The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[el sid]

FB 3 had today for Thursday, April 14 (15 days left) 628 sold tickets.
Comps: Dune had after 1 day on sale 1.038 sold tickets

and Matrix 4 had with 15 days to go (till December 22) 1.409 sold tickets (6.4M OD and it had rather modest jumps after the first hype so I'm pretty sure that the gap will become smaller and smaller over the next days)

Uncharted had also with 15 days left 454 sold tickets.

 

And for Friday, April 15 (16 days left), FB3 had today 356 sold tickets.
Comps: Dune had after 1 day 1.426 (as mentioned before this film was not only fan-driven - its IMAX shows were also extremely popular and therefore I'm not sure if this comp isn't a bit unfair)

and Uncharted had with 16 days left 276 sold tickets for Friday.

Hard to say if this was a good or a bad start in my theaters. At least these presale numbers for FB 3 are better than what I expected after I saw the reports here. Not too bad so far IMO.

[el sid]

Morbius counted today at 11am EST for Thursday, March 31:
 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 429 (11 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 385 (12 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 69 (6 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 10 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 116 (8 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 364 (8 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 500 (14 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.873.

 

29% up since Monday.
Comps (all counted on Wednesday for Thursday): TSS had 1.565 sold tickets,

Uncharted had 1.062

and SC had 3.166,

Eternals had 3.581

and Venom (with a strong jump till tomorrow and very good walk-ups) had 2.498 sold tickets.
 

Morbius counted today at 11am EST for Friday, April 1:
 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 519 (17 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 269 (19 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 55 (12 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 13 (6 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 59 (14 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 266 (15 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 360 (18 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.541.

 

32.5% up since Monday.

Comps (all counted on Wednesday for Friday): TSS had 1.317 sold tickets,

Uncharted had 982

and Eternals had 3.613 sold tickets.
 

Not much change in my theaters: The Thursday presales are decent but the Friday numbers rather point to a 30-35M weekend at the moment.

[John Marston]

So Morbius is doing good? Damn it. Now Sony will keep making these villain movies 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

3 minutes ago, John Marston said:

So Morbius is doing good? Damn it. Now Sony will keep making these villain movies 

Eh, under 40m OW and likely under 100m DOM is pretty weak. I can't speak on international numbers but the only reason they won't be freaking out is because the budget is, what, 75m? 

 

I will say it was a mistake to go into production on Kraven. 

[dudalb]

29 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Eh, under 40m OW and likely under 100m DOM is pretty weak. I can't speak on international numbers but the only reason they won't be freaking out is because the budget is, what, 75m? 

 

I will say it was a mistake to go into production on Kraven. 

 

37 minutes ago, John Marston said:

So Morbius is doing good? Damn it. Now Sony will keep making these villain movies 

30 to 35 Millin is not good for a CBM nowdays.

Oh, Sony, will keep making Venom movies, but I sort of boubt we will see a Morbius  sequel.

It's not that a VIlldian solo movie could not be a good movie..."Joker" proved it could, and I think the story of Doctor Doom would make a good solo movie, but Mobius is not a good choice for a solo movie.

[SupermanLego]

14 minutes ago, dudalb said:

 

30 to 35 Millin is not good for a CBM nowdays.

Oh, Sony, will keep making Venom movies, but I sort of boubt we will see a Morbius  sequel.

It's not that a VIlldian solo movie could not be a good movie..."Joker" proved it could, and I think the story of Doctor Doom would make a good solo movie, but Mobius is not a good choice for a solo movie.

Joker being the most iconic villain in CB history helps.

[Samwise the Brave]

I know, many variables and still 2 weeks to go, but any trackers here attempting to give a number for FB3's opening? 30M? 40? 50? Maybe a gut feeling

[CJohn]

30-35M OW for Morbius is awful. It needed at least 40M (and a 100M total) to be considered a hit.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Morbius

 

Thursday Cinemark (76)

4 XD (12), 7 XD (38), 10 XD (5)

5 (8), 6 (1), 8 (10), 9 (2)

Thursday AMC (197)

4 DOLBY (40), 7 DOLBY (110)

5 IMAX (4), 8 IMAX (33)

430 (0), 730 (10)

[EmpireCity]

2 hours ago, CJohn said:

30-35M OW for Morbius is awful. It needed at least 40M (and a 100M total) to be considered a hit.

 

Did it come out already?

