Best Picture Predictions - 2020

[WittyUsername]

8 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Not much, with the way almost everyone who isn't Netflix is moving their movies past even the extended deadline of February 28 this year. Wouldn't be much of a surprise if the industry decided to just not have an Oscars this year at that point, especially in a year where the movie theater industry is really hurting.

I’ve been saying that they should just skip the Oscars this year, but the Academy seems hellbent on having it no matter what. 

[Barnack]

23 hours ago, WittyUsername said:

I’ve been saying that they should just skip the Oscars this year, but the Academy seems hellbent on having it no matter what. 

I could be misreading the tone, but that is said like if it does take into account that the Academy TV deal with ABC is 75 millions a year's, it is pretty much their only source of revenues and they just got into a really big debt by constructing their museum (that I imagine is not close to make any revenue for them anytime soon).

 

They are probably indeed hellbent into not missing on that $75M cash entry, it is probably not just an impression.

 

And in the context of the industry hurting, it is a time when they could really use an Oscar season (specially if the different streaming platform are both well implemented and figured out PVOD by then a stream all our nominated movie on our platform during all the season for X could be something interesting at least it is something were claiming was ridiculous to not have for years)

Edited September 30, 2020 by Barnack

[Blankments]

in the moonlight thread for shits and giggles after the lion king 2 announcement...

 

On 4/19/2017 at 3:13 PM, CoolioD1 said:

in a few years half the oscar nominees are just gonna be netflix movies that only played in 2 cinemas for a week anyway.

 

wow, way to call it, @CoolioD1

[filmlover]

Annnndddd Dune is out of the race too now that it's moved to next October. With the way almost everyone except Netflix is just abandoning even the extended January/February deadline the chances of there being no Oscars this year are looking more and more likely by the day. At least the TV sides of the Golden Globes and the SAG awards guarantee those won't be cancelled.

[lorddemaxus]

Two more days and we'll know what's gonna happen to Soul I think. Only big movie left atm that's got a good chance at getting a BP nom.

[WittyUsername]

At this point, one thing seems to be for sure: if they move ahead with the 2020 Oscars, the ratings will probably tank even more than they have for the past several years. Seriously, what even is there to get excited about at this point?

[grim22]

9 hours ago, filmlover said:

Annnndddd Dune is out of the race too now that it's moved to next October. With the way almost everyone except Netflix is just abandoning even the extended January/February deadline the chances of there being no Oscars this year are looking more and more likely by the day. At least the TV sides of the Golden Globes and the SAG awards guarantee those won't be cancelled.

Yeah. I don't see a "streaming Oscars" happening. ABC and the studios will not go for that. The ratings would be the lowest in history by a large large margin.

[SLAM!]

22 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

Two more days and we'll know what's gonna happen to Soul I think. Only big movie left atm that's got a good chance at getting a BP nom.

 

You know what, I think they'd nominate Tenet, actually. I think they would. The film is creative enough, and they've nominated "confusing" films before (Arrival). Out of all of 2020's big theatrical releases, Tenet's nomination is the easiest to justify. So the double-whammy of Tenet and Soul, I think, would be enough to legitimize the Oscars. Disney just has to play ball.

[lorddemaxus]

6 minutes ago, SLAM! said:

 

You know what, I think they'd nominate Tenet, actually. I think they would. The film is creative enough, and they've nominated "confusing" films before (Arrival). Out of all of 2020's big theatrical releases, Tenet's nomination is the easiest to justify. So the double-whammy of Tenet and Soul, I think, would be enough to legitimize the Oscars. Disney just has to play ball.

And with Dune being pushed out, Tenet will probably get a huge campaign.

[filmlover]

Arrival and Tenet isn't a good comparison at all. The former had a 90%+ RT score and was labeled as one of the best movies of its year overall. The latter is sitting in the low 70% area and already has been classified as "Lesser Nolan" (whose movies, Dunkirk aside, have tended to underperform on Oscar morning). That's not including the additional criticism the movie has also faced for its wrongheaded release in the midst of a pandemic and the "Saving Cinema" campaign that blew up in their faces. It's felt dead for anything above the line since the reviews came in and feels even more now since the passion won't be there, especially when WB is unlikely to spend more money on their gamble that didn't pay off.

