The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[21C]

The reason for the Tuesday previews is most likely that WB trusts word of mouth on The Batman so much  they figure it'll increase the opening weekend, opposed to reducing it. They're counting on people that go out of those screenings on March 1st to gush about the film and recommend it to their friends and families who will have enough time to plan to go over on the weekend; that kind of word of mouth is not really factored into early presales like this, so I'm sticking to my 150-160 million prediction.

[keysersoze123]

4 hours ago, grim22 said:

Is MTC2 Regal? Because they have both in SoCal. Wednesday is Regal RPX, Tuesday is IMAX. If it's Cinemark, then I think they only have Wednesday, not sure.

 

 

@grim22 MTC2 early shows

Tuesday - 3339/4151 53028.25 14 shows

Wednesday - 17524/38141 258143.50 182 shows

 

There were more shows on wednesday that what I thought. Now I am Thinking 3-3.5m with early shows across all chains. 

 

Edit: based on show counts shared by @katnisscinnaplex I am thinking slightly over 4m across tue/wed. 

Edited February 11, 2022 by keysersoze123

[BruiseCruise]

Do you guys think The Batman first 6 days will beat FFH first 6 days? (185mil)

[RJ 95]

2 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

Do you guys think The Batman first 6 days will beat FFH first 6 days? (185mil)

Even if the review is excellent and WOM is excellent too, probably it will get 160-170m max. So no maybe. 120-150m is a good target for current tracking data. 

[XXR & Friends]

20 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

Do you guys think The Batman first 6 days will beat FFH first 6 days? (185mil)

 

It could, definitely. Right now I'm thinking $135M OW, and probably $30-33M Mon-Wed after that. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 2/4/2022 at 12:57 PM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Theaters	Shows	Change	Standard	PLF	IMAX	3D
Jackass Forever	3,225	80,243		76,315	3,928	0	0
Moonfall	3,241	64,611		55,468	9,143	4,187	0
Spider-Man	3,094	41,665	-27.72%	41,266	399	0	309
Scream 5	2,881	34,980	-38.29%	34,898	82	0	0
Sing 2	2,903	31,330	-16.35%	31,172	158	0	74
Redeeming Love	1,639	13,495	-36.49%	13,461	34	0	0
The King's Man	1578	13291	-34.53%	13275	16	0	0
The Wolf and the Lion	938	12,069		12,052	17	0	0
American Underdog	1,327	10,445	-37.43%	10,431	14	0	0
The 355	1,492	10,074	-51.33%	10,048	26	0	0
Ghostbusters	889	6,822	-28.27%	6,814	8	0	0
Licorice Pizza	694	6,509	-4.88%	6,509	0	0	0
West Side Story	658	3,915	-47.40%	3,904	11	0	0
House of Gucci	472	2,813	-50.84%	2,813	0	0	0
Encanto	396	2,787	-37.43%	2,781	6	0	6
Parallel Mothers	424	2,338	-64.26%	2,338	0	0	0
Kung Fu Panda	293	2,247		2,247	0	0	0
Belfast	337	2,223		2,223	0	0	0
Nightmare Alley: Vision In Darkness And Light	375	1,720	-71.84%	1,720	0	0	0
King's Daughter	279	1,665	-89.28%	1,665	0	0	0
Matrix Resurrections	235	1,362	-67.92%	1,362	0	0	0
Belle	199	1,311	-77.05%	1,311	0	0	0
Nightmare Alley	276	1,233	-42.09%	1,233	0	0	0

 

US showtime sample for 2/4/22 weekend

 

Preview shows for last night will be higher than actual since this doesn't account for the closures.  

