Mufasa: The Lion King | December 20, 2024 | Barry Jenkins | Prequel to Favreau's CGI Version | See the original movie in theaters on July 12

[toutvabien]

What type of engagement does the trailer have on IG/Tik Tok? It's below 4M views on their main YT with 74K likes and 130K dislikes as of this moment (22 hours).

[toutvabien]

Expecting Little Mermaid numbers tbh, but OS-heavy.

[JustLurking]

The dislike extension truly needs to die, I'm tired of explaining those numbers are not real.

 

That said trailer views seem unimpressive, and I don't see much of anything going on in the trailer for the sudden wave of enthusiasm towards the film. I'd easily take the under on 1b, though some of the harsher predictions going around for this were too bearish even for me anyway.

[Arlborn]

600M-1B range for me, for now (big I know, will narrow it down in some months)

 

Edited April 30 by Arlborn

[Liiviig 1998]

Post pandemic 700m+ OS grossers.

 

NWH

TGM

Avatar 2

Super Mario

Barbie.

 

You see that company . Yeah definitely most of them are still NTCs but these were still event movies.

 

Even with franchises , audiences have become very picky. Even big time franchises need hooks , novelty,heavy nostalgia and really strong wom to bring in audiences in. Its not prepandemic where name was enough to bring in audiences.

 

Inside out 2, despicable ME 4,Joker2, Deadpool are the most anticipated movies this year and even I'm not sure 700m+ OS is happening for any of these.

 

Factor in china abandonment of Hollywood.

 

Look here ,who knows this could be WOM monster and it pulls off some huge numbers but in terms of anticipation it's just bleh . TLK 2019 was a live action to one of the most iconic pieces of cinema . It's why it made a tone of money .

Don't know why we expect the same of a mufasa prequel ? 

 

100M+ OW Christmas period ain't an easy feet as you think.

 

Starwars movies,NWH massive pull and hype. Avatar 2 for a legacy sequel only made 134M.

 

Mufasa ain't these atleast from what I'm seeing.

 

We have been  looking at this as  a TLK sequel when it's just a prequel and think GA will do the same and treat as it is. It won't benefit or carry much momentum  from 2019 if it had any.  It may  fall into the "prequel" trap .

 

If this was actual lion king 2 . I can guarantee thant  would have gotten more traction and chatter than "MUFASA"

 

350-500M+ OS  . Just don't see making more than lows 800s.

 

 

 

 

[ListenHunnyUrOver]

Not My Mufasa

[TheFlatLannister]

4 hours ago, toutvabien said:

What type of engagement does the trailer have on IG/Tik Tok? It's below 4M views on their main YT with 74K likes and 130K dislikes as of this moment (22 hours).

Not great at all. But that won’t mean much since this is more of a family movie for the Holidays. Social media engagement is better to gauge interest for heavy fanbase stuff 

[GipJo]

5 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Not great at all. But that won’t mean much since this is more of a family movie for the Holidays. Social media engagement is better to gauge interest for heavy fanbase stuff 

Unless you live under a rock, you know the way of consuming entertainment has changed. Even if I want to entertain my child I wouldn't want to spend god knows how much on a theater trip. I could just open my Disney+ and call it a day. Unless there is a event film there is no need to go to the theater. That's why social media chatter is important now more than ever. It could make film a event that you can't miss.

[TMP]

The way this site gasses up sonic 3 is nuts. In no universe is sonic a bigger IP than the lion king, i’m sorry haha

[PlatnumRoyce]

5 hours ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

Even with franchises , audiences have become very picky. Even big time franchises need hooks , novelty,heavy nostalgia and really strong wom to bring in audiences in.

Jurassic World had moderate nostalgia, no novelty and weak word of mouth. It turns out kids really love dinos

[HummingLemon496]

3 hours ago, TMP said:

The way this site gasses up sonic 3 is nuts. In no universe is sonic a bigger IP than the lion king, i’m sorry haha

For real lmao, it's unclear if the entire Sonic trilogy combined will even make 3/4ths of Lion King 2019 WW. OS specifically TLK is at $1119M, unclear if Sonic trilogy will even do 3/5ths of that. And according to u/AgentCooper315 on Reddit, TLK 19 sold more tickets globally than Star Wars: The Force Awakens despite grossing $400M less. 

Edited April 30 by HummingLemon496

[HummingLemon496]

9 hours ago, JustLurking said:

The dislike extension truly needs to die, I'm tired of explaining those numbers are not real.

