The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, A Star is Orm said:

The expert trackers on here will have a lot more info later tonight though.

 

I actually have Crimes of Grindelwald data, for all the good it'll do (i.e. none). Anyway, I just got done setting up my sheets and, well, I'm not encouraged, I'll put it that way.

 

I don't want to set negative expectations here as the day isn't even half over yet.  But I do think it is fair to note that Harry Potter fans are notorious for rushing out to buy tickets early.   Nearly on the level of Star Wars fans when it comes to frontloading on pre-sales (at least on a proportional basis).  And, well...  Not seeing a lot of tickets sold yet. 

 

Right now we're at 220 tickets sold region wide.  For comparison, CoG sold 656 tickets on its first day of sales locally, with fewer theaters tracked.  If I restrict the sales to just the theaters I had way back in 2018, we're talking 200 tickets sold.  

 

Add in that the pre-sale window length is nearly half of CoG's and, like I said, I'm not exactly encouraged.

 

--

 

Now a few provisos.  Tickets prices have increased more than a bit since 2018.  On the other hand, Sacto's comps have been running ahead of what they were in 2019, never mind 2018.  Plus my tracking pattern is different enough that I really do think that any comparison to 2018 is worse than worthless.  Only reason I even noted CoG was to show that it sold a decent amount of tickets on its first day despite being a month out from release.

 

Any further thoughts I have will have to wait until tonight after I'm done with the official track of the day.  Mostly just wanted to remind folks in the thread that HP/FB fans tend to have frontloaded pre-sales and to keep that in mind when the tracking reports come in tonight/tomorrow.

 

@Noctis

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

I'll check the AMC Dolby and IMAX later but not much activity for FB at my Cinemark

 

Thursday the 14th (5)

210 (0), 540 (0), 910 (0)

245 XD (0), 615 XD (5), 945 XD (0)

Friday the 15th (8)

1130 XD (4), 3 XD (0), 630 XD (0), 10 XD (0)

1230 (0), 4 (0), 730 (4)

 

Bad.

[BruiseCruise]

https://deadline.com/2022/03/morbius-box-office-opening-weekend-projections-1234990463/

 

Sony saying $33mil OW,deadline says could get as high as 50m

[BruiseCruise]

https://www.digitalspy.com/movies/a39570513/fantastic-beasts-3-reactions-secrets-of-dumbledore/

[filmlover]

Morbius is getting a lot of screens at the multiplexes around me for the weekend. There must be data indicating it could reach that high end $50M projection for it to get this many.

[Cooper Legion]

16 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Morbius is getting a lot of screens at the multiplexes around me for the weekend. There must be data indicating it could reach that high end $50M projection for it to get this many.

Rebellions are built on hope.   
 

Well, hope and low screen demand from the rest of the market 😛 

[filmlover]

Just now, Villain Legion said:

Rebellions are built on hope.   
 

Well, hope and low screen demand from the rest of the market 😛 

I'm mostly surprised because it's a relatively short movie (at least in this day and age where the average flick seems to be over 2.5 hours) unless there's an Uncharted-esque walk-up surge. It doesn't feel like the buzz is there for it but that might be because it's hard to get a read on the atmosphere when the aftermath of the Oscars is still sorta drowning out all entertainment industry-related news and developments (including the release of the new MCU show tomorrow) at the moment.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

A24 should have went wide this week with Everything Everywhere. Or at least 500. 

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

A24 should have went wide this week with Everything Everywhere. Or at least 500. 

It's having a handful of IMAX shows for one night only tomorrow. Wonder how many theaters they're planning to expand it to this weekend.

[Old Spice]

Just got done watching CODA and decided to check the first day sales for FB in the Salt Lake Valley again. It's a mixed/not great bag.

 

The Cinemark Sugarhouse I normally track has gone from 8 tix sold (six screenings) seven hours ago to 10 tickets now. Blech.

 

The PLFs are faring a little better. Here are the counts for the prime evening slot.