OW shows comps

Jackass Forever - 80,243
Free Guy - 80,479

Dune - 82,661

 

Moonfall - 64,611

Snake Eyes - 64,832

Addams Family - 68,219

 

Future Releases

 

T-1 Week

Death on the Nile Early Access (2/9) - 824 (816 TC)

Death on the Nile - 33,327 (2,240 TC) excluding early access

Marry Me - 27,987 (2,321 TC)

Blacklight - 19,740 (1,627 TC)

 

T-1 Comps

Death on the Nile - 33,327

Moonfall - 33,048

Jackass Forever - 32,919

Halloween Kills - 32,962

 

Marry Me - 27,987

West Side Story - 27,605

 

Blacklight - 19,740

King's Man - 19,568 (3-day only; no previews)

 

T-2 Weeks Previews

Uncharted - 7,459 (2,177 TC) (1,890 PLF)

Dog - 3,104 (1,383 TC)

 

T-2 Weeks Comps

Uncharted - 7,459

Dune - 5,906

Eternals - 9,541

Ghostbustets - 9,550

(Don't love any of these, but nothing I've tracked has been closer at this point in time)

 

Dog - 3,104

Jackass Forever - 2,779

Dear Evan Hansen - 2,599

Movie	Theaters	Shows	Change	Standard	PLF	IMAX	3D
Death on the Nile	2,935	56,756		47,841	8,915	3,846	0
Marry Me	3,172	53,179		52,450	729	0	0
Jackass Forever	3,250	49,091	-38.82%	47,787	1,304	0	0
Moonfall	3,256	35,335	-45.31%	34,480	855	8	0
Blacklight	2,482	33,722		33,474	248	0	0
Spider-Man	2,867	31,294	-24.89%	30,943	351	0	159
Sing 2	2472	23163	-26.07%	23054	109	0	27
Scream 5	2,283	22,980	-34.31%	22,886	94	0	0
Licorice Pizza	1,775	16,513	153.69%	16,513	0	0	0
American Underdog	1,057	6,468	-38.08%	6,468	0	0	0
Belfast	858	5,122	130.41%	5,122	0	0	0
Redeeming Love	766	4,190	-68.95%	4,179	11	0	0
The Wolf and the Lion	693	4,119	-65.87%	4,114	5	0	0
The King's Man	611	3,308	-75.11%	3,308	0	0	0
Dune	618	2,644		2,637	7	0	7
Ghostbusters	401	2,305	-66.21%	2,294	11	0	0
West Side Story	375	1,841	-52.98%	1,835	6	0	0
King Richard	402	1,735		1,735	0	0	0
The 355	329	1,518	-84.93%	1,513	5	0	0
Encanto	228	1,428	-48.76%	1,428	0	0	0
Nightmare Alley	321	1,322	7.22%	1,322	0	0	0
House of Gucci	218	1,058	-62.39%	1,058	0	0	0
Parallel Mothers	178	903	-61.38%	903	0	0	0

 

US showtime sample for 2/11/22 weekend

 

OW shows comps

Death on the Nile - 56,756

Old - 56,613

 

Marry Me - 53,179

Dear Evan Hansen - 50,762

West Side Story - 54,697

 

Future Releases

 

T-1 Week

 

Uncharted - 50,667 (2,672 TC)

  - Dune - 45,388 (2,771)

  - NTTD - 63,789 (2,910)

Dog - 26,312 (2,172)

  - Marry Me - 27,987 (2,321)

  - West Side Story - 27,605 (1,950)

The Cursed - 11,540 (959)

 

T-2 Week Previews

 

Cyrano - 391 (280 TC)

  - French Dispatch - 506 (249)

 

T-3 Week Previews

Batman (Tuesday) - 351 (350)

Batman (Wednesday) - 485 (447)

Batman (Thursday) - 21,077 (2,439)

  - Spider-Man - 5,529 (793)

  - Eternals - 8,959 (2,267)

[el sid]

The Batman, counted today at 9am EST for Mar 3 (in the same 4 theaters as BW and F9):

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 386 (8 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 128 (10 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 39 (6 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 107 (11 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 4 theaters: 660.

