F9 WEEKEND THREAD | 70M Opening Weekend! Now 405M Worldwide | The Moovies are back! | One Month of Gold only $7.50

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[Eric Prime]

3 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

7
17-18
18-20

13-15 // 55-60
 

Maybe I'm missing something here, and I'm aware H&S is a spin-off, but this seems a bit frontloaded, no? Sub-60 means a less than 8.45x, and I don't think this is a series that is that fan-driven.

 

If this does turn out true, then I have to admit that only doing around Quiet Place 2 numbers, or possibly less, is a bit disappointing and doesn't dissuade my fears for the health of the box office.

[Eric Prime]

 

[Cooper Legion]

39 minutes ago, Eric is Full of Pride said:

Maybe I'm missing something here, and I'm aware H&S is a spin-off, but this seems a bit frontloaded, no? Sub-60 means a less than 8.45x, and I don't think this is a series that is that fan-driven.

 

If this does turn out true, then I have to admit that only doing around Quiet Place 2 numbers, or possibly less, is a bit disappointing and doesn't dissuade my fears for the health of the box office.

Tbf even 57M would be a new pandemic OW record by 20%.    
 

Reception seems bad and True Fri seems below 20 (though could always get extra strong walkups) so 55-60 seems right to me.

[Eric Prime]

7 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Tbf even 57M would be a new pandemic OW record by 20%.    
 

Reception seems bad and True Fri seems below 20 (though could always get extra strong walkups) so 55-60 seems right to me.

I feel dense right now. I thought 57M was Quiet Place's 3-Day, but it was actually the 4-Day. So I guess it's not so bad, but I still feel like 60M would have made me a lot happier and feel a lot more confident in Widow and other titles down the pipeline.

[john2000]

3 minutes ago, Eric is Full of Pride said:

I feel dense right now. I thought 57M was Quiet Place's 3-Day, but it was actually the 4-Day. So I guess it's not so bad, but I still feel like 60M would have made me a lot happier and feel a lot more confident in Widow and other titles down the pipeline.

one doesnt affect the other, if fast 9 makes below 60 mill, that doesnt mean a thing in terms for black widow, just as  a quiet place 2 47 three day ow, didnt mean a thing for In the Heights

[Cooper Legion]

3 minutes ago, john2000 said:

one doesnt affect the other, if fast 9 makes below 60 mill, that doesnt mean a thing in terms for black widow, just as  a quiet place 2 47 three day ow, didnt mean a thing for In the Heights

Eh, I mean, I certainly agree that a lot of what explains a particular movie’s performance right now is product driven factors that don’t generalize to the next release.   
 

But it’s probably also true that some of what’s behind a certain debut (especially new records) is a reflection of broader market conditions/recovery, and so it should be weakly correlated with what you expect for future movies (especially if they are also likely to be the new record). I would certainly feel better about my club if this had broken out to like 77 than if it comes in at 54 say.

[Eric Prime]

5 minutes ago, john2000 said:

one doesnt affect the other, if fast 9 makes below 60 mill, that doesnt mean a thing in terms for black widow, just as  a quiet place 2 47 three day ow, didnt mean a thing for In the Heights

Well aware of that. However, I want to see stronger numbers because that says to me there is a strong demand and that stronger numbers are around the corner for films that have more hype and more going for them.

 

I've said this before, but I am afraid that Memorial Day could have just been a fluke and that the summer (and maybe even beyond) will see muted openings. And while F9 will open better than Quiet Place 2, I feel that a number in the mid-60s, low-60s at the very least, would signal to me an appetite for moviegoing and suggest more confidence that Black Widow or Suicide Squad or Space Jam or whatever will see really strong results. Maybe the demand for this movie wasn't there and the market will be strong well into the end of the year. But at this point, I think seeing how other openers improve on themselves and their individual strengths say a lot more to me at this point in time.

 

Of course, I'm saying this as one of the more pessimistic members here in regards to the box office. I'm still convinced theaters are going to go through a lot of hassles and that numbers could be depressed from now on, and it'll take a lot to convince me otherwise.

