The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[CJohn]

People talking about 100M for Sonic are setting a 60M OW or so like if it is a huge disaster. Stop with the silly hype train. This will have a normal previews to OW ratio unlike the first one.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

43 minutes ago, CJohn said:

People talking about 100M for Sonic are setting a 60M OW or so like if it is a huge disaster. Stop with the silly hype train. This will have a normal previews to OW ratio unlike the first one.

For real, the pandemic killed (or at best severely reduced) any chances of a Dark Knight-style breakout for this movie. Without it I could see a triple digit opening happening, with families also being on board on top of the core fanbase. Now, with families more or less out of the picture, it's going to play out far more like a Marvel/superhero film than a family picture. The goodwill garnered by the first movie will still be very helpful.

[Noiret Jak]

Because you sincerely think about the opening $100M?
The film collected 148 in total in the US, I rather see a start at 50/55M$ (covid with still a small effect on theaters).

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

THURSDAY the 7th:

 

CINEMARK (10)

3 XD- (1), 6 XD (9)

330 (0), 4 (0), 630 (0), 7 (0)

 

AMC (26)

3 DOLBY (18)

4 (0), 7 (7)

 

Nothing about thursday sales point anything towards 100m here for Sonic

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Buoyed by strong reviews and A-list actors, including a cameo from Brad Pitt and villainous turn from Daniel Radcliffe, “The Lost City” is expected to earn a promising $20 million in its opening weekend. Those ticket sales would put the film in an extremely close race against “The Batman” for first place.

 

Variety:

 

They're predicting 18-20m for Batman

[XXR & Friends]

8 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Yeah. ATP is fixed. 

Just checked some of the theaters I track and they’re higher than this. Dolby at Empire 25 and South Barrington 24 are both at $40, and it’s not lower for child or senior tickets.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

While the female demographic has shown to be one of the more reluctant to return to cinemas during the pandemic, that is about to change this weekend with Paramount’s The Lost City which is eyeing a mid $20M start, possible $30M+ take at 4,228 theaters.

The Sandra Bullock-Channing Tatum-Brad Pitt-Daniel Radcliffe romantic adventure comedy is the first of six major studio releases, one of which will largely open every Friday through April 22. Remember, how vibrant October was with a major opener every weekend? Well, that’s what’s in the cards as we head into April with Sony/Marvel’s Morbius on April 1, Paramount’s Sonic the Hedgehog 2 on April 8, Warner Bros.’ Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore on April 15, and two on April 22, Lionsgate’s Nicolas Cage satire The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent and Universal/Dreamworks Animation’s The Bad Guys. Morbius, Sonic the Hedgehog 2 and Fantastic Beasts 3 stand to open to at least $50M, I hear. This all before Disney/Marvel’s Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness lights the summer box office on fire.

 

DEADLINE

[Pinacolada]

3 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

While the female demographic has shown to be one of the more reluctant to return to cinemas during the pandemic, that is about to change this weekend with Paramount’s The Lost City which is eyeing a mid $20M start, possible $30M+ take at 4,228 theaters.

The Sandra Bullock-Channing Tatum-Brad Pitt-Daniel Radcliffe romantic adventure comedy is the first of six major studio releases, one of which will largely open every Friday through April 22. Remember, how vibrant October was with a major opener every weekend? Well, that’s what’s in the cards as we head into April with Sony/Marvel’s Morbius on April 1, Paramount’s Sonic the Hedgehog 2 on April 8, Warner Bros.’ Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore on April 15, and two on April 22, Lionsgate’s Nicolas Cage satire The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent and Universal/Dreamworks Animation’s The Bad Guys. Morbius, Sonic the Hedgehog 2 and Fantastic Beasts 3 stand to open to at least $50M, I hear. This all before Disney/Marvel’s Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness lights the summer box office on fire.

 

DEADLINE

Damn... no mention of the Northman. Fucking Focus Features

 

Anyway is there any word on how much The Lost City collected on Saturday? Basically everywhere I looked was packed so I imagine it did a healthy amount

[Krissykins]

2 minutes ago, Pinacolada said:

Damn... no mention of the Northman. Fucking Focus Features

 

Anyway is there any word on how much The Lost City collected on Saturday? Basically everywhere I looked was packed so I imagine it did a healthy amount

Variety said 2/3rds of showings were sell outs.

[BruiseCruise]

$68 mil budget for Lost City 

[Skim Beeble]

I don't know if any one brought this up, but Thursday previews start at 2pm for Fantastic Beasts. (At least at one of my local theaters)

[Eric is Anxious]

3 minutes ago, Skim Beeble said:

I don't know if any one brought this up, but Thursday previews start at 2pm for Fantastic Beasts. (At least at one of my local theaters)

You have GOT to be fucking kidding me. Just open movies on Thursday at this point. Don't even bother with this pathetic ruse of "previews" anymore. It's all soooooooo stupid.