Jordan Commons: 38 (+ 17 from earlier today)

Farmington: 17 (unchanged)

Layton: 16 (+16)

Draper: 12 (+6)

Century 16: 12 (+3)

Spanish Fork: 60 (+ 17)

Not good, but at least better. And I don't know what is going on in Spanish Fork, but FB is within shouting distance of The Batman there. 🤔

 

In sum, I really thought there would be more movement by now, especially since Utah has always been known as a great HP market (for several years we were #1 in per capita ticket sales) but it is what it is.

 

CODA was great though.

 

 

 

Edited March 30, 2022 by A Star is Orm

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

I actually have Crimes of Grindelwald data, for all the good it'll do (i.e. none). Anyway, I just got done setting up my sheets and, well, I'm not encouraged, I'll put it that way.

 

I don't want to set negative expectations here as the day isn't even half over yet.  But I do think it is fair to note that Harry Potter fans are notorious for rushing out to buy tickets early.   Nearly on the level of Star Wars fans when it comes to frontloading on pre-sales (at least on a proportional basis).  And, well...  Not seeing a lot of tickets sold yet. 

 

Right now we're at 220 tickets sold region wide.  For comparison, CoG sold 656 tickets on its first day of sales locally, with fewer theaters tracked.  If I restrict the sales to just the theaters I had way back in 2018, we're talking 200 tickets sold.  

 

Add in that the pre-sale window length is nearly half of CoG's and, like I said, I'm not exactly encouraged.

 

--

 

Now a few provisos.  Tickets prices have increased more than a bit since 2018.  On the other hand, Sacto's comps have been running ahead of what they were in 2019, never mind 2018.  Plus my tracking pattern is different enough that I really do think that any comparison to 2018 is worse than worthless.  Only reason I even noted CoG was to show that it sold a decent amount of tickets on its first day despite being a month out from release.

 

Any further thoughts I have will have to wait until tonight after I'm done with the official track of the day.  Mostly just wanted to remind folks in the thread that HP/FB fans tend to have frontloaded pre-sales and to keep that in mind when the tracking reports come in tonight/tomorrow.

 

@Noctis

Three and a half years of presale heaviness also factors in...man that is a yikes start. 

Edited March 30, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[filmlover]

I've been getting Divergent: Allegiant/Dark Phoenix vibes from Fantastic Beasts 3 this whole time where only insanely good reviews could reverse the feeling of general apathy that's in the air.

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Three and a half years of presale heaviness also factors in...man that is a yikes start. 

 

I'll save my "yikes" for when I see the first day actual and not a half/third of a day sample, but...  Let's just say that I have to keep reminding myself that CoG pulled in 9.1m on its Tue/Thr preview last go around.  Even if it sells 50% fewer tickets, inflation alone should drag it back up somewhat.  How high though, we'll just have to see.

[Porthos]

Since I've finally figured out how to easily paste all of my charts directly from Apple Numbers onto this board without having to hand craft entries anymore (Mozilla Firefox to the rescue, who knew?), I can have as many (or as few) comps as I want now.  So what do we think will be decent-ish comps for FB3 anyway?

 

I reckon most of the Marvel films should be relatively fine due to their fan rush, with the exception of Let There Be Carnage.  Shang-Chi is probably fairly close to ideal at T-17 vs T-16.  But what else has come out in the last year or so should go into the hopper?  Willing to entertain suggestions now that it's super easy for me to port over data in a format I like (I've been avoiding using Google Sheets for not interesting reasons).

The two elephants in the room is that Marvel tends to have strong-ish walkups for a type film that also has a strong start, which we can't guarantee for Secrets of Dumbledore. Plus it had its premiere tonight, which means social reactions are flooding in co-mingling with first day of sales*

* For the record, I took most of my setting up my sheets sample before those reactions started to roll in, so they wouldn't have been a factor quite yet.

 

FWIW, probably will include Morbius as something of a worst-case scenario (though obvs a comp wouldn't be in there until we actually get a number).

