The Marvels | November 10, 2023 | Abandon All Hope Ye Who Enter

[Arlborn]

This will live and die by its quality, pretty much. Marvel will have to pull another GOG3 here.

 

 

Talking about GOG3, the way that ended I always thought meant Chris Pratt had a pretty good chance of ending up as the new leader of the Avengers. Why else would they separate him from the GOG and strand him on earth? Chris is a big star, and Starlord is used to leading, it makes sense.

 

Edited October 10, 2023 by Arlborn

[The GOAT]

Close your eyes. Abandon all Ye Hope. The Abyss is just dash ahead. 

 

[SpiderByte]

I always like the special posters like these even though they're always for like the 4DX showings that are never where I live.

 

 

[SpiderByte]

1 minute ago, The GOAT said:

Close your eyes. Abandon all Ye Hope. The Abyss is just dash ahead. 

 

Lol even Empire isn't as much of a doomer as the people on here saying it'll do 40

[CoolioD1]

4 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Lol even Empire isn't as much of a doomer as the people on here saying it'll do 40

I was talking about you btw when I said some people here would extrapolate ONE person not even saying it would do 40mil but that it wouldn't be the most shocking thing him into "Many people here are saying it would only open to 40mil, what fools"

[Liiviig 1998]

1 minute ago, SpiderByte said:

Lol even Empire isn't as much of a doomer as the people on here saying it'll do 40

He is a doomer that still tracks numbers though .

 

 

 

[Willowra]

12 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

This will live and die by its quality, pretty much. Marvel will have to pull another GOG3 here.

 

 

Talking about GOG3, the way that ended I always thought meant Chris Pratt had a pretty good chance of ending up as the new leader of the Avengers. Why else would they separate him from the GOG and strand him on earth? Chris is a big star, and Starlord is used to leading, it makes sense.

 

How bad MCU has done after Endgame that people are now seeing Avengers potential leader in Guardians members lmao

[toutvabien]

Interesting that neither of the spots released today are like the leaked, longer one, with the voice over AND how Carol focused they are. I don't know how to read pre-sales in general, but we're in a kind of new era of Marvel movies getting more and more backloaded. What's actually crazy is how quickly that happened. Phase 4 carried on the goodwill and momentum of the previous saga and even earlier this year, Quantumania managed to open past $100M despite the worst reviews, reactions and buzz ever for a Marvel movie, causing it to lose steam even before release. The two subsequent films, installments of more popular sub-franchises, do no longer have that security. Even if they manage to replicate the late fan screening/great buzz of Guardians 3, The Marvels won't open much higher. It could act as a good building block to secure getting back to the kind of momentum they used to have. If the floor of Guardians 3 was already sub $90M, I wouldn't be too shocked if it's even lower for this one, despite my overall optimism for this film's performance. And yea, in the context of this film, a $75-80M opening would be no good news at all. And the floor can go lower for future releases, if that's the case.

 

If Marvel fails to build back momentum, I really don't see the next bunch of Avengers movies getting close to Age of Ultron numbers.

Edited October 10, 2023 by toutvabien

[Madhuvan]

100m is like the best case scenario right now

[Mr Terrific]

2 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

I was talking about you btw when I said some people here would extrapolate ONE person not even saying it would do 40mil but that it wouldn't be the most shocking thing him into "Many people here are saying it would only open to 40mil, what fools"

You’re fun. 
This thread has been overrun with negativity for a while. A fan of the genre mocks a dumb or silly post. But here comes Coolio! He’s going to preemptively defend the comment against anyone who comments on it. 

Does Coolio comment on the weird straw man that stans are denying that this movie is in a different spot than CM?

Nope. He’s here to rescue us from SpiderByte!

This movie will succeed or not, but SpiderByte better be careful!

 

[CoolioD1]

4 minutes ago, Mr Terrific said:

You’re fun. 
This thread has been overrun with negativity for a while. A fan of the genre mocks a dumb or silly post. But here comes Coolio! He’s going to preemptively defend the comment against anyone who comments on it. 

Does Coolio comment on the weird straw man that stans are denying that this movie is in a different spot than CM?

Nope. He’s here to rescue us from SpiderByte!

This movie will succeed or not, but SpiderByte better be careful!

 

You're welcome. y'all stay safe out here.

[Maggie]

I said 80M a few pages back, but if the movie is really good and reviews are great, then i can see it doing more. Marvel fans are more willing to wait these days. Guardians 3 proved this. I hope it's a success cos i enjoyed the first one

[The GOAT]

18 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

He is a doomer that still tracks numbers though .

 

 

 

I think he’s a theater owner who stands to gain from its success. Or at least that’s what I heard from the strike thread

[SpiderByte]

24 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

I was talking about you btw when I said some people here would extrapolate ONE person not even saying it would do 40mil but that it wouldn't be the most shocking thing him into "Many people here are saying it would only open to 40mil, what fools"

Maybe people should stop saying it then since it was definitely more than one person.

[Willowra]

$100m OW seems like dead. Now the question is whether this will open close to $30-40m or close to $60-70m.

[TwoMisfits]

21 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

100m is like the best case scenario right now

 

It's gonna be a shocking, but not surprising open, the way it's going.  

 

When greenlit, Disney had to be thinking "the 1st opened to $153M - even if 10-20% of that was hype for Endgame, with ticket inflation, we could still be looking at close to the same opening weekend number...at worst, maybe it falls 10-20%, and we open between $125-$140M"...

 

That was the thinking in Dec 2022 around here, too, I think...

 

How far the supers fall of 2023 has brought our expectations.  Now, we'll be shocked, but not surprised, if this goes under 3 digits for OW...

 

Of course, how far under could increase our surprise level.

 

Although maybe we've reset expectations so low, this will surprise to the upside and sneak to $100M+...stranger things have happened this year...I don't expect it, but I'm open to a lot of supers opening weekend finishes this year...

Edited October 10, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[Maggie]

One thing is for sure...the forum would be dead without Marvel bickering, so careful what you wish for lol

[toutvabien]

That featurette has some of the best shots they have shown yet off the movie. Would be funny if Marvel dropped two of their best looking films (and Loki S2, which looks fucking beautiful) the same year as Quantumania.

[Liiviig 1998]

To extrapolate OW . Think we need to see where preview range settles after 24 hrs  to give us a baseline.

 

Guardians 6.74* IM

WF. 6.4* IM

QM 6.1* IM

 Just like marvels . QM and WF released on holiday weekend.  

 

November is just not good for legs  so 80M would put it around low 200s with WF  and Ragnarok legs. 

DS would put it around 230ish million.

 

 

 

 

[DAJK]

I don't think 70-100 would be awful taken out of context (although I don't think this will reach that high barring GOTG3-level reception). Captain Marvel was a c-level character prior to her first movie. That first film benefitted a lot by coming out between IW and EG, when Marvel craze was arguably at its peak. Had Captain Marvel come out in, say, 2013-2016, it would have likely opened in the 70-100 range (if not slightly lower) as well. 

 

This movie coming back down to Earth (no pun intended) seems more like regression towards the mean more than anything, rather than a complete crashing and burning. We'll see how reception is, and whether or not presales pick up over the next few weeks. For now, I'm expecting Black Adam numbers domestically.