Weekend Thread (10/22-24) | Dune 41M OW. French Dispatch 1.35M. Timothee can't be stopped!

[Cooper Legion]

14 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

BTW what is your prediction for Eternals. You were on the money on Shang Chi. 

He was not.

[Cooper Legion]

Really excellent Sunday, probably about a 67% drop for next weekend but that is being depressed some by the holiday.

[baumer]

Would someone like to explain to me why it's going to drop like a sequel with a big review number?

[Starphanluke]

19 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

Dune is on track right now for a $10m+ Sunday.  

 

The actuals should go up significantly from the estimates.  

Oh wow. That's great. Sort of expected the actuals to go down.

11 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

I'm curious why you think it will drop that much.  It's not a sequel, it didn't have a massive preview number sp I'm not sure why it would drop that high.  WOM seems to be pretty good on it so I don't see why it would drop more than 55%.  I could be wrong of course but 60% seems high.  70% is Twilight kind of stuff.

Mostly the HBO Max factor. I'd be happy to be wrong. 

[baumer]

1 minute ago, Starphanluke said:

Oh wow. That's great. Sort of expected the actuals to go down.

Mostly the HBO Max factor. I'd be happy to be wrong. 

 

Dammit.  I forgot about that.

 

Thank you.

[Cooper Legion]

3 minutes ago, baumer said:

Would someone like to explain to me why it's going to drop like a sequel with a big review number?

It’s an hbomax movie with a big chunk of gross coming from previews, I don’t know what more you want? Just look at some 2nd weekend/SS ratios for all the movies released this way.

[Cooper Legion]

Though I guess it will help a little being very Canada heavy — they drop better in general and don’t have max in particular. Plus reception and internal weekend behavior look solid. Could pull like a -62 or something, that would be really strong considering.

[Porthos]

Just now, Let There Be Legion said:

Though I guess it will help a little being very Canada heavy — they drop better in general and don’t have max in particular. Plus reception and internal weekend behavior look solid. Could pull like a -62 or something, that would be really strong considering.

 

PLF spillover might be contributing to holds?

 

(if so, brutal 3rd weekend drop could be in the cards)

[baumer]

2 minutes ago, Let There Be Legion said:

It’s an hbomax movie with a big chunk of gross coming from previews, I don’t know what more you want? Just look at some 2nd weekend/SS ratios for all the movies released this way.

 

I mentioned in a post above I forgot it was released on HBOmax.  The preview number was only 5 million, hardly significant.  But yes, the HBOmax release will mess it up for sure.

[EmpireCity]

15 minutes ago, Let There Be Legion said:

He was not.

 

I pretty much was where it counts.  Sorry you got it wrong.  

[baumer]

1 minute ago, EmpireCity said:

 

I pretty much was where it counts.  Sorry you got it wrong.  

 

What was your prediction for it OW?  I haven't been here much in the last 18 months, so I don't know who predicted what.

[EmpireCity]

Just now, baumer said:

 

What was your prediction for it OW?  I haven't been here much in the last 18 months, so I don't know who predicted what.

 

I have to go back and look it up. but in the immediate aftermath of The Suicide Squad when most of the board and the industry were predicting a $30m opening weekend and that every movie was going to move to 2022 I was right there predicting it was going to do great and shock the hell out of everyone.  

 

Pretty sure my number weeks out was $65m+

[baumer]

Just now, EmpireCity said:

 

I have to go back and look it up. but in the immediate aftermath of The Suicide Squad when most of the board and the industry were predicting a $30m opening weekend and that every movie was going to move to 2022 I was right there predicting it was going to do great and shock the hell out of everyone.  

 

Pretty sure my number weeks out was $65m+

 

I think on Twitter I said it would open to something like 40  lol.  My box office acumen is so rusty right now.

[baumer]

@EmpireCity That's a nice prediction you made.  Probably closer than most.

[John Marston]

fun fact. For the 1984 Dune movie some theaters came audiences handouts that helped explain some of the things in the movie

 

 

[Cooper Legion]

23 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

I mentioned in a post above I forgot it was released on HBOmax.  The preview number was only 5 million, hardly significant.  But yes, the HBOmax release will mess it up for sure.

Ahh, that would certainly explains things. 5 is a significant % of 41 when most max releases have 0% from Th, still drags the expected drop down a little relative to the reference class.

[Cooper Legion]

26 minutes ago, Porthos said:

PLF spillover might be contributing to holds?

I think this is definitely helping Sat and Sun, expect it to help weekdays too a little, unclear if it can last til next fri.   
 

Probably will get a big 3rd weekend drop from losing PLFs, but the 3rd weekend isn’t that important anyway.

[Cooper Legion]

24 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

I pretty much was where it counts.  Sorry you got it wrong.  

Dude. Do you really want me to quote the exchange where you finally gave a number, I was like “this isn’t that bullish, I think it will do way better,” and then it did in fact do way better?

Edited October 25, 2021 by Let There Be Legion

[ViktorLosAngeles]

So, if Sunday is 10 million+, then I guess we're looking at 41.2 million $ at least. I don't see second weekend dropping more than 55-60 % honestly. There is nothing to compete with, and apart from "Antlers", "Last Night in Soho", and expansion of "The French Dispatch", not may releases will "steal" it's audience.

 

So - 16-18.5 million $ should be the second weekend's numbers. 67.8 to 71 million $ 10 days total.

 

I predict harder third weekend drop when all the IMAX screens go to "Eternals", which, I have no doubt, will happen.

Edited October 25, 2021 by ViktorLosAngeles

[ThomasNicole]

Dune will have +8x multiplier, honestly, it's pretty good for a movie many think would be completely frontloaded.

 

Sat bump and Sun drop are also pretty good. Sadly HBO Max won't allowed this to have a great multiplier, but based on the OW and the great audience reception, i think this will hold well on second weekend, especially without competition.

 

It needs around only 2.4x to reach 100M, i'm betting it will get there.