poweranimals Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 2 hours ago, AniNate said: Cameron uber alles. You challenge him at your own peril. And frankly quality wise there's far more uncertainty w/ Aquaman than Avatar. The original was already riding on mostly brand appeal to its success, I'm not sure that will fly so much with a sequel. I concur. Especially with both movies focusing around the underwater theme, Aquaman will look cheap compared to Avatar. I don't think Disney will be the one to blink. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXRDJisDoctorDoom Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Updated Predictions, Release Order Morbius $38M OW - $96M DOM - $177M OS - $74M China Uncharted $44M OW - $103M DOM - $196M OS - $83M China The Batman $146M OW - $370M DOM - $586M OS - $135M China Turning Red $59M OW - $178M DOM - $361M OS - $116M China Sonic the Hedgehog 2 $68M OW - $166M DOM - $224M OS - $25M China Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore $53M OW - $122M DOM - $383M OS - $69M China Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness $171M OW - $429M DOM - $653M OS - $172M China Top Gun: Maverick $73M OW - $203M DOM - $284M OS - $45M China Jurassic World: Dominion $156M OW - $440M DOM - $625M OS - $293M China Lightyear $112M OW - $381M DOM - $540M OS - $51M China Thor: Love and Thunder $189M OW - $475M DOM - $640M OS - $183M China Black Adam $94M OW - $267M DOM - $371M OS - $88M China Misson Impossible 7 $80M OW - $239M DOM - $404M OS - $209M China Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Part One) $66M OW - $215M DOM - $208M OS - $86M China The Flash $91M OW - $240M DOM - $316M OS - $110M China Black Panther: Wakanda Forever $225M OW - $610M DOM - $628M OS - $127M China Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom $95M OW - $303M DOM - $516M OS - $319M China Avatar 2 $152M OW - $540M DOM - $1210M OS - $775M China Notes: I will not be updating this list. These are my thoughts/opinions as to what these films will do BEFORE most of them start any major marketing or press. I want to see how accurate my long range thoughts are. I'm sure some will be horribly off and others will be surprisingly close. Obviously there are factors I can't account for but all of these are made under the assumption that there are no restrictions/lockdowns in any market during the films run and no other unforeseen issues. It also assumes all of these films maintain their current release date 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poweranimals Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Do you know something the rest of us don't know about China? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXRDJisDoctorDoom Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, poweranimals said: Do you know something the rest of us don't know about China? Me? No. Hence why I broke it out from the rest of the international numbers. If something does or doesn't release there, my other numbers aren't effected. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanks Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 (edited) About Avatar's Prediction, what are chances that Adults above 40, will start watching movies next year? Problem is Christmas - It will be time When New Corona Variant will come again. Only Young Adults/Young people will come out in horde and those people will skew more towards Aqua-man than Avatar. I think initially Aquaman will stay ahead for few weeks and in late January is when Avatar will surpass Aquaman, but How far it can go - is too tough to tell without even watching the trailers. Another thing is - Cameron has delivered decades after decades, so the concept of "World has changed" doesn't really apply to his movies. Maybe, Avatar will be the movie which will make the Adults above 40+ really move out and go watch Cinema again and If that happens ~ Few Billions are going down. Edited December 30, 2021 by Shanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 I'm hoping if there's another covid surge next winter it will be so benign at that point that it won't even register in the news Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonahVex Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 I think people over 40 will come out for a big tentpole like Avatar, they just won't come out for adult drama's during a pandemic, assuming COVID doesn't drastically worsen to like 2020 levels or something, there's probably a good 10-12 movies that are "pandemic proof" imo next year 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoMisfits Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Avatar opening weekend demos...from Deadline...no diversity breakdowns, but even opening weekend, this skews to an older audience (without now counting the years since the 1st one)...https://deadline.com/2009/12/first-word-avatar-midnights-only-3-million-even-with-higher-3d-ticket-prices-hollywood-now-predicting-85m-weekend-20507/ "The pic received a Cinemascore of “A” across every qu(a)drant. In terms of audience demos, exit polling showed 57% male/43% female, and 38% under age 25/62% over age 25." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 (edited) I'm thinking Jurassic World 3 wins the first half of this year and Avatar is its competition in the second half for the #1 movie of the year Edited January 1, 2022 by Maggie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXRDJisDoctorDoom Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 9 minutes ago, Maggie said: I'm thinking Jurassic World 3 wins the first half of this year and Avatar is its competition in the second half for the #1 movie of the year Worldwide or domestically? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, RiddlerXXR said: Worldwide or domestically? domestic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WittyUsername Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 I guess I’m predicting that DS2 wins the first half of the year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXRDJisDoctorDoom Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Maggie said: domestic Hmm yea, could. There are 4 $300M+ DOM films (IMO) through June and this is how I have them playing out... 1. Jurassic World Dominion ($440M) 2. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness ($429M) 3. Lightyear ($381M) 4. The Batman ($370M) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 (edited) 6 minutes ago, RiddlerXXR said: Hmm yea, could. There are 4 $300M+ DOM films (IMO) through June and this is how I have them playing out... 1. Jurassic World Dominion ($440M) 2. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness ($429M) 3. Lightyear ($381M) 4. The Batman ($370M) The order sounds about right, but the grosses are too big imo. The movies will have competition next year. Them won't play alone for weeks. Edited January 2, 2022 by Maggie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXRDJisDoctorDoom Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 11 minutes ago, Maggie said: The order sounds about right, but the grosses are too big imo. The movies will have competition next year. Them won't play alone for weeks. So? 2022 will be 98% normal after Omicron burns itself out. Hell, it hasn't stopped NWH from (eventually) going over $700M. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 I'm mostly uncertain about The Batman. It does look good, but it could play like Batman Begins and needs to prove itself again at the startt of a new franchise. I'm rooting for it, but 300M would be pretty good for it 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonahVex Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Batman begins came after the last installment was the failed clooney version, this one gets to follow after arguably the greatest cb movie trilogy ever, heck even those mediocre tasm movies made like 600mil a piece iirc, if the batman is good its gonna do super numbers Spoiler When it comes to dr strange, the reports of the poorly recieved test screenings and reshoots without elizabeth olsen make me think it will have mediocre legs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Gato Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1. Avatar 2 (1.6B) 2. Black Panther 2 (1.2B) 3. Aquaman 2 (1.1B) 4. Dr Strange: Multiverse of Madness (1.1B) 5. Jurassic World: Dominion (1B) 6. The Batman (1B) 7. Thor 4 (850M) 8. Minions: Rise of Gru (850M) 9. The Flash (800M) 10. Black Adam or Mission Impossible (760M) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXRDJisDoctorDoom Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, Maggie said: ‘There doesn’t appear to be any actual predictions here and half the big films are missing lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...