[Joyous Legion]

Soon™️

[CoolioD1]

6 hours ago, DAJK said:

Well, now wouldn’t it be nice if in generations from now, the pandemic will be seen as “bookended by the two Sonic movies”

my brother hasn't been to the movies since Sonic 1 and he's agreed to see Sonic 2 with me.👍

[misterpepp]

There's an IMAX early access for FB3 on Apr 6, pretty early for one of those.

 

Also an IMAX early access for Everything Everywhere on Mar 30 (after the limited opening, but a week-and-a-half before the nationwide rollout).

Edited March 23, 2022 by datpepper

[BruiseCruise]

Won't be too long before we get 2PM and onwards preview from m-th and studios count it as OW

[Eric is Anxious]

22 hours ago, Eric Says Trans Rights said:

The Lost City Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	58	518	12715	4.07%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 37

 

Comp

2.894x of Jungle Cruise T-3 (7.81M)

3.342x of Free Guy T-3 (7.35M)

0.925x of Uncharted T-3 (3.42M)

The Lost City Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	61	676	12953	5.22%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 158

 

Comp

2.840x of Jungle Cruise T-2 (7.67M)

3.031x of Free Guy T-2 (6.67M)

0.978x of Uncharted T-2 (3.62M)

 

Of the 158 tickets sold today, 61 of them were for tonight's "Girls Night Out" showings. Said shows sold 76 tickets combined, a far cry from the 282 tickets sold on the Saturday Fandango showings.

[Eric is Anxious]

22 hours ago, Eric Says Trans Rights said:

Morbius Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-10 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	69	717	14751	4.86%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 45

 

Comp

0.607x of Shang-Chi T-10 (5.34M)

0.844x of Venom 2 T-10 (9.8M)

0.394x of Eternals T-10 (3.74M)

Morbius Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	74	771	15649	4.93%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 54

 

Comp

0.584x of Shang-Chi T-9 (5.14M)

0.866x of Venom 2 T-9 (10.05M)

0.406x of Eternals T-9 (3.85M)

[Eric is Anxious]

22 hours ago, Eric Says Trans Rights said:

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-17 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	57	445	10373	4.29%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 38

 

Comp

0.872x of Shang-Chi T-17 (7.68M)

1.014x of Venom 2 T-17 (11.76M)

1.766x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-17 (7.95M)

2.318x of Uncharted T-17 (8.57M)

 

Adjusted Comp

7.082x of Sonic the Hedgehog T-17 (21.24M)

 

So like...I know it's still very early and the film could come to earth by a lot and it probably will...but is this hitting 100M? Because unless I'm just really tired and not thinking straight, preview numbers like these feel like safe bets for 100M. That...probably won't happen, but I would not mind tbh.

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-16 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	57	466	10373	4.49%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 21

 

Comp

0.660x of Shang-Chi T-16 (5.81M)

0.957x of Venom 2 T-16 (11.1M)

1.400x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-16 (6.3M)

2.330x of Uncharted T-16 (8.62M)

 

Adjusted Comp

6.117x of Sonic the Hedgehog T-16 (18.35M)

 

Alright, I'll say this upfront that I really should not have said 100M+ OW was a possibility for this. I've been having sleep issues since DST happened and was excruciatingly tired last night, so I wasn't really thinking straight nor acknowledging the different pre-sales patterns of my newest comps. It was completely my fault and I apologize for creating absurd expectations for everybody. Still, I do think Sonic is on a good path to increase from its predecessor, at least for its OW.

[Porthos]

On 3/21/2022 at 10:45 PM, Porthos said:

 

Morbius Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 days and counting

 

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	127	17884	18742	858	4.58%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

66

 

T-11 Comps

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
SC	62.63		149	1370		0/101	15632/17002	8.06%		5847	14.67%		5.51m
LTBC	67.99		93	1262		0/156	24816/26078	4.84%		7712	11.13%		7.89m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Morbius' current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     156/4476  [3.49% sold]
Matinee:    58/1518  [3.82% | 6.76% of all tickets sold]

 

Morbius Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	141	19381	20307	926	4.56%

 

Total Showings Added Today	14
Total Seats Added Today	1565
Total Seats Sold Today	68

 

T-9 Comps

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
SC	62.06		122	1492		0/108	15995/17487	8.53%		5847	15.84%		5.46m
LTBC	68.14		93	1359		0/168	26691/28050	4.84%		7712	12.01%		7.90m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Morbius' current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     161/5796  [2.78% sold]
Matinee:    61/1875  [3.25% | 6.59% of all tickets sold]