Eternals Weekend Thread: 71M OW DOM, 90M OS | Dune 7.6M (-50%), NTTD 6.2M, Venom 4.5M, Spencer 2.1M

[Elessar]

7 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

ah. I read 2.5M friday while calculating bump. +50%.

 

Still better than last week. Weekend could be around $7.8m with those numbers. All around the last 7 days went better than i feared. Now feel pretty good about Dune hitting $100m actually.

[Legion Again]

8 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

24 —Eternals, 70.7

3.35 — Dune, 7.6

2.5 — Bond, 5.9

2.05 — V2, 4.5

1.65 — Ron, 3.45

 

Put movie I assume for each and my wknd est.   

 

Strong Sat and strong weekend for holdovers

[nguyenkhoi282]

So Dune is going sub 50 drop in the face of Eternals. Interesting.

[Legion Again]

3 minutes ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

I could see Leto playing the Padishah Emperor.

If Leto doesn’t play Leto, what is even the point?

 

Spoiler

I mean, you hire someone else for the young scenes anyway and then it’s mostly a CGI role  

 

[TomCruiseTop]

Just now, Eternal Legion said:

If Leto doesn’t play Leto, what is even the point?

 

  Hide contents

I mean, you hire someone else for the young scenes anyway and then it’s mostly a CGI role  

 

Surely they won't get around to Leto II? That would be Dune IV at that point?

[Legion Again]

Just now, JamesCameronScholar said:

Surely they won't get around to Leto II? That would be Dune IV at that point?

Realistic chance of getting made is inversely related to meming potential 

[Elessar]

28 minutes ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

So Dune is going sub 50 drop in the face of Eternals. Interesting.

 

Right around -50%. Might be slightly above or below.

 

I went with a -35% SUN drop since it did that on opening weekend* but in hindsight SUN drops tend to be a little deflated on opening weekends so it might drop closer to 40% this SUN. We'll see...

 

EDIT:

* estimates had it at -35% but it actually dropped only 22% on its 1st SUN

Edited November 7, 2021 by Elessar

[Legion Again]

15 minutes ago, Elessar said:

 

Right around -50%. Might be slightly above or below.

 

I went with a -35% SUN drop since it did that on opening weekend but in hindsight SUN drops tend to be a little deflated on opening weekends so it might drop closer to 40% this SUN. We'll see...

OW was -22%. I went 40% here because in addition to being a later in the run weekend, it’s no longer being fueled by PLFs, which do more constant business across the week. So getting them out of the basket juiced the Sat bump but should also hurt the sun a bit (relative to Sat, not really relative to Fri).

[Elessar]

1 minute ago, Eternal Legion said:

OW was -22%. 

 

Right, i was looking at the estimates, not actualls. My bad.

[von Kenni]

Great holds for Dune and that sub 50% can happen if weekend total is over $7.7m. With Charlie's Sat number looks like we start counting from $7.6m which would be a -40% Sun drop. At the higher end it could be -31% which would be $7.9m. Dune has been quite consistent with NTTD so based on that the drop would be around 34% ~ $7.8m & 49% 2nd weekend drop.

 

Anyways, we're ending up around 50% drop which is excellent. Strange how last weekend was bigger than expected and now that they took PLF/IMAXs away and Eternals came, it's so much lower.

 

Is it that the WOM is just warming up and it's bringing a stable stream of older demos to watch Dune which could explain the strong weekday legs too?

 

Of course Eternals lower than expected opening helps Dune but I don't think that it explains all of it if looking Thu & Fri.

 

E.g. I didn't want to go in the opening weekend and intentionally went the following weekdays with friends. It wasn't so paramount to see it right away and I see the same with my older demo friends. Some of them are those that haven't read the books but have heard good things about Dune and are going to see it after weeks being out there.

[von Kenni]

1 hour ago, Elessar said:

 

Still better than last week. Weekend could be around $7.8m with those numbers. All around the last 7 days went better than i feared. Now feel pretty good about Dune hitting $100m actually.

Unless we're suddenly starting to see much, much weaker weekday legs for Dune next week, $100m should be closer to 90% certainty at this point. Based on this weekend without PLF/IMAXs I doubt the legs are falling off, so it looks like Dune is getting closer to $110m than $100m when it ends its run.

 

That 1.46 vs 1.39 NTTD's weekend-to-cume multiplier is very strong and Dune made 2.5x GvK's weekday cume this week. That multiplier will get down a bit but still being strong.

 

Dune will be around $87m before next weekend and hits $100m on its 6th weekend (a slight chance doing it before).

 

Edited November 7, 2021 by von Kenni
Ron Swanson + 6th weekend

[baumer]

@charlie Jatinder what's Halloween looking like?

[von Kenni]

29 minutes ago, Eternal Legion said:

OW was -22%. I went 40% here because in addition to being a later in the run weekend, it’s no longer being fueled by PLFs, which do more constant business across the week. So getting them out of the basket juiced the Sat bump but should also hurt the sun a bit (relative to Sat, not really relative to Fri).

+ @Elessar I think you mixed OW Sat drop (from Fri+previews) 22% and Sun drop 29%.

[charlie Jatinder]

11 minutes ago, baumer said:

@charlie Jatinder what's Halloween looking like?

1M.

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, john2000 said:

eternals dom performance is certainly dissapointing, no doubt about that but anyone who says that mcu is in trouble or that marvel will abandon that franchise  is completly wrong.The dom numbers arent good at all on the other hand the os numbers are a whole differen situation as its doing  very good there,overall the final total will probably be nowhere near some of us thought at least domestically speaking, however it should still have a decent final total and make enough both in box office and ancillaries to break even.That would be decent enough for marvel imo.

Are you expecting an Eternals 2? 
 

The audience response, critic response and box office aren’t good. So it is a miss for the MCU on all three counts.
 

But that doesn’t mean Marvel are in trouble. They’ll take the hit and move on. 

Edited November 7, 2021 by Krissykins

[Starphanluke]

Pretty impressive if Dune drops less than 50%, imo. I was expecting it to absolutely tank with the loss of PLFs. 

 

As far as Eternals, I do think this is a pretty bad performance, all things considered. I surely don't expect an Eternals 2 anytime soon, but I don't expect them to drop these threads completely, either. There are plenty of other projects these characters (likely in smaller groups) can pop up in. 

[Coldbird]

Venom 22% drop love to see it.

 

They are not gonna abandon eternals as characters or lore impact, but i wouldnt expect a eternals 2. More likely they will sprinkle them around their other movies/series and maybe the most popular ones get their own arcs as sideplots.

 

 

[ACSlater]

21 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

1M.

 

@charlie Jatinder Any idea on Sooryavanshi? I am about to take my mum and go see it today for the post-Diwali weekend. Gotta build my Indian street cred for the upcoming year. 

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, Krissykins said:

Are you expecting an Eternals 2? 
 

The audience response, critic response and box office aren’t good. So it is a miss for the MCU on all three counts. 

I’m expecting an Eternals 2. Those things aren’t a miss in a way that necessarily dooms a sequel.

[Krissykins]

3 minutes ago, Eternal Legion said:

I’m expecting an Eternals 2. Those things aren’t a miss in a way that necessarily dooms a sequel.

It’ll be interesting to see if they announce a sequel.