 

That said trailer views seem unimpressive, and I don't see much of anything going on in the trailer for the sudden wave of enthusiasm towards the film. I'd easily take the under on 1b, though some of the harsher predictions going around for this were too bearish even for me anyway.

Nah, as somebody who supports Disney and wants Mufasa to succeed, those Dislikes definitely are real. It makes perfect sense why Mufasa would get dislike bombed. Stuff like Marvels, Madame Web, Little Mermaid also got disliked bombed and it makes sense why those got tons of dislikes too.

[WittyUsername]

3 hours ago, TMP said:

The way this site gasses up sonic 3 is nuts. In no universe is sonic a bigger IP than the lion king, i’m sorry haha

It wouldn’t really need to be a bigger IP to hypothetically make more at the box office. I still think this’ll make more worldwide, but Sonic 3 winning at the domestic box office wouldn’t surprise me at this point. 

[TMP]

4 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

It wouldn’t really need to be a bigger IP to hypothetically make more at the box office. I still think this’ll make more worldwide, but Sonic 3 winning at the domestic box office wouldn’t surprise me at this point. 

Idk. I dont see why it would do much more than sonic 2 tbh; shadow adding to sonic 3 feels like when people said moriarty would add to holmes 2 gross

[dudalb]

6 hours ago, GipJo said:

Unless you live under a rock, you know the way of consuming entertainment has changed. Even if I want to entertain my child I wouldn't want to spend god knows how much on a theater trip. I could just open my Disney+ and call it a day. Unless there is a event film there is no need to go to the theater. That's why social media chatter is important now more than ever. It could make film a event that you can't miss.

We have a  problem ion htis site is the vast majority of posters are probably in the 16 to 25 SINGLE age group and don't get how expensive an outing to the movies can be for a family. And it the last couple of years Inflation has cut deeply into a lot of people's entertaiment budget.

Streaming has changed the whole dynamics of the film industry in a way not seen since the advent of Television in the l late 40's and early 50's , where it cut movie attendence by 40%,

As for this specific movie, I think how it is received will be important. If it comes off like a weak sequel.prequel to a classic, it will not do nearly as well as some people there think.

[cannastop]

23 hours ago, MikeQ said:

Honestly, the remake (and now this sequel) could have been really cool if they went in a Pixar animation direction. A film that is still clearly animated, with all of the stylistic benefits this entails in capturing the heart and humour of the original, but that also benefits from the incredible detail and realism of this style of animation (incredible textures, lighting, shadows, hair/fur, etc).

well you wouldn't get Barry Jenkins to do that.

Also I think I would like that idea even less.

What studio would even do that? It would be a waste of WDAS's time to make these movies tbh.

[dudalb]

3 minutes ago, cannastop said:

well you wouldn't get Barry Jenkins to do that.

Also I think I would like that idea even less.

What studio would even do that? It would be a waste of WDAS's time to make these movies tbh.

If WDAS movies are going to be just like Pixar films, just merge the two studios  and save money on the overhead.

[cannastop]

2 minutes ago, dudalb said:

If WDAS movies are going to be just like Pixar films, just merge the two studios  and save money on the overhead.

That won't happen. The closest possibility is that they just shut down WDAS tbh. If they make too many movies like Strange World and Wish...

[dudalb]

14 minutes ago, cannastop said:

That won't happen. The closest possibility is that they just shut down WDAS tbh. If they make too many movies like Strange World and Wish...

I know it won't happen, but still it has a certain logic if WDAS just mskes it film into imitations of PIxar films, like a certain poster proposed...

[MysteryMovieMogul]

1 hour ago, dudalb said:

We have a  problem ion htis site is the vast majority of posters are probably in the 16 to 25 SINGLE age group and don't get how expensive an outing to the movies can be for a family. And it the last couple of years Inflation has cut deeply into a lot of people's entertaiment budget.

Streaming has changed the whole dynamics of the film industry in a way not seen since the advent of Television in the l late 40's and early 50's , where it cut movie attendence by 40%,

As for this specific movie, I think how it is received will be important. If it comes off like a weak sequel.prequel to a classic, it will not do nearly as well as some people there think.

The thing is, even if there was no Mufasa, I don't see why Sonic 3 would miraculously turn into an event. Because Mufasa simply exists, suddenly Sonic 3 is going to do $200m more than Sonic 2? I just don't buy it.

 

As for Mufasa, I'm not convinced this will do over $1 Billion, but it's Audience Score is in the high 80s, while Captain Marvel's is rotten.