lorddemaxus Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 (edited) 3 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said: Neither of the two screenplay winners is going win so that’s a moot point. Promising Young Woman has a pretty decent shot. So does The Father (but less than PYW), due to British support and momentum due to the recent release. Both films also have a really good shot at one of the acting categories. Edited April 26, 2021 by lorddemaxus Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HouseOfTheSun Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 (edited) 2 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said: Promising Young Woman has a pretty decent shot. So does The Father (but less than PYW), due to British support and momentum due to the recent release. Nah. Will be between Nomadland, Chicago 7, and Minari Edited April 26, 2021 by HouseOfTheSun Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamiem Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 Also pretty sure Disney only sold out their ad load for the ceremony due to the fact that close to half the ads are from themselves 😂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 Just now, Jamiem said: Enjoying this oscars much more than the normal inside baseball humour it normally has, much better paced in my opinion. Chloe’s speech was great and awesome for them to get Bong back to present best director. I actually don't mind the overall pace of this show (it's certainly preferable to how bloated most of the last several ceremonies have become), it's just odd how they aren't really showcasing any of the movies nominated with no clips, etc. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamiem Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 Just now, filmlover said: I actually don't mind the overall pace of this show (it's certainly preferable to how bloated most of the last several ceremonies have become), it's just odd how they aren't really showcasing any of the movies nominated with no clips, etc. Yeah that’s a fair criticism, focusing more on the cast and crew rather than clip packages bar a couple of categories so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 Just now, HouseOfTheSun said: Nah If you have actually been following this year's race, it's a yes. I mean I wouldn't be on them winning over Nomadland winning but Nomadland definitely isn't a locked win. There's a pretty good shot at an upset. Cinematography is more likely than Picture. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HouseOfTheSun Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 1 minute ago, Jamiem said: Also pretty sure Disney only sold out their ad load for the ceremony due to the fact that close to half the ads are from themselves 😂 Might be by design. Oscars will still drive better ratings than anything that’s not nfl, and they’re in full throttle growth mode so ABCs ad revenue is immaterial Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HouseOfTheSun Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 1 minute ago, lorddemaxus said: If you have actually been following this year's race, it's a yes. I mean I wouldn't be on them winning over Nomadland winning but Nomadland definitely isn't a locked win. There's a pretty good shot at an upset. Cinematography is more likely than Picture. If anyone is winning on momentum it’s Minari Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamiem Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 Just now, HouseOfTheSun said: Might be by design. Oscars will still drive better ratings than anything that’s not nfl, and they’re in full throttle growth mode so ABCs ad revenue is immaterial Yeah that probably plays a part, still quite funny though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 (edited) 2 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said: If anyone is winning on momentum it’s Minari Not really, Minari was at its peak around Feb. That SAG loss hurt it quite a bit. Minari is unlikely to win with just a supporting actress win. I'd put it 4th. The top 3 at this point is probably Nomadland, PYW, and The Father. Edited April 26, 2021 by lorddemaxus Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cap Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 All is right In the world. 😭 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HouseOfTheSun Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 Just now, lorddemaxus said: Not really, Minari was at its peak around Feb. That SAG loss hurt it quite a bit. Minari is unlikely to win with just a supporting actor win. I'd put it 4th. The top 3 at this point is probably Nomadland, PYW, and The Father. The father is like dead last in betting markets. Promising young women is on the outside looking at the big 3. Very very on the outside. Awards momentum is not the only thing. Social momentum is probably a much bigger influencer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 Just now, HouseOfTheSun said: The father is like dead last in betting markets. Promising young women is on the outside looking at the big 3. Very very on the outside. Awards momentum is not the only thing. Social momentum is probably a much bigger influencer. True. A Minari win won't be surprising Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 Watch Chicago 7 win Best Picture in a last minute twist like it did SAG. @Cap when that happens be like: "Oh for the love of Christine Baranski." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 Reese giving this shoutout to The Secret of Nimh is giving me life. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 (edited) 7 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said: The father is like dead last in betting markets. Promising young women is on the outside looking at the big 3. Very very on the outside. Awards momentum is not the only thing. Social momentum is probably a much bigger influencer. By betting markets, you mean goldderby lol? They have Trial at 3rd, eventhough it's going to go home empty handed. Social momentum is barely existent for all the movies nominated. What matters is when the actual voters are watching the movies. Edited April 26, 2021 by lorddemaxus Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RealLyre Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 it's clear they showed director this early so people would already know who was gonna win best picture if they don't wanna stick around for another 1 and a half of this boring ceremony. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric is Anxious Posted April 26, 2021 Author Share Posted April 26, 2021 lol we're never getting a non-Pixar winner Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Squibbonator Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 Soul won Best Animated. Pixar does it again. In other news, water is wet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HouseOfTheSun Posted April 26, 2021 Share Posted April 26, 2021 1 minute ago, lorddemaxus said: By betting markets, you mean goldderby lol? They have Trial at 3rd, eventhough it's going to go home empty handed. Social momentum is barely existent for all the movies nominated. What matters is when the actual voters are watching the movies. Nope. Like 3 other sites Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...