[BruiseCruise]

I have a strong feeling Morbius will make a lot of people eat their words like Uncharted did 

[ImNotRacistAtAll]

14 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

I have a strong feeling Morbius will make a lot of people eat their words like Uncharted did 

Unfortunately... yeah. Hope it flops tho. 

[Rorschach]

Morbius (Wednesday Night Outlook)
Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX
    Thursday:
    IMAX showings: 56/1,164
        4:00 pm: 17/388
        7:00 pm: 39/388
        10:00 pm: 0/388
    2D showings: 148/426
        5:00 pm: 47/135
        6:00 pm: 44/78
        8:00 pm: 49/135
        9:00 pm: 8/78
    Total Sold: 204/1,590 (12.8% sold)

 

Comps:
Shang-Chi: $5.87 mil
Venom 2: $6.19 mil
Eternals: $5.54 mil
Average: $5.87 mil

 

    Friday:
    IMAX showings: 31/1,552
        11:00 am: 6/388
        2:00 pm: 0/388
        5:00 pm: 15/388
        8:00 pm: 10/388
    2D showings: 163/987
        10:00 am: 10/135
        12:00 pm: 13/78
        1:00 pm: 6/135
        3:00 pm: 3/78
        4:00 pm: 15/135
        5:55 pm: 32/78
        7:00 pm: 51/135
        9:00 pm: 25/78
        10:00 pm: 8/135
    Total Sold: 194/2,539 (7.6% sold)

 

Thurs + Fri: 398/4,129 (9.6% sold)

 

Comps:
Shang-Chi: $21.12 mil
Venom 2: $21.03 mil
Eternals: $15.9 mil
Average: $19.35 mil

 

[CJohn]

35 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Did it come out already?

As always with this forum, it will be judged by ticket pre-sales counted by a bunch of members. Therefore it is considered a certified FLOP. 

 

 

I am just having a good time, relax. I still think it will do well even with the under 20% RT score.

[Eric the Minion]

23 hours ago, Eric the Living Vampire said:

Morbius Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	118	1513	21534	7.03%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 233

 

Comp

0.576x of Shang-Chi T-2 (5.07M)

0.699x of Venom 2 T-2 (8.11M)

0.482x of Eternals T-2 (4.58M)

 

I dunno guys, Morbius is kind of doing fine for itself and would indicate a decent opening. Not sure it will lead to a decent final gross, but that's not what I focus on.

Morbius Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	120	1847	21750	8.49%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 334

 

Comp

0.570x of Shang-Chi T-1 (5.02M)

0.620x of Venom 2 T-1 (7.19M)

0.506x of Eternals T-1 (4.8M)

[Eric the Minion]

23 hours ago, Eric the Living Vampire said:

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	59	671	10791	6.22%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 36

 

Comp

0.509x of Shang-Chi T-9 (4.48M)

0.754x of Venom 2 T-9 (8.75M)

1.060x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-9 (4.77M)

2.158x of Uncharted T-9 (7.98M)

 

Adjusted Comp

3.291x of Sonic the Hedgehog T-9 (9.87M)

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	59	726	10791	6.73%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 55

 

Comp

0.515x of Shang-Chi T-8 (4.53M)

0.755x of Venom 2 T-8 (8.75M)

1.075x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-8 (4.84M)

2.174x of Uncharted T-8 (8.04M)

 

Adjusted Comp

2.927x of Sonic the Hedgehog T-8 (8.78M)

[Eric the Minion]

23 hours ago, Eric the Living Vampire said:

Fantastic Beasts 3 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-16 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	75	265	15949	1.66%

 

Comp

0.375x of Shang-Chi T-16 (3.3M)

0.521x of No Time to Die T-16 (3.28M)

0.495x of Dune T-16 (2.53M)

0.195x of Eternals T-16 (1.85M)

0.796x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-15 (3.58M)

 

Take out the Dune and Eternals comp for a moment (the former was a PLF beast, even by current standards and the latter will see a greater jump in the days ahead), and we have about...3.4M if we round up. 3.4M using Grindelwald's IM minus the Early Access screenings, which I know is faulty considering that came out a million years ago, it gives us...28.1M.

 

However you slice it, this was a piss-poor beginning here in Philly. Things could change, but I would assume (could be wrong) Potter is a fan-driven, "get tickets first thing" kind of franchise, so this could be a bad omen.