[john2000]

7 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Eh, I mean, I certainly agree that a lot of what explains a particular movie’s performance right now is product driven factors that don’t generalize to the next release.   
 

But it’s probably also true that some of what’s behind a certain debut (especially new records) is a reflection of broader market conditions/recovery, and so it should be weakly correlated with what you expect for future movies (especially if they are also likely to be the new record). I would certainly feel better about my club if this had broken out to like 77 than if it comes in at 54 say.

agreed, lets see how it pans out, i would  certainly love something in the 65-70 range though

[Cooper Legion]

2 minutes ago, john2000 said:

agreed, lets see how it pans out, i would  certainly love something in the 65-70 range though

https://deadline.com/2021/06/f9-speeds-to-7-1m-thursday-previews-best-to-date-during-pandemic-1234781577/

 

Quote

First great sign that the box office is coming back. Universal’sF9 is seeing $29.5M today, including last night’s Thursday previews, for a 3-day at $66.5M at 4,179 theatres.

 

Edited June 25, 2021 by Lokis Legion

[CJohn]

7.1M is a bit disappointing tbh. Thinking high 50s for the total OW now.

[john2000]

3 minutes ago, Eric is Full of Pride said:

Well aware of that. However, I want to see stronger numbers because that says to me there is a strong demand and that stronger numbers are around the corner for films that have more hype and more going for them.

 

I've said this before, but I am afraid that Memorial Day could have just been a fluke and that the summer (and maybe even beyond) will see muted openings. And while F9 will open better than Quiet Place 2, I feel that a number in the mid-60s, low-60s at the very least, would signal to me an appetite for moviegoing and suggest more confidence that Black Widow or Suicide Squad or Space Jam or whatever will see really strong results. Maybe the demand for this movie wasn't there and the market will be strong well into the end of the year. But at this point, I think seeing how other openers improve on themselves and their individual strengths say a lot more to me at this point in time.

 

Of course, I'm saying this as one of the more pessimistic members here in regards to the box office. I'm still convinced theaters are going to go through a lot of hassles and that numbers could be depressed from now on, and it'll take a lot to convince me otherwise.

memorial day fluke why ? up to this point there wasnt any movie worth seeing, for me seeing an upward trend in ow is enough but anyways we still have ways to go

[Cooper Legion]

Pretty early in the day for a bullish call from Deadline, doubt it fully pans out but does bode in the right direction at least.

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

https://deadline.com/2021/06/f9-speeds-to-7-1m-thursday-previews-best-to-date-during-pandemic-1234781577/

 

 

that would be awesome , but idk if that estimate is reliable yet, but hopefully it is

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

https://deadline.com/2021/06/f9-speeds-to-7-1m-thursday-previews-best-to-date-during-pandemic-1234781577/

 

 

Somehow they get only 66.5 from a 22 million True Friday...Deadline math strikes again. This seems really positive but who knows lol. 

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

Somehow they get only 66.5 from a 22 million True Friday...Deadline math strikes again. This seems really positive but who knows lol. 

22 mill true friday would mean 70+ ow right ?

 

 

i would also want to point out ( i hope that i am right) , that a quit place 2 had bigger true friday than expected, so hopefully still day is not over yet

Edited June 25, 2021 by john2000

[Cooper Legion]

After carefully considering this new data, I am INCREASING my personal est

Spoiler

From 18 to 18.5

 

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Pretty early in the day for a bullish call from Deadline, doubt it fully pans out but does bode in the right direction at least.

 

5 minutes ago, john2000 said:

that would be awesome , but idk if that estimate is reliable yet, but hopefully it is

 

4 minutes ago, Menor said:

Somehow they get only 66.5 from a 22 million True Friday...Deadline math strikes again. This seems really positive but who knows lol. 

 

Here, let me save everyone the trouble and post a pic that'll be made 24 hours from now:

 

Edited June 25, 2021 by Porthos

[john2000]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

 

 

Here, let me save everyone the trouble and quote a post that'll be made 24 hours from now:

 

indeed one way or the other positively or negatively i am past the point of taking seriously deadline

[titanic2187]

22m true friday seem too good to be true from the tracking thread but still great to see Deadline have their first mid-day update.