CONTEST FOR GOLD: Spidey: No Way Home Opening Weekend Predictions | RESULTS ARE IN!

[Menor the Destroyer]

18 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:

Really, I meant, folks outside the diehard fans (who I understand will rush to see it.)

Crossovers of popular characters are historically quite big with general audiences. 

[Dementeleus]

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Edited November 13, 2021 by Plain Old Tele

[XXR vs XXR]

Just now, Plain Old Tele said:

🤷‍♂️

 

What's your prediction for OW? 

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Plain Old Tele said:

Who is “we”?

 

46 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:

Really, I meant, folks outside the diehard fans (who I understand will rush to see it.)

 

As a person who Does Not Care In The Slightest about NWH. I do think a lot of these sky high predictions are being driven by the insane engagement anything NWH related on social media/YouTube.  Even for cape flicks, the interest appears to be very high.

 

Now I'm not nearly sold on 200m for many reasons (stopping and starting mostly with the 'rona, though there are other factors at play).  But I'm sorta kinda in the 150-ish range without giving it too much thought or analysis.

[Deep Wang]

47 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:

Really, I meant, folks outside the diehard fans (who I understand will rush to see it.)

 

I was really just meaning literally anyone from theater chains to us box office nerds.  I think there are more people than Spidey fans that are looking at this to give us some kind of sign that things are returning to pre-pandemic levels.  I just don't think anything post pandemic has the potential that this one does.  

[Dementeleus]

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Edited November 13, 2021 by Plain Old Tele

[Dementeleus]

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Edited November 13, 2021 by Plain Old Tele

[Deep Wang]

3 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:

We’re not post-pandemic yet, though (and if anything I think things will be in slightly worse shape then than now.)

 

Okay, so post the start of the pandemic then lol.

[TwoMisfits]

7 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:

We’re not post-pandemic yet, though (and if anything I think things will be in slightly worse shape then than now.)

 

That is why I'm mentally hedging on $200M...it's an easy call if we were ever at the end of this pandemic, but we just can't seem to find an ending...and that's why I reserve the right to flip my thoughts on this one.  

 

If it goes catastrophic, which I'm gonna say is sub $100M DOM OW, then there's a big box office problem which is gonna carryover medium to long term.  Nothing about this movie says "only $100M" opener, not with the excitement, not with the timing, not with the engagement metrics...so if that's what it goes, well, there's not just a Covid box office problem, but there's an actual long term structural problem that developed during this time on top...

[Dementeleus]

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Edited November 13, 2021 by Plain Old Tele

[XXR vs XXR]

37 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:

It’s literally one of the first posts in this thread. Don’t worry, I’m predicting it’ll be the highest OW this year.   

 

Ahh right that prediction that will be closer to OD than OW. 

[Ronin46]

Well I said 150 OW a few weeks ago. Seems everyone thinks thats low. I wont change my final prediction by much I think. Something in the 150 to 160 range.

[Ms Lady Hawk]

Preview: 18.5

Friday: 36.0

Saturday: 44.5

Sunday: 36.0

 

Weekend- $135,000,000 

[Menor the Destroyer]

Sub-100 is like 70% of what FFH would have made with a normal 3-day opening. Yeah that would be a disaster especially considering Venom 2 was able to outdo the first despite no added elements. Even Christmas legs wouldn't get it close to FFH's total. If NWH opens sub-100 I expect a whole lot of day and date announcements. 

[john2000]

3 minutes ago, Menor said:

Sub-100 is like 70% of what FFH would have made with a normal 3-day opening. Yeah that would be a disaster especially considering Venom 2 was able to outdo the first despite no added elements. Even Christmas legs wouldn't get it close to FFH's total. If NWH opens sub-100 I expect a whole lot of day and date announcements. 

With all this hype i would suprised if it didnt hit at least 100

[Ronin46]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

Sub-100 is like 70% of what FFH would have made with a normal 3-day opening. Yeah that would be a disaster especially considering Venom 2 was able to outdo the first despite no added elements. Even Christmas legs wouldn't get it close to FFH's total. If NWH opens sub-100 I expect a whole lot of day and date announcements. 

 

If it does under 100 we may as well shut up shop and move to the streaming thread. I cant see it doing anything like that. I think 130M is the floor and things would have to go wrong for that to happen (very bad reviews, huge covid surge).

[Cap]

3 hours ago, Deep Wang said:

 

That's what I keep coming back to. 

 Make it officially give me your digits!!

[Deep Wang]

7 minutes ago, Cap said:

 Make it officially give me your digits!!

[baumer]

7 hours ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think most of them have it increasing from the true Friday number.  

 

Date	Rank	Gross	%YD	%LW	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Days
Jul 6, 2017	P	$15,400,000			3,450	$4,464	$15,400,000
Jul 7, 2017	1	$50,780,982			4,348	$11,679	$50,780,982	1
Jul 8, 2017	1	$37,045,244	-27%		4,348	$8,520	$87,826,226	2
Jul 9, 2017	1	$29,201,277	-21%		4,348	$6,716	$117,027,503	3

[XXR vs XXR]

41 minutes ago, Menor said:

Sub-100 is like 70% of what FFH would have made with a normal 3-day opening. Yeah that would be a disaster especially considering Venom 2 was able to outdo the first despite no added elements. Even Christmas legs wouldn't get it close to FFH's total. If NWH opens sub-100 I expect a whole lot of day and date announcements. 

Yea sub-$100M would be an absolute disaster but luckily that's also impossible. This doing only 10% more than V2 is preposterous. 

I suppose if COVID surges, theater capacity drops and it's a 25 Critics RT / 50 Audience RT / B- Cinemascore; I can see this only doing 50% over V2 OW 😅