Edited March 30, 2022 by Porthos

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Since I've finally figured out how to easily paste all of my charts directly from Apple Numbers onto this board without having to hand craft entries anymore (Mozilla Firefox to the rescue, who knew?), I can have as many (or as few) comps as I want now.  So what do we think will be decent-ish comps for FB3 anyway?

 

I reckon most of the Marvel films should be relatively fine due to their fan rush, with the exception of Let There Be Carnage.  Shang-Chi is probably fairly close to ideal at T-17 vs T-16.  But what else has come out in the last year or so should go into the hopper?  Willing to entertain suggestions now that it's super easy for me to port over data in a format I like (I've been avoiding using Google Sheets for not interesting reasons).

The two elephants in the room is that Marvel tends to have strong-ish walkups for a type film that also has a strong start, which we can't guarantee for Secrets of Dumbledore. Plus it had its premiere tonight, which means social reactions are flooding in co-mingling with first day of sales*

* For the record, I took most of my setting up my sheets sample before those reactions started to roll in, so they wouldn't have been a factor quite yet.

 

Willing to entertain suggestions, including Morbius as something of a worst-case scenario (though obvs a comp wouldn't be in there until we actually get a number).

Dune could be worth a look? Not much good comps for a Potter film since 2020. 

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Dune could be worth a look? Not much good comps for a Potter film since 2020. 

 

Could be.  PLF skew is real, though.  Plus more geared to adults. If we want to go down that road, NTTD might be a better idea.  I'll consider it though.

[Grebacio]

56 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Since I've finally figured out how to easily paste all of my charts directly from Apple Numbers onto this board without having to hand craft entries anymore (Mozilla Firefox to the rescue, who knew?), I can have as many (or as few) comps as I want now.  So what do we think will be decent-ish comps for FB3 anyway?

 

I reckon most of the Marvel films should be relatively fine due to their fan rush, with the exception of Let There Be Carnage.  Shang-Chi is probably fairly close to ideal at T-17 vs T-16.  But what else has come out in the last year or so should go into the hopper?  Willing to entertain suggestions now that it's super easy for me to port over data in a format I like (I've been avoiding using Google Sheets for not interesting reasons).

The two elephants in the room is that Marvel tends to have strong-ish walkups for a type film that also has a strong start, which we can't guarantee for Secrets of Dumbledore. Plus it had its premiere tonight, which means social reactions are flooding in co-mingling with first day of sales*

* For the record, I took most of my setting up my sheets sample before those reactions started to roll in, so they wouldn't have been a factor quite yet.

 

FWIW, probably will include Morbius as something of a worst-case scenario (though obvs a comp wouldn't be in there until we actually get a number).

Ghostbusters Afterlife?

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

Ghostbusters Afterlife?

 

Yeeesss, not a bad idea. 👍  Fan-ish rush at the beginning and broadly similar demos (nostalgia based property + appeal to families).

 

Yeah, good idea.  I think I'll put it in the hopper.  At T-17 v T-16 comps should be good too, once I switch to T-x in a few days.

[Menor the Destroyer]

The Ghostbusters fanbase is a lot less rabid than Potter, I wouldn't expect that comp to be super useful. Reason why I brought up Dune is that it was more likely to have that super invested group that wants to buy on day 1.

[Eric Prime]

On 3/28/2022 at 11:38 PM, Eric the Living Vampire said:

Morbius Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	82	1280	16367	7.82%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 171

 

Comp

0.556x of Shang-Chi T-3 (4.89M)

0.728x of Venom 2 T-3 (8.44M)

0.467x of Eternals T-3 (4.44M)

Morbius Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	118	1513	21534	7.03%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 233

 

Comp

0.576x of Shang-Chi T-2 (5.07M)

0.699x of Venom 2 T-2 (8.11M)

0.482x of Eternals T-2 (4.58M)

 

I dunno guys, Morbius is kind of doing fine for itself and would indicate a decent opening. Not sure it will lead to a decent final gross, but that's not what I focus on.