2022 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

[Juby]

On 2/21/2022 at 9:31 AM, Shanks said:

Oh, Corrected.

Still wrong

 

Edited February 22, 2022 by Juby

[poweranimals]

Anyways, they're kinda bad at predicting. They got close with Shang-Chi but everything else was way off,

Edited February 21, 2022 by poweranimals

[wintersoldier2021]

So they think strange DOMESTIC TOTAL will be less than 230million are they high?

[Lothar]

8 hours ago, Juby said:

Bruce Nash's (the-numebrs.com) predictions for 2022:

 

 

https://www.the-numbers.com/beta/news/251050830-2022-market-prediction-our-first-analysis-of-2022-points-to-6-8-billion-year-at-the-box-office

https://www.the-numbers.com/beta/news/251260830-2022-market-prediction-studio-shifts-pull-expected-box-office-down-200-million-from-last-month

 

🤔

A2 opening day or weekend? I don't get it. someone on the desk needs to reduce drinking.

[BruiseCruise]

How the hell do you predict BP2 will only do 230m total domestically when the first one exceeded that amount in 4 days

[Shanks]

12 hours ago, Juby said:

Still wrong:

 

Hello, Mr. Juby,

 

I took data from same Mojo/Number site, so you don't need to remind me what I can see. But For Context, we are talking about 2021 BOX OFFICE - as per site named  "THE NUMBERS" whose address is "https://www.the-numbers.com/" This is site where we can see Box office data, if you don't know. 

 

 I am sorry that you feel I am wrong but maybe you have never seen how yearly data is given but It doesn't abruptly ends on 31st but it's either whole weekend or Whole Weekdays depending on what 31st is falling on.

 

What numbers you are quoting is what NWH earned TILL 31st, 2021 but Even though our YEAR ends on 31st which was Fri, OUR BOX Office year doesn't sadly. It ends on 2nd Jan (Sun). This Site called "The Numbers" considers Spiderman to have earned 613M in year 2021. 

 

 

 

Peace, 

From same guy who copied all data from same site called "The numbers" and had eyes to see 31st was $573m but still wrote $613m.

Edited February 21, 2022 by Shanks

[Juby]

[Tarintino]

I think Thor will be Marvels biggest movie this year. He had the biggest boost in popularity during the Infinity Saga and Ragnarok was one of the most well recieved sequels of the MCU. It seems likely that we will have Star Lord and friends in it too so I think people are sleeping on this one. 

[Liiviig 1998]

2 hours ago, Tarintino said:

I think Thor will be Marvels biggest movie this year. He had the biggest boost in popularity during the Infinity Saga and Ragnarok was one of the most well recieved sequels of the MCU. It seems likely that we will have Star Lord and friends in it too so I think people are sleeping on this one. 

Think people are over predicting this way too much. It's gonna increase to around CM to aquaman  numbers.

 

155-165m OW

425 -450m Dom

700m OS.

Do people really think this is toping BP2??

Multiverse of madness is a wild card. 

 

thor 4 could be the lowest or the second.

gotg and Thor  franchises were never that big OS and I know popularity has increased  . Still see all  the MCU movies making 700-750m. Maybe DS2 can go 800m+.

 

BP has the advantage on the domestic side. 

 

BP - 1.4B 

DS - 1.3 - 1.35B

TH4 - 1.15B

 

 

[XXR vs XXR]

I am very curious about OS numbers and I do worry things are being over-predicted a bit. I think NWH has skewed peoples mindset. NWH is not the new norm. 
 

FWIW, Spider-Man FFH “only” did $542M OS-C in 2019. Captain Marvel did $548M. Ragnarok did $427M in 2017.

 

I have to continue to assume that Marvel won’t get released in China this year because I have nothing else to go on. As of right now, I’m thinking something in the range of FFH/CM OS-C +30-50% for Love & Thunder.

Edited February 22, 2022 by PenguinXXR

[interiorgatordecorator]

1 hour ago, PenguinXXR said:

I am very curious about OS numbers and I do worry things are being over-predicted a bit. I think NWH has skewed peoples mindset. NWH is not the new norm. 
 

FWIW, Spider-Man FFH “only” did $542M OS-C in 2019. Captain Marvel did $548M. Ragnarok did $427M in 2017.

 

I have to continue to assume that Marvel won’t get released in China this year because I have nothing else to go on. As of right now, I’m thinking something in the range of FFH/CM OS-C +30-50% for Love & Thunder.

 

still don't see L&T's path to a billion

Ragnarok only did a bit over 300 domestic, if its getting to a billion it needs to grow 35% both domestic and os-c

to get to a billion

And it has to do with against Minions 2, lightyear, JWD, Bullet Train, Nope and Black Adam

I see it stopping at the mid 900s at most

 

[XXR vs XXR]

34 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

still don't see L&T's path to a billion

Ragnarok only did a bit over 300 domestic, if its getting to a billion it needs to grow 35% both domestic and os-c

to get to a billion

And it has to do with against Minions 2, lightyear, JWD, Bullet Train, Nope and Black Adam

I see it stopping at the mid 900s at most

 

A 35% increase isn’t much of an ask, to be honest. Thor’s profile increased quite a bit in Infinity War and Endgame which are both post Ragnarok. Not to mention it’s easy to carry big numbers in the summer than any other time, sans Christmas holidays. 
 

