Eternals Weekend Thread: 71M OW DOM, 90M OS | Dune 7.6M (-50%), NTTD 6.2M, Venom 4.5M, Spencer 2.1M

[john2000]

17 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Are you expecting an Eternals 2? 
 

The audience response, critic response and box office aren’t good. So it is a miss for the MCU on all three counts.
 

But that doesn’t mean Marvel are in trouble. They’ll take the hit and move on. 

yes i do responses are closer to mixed than trash and box office will end up still decent so..... thor 2 was also a miss, so was ironman 2.

Edited November 7, 2021 by john2000

[Coldbird]

17 minutes ago, Eternal Legion said:

I’m expecting an Eternals 2. Those things aren’t a miss in a way that necessarily dooms a sequel.

We will see where it ends and how marvel operates but on its own this are numbers which doom a sequel.

 

Like Edge of tomorrow had an budget of 180m, made 370m and has a big fanbase. No sequel in 7 years. Similiar with Alita, Detective Pikachu and Warcraft with similiar numbers and warcraft/pokemon with an potential extremely big fanbase, you just need to convince going to theaters. They all had 150-180m budget and ended around 400m -/+10%. Bumblebee 2 had an smaller budget and made 470m worldwide, its also not getting a sequel. Nearly all of the audience and critics ratings are better than eternals too.

 

Of course china numbers are making a 1:1 boxoffice comparison hard. But Eternals is a 200m movie, it needs more than 400m to get even its budget back and marvel does not need that movie or franchise.

 

Edited November 7, 2021 by Coldbird

[crazydom]

I expect Eternals 2, but with some other MCU big heavyweights thrown in. Someone like the Guardians or Thor.

[john2000]

8 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

It’ll be interesting to see if they announce a sequel. 

they wont announce anything anytime soon, same case like a shang chi 2, only when most of the content that they have promised so far comes out , only then we will hear new announcements

[john2000]

1 minute ago, Coldbird said:

We will see where it ends and how marvel operates but on its own this are numbers which doom a sequel.

 

Like Edge of tomorrow had an budget of 180m, made 370m and has a big fanbase. No sequel in 7 years. Similiar with Alita, Detective Pikachu and Warcraft with similiar numbers and warcraft/pokemon with an potential extremely big fanbase, you just need to convince going to theaters. They all had 150-180m budget and ended around 400m -/+10%. Nearly all of the audience metrics are better than eternals too. Bumblebee 2 had an smaller budget and made 470m worldwide, its also net getting a sequel.

 

Of course china numbers are making a 1:1 boxoffice comparison hard. But Eternals is a 200m movie, it needs more than 400m to get even its budget back and marvel does not need that movie or franchise.

 

eternals will make more than 400 mill ww and along with the ancillaries it will break even , as for the WOM i think that you overestimate peoples memories by the time a sequel comes along most people wont even remember the first one, something that almost applies to all sequel that come 5 years or so after the first movie.

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, crazydom said:

I expect Eternals 2, but with some other MCU big heavyweights thrown in. Someone like the Guardians or Thor.

there is no need to , the problem is the reception not the popularity eternals os ow is very very good and even though domestically underperformed relatively to expectations it will still hit 70 mill ow even with mixed reception.

[Madhuvan]

I am all for doom and gloom myself but let's not act like Eternals is very popular franchise inside Marvel. 

 

Sequel will happen but I don't know when. Also, it's not tanking as some users are trying to convey. Overseas box office is good enough. Anything over 450m+ will be good enough without China. 

 

[von Kenni]

Thinking Eternals' numbers (I hope those who track it more closely can help on this).

 

If OW $70m, and let's say legs between Venom 2 & SC 2.55*70 ~ 180 DOM .. let's add a bit more, think it's skewed more to the older slow dripping demo, and it's Captain America 2.72*70 ~ 190 DOM.

 

Captain America did $370.6m WW /w $140m budget ~2.6x

 

For Eternals 2 and continuation it would probably be good if it makes 2.5x the budget ($500m). Eternals will be evaluated with pre-pandemic adjusted numbers (and of course there are internal expectations and parameters that we don't know for sure) for that.

 

Pre-pandemic adjustment for DOM about +15% (might be lower for other MCU movies do to younger demos)

190 ->  220 DOM

To get the needed $280m pre-pandemic adj. OS it would need around $230m actual OS now (I used +22.5% pandemic adj. here). Shouldn't it be able to make that?

 

I.e. 190 DOM + 230 OS = 420 WW ~ 500 WW pre-pandemic adj. ~ Captain America level success with numbers -> Eternals 2

 

Though, Disney & Marvel probably have some other and higher metrics/expectations that they want to meet. I doubt divisive reception effects badly because the last thing they should do is to divide the fandom like with Star Wars or Star Trek has happened.

[Madhuvan]

Just now, von Kenni said:

Thinking Eternals' numbers (I hope those who track it more closely can help on this).

 

If OW $70m, and let's say legs between Venom 2 & SC 2.55*70 ~ 180 DOM .. let's add a bit more, think it's skewed more to the older slow dripping demo, and it's Captain America 2.72*70 ~ 190 DOM.

 

Captain America did $370.6m WW /w $140m budget ~2.6x

 

For Eternals 2 and continuation it would probably be good if it makes 2.5x the budget ($500m). Eternals will be evaluated with pre-pandemic adjusted numbers (and of course there are internal expectations and parameters that we don't know for sure) for that.