 

It'll get in for almost everything tech if the ceremony still happens though (even Sound, regardless of the problems a lot of people had with the movie), since those usually recognize blockbuster-sized productions and it's the only one of those that stayed as everything else moved well into 2021.

Edited October 6, 2020 by filmlover

[SLAM!]

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

Arrival and Tenet isn't a good comparison at all. The former had a 90%+ RT score and was labeled as one of the best movies of its year overall. The latter is sitting in the low 70% area and already has been classified as "Lesser Nolan" (whose movies, Dunkirk aside, have tended to underperform on Oscar morning). That's not including the additional criticism the movie has also faced for its wrongheaded release in the midst of a pandemic and the "Saving Cinema" campaign that blew up in their faces. It's felt dead for anything above the line since the reviews came in and feels even more now since the passion won't be there, especially when WB is unlikely to spend more money on their gamble that didn't pay off.

 

It'll get in for almost everything tech if the ceremony still happens though (even Sound, regardless of the problems a lot of people had with the movie), since those usually recognize blockbuster-sized productions and it's the only one of those that stayed as everything else moved well into 2021.

 

That may have been a bad comparison, and Tenet's critic score might be a little low, but I genuinely believe that in spite of the slightly lower reception and in spite of the controversies, the Academy would still be willing to nominate Tenet. And in my opinion, they should be willing. For those who care about theatrical releases, Tenet absolutely has a narrative--all a film needs is a narrative, really. "At a time when everything else is abandoning theatrical release, Tenet is the sole film that's willing to give it a try" is the narrative they'd consider.

 

And hopefully they would be able to consider an "okay" Nolan film, because if they're willing to consider "okay" biopics and "okay" oscar-bait all the time, then they should theoretically be willing to consider an "okay" blockbuster like Tenet. They know that ratings are on the line, and they'd be desperate enough to buy into Warner Bros.' campaign. Maybe in 2003 when there were only five nominees, it'd end up like Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl, which currently holds a 79% on Rotten Tomatoes--that film received five nominations, most of them in technical categories (and I wonder, if Return of the King hadn't released that year, and if it were a 10-nominee field, would they have included Curse of the Black Pearl--I think they would, actually...). But with an 8-or-9-film nominee field without any blockbuster competition and an Academy pressured by external forces to nominate populist films, Tenet may still be within the realm of possibility. And even if the film isn't doing so well box office wise, Warner Bros. may want to use Tenet's nomination as a means of maintaining Christopher Nolan's image of being a prestige director. I'm not saying the nomination is guaranteed by any means, but I'm saying it's still within the realm of possibility.

[filmlover]

4 hours ago, SLAM! said:

 

That may have been a bad comparison, and Tenet's critic score might be a little low, but I genuinely believe that in spite of the slightly lower reception and in spite of the controversies, the Academy would still be willing to nominate Tenet. And in my opinion, they should be willing. For those who care about theatrical releases, Tenet absolutely has a narrative--all a film needs is a narrative, really. "At a time when everything else is abandoning theatrical release, Tenet is the sole film that's willing to give it a try" is the narrative they'd consider.

 

And hopefully they would be able to consider an "okay" Nolan film, because if they're willing to consider "okay" biopics and "okay" oscar-bait all the time, then they should theoretically be willing to consider an "okay" blockbuster like Tenet. They know that ratings are on the line, and they'd be desperate enough to buy into Warner Bros.' campaign. Maybe in 2003 when there were only five nominees, it'd end up like Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl, which currently holds a 79% on Rotten Tomatoes--that film received five nominations, most of them in technical categories (and I wonder, if Return of the King hadn't released that year, and if it were a 10-nominee field, would they have included Curse of the Black Pearl--I think they would, actually...). But with an 8-or-9-film nominee field without any blockbuster competition and an Academy pressured by external forces to nominate populist films, Tenet may still be within the realm of possibility. And even if the film isn't doing so well box office wise, Warner Bros. may want to use Tenet's nomination as a means of maintaining Christopher Nolan's image of being a prestige director. I'm not saying the nomination is guaranteed by any means, but I'm saying it's still within the realm of possibility.