 

[BruiseCruise]

Where do you guys see Black Adam coming in at?

August doesn't look too bad in terms of competition and The Rock has clear starpower, i'm guessing 500m ww 

[Maggie]

2 hours ago, BruiseCruise said:

Where do you guys see Black Adam coming in at?

August doesn't look too bad in terms of competition and The Rock has clear starpower, i'm guessing 500m ww 

Bigger than The Batman!!!  😁

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Black Adam is a huge question mark.

 

Rock's recent trajectory (domestic)

July 2021: Jungle Cruise- 116m (Disney+)

Dec 2019: Jumanji: Next Level- 316m

Aug 2019: Hobbs and Shaw- 173m

July 2018: Skyscraper- 68m

April 2018: 101m

Dec 2017: Jumanji: 404m

May 2017: Baywatch- 58m

June 2016: Central Intelligence- 127m

May 2015: San Andreas- 155m

July 2014: Hercules- 72m

 

Compare this to Shazam (the most comparable DC project, obviously) which did 140m. You can argue Jungle Cruise would have hit 140m but Rock hasn't hit that outside of Fast and Furious/Jumanji since San Andreas. 

 

140-150m is higher than Birds of Prey (84m), The Suicide Squad (55m, HBO Max). I don't think it should be expected to perform alongside the likes of Batman, Superman, or even Wonder Woman and Aquaman. Suicide Squad (2016) had an incredible marketing campaign, so much more going for it with Will Smith, a new Joker, the first Harley Quinn appearance, etc. 

 

I don't think you can expect a DC film to perform like a MCU solo film (Shang-Chi doing 220m) but Eternals did 164m and Ant-Man did 180m (sequel post Endgame did 216m). So 150m is a fair prediction IMO.

 

August is completely dire, so it can take advantage with strong legs and approach the 160m range.

 

 

 

[Juby]

17 hours ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

BP has the advantage on the domestic side. 

 

BP - 1.4B 

DS - 1.3 - 1.35B

TH4 - 1.15B

 

There's no chance BP2 will increase over the first one. Domestically it will drop as every sequel to a smashing superhero hit (Superman II, Batman Returns, Spider-Man 2, Age of Ultron, Deadpool 2) as well as overseas. The first Black Panther OS-C was "only" $542m. It was #1 movie of the year only in U.S. and some African markets. Everywhere else people wanted to see it mostly because it was the last MCU movie before Infinity War and it wasn't availble on streaming/DVD/Blu-ray/UHD befere Avengers realease. I'm still not sure if BP2 will join the billion-dollar-club ww.

[Liiviig 1998]

6 hours ago, Juby said:

 

There's no chance BP2 will increase over the first one. Domestically it will drop as every sequel to a smashing superhero hit (Superman II, Batman Returns, Spider-Man 2, Age of Ultron, Deadpool 2) as well as overseas. The first Black Panther OS-C was "only" $542m. It was #1 movie of the year only in U.S. and some African markets. Everywhere else people wanted to see it mostly because it was the last MCU movie before Infinity War and it wasn't availble on streaming/DVD/Blu-ray/UHD befere Avengers realease. I'm still not sure if BP2 will join the billion-dollar-club ww.

Thor Ragnarok had around OS - C around425m .  BP doesn't need to increase Dom . In my prediction had it at 650m Dom .

Ragnarok Will be lucky to make 500 Dom and I still think BP will edge it out OS too.

Previous predictions had China.

 

BP - 1.2- 1.27B  WW -C(625-650m Dom, 600-625m OS-C)

 

DS - 1B - 1.2B  WW-C(500-600m Dom, 500-600m OS-C) I personally think

DS 2could be the biggest surprise.

 

Thor - 950m+ - 1B WW-C(425-450m Dom, 550m OS-C)

 

Edited February 23, 2022 by Liiviig 1998

[Juby]

Your predictions are still way too optimistic for me. BP2 won't increase overseas. OS-C over $540m for BP:WF will be a huge surprise, especially against so strong competition: The Flash, Aquaman and the Lost City and "Avatar 2". Domestic will also drop significantly. First BP was the first major blockbuster of 2018 and the last MCU-film before highly-anticipated Infinity War, BP2 will be 8th(!) superhero film of 2022 and one of the 3 big films with underwater action (if it is really Namor debut ?). Don't be shocked if BP2 finish under $450m domestic.

 

1 hour ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

Ragnarok Will be lucky to make 500 Dom

 

Thor: Ragnarok did $315m domestic. :P The sequel of the best recieved Thor film + one of the direct sequels to Endgame + Thor and Guardians team-up = Love & Thunder definitely have potential for +$400m domestic, but even this isn't locked.

[El Squibbonator]

Has there been any speculation in this thread regarding Bob's Burgers: The Movie? Its marketing has been surprisingly low-key for a film adaptation of a popular TV show, so I'm not sure what to make of it. I'm picturing an opening weekend of $10-15 million, with a domestic gross of somewhere in the $50 million territory if Jurassic World: Dominion doesn't do too much damage to it. 

[dudalb]

With the ecnomic news from Russia today, Russian BOx Office is going to be down,down,down.