NWH Prediction Contest/Game: DOM and Weekend Ranks. Deadline Dec 19 11:59 Pacific

[Noctis]

Anyway, I predict $205m/$565m

[TwoMisfits]

Username	TwoMisfits
DOM rank	8 (I think?)
DOM gross	$625,696,969

 

Even if OW walk ups disappoint the boards' current hopes, I just think this has this amount of audience in it at some point, since it will be around til what, The Batman? 

 

And I'm still in the "over the Avengers DOM" club, and I'm not gonna second guess my initial gut again on this movie...  

Edited December 15, 2021 by TwoMisfits

[TalismanRing]

 

Username	TalismanRing
DOM rank	5
DOM gross	$690.35m

 

 

[CloneWars]

Username	CloneWars
DOM rank	1
DOM gross	$1 Billion

 

Username	CloneWars
Weekend	Predicted Rank
1	2nd
2	1st
3	1st
4	2nd
5	2nd
6	1st
7	2nd
8	3rd
9	3rd
10	3rd
11	5th
12	15th

[Joyous Legion]

14 minutes ago, CloneWars said:

Username	CloneWars
DOM rank	1
DOM gross	$1 Billion

 

Username	CloneWars
Weekend	Predicted Rank
1	2nd
2	1st
3	1st
4	2nd
5	2nd
6	1st
7	2nd
8	3rd
9	3rd
10	3rd
11	5th
12	15th

Hooooly shit

[Issac Newton]

NWH Prediction:

(biting lips.....)

OW : $230M-$260M

Finals : $800M-$950M

 

Deadline passed I guess?

Edited December 16, 2021 by Issac Newton

[Joyous Legion]

4 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

NWH Prediction:

(biting lips.....)

OW : $230M-$260M

Finals : $800M-$950M

 

Deadline passed I guess?

It’s scheduled to close in a little over 25 hours (though I’ve been thinking on pushing the deadline for everything except wknd1 to end of Sunday — @Multiverse of XXR, thoughts?).   
 

We will need a specific number by then however — I could just take the average or the geomean of the range if you’d like, and then convert to the appropriate rank.

[Issac Newton]

1 minute ago, Product Driven Legion said:

We will need a specific number by then however — I could just take the average or the geomean of the range if you’d like, and then convert to the appropriate rank.

Okay, No problem!

[Joyous Legion]

5 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Okay, No problem!

I’m a geomean kind of guy, so this is what I’ve converted your submission to for now

 

Spoiler

Username	Isaac Newton
DOM rank	2nd
DOM gross	871,779,788
Username	Isaac Newton
Weekend	Predicted Rank
1	4th
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

 

[KP1025]

Username	KP1025
DOM rank	3
DOM gross	$781,360,700

 

 

Username	KP1025
Weekend	Predicted Rank
2	3
3	4
4	6
5	8
6	25
7	23
8	46
9	70
10	62
11	85
12	109

 

 

Edited December 20, 2021 by KP1025

[Shanks]

Username	Shanks
DOM rank	1
DOM gross	$937,772,825

 

 

[Joyous Legion]

Longer explanation later as it’s a very busy night (that itself is one of the reasons 😛 ) but we are indeed pushing the deadline to Sunday night. Just weekends 2-12 now, for 66 points.

[Chrysaor]

I'm not sure what sections are still eligible for submission, but I'll just enter this and whatever counts counts and whatever doesn't can just be for fun:

 

 I'm torn between a more "modest" $720MM and a totally go-for-broke $850MM. I think that beyond stellar word-of-mouth, the holiday corridor, and crucially, the fact that this is the first true event movie in two years is going to result in insane legs, either way. If it manages a 3x multiplier or close to it, then I think it'll naturally top out around $840-850MM but Marvel and Sony will do everything in their power it to help it just barely out-gross Endgame. On the other hand, I could just as easily see it "only" having a 2.6x and grossing ~720MM (with this kind of reception and the holiday corridor, I really just can't fathom it getting anything less than a 2.5x). Oh well, I might as well go for broke.

 

Username	Chrysaor
DOM rank	2
DOM gross	$858,676

 

 

1	2nd ($276MM)
2	5th
3	3rd
4	3rd
5	3rd
6	4th
7	6th
8	9th
9	11th
10	22nd
11	67th
12	157th

Edited December 17, 2021 by Chrysaor

[Joyous Legion]

7 minutes ago, Chrysaor said:

I'm not sure what sections are still eligible for submission, but I'll just enter this and whatever counts counts and whatever doesn't can just be for fun:

Thanks for the submission and good luck. Everything is open until Sun Pacific midnight in case you feel an urge to do any tweaking.  
 

FYI the 4th and 5th weekend #1 on mojo are American Sniper’s 1st and 2nd of wide release, so these would be some truly insane legs — I think your weekends add up to some 780M or so even before weekdays contribute anything. I don’t love having expansions muck things up but we need a consistent and easily referenced standard.

[CloneWars]

4 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

Thanks for the submission and good luck. Everything is open until Sun Pacific midnight in case you feel an urge to do any tweaking.  
 

FYI the 4th and 5th weekend #1 on mojo are American Sniper’s 1st and 2nd of wide release, so these would be some truly insane legs — I think your weekends add up to some 780M or so even before weekdays contribute anything. I don’t love having expansions muck things up but we need a consistent and easily referenced standard.

Mojo having AS for 4th weekend is bullshit. That was it's first wide weekend. I mean I know it get's in on a technicality, but I don't agree with. I don't mean for purposes of this contest. I just don't agree with Mojo having that weekend up there.

[Joyous Legion]

10 minutes ago, CloneWars said:

Mojo having AS for 4th weekend is bullshit. That was it's first wide weekend. I mean I know it get's in on a technicality, but I don't agree with. I don't mean for purposes of this contest. I just don't agree with Mojo having that weekend up there.

Yeah it’s clearly absurd. The numbers is reasonably responsive to feedback I’ve found — maybe we could get them to fix their lists with a coordinated email campaign 😂

[KP1025]

To add to what @Product Driven Legion mentioned:

 

Even excluding American Sniper and assuming Avatar as the #1 on those weekends, the bare minimum of the 12 weekends above (with $276 million as the base OW) would be over $730 million. That would easily be over $1 billion domestic once weekdays are added. So definitely some adjustment needed in the weekend rankings if the prediction for the domestic total remains $858 million.

[KP1025]

Double post.

Edited December 17, 2021 by KP1025

[Chrysaor]

1 hour ago, Product Driven Legion said:

Thanks for the submission and good luck. Everything is open until Sun Pacific midnight in case you feel an urge to do any tweaking.  
 

FYI the 4th and 5th weekend #1 on mojo are American Sniper’s 1st and 2nd of wide release, so these would be some truly insane legs — I think your weekends add up to some 780M or so even before weekdays contribute anything. I don’t love having expansions muck things up but we need a consistent and easily referenced standard.

 

Yes, those were just placeholder numbers, mainly I just wanted to get my OW & DOM locked in. Hopefully, I'll have the chance to put in some actual guesses later for the subsequent weekends, but I just updated them with some slightly less ridiculous placeholders in case I don't.

 

I'd already seen your previous post about American Sniper counting for 4th & 5th weekend, but the reminder's a good one in case you get some latecomers who aren't already aware.

Edited December 17, 2021 by Chrysaor

[cannastop]

@Menace Legion

 

@GoblinXXR

 

how can you verify if you want to place a weekend ranking past the 200th place mark? Can you look for it?