Of course it's not completely outside the realm of possibility, but that's only because it's really the only major release that had Oscar buzz once upon a time that isn't from a streaming company that stayed put in The Year Without Movies (a gamble that didn't work out for them). Lack of passion for the movie itself hurts more than anything else though. In an alternate universe where 2020 had gone as planned and it made between double to triple what its domestic total is looking to end up being its chances would be deemed dead and buried right now.

[lorddemaxus]

David Sims ranked Hillbilly Elegy as the 4th worst movie of the year: https://letterboxd.com/davidlsims/list/2020/. It's just one review but I have a hard time seeing this get good reviews.

[RealLyre]

with soul going to Disney+, there will possibly be 6 best picture nominees from streamers.

 

Mank, Trial of the Chicago 7, One Night in Miami, Ma Rainey's Black bottom, soul and da 5 bloods.

 

a record to be sure

[lorddemaxus]

8 hours ago, RealLyre said:

with soul going to Disney+, there will possibly be 6 best picture nominees from streamers.

 

Mank, Trial of the Chicago 7, One Night in Miami, Ma Rainey's Black bottom, soul and da 5 bloods.

 

a record to be sure

Netflix probably isn't getting 4 films in though. I'm skeptical of Da 5 Bloods getting anything other than Lindo nomination and Ma Rainey's seems more like this year's Two Popes to me, where I only see Netflix really campaigning for acting.

[RealLyre]

2 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

Netflix probably isn't getting 4 films in though. I'm skeptical of Da 5 Bloods getting anything other than Lindo nomination and Ma Rainey's seems more like this year's Two Popes to me, where I only see Netflix really campaigning for acting.

I might be wrong but with Dune and The French Dispatch going to next year (and no word on whether Judas will make it in time or not) I do not see a scenario in which BOTH da 5 bloods and Ma Rainey's Black Bottom don't make it in best picture. one of them will get nominated imo

 

if we assume that the top 5 is
Nomadland
Mank

Chicago 7
Miami
News of the World

That leaves 3-5 spots for:

Soul
The Father
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom 
The United States vs Billie Holiday
Da 5 Bloods
Tenet (?)
Minari 

I would say their chances are more likely than not. hillbilly elegy could be this year's The Two Popes and get the acting nods, although probably with much worse reviews (like a yellow MC score)

 

 

[filmlover]

This might be a year where they just go back to 5 nominees due to lack of movies to avoid cancelling the ceremony completely. I doubt they even care about the ratings at this point (especially when there's a chance the event might have to go virtual anyway depending on what the world looks like by late April). Wouldn't be a bad idea since the 10 nominee rule doesn't kick in until next year.

[lorddemaxus]

1 hour ago, RealLyre said:

I would say their chances are more likely than not. hillbilly elegy could be this year's The Two Popes and get the acting nods, although probably with much worse reviews (like a yellow MC score)

Hillbilly Elegy gonna be more in the red territory I think. The current political climate is gonna really just alienate the academy too.

 

I think Netflix won't get 4 films in because I don't a studio has even managed to get more than 3 films in once this decade, and I think the only time a studio did get 3 films in was in the 2018 Oscars I think. It's really because a studio can really only campaign two of their films properly (and Netflix is going all out with Mank and Trials). I think Ma Rainey is way more likely to get nominated than Da 5 Bloods but I'm not certain that either film will get in.

[filmlover]

If Hillbilly Elegy turns out bad that'll sting for poor Close since this seemed like the one year where it seemed like it was finally gonna be Her Moment. 

 

Wouldn't be surprised though, pretty sure it's the only remaining major Netflix title that doesn't have either a date or official stills released.

[SLAM!]

I think people might be sleeping on Respect. I have a nagging feeling that it'll be better than people are anticipating it to be. If it's as good as Bohemian Rhapsody, then it has an easy way into the race.