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Eric Duncan

Best Picture Predictions - 2021

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Couple of notes from a new Vanity Fair article: https://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2021/10/awards-insider-oscars-2022-predictions-frontrunners

 

Cooper, Blanchett, and Collette have been getting good buzz from early Nightmare Alley screenings

Bradley Cooper and Sean Penn have limited screentime in Licorice Pizza

Nobody knows what's happening with House of Gucci and West Side Story

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If neither Cooper or Penn happen, Supporting Actor will be even worse. That said, Rockwell had limited screen time in Vice and Dern in Wild. 
 

Gucci had test screenings recently. It’s supposedly over 2 and a half hours long. MGM is probably nervous about reviews and box office. 
 

You’d think a Spielberg Christmas musical would be a hit but maybe Fox/Disney doesn’t care? Last Duel bombed for them. They’ve been promoting Kingsmen harder because it’s a franchise 

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13 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

You’d think a Spielberg Christmas musical would be a hit but maybe Fox/Disney doesn’t care? Last Duel bombed for them. They’ve been promoting Kingsmen harder because it’s a franchise 

It's possible that Elgort's accusation from last year is on their radar and they're concerned that it might be revived as some sort of awards season controversy, though given the fact that accusation barely received any attention from major news outlets last year when it happened (don't think any of the trades picked up on it until he addressed it?), the chances of that going further than the "cancel culture/trial by social media" section of Twitter seems very slim. Its biggest hurdle is that it's mainly going to appeal to a really old audience, one that still hasn't come back to theaters in full force for anything. Though if everything is fizzling this year due to audiences just plain not showing up during an ongoing pandemic then financial success or failure becomes largely irrelevant.

Edited by filmlover
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On 10/24/2021 at 11:30 AM, filmlover said:

It's possible that Elgort's accusation from last year is on their radar and they're concerned that it might be revived as some sort of awards season controversy, though given the fact that accusation barely received any attention from major news outlets last year when it happened (don't think any of the trades picked up on it until he addressed it?), the chances of that going further than the "cancel culture/trial by social media" section of Twitter seems very slim. Its biggest hurdle is that it's mainly going to appeal to a really old audience, one that still hasn't come back to theaters in full force for anything. Though if everything is fizzling this year due to audiences just plain not showing up during an ongoing pandemic then financial success or failure becomes largely irrelevant.

This is apparently the case: https://www.worldofreel.com/blog/2021/10/bfllomixawcyuji5rrr4v3uqn1lml4

 

Quote

Yesterday, as I was emailing around, asking critics from major trades if they had seen PTA’s “Licorice Pizza” (none had), one of them replied to my message this way:

“No, I haven’t. Surely, it’ll be screened before the Spielberg, which I’m hearing has 20th century biting its nails in fear of backlash.”

The conversation went on, but I fear this seasoned trade critic is right. What is 20th Century going to do with Spielberg’s “West Side Story”? The film has been in the can for well over a year now and there was no reason for it to skip any of the fall festivals.

 

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13 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

In fairness, it would've skipped all the festivals in its original release date last year too. Spielberg movies are pretty much never seen until close to release date and he was too busy shooting his next movie (The Fabelmans) anyway.

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2 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Rumor is Will Smith is not vaccinated/anti-vax. If this is true and catches on, wonder how much it'll hurt his campaign

Edit: apparently not the case anymore:

 

 

Edited by WrathOfHan
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On 10/29/2021 at 3:42 PM, filmlover said:

In fairness, it would've skipped all the festivals in its original release date last year too. Spielberg movies are pretty much never seen until close to release date and he was too busy shooting his next movie (The Fabelmans) anyway.

 

That's all true and maybe the movie will not sink because of the controversy, but you don't really need an insider to tell you that everyone behind this is terrified of that conversation coming back. There's been 3-4 teaser/trailer/first looks already and Ansel has been hidden in every single one of them, he has maybe one line in the entire trailer.

Without the controversy the iconic love story would have been plastered all over the marketing. Right now it's just been promoted vaguely as a ensemble piece , hoping that everybody already knows about the original and that it's a take on romeo and juliet. Because the trailers have been really obscuring that last part.

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1 hour ago, Joel M said:

 

That's all true and maybe the movie will not sink because of the controversy, but you don't really need an insider to tell you that everyone behind this is terrified of that conversation coming back. There's been 3-4 teaser/trailer/first looks already and Ansel has been hidden in every single one of them, he has maybe one line in the entire trailer.

Without the controversy the iconic love story would have been plastered all over the marketing. Right now it's just been promoted vaguely as a ensemble piece , hoping that everybody already knows about the original and that it's a take on romeo and juliet. Because the trailers have been really obscuring that last part.

Funnily enough, there is a big standee at the theater I saw The Last Duel at this past weekend that features big images of both him and Zegler so it seems unfair to say they are completely hiding him heh.

 

Edit: here's a photo online of that standee:

 

Top Tweets for #WestSideStory on Twitter. - TwStalker

 

But it seems unlikely this will come back in any major way unless his accuser returns to press charges (which seems unlikely since his accuser took the "I'm just gonna leave this here gotta run bye" approach to allegations that are never to be treated lightly, hence why none of the major publications picked up on the story). The days when tabloid scandals would automatically generate a major stir is definitely in the past, and he's also still been getting work since then (he's the lead of that Michael Mann HBO Max show that's due sometime next year).

Edited by filmlover
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So I'm watching the trailer for Belfast while waiting to see Soho and for some reason it was making me emotional. Idk, but it looks like the grandpa dies and I think there'd be more emotional impact were it Dench. I just have a fondness for her and she's entering the twilight period. Maybe that's what did it. 

 

I see right now Dune, Belfast, WSS, Gucci for BP. 

As far as what else will be nominated, it doesn't look like there is anything left on the schedule that screams nomination. I think the rest is gonna be filled by stuff no one has even seen to any degree like Nomadland level. 

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