Comps: BW had also after ca. 20 hours 300 sold tickets (Batman = x2.2)

and F9 had after ca. 1 week 275 sold tickets (Batman = x2.4)
Edit: Found the sold tickets after 1 day for Eternals (71.3M OW) and it were in sum in the same 4 theaters 286 sold tickets (in the AMC Fresh Meadows it were 225, in Grand Rapids 21, in Tempe/Phoenix 32 and Austin not more than 8; Batman = x2.31).
That's of course only a tiny extract but I can't complain.
And it has these nice multipliers despite the Fan First and Investor Connect Screenings: E.g. in the AMC Metreon it had today 394 sold tickets (probably the most crowded IMAX I've seen so far, Dune could be the only competitor) for the show on March 1 and 118 sold tickets for March 2. Here I have no comparison numbers but for sure the Thursday multipliers would look even better without these pre-preview shows (I don't remember how many pre-previews BW had).

Edited February 11, 2022 by el sid

[WittyUsername]

What I gather is that the pre-sales for Batman are pretty damn good, but because they’re not on the level of NWH, certain people are taking that as a bad sign? 

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

What I gather is that the pre-sales for Batman are pretty damn good, but because they’re not on the level of NWH, certain people are taking that as a bad sign? 

 

I think it's more that some folks were looking for a semi-arbitrary fraction of NWH's first day of sales and Batsy (potentially) not hitting that has caused some of the more pessimistic folks to get antsy.

Edited February 11, 2022 by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

Batman Friday

MTC2 - 24983/740959 322317.46 4833 shows

 

Key thing is initial show count is already huge. Let us see how PS grows. 

[Joyous Legion]

3 hours ago, WittyUsername said:

What I gather is that the pre-sales for Batman are pretty damn good, but because they’re not on the level of NWH, certain people are taking that as a bad sign? 

Not really. They're solid but they seem to be pointing toward like 20-27ish (roughly) which is solid but below what some people were getting hyped for.

[WittyUsername]

11 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

Not really. They're solid but they seem to be pointing toward like 20-27ish (roughly) which is solid but below what some people were getting hyped for.

I seriously doubt it’s going to be as low as $20 million, but regardless, the idea that the sales are “solid” doesn’t exactly debunk what I said. 

[keysersoze123]

16 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

Not really. They're solid but they seem to be pointing toward like 20-27ish (roughly) which is solid but below what some people were getting hyped for.

People always aim for something crazy. Does not mean actual BO is good or bad based on loony predictions. This is 1st movie set in its own stand alone universe and does not have any other pull except that character is very popular. Its doing well if you take out NWH which had huge nostalgia due to Mcguire/jackson coming back. This opening > 100m is good for 1st movie for sure. Let us 1st see how reactions/reviews are before predicting its legs. I hope its good but you never know. 

[Joyous Legion]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

People always aim for something crazy.

I mean... no. Sometimes people are spot on. Sometimes people undershoot.

[charlie Jatinder]

6 hours ago, grim22 said:

 

Personally, I would just comp Thursday, and then add about 4M to the comp (Tuesday will likely be a bit more than 2M, and Wednesday a bit less than that, so 4M between the 2 days sounds right)

No pre-sales has to consider all of them as previews because you are basically burning presales demand with those early screenings

Edited February 12, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[Joyous Legion]

3 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

I mean... no. Sometimes people are spot on. Sometimes people undershoot.

I understand it can be annoying to see tepid reactions based on expectations that you might personally think got overheated, but high expectations usually don't come out of thin air. "It will be the second best pandemic presales/previews/OW so people should automatically be enthused about that even if it comes on the lower end" doesn't really make sense either.   

 

 

Edited February 12, 2022 by Product Driven Legion

[WittyUsername]

At this point, I’m fairly confident in saying that nothing short of bad reviews and word of mouth will stop the movie from opening to over $120 million. 

Edited February 12, 2022 by WittyUsername

[excel1]

Presales at 2-3x that of Black Widow is indeed huge. The box office was fairly normal last July when it opened after Quiet Place and Fast/Furious 23 brought life back to it. 

[BruiseCruise]

Homecoming opened to 117mil, I think 120 mil would be an excellent start, anyways legs matter more and with all of match to itself it should clean up house 

[Dragoncaine]

Review embargo drops 2/28. I'm guessing we will see social media reactions either next weekend or Monday, 2/21, one week before reviews.