 

Pre-pandemic adjustment for DOM about +15% (might be lower for other MCU movies do to younger demos)

190 ->  220 DOM

To get the needed $280m pre-pandemic adj. OS it would need around $230m actual OS now (I used +22.5% pandemic adj. here). Shouldn't it be able to make that?

 

I.e. 190 DOM + 230 OS = 420 WW ~ 500 WW pre-pandemic adj. ~ Captain America level success with numbers -> Eternals 2

 

Though, Disney & Marvel probably have some other and higher metrics/expectations that they want to meet. I doubt divisive reception effects badly because the last thing they should do is to divide the fandom like with Star Wars or Star Trek has happened.

Eternals is not releasing in China. 

[Issac Newton]

Marvel is banned in Mainland China for violating national censorship laws &failing to inform Chinese Government about CoVid-19, even when Doctor Strange had seen 14,000,605 future outcome while trying to save the world. Why did he failed to inform about CoVid-19? 

[von Kenni]

3 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

Eternals is not releasing in China. 

Do you mean that Eternals is hard to reach that OS without China?

 

Btw, CA wasn't either released in China. It's good to remember that was it closer to 60% margin that Disney has with DOM box office and OS on average 44%?, and China around 24%! so for each $100m dom you need to make $250m in China to get same profits.

 

Then there are crazy comparison like that Pacific Rim's China cume of $130m (if remembering right...inf.adj.) and Dune's $40m which have almost the same importance. When PR was released its production company Legendary wasn't owned by Wanda Group yet which owns the distribution in China hence it brought in about $130m*24% ~ $31.2m but now Wanda owns Legendary, hence about 80% stays in the same business group and $40m*80% ~$32m of Dune's gross in China. Not completely the same thing but not far off to say that Dune's $40m was as successful for the production company as PR's $130m!

[SpiderByte]

For the record: one of the most important characters in Endgame, and the one most vital to the story, was Ant-Man. Whereas Captain Marvel, a massive hit, was barely above a cameo. So box office is not a 1 to 1 measure of importance to future films and teamups.

 

Especially since in the comics Dane and Sersi are both card carrying members of the Avengers.

 

Edited November 7, 2021 by SpiderByte

[Coldbird]

27 minutes ago, john2000 said:

eternals will make more than 400 mill ww and along with the ancillaries it will break even , as for the WOM i think that you overestimate peoples memories by the time a sequel comes along most people wont even remember the first one, something that almost applies to all sequel that come 5 years or so after the first movie.

Many movies which didnt get a sequel could have break even at the end, but thats not the goal of studios and i honestly doubt this will be the case for eternals. They want to make money and marvel has 22+movies which did that better than break even with ancillaries and they have a whole lot of franchises/franchises with potential making more.

 

[Madhuvan]

Just now, SpiderByte said:

For the record: one of the most important characters in Endgame, and the one most vital to the story, was Ant-Man. Whereas Captain Marvel, a massive hit, was barely above a cameo. So box office is not a 1 to 1 measure of importance to future films and teamups.

 

Especially since in the comics Dane and Sersi are both card carrying members of the Avengers.

There is weird agenda against Eternals and this sudden Dune vs Eternals agenda too. 

That's why I haven't commented much on box office or movie reception. It's good to wait in such cases. 

 

We will all know the answers in 2-3 yrs 

[Legion Again]

6 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

For the record: one of the most important characters in Endgame, and the one most vital to the story, was Ant-Man. Whereas Captain Marvel, a massive hit, was barely above a cameo. So box office is not a 1 to 1 measure of importance to future films and teamups.

 

Especially since in the comics Dane and Sersi are both card carrying members of the Avengers.

 

Bingo.   
 

These movies are just threads in a grander tapestry. Eternals 2 will be green lit based on how it ties into the cosmic arc of phase 5 or whatever, not how eternal 1 did.   
 

I expect this to be marvel’s 2nd worst performing movie financially after Hulk — but if not for the rights issues I bet we would be on Hulk 4 or so by now despite Hulk 1 being a bomb. There’s a larger project here. The solo movies support the big guns and that justifies their existence beyond the individual financial performances.   
 

Eternals 2 was always probably going to be a pretty different movie to Eternals 1, just like cap 2, DS2, cm2, what have you. There were always likely to be other projects involving and developing the characters. So the performance of the first just isn’t as important as it usually would be.

[Gavin Feng]

weekend thread would never recover unless No Way Home's opening is lower than Eternals' fourth weekend.

[Issac Newton]

11 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

weekend thread would never recover unless No Way Home's opening is lower than Eternals' fourth weekend.

There is always a possibility. After all, audience are Gods behind Film's Success

Edited November 7, 2021 by Issac Newton

[SpiderByte]

13 minutes ago, Eternal Legion said:

 

Eternals 2 was always probably going to be a pretty different movie to Eternals 1, just like cap 2, DS2, cm2, what have you. There were always likely to be other projects involving and developing the characters. So the performance of the first just isn’t as important as it usually would be.

I don't even necessarily mean sequels. Black Widows post credits scene was a tee up for the Hawkeye series. The long term planning is very different now.

[XXR vs XXR]

 

Anyone who thinks Eternals 2 isn't happening, doesn't know how the MCU works at all. 

Ant-Man is about to have his 3rd film, and sans China (which Eternals doesn't have) his first 2 films have made an average of $457M worldwide. That's dealing with no pandemic and no censorship. 

 

By 2026 we will have an Eternals 2. 

 

[Issac Newton]

6 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

By 2026 we will have an Eternals 2.

Disney Insider speaking about Phase V (returning from Time Travel, hopefully, TVA didn't catch him). What about Avengers 5?

Edited November 7, 2021 by Issac Newton