Best Picture Predictions - 2021

[SLAM!]

(pasted from Hollywood Reporter)

 

Find the full list of European Film Awards nominees below.

 

European Film 

Compartment No. 6, dir. Juho Kuosmanen
The Father, dir. Florian Zeller
The Hand of God, dir. Paolo Sorrentino
Titane, dir. Julia Ducournau
Quo Vadis, Aida?, dir. Jasmila Zbanic

 

European Director 

Julia Ducornau for Titane
Radu Jude for Bad Luck Banging or Loony Porn
Paolo Sorrentino for The Hand of God
Jasmila Zbanic for Quo Vadis, Aida?
Florian Zeller for The Father

 

European Actress

Jasna Duricic in Quo Vadis, Aida?
Seidi Haarla in Compartment No. 6
Carey Mulligan in Promising Young Woman
Renate Reinsve in The Worst Person in the World
Agathe Rousselle in Titane

 

European Actor 

Yuriy Borisov in Compartment No. 6
Anthony Hopkins in The Father
Vincent Lindon in Titane
Tahar Rahim in The Mauritanian
Franz Rogowski in Great Freedom

 

European Screenwriter

Radu Jude for Bad Luck Banging or Loony Porn
Paolo Sorrentino for The Hand of God
Joachim Trier, Eskil Vogt for The Worst Person in the World
Jasmila Zbanic for Quo Vadis, Aida?
Florian Zeller, Christopher Hampton for The Father

 

European Comedy

Ninjababy, dir. Yngvild Sve Flikke
The Morning After, dir. Méliane Marcaggi
The People Upstairs, dir. Cesc Gay

 

European Animated Feature Film 

Flee, dir. Jonas Poher Rasmussen
Even Mice Belong in Heaven, dirs.Jan Bubenicek, Denisa Grimmová
The Ape Star, dir. Linda Hamback
Where is Anne Frank, dir. Ari Folman
Wolfwalkers, dir. Tomm Moore, Ross Stewart

 

European Documentary 

Babi Yar, Context, dir. Sergei Loznitsa
Flee, dir. Jonas Poher Rasmussen
Mr. Bachmann and his Class, dir. Maria Speth
Taming the Garden, dir. Salomé Jashi
The Most Beautiful Boy in the World, dirs. Kristina Lindström, Kristian Petri

 

European Discovery – Prix Fipresci

Beginning, dir. Dea Kulumbegashvili
Lamb, dir. Valdimar Jóhannsson
Playground, dir. Laura Wandel
Pleasure, dir. Ninja Thyberg
Promising Young Woman, dir. Emerald Fennell
The Whaler Boy, dir. Philipp Yuryev

[Cmasterclay]

Feels like King Richard, Power of the Dog, Belfast, Dune, and Licorice Pizza are going to be in. I'd feel very comfortable putting those five in Best Picture and predicting them. The other five in BP.......who knows. I can see 10+ movies with a legit case.

[WrathOfHan]

1 hour ago, Cmasterclay said:

Feels like King Richard, Power of the Dog, Belfast, Dune, and Licorice Pizza are going to be in. I'd feel very comfortable putting those five in Best Picture and predicting them. The other five in BP.......who knows. I can see 10+ movies with a legit case.

I'd add Nightmare Alley to make it a comfortable Top 6 (which could backfire on me in a few weeks). However, I think we're going to see only 4/6 of these make it into Director. Gold Derby's top 5 is currently Campion, Branagh, Villeneuve, GDT, and PTA. After LP's reactions, I would put him in third with Branagh down to 4th or 5th. Joel Coen is currently 6th with Green down in 7th, but I have a feeling it'd be a newcomer like Gyllenhaal/LMM or an international director than a mainstay like Coen or Spielberg.

Edited November 12, 2021 by WrathOfHan

[lorddemaxus]

Sorkin's trying as hard as possible to get his film not nominated at all lol (or maybe he's getting ahead of the curve so there won't be any controversies when the movie releases).

Edited November 12, 2021 by lorddemaxus

[Blankments]

I saw Tick Tick Boom and although I really liked it, I’m a musical nerd who loves theater; I think it approaches its subject matter with too niche a perspective to get any noms honestly

[Cmasterclay]

I could see Garfield in for Best Actor but only one of him and Dinklage is getting in from the "weird musicals" niche. Smith, Cumberbatch, and Denzel are likely locked, so that means that Dinklage, Garfield, DiCaprio, Cooper, Ali, Barden, Driver, Hoffman, Collins, and Simon Rex are all contending for last two spots. 

 

Personally, as someone who used to blast "My Dick" when I was 13 years old, I'm rooting for Simon Rex.

[filmlover]

2 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

I could see Garfield in for Best Actor but only one of him and Dinklage is getting in from the "weird musicals" niche. Smith, Cumberbatch, and Denzel are likely locked, so that means that Dinklage, Garfield, DiCaprio, Cooper, Ali, Barden, Driver, Hoffman, Collins, and Simon Rex are all contending for last two spots. 

 

Personally, as someone who used to blast "My Dick" when I was 13 years old, I'm rooting for Simon Rex.

Dinklage's movie feels like a nonstarter. Garfield's movie likely isn't going many places either but he has a realistic shot at places like SAG given how baity his role is plus how ubiquitous he is this fall between this, Tammy Faye, and a possible cameo in what is destined to be among the biggest movies of the year.

[Cmasterclay]

Based on early reviews I'm betting Being the Ricardos gets in for Picture, Screenplay, Actress, and Supporting Actor. It is getting "contender" buzz from the legit pundits like Buchanan, Feinberg, etc who only chime in when they think something has a real shot, so I'm buying it - not to win, but probably as my 6th or 7th right now along with Nightmare Alley.

