be a 43-50% drop off from the first movie. That is not a win IMO, especially for a movie that cost $220-$275 million. 

[emoviefan]

2 minutes ago, Squire said:

They will? The first movie made $1.13 billion. If it hits the range you’re suggesting, that would be a 43-50% drop off from the first movie. That is not a win IMO, especially for a movie that cost $220-$275 million. 

Based on expectations yeah they should be happy. I don't think anybody's panting in excitement for this movie and as many have said over and over around here the MCU is far from it's peak right now. 

[DInky]

39 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Based on expectations yeah they should be happy. I don't think anybody's panting in excitement for this movie and as many have said over and over around here the MCU is far from it's peak right now. 

 

 

225M budget + 150M marketing budget (according to Deadline 150M was the marketing budget for all 2022 Marvel movies) so for Disney to be happy this thing needs to make 750M to even make a tiny profit in theaters. 550-650M is not going to cut it.

Edited September 30, 2023 by DInky

[Squire]

56 minutes ago, DInky said:

 

 

225M budget + 150M marketing budget (according to Deadline 150M was the marketing budget for all 2022 Marvel movies) so for Disney to be happy this thing needs to make 750M to even make a tiny profit in theaters. 550-650M is not going to cut it.

Yeah, I think lowering the bar for success to $550-$650 is a a shifting of the goal posts on this movie. Considering the success the first one had, it really needs to be in the $700 million range. Otherwise, I think the popularity of Captain Marvel as a character and/or Brie Larson’s version of the character is in serious doubt. 

[MovieMan89]

12 hours ago, DInky said:

 

2.5 hours is hardly the standard.  These are the only MCU movies that are longer than 2 hours 20 minutes and only 4 of them are from the last 3 years.

 

Avengers: Age of Ultron: 2 hours 21 minutes
The Avengers: 2 hours 23 minutes
Captain America: Civil War: 2 hours 27 minutes
Spider-Man: No Way Home: 2 hours 28 minutes
Avengers: Infinity War: 2 hours 29 minutes

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.3: 2 hours 30 minutes

Eternals: 2 hours 36 minutes
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever: 2 hours 41 minutes
Avengers: Endgame: 3 hours 1 minute

I meant their standard this decade, which that list supports since most of their long films are just from these last 3 years. There has been a weird post COVID trend I’ve talked about before where the studios have been far more into long blockbusters than anytime in my lifetime.

 

I think I had figured out there are either almost the same or already more 2.5hr+ big budget movies in the past 3 years than all of last decade. The reason I’m saying this could be a big breath of fresh air with this runtime. If the movie is liked of course. 

[emoviefan]

3 minutes ago, Squire said:

Yeah, I think lowering the bar for success to $550-$650 is a a shifting of the goal posts on this movie. Considering the success the first one had, it really needs to be in the $700 million range. Otherwise, I think the popularity of Captain Marvel as a character and/or Brie Larson’s version of the character is in serious doubt. 

700 million range would be great and if reviews are at least good that's possible. Just don't think if it only does 600 million or so we need the GO Woke or Go Broke bullshit or the MCU is done crap. Which will happen no matter what it makes though. 

[DInky]

46 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

700 million range would be great and if reviews are at least good that's possible. Just don't think if it only does 600 million or so we need the GO Woke or Go Broke bullshit or the MCU is done crap. Which will happen no matter what it makes though. 

 

I agree with you there.

[Squire]

48 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

700 million range would be great and if reviews are at least good that's possible. Just don't think if it only does 600 million or so we need the GO Woke or Go Broke bullshit or the MCU is done crap. Which will happen no matter what it makes though. 

I agree about the Go Woke point, but somewhat disagree about be second. If this movie makes only $600 million it definitely bolsters the idea that the MCU is in decline and also is reflective of the popularity of CM as a character. 

[emoviefan]

7 minutes ago, Squire said:

I agree about the Go Woke point, but somewhat disagree about be second. If this movie makes only $600 million it definitely bolsters the idea that the MCU is in decline and also is reflective of the popularity of CM as a character. 

I guess my whole point is the excitement level for this movie. There is no way it is anywhere near Guardians 3 and that needed Strong Post Release WOM to make as much as it did when it should have easily done 400+ DOM and 900 WW. I am not saying they will be jumping with joy making 600-750 WW but it could be much worse and they know it. 

[SpiderByte]

There's snippets of the new trailer leaking online so it's probably not far off, week at most.

Edited October 2, 2023 by SpiderByte