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Based on early reviews I'm betting Being the Ricardos gets in for Picture, Screenplay, Actress, and Supporting Actor. It is getting "contender" buzz from the legit pundits like Buchanan, Feinberg, etc who only chime in when they think something has a real shot, so I'm buying it - not to win, but probably as my 6th or 7th right now along with Nightmare Alley.

Bardem or Simmons? Bc Bardem is being submitted in lead.

[Cmasterclay]

8 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Bardem or Simmons? Bc Bardem is being submitted in lead.

Simmons. Getting praise everywhere and the category is weak. Bardem theoretically could get in for Lead but much more stacked category.

[Cmasterclay]

Saw Belfast earlier today and yes absolutely this movie can win Best Picture people. I still have Richard number one but it's a mega likable movie. Would be better than several winners from this decade tbh.

[Krissykins]

On 11/13/2021 at 2:32 AM, Cmasterclay said:

and Simon Rex are all contending for last two spots. 

 

Personally, as someone who used to blast "My Dick" when I was 13 years old, I'm rooting for Simon Rex.

love seeing this lol, it’s so random. 
 

If Simon Rex is nominated, that’s a very Hollywood story for his campaign. Good for him. 

[Krissykins]

I’m ready for someone else to win best actress over Frances. Love her, but yeh someone else should get it. 
 

Kristen is a shoe in, she was sensational in Spencer. Best I’ve seen all year in film (no one is beating Kate Winslet in Mare of Easttown IMO). 

Can’t wait to see Gaga in House of Gucci and I hope it’s another nomination for her. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

 

 

Alana Haim is coming

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

Will the Academy really vote for a movie called Licorice Pizza as Best Picture? Also, with the subject matter and general whiteness (I know Maya Rudolph is in it, but not a lead), frontrunner status will make for quite the Discourse. I don't know how much Film Twitter really matters to Oscar voters, but if a movie that racks up a lot of wins along the way "fails to live up to the hype" in some way that can cause a favorite to stumble and something else to cross the finish line.

Edited November 16, 2021 by BoxOfficeFangrl

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

31 minutes ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

Will the Academy really vote for a movie called Licorice Pizza as Best Picture? Also, with the subject matter and general whiteness (I know Maya Rudolph is in it, but not a lead), frontrunner status will make for quite the Discourse. I don't know how much Film Twitter really matters to Oscar voters, but if a movie that racks up a lot of wins along the way "fails to live up to the hype" in some way that can cause a favorite to stumble and something else to cross the finish line.

It's PTA and it's the highest rated film of the year so far. So yes they will vote for it. It will have passion. King Richard is really the only diverse contender this year. It's sadly very white overall. West Side Story too up in the air

 

Belfast still has frontrunner status, though. Licorice Pizza might be too insular to broadly win BP but it'll probably receive lots of noms and compete to win Screenplay

Edited November 16, 2021 by BestPicturePlutoNash

[filmlover]

Licorice Pizza is easily my most anticipated movie for the remainder of the year so thrilled with these raves. Who would've guessed that one of the HAIM girls would end up in serious consideration for an acting nomination?

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

With Thanksgiving approaching and first critic awards weeks away:

 

PICTURE:

Being the Ricardos

Belfast

Don't Look Up

Dune

King Richard

Licorice Pizza

Macbeth

Nightmare Alley

Power of the Dog

West Side Story

(alt: Coda. It can make SAG + WGA. Cmon Cmon might also be underrated)

 

DIRECTOR:

Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza

Kenneth Branagh, Belfast

Jane Campion, Power of the Dog

Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley

Denis Villeneuve, Dune

(alt: Joel Coen, Macbeth)

 

ACTOR:

Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley

Benedict Cumberbatch, Power of the Dog

Leonardo DiCaprio, Don't Look Up

Will Smith, King Richard

Denzel Washington, Macbeth

(alt: Andrew Garfield, Tick Tick Boom. I'm very close to predicting Garfield but I think he needs Don't Look Up to flop and Leo to drop)

 

ACTRESS: (what a category)

Jessica Chastain, Tammy Faye

Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza

Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos

Frances McDormand, Macbeth

Kristen Stewart, Spencer

(alt: Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter. I really want to go Colman since she's in career sweep spot and Netflix is great at nominations but I can't shake off Chastain still happening for such a showy performance. And Haim/Mcdormand will have big films with lots of support. Gaga feels like the snub after Globes and SAG. Cruz is going to suffer to compete with critic prizes. Maybe Hudson can have a comeback)

 

SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza

Jamie Dornan, Belfast

Ciaran Hinds, Belfast

Jared Leto, House of Gucci

Kodi Smit-McPhee, Power of the Dog

(alt: Jon Bernthal, King Richard/JK Simmons, Being the Ricardos)

 

SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

Cait Balfe, Belfast

Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley

Judi Dench, Belfast

Kirsten Dunst, Power of the Dog

Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard

(alt: Marlee Matlin, Coda. Ariana deBose looks outstanding, though!)

 

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

Being the Ricardos

Belfast

Don't Look Up

King Richard

Licorice Pizza

(alt: Cmon Cmon)

 

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

Coda

The Lost Daughter

Macbeth

Nightmare Alley

Power of the Dog

(alt: Passing)

[Blankments]

On 11/15/2021 at 8:50 AM, Krissykins said:

love seeing this lol, it’s so random. 
 

If Simon Rex is nominated, that’s a very Hollywood story for his campaign. Good for him. 

i've seen red rocket; simon rex is not getting nominated. The character is less likable than Howie in Uncut Gems lol

[WrathOfHan]

Edit: disregard these predicts. Don't Look Up is getting great reactions  

Edited November 19, 2021 by WrathOfHan