Fantastic Beasts 3 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-15 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	75	358	15949	2.24%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 93

 

Comp

0.432x of Shang-Chi T-15 (3.8M)

0.673x of No Time to Die T-15 (4.24M)

0.621x of Dune T-15 (3.17M)

0.248x of Eternals T-15 (2.36M)

0.913x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-14 (4.11M)

[Dragoncaine]

Personally, I'm catching Morbius for the hopeful "so bad it's good" aspect. Wouldn't be surprised if it hits $40m but also judging by these reviews, I'll be disappointed in myself for "paying" to see it (Regal Unlimited comes in clutch)

[Porthos]

On 3/30/2022 at 12:16 AM, Porthos said:

 

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	92	12224	12937	713	5.51%

 

Total Showings Added Today	3
Total Seats Added Today	497
Total Seats Sold Today	65

 

T-9 Unadjusted Comps 

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS	173.06		24	412		0/84	14323/14735	2.80%		2352	30.31%		7.10m
SC	47.79		122	1492		0/108	15995/17487	8.53%		5847	12.19%		4.21m
LTBC	52.47		97	1359		0/168	26691/28050	4.84%		7712	9.25%		6.09m
GB:A	122.93		50	580		0/116	16776/17356	3.34%		5847	12.19%		5.53m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Sonic 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-9 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	55.19		81	1223		0/80	11347/12570	9.73%		4407	15.32%		4.10m
Sonic (adj)	---		53	675		0/80	10243/10918	6.18%		---	---		---

ADJUSTEMENT NOTE:  Sonic (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters that had unreliable data polluting their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMP***
Sonic 2 = 0.87483x Detective Pikachu at the same sources of tracking at T-9 [4.2m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 15% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2019 to 2022.

 

Wednesday sales:    208/1700   [12.24% sold]   +17 tickets]
Thursday sales:      505/11237   [4.49% sold]   +48 tickets]
---    
Regal:        111/3088  [3.59% sold]
Matinee:    35/2387  [1.47% | 4.91% of all tickets sold]

 

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	92	12122	12937	815	6.30%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

102

 

T-8 Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS	174.89		54	466		0/86	14550/15016	3.10%		2352	34.65%		7.17m
SC	49.66		149	1641		0/108	15846/17487	9.38%		5847	13.94%		4.37m
LTBC	55.59		107	1466		0/168	26584/28050	5.23%		7712	10.57%		6.45m
GB:A	120.03		99	679		0/116	16677/17356	3.91%		5847	13.94%		5.40m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Sonic 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-8 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	58.20		100	1323		0/84	11791/13114	10.09%		4407	17.47%		4.33m
Sonic (adj)	---		95	770		0/80	10148/10918	7.05%		---	---		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Sonic (adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters that had unreliable data polluting their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMP***
Sonic 2 = 0.85928x Detective Pikachu at the same sources of tracking at T-8 [4.2m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 15% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2019 to 2022.

 

Wednesday sales:    247/1700   [14.53% sold]   +39 tickets]
Thursday sales:      568/11237   [5.05% sold]   +63 tickets]
---    
Regal:      133/3088  [4.31% sold]
Matinee:    45/2387  [1.89% | 5.52% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

There was a smattering of group sales which inflated the overall totals, but even so a fairly nice review bump all things considered.  Now we'll see how it goes the rest of the way.

Edited April 5, 2022 by Porthos

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

Secrets of Dumbledore Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-16 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	146	21739	22057	318	1.44%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

318

 

Day 1 Comps

USE WITH CAUTION - PROBABLY VERY UNRELIABLE AT THIS POINT

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
SC	57.40		554	554		0/92	15096/15650	3.54%		5847	5.44%		5.05m
NTTD	114.80		277	277		0/132	19954/20231	1.37%		7712	4.12%		7.12m
Dune	80.71		394	394		0/74	11255/11649	3.38%		2915	10.91%		4.12m
GB:A	159.80		199	199		0/104	15788/15987	1.24%		3034	10.48%		7.19m
Morbius	86.65		367	367		0/124	17244/17611	2.08%		—-			—-

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Sonic 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMP***

FB3 = 0.41006x FB2 at the same sources of tracking at Day 1 [3.4m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 10% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2018 to 2022.

   

Regal:     58/5540  [1.05% sold]
Matinee:    13/2688  [0.48% | 4.09% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Oooooof.

 

No way to really sugarcoat it.

 

I'm in a hurry so other thoughts later except to note that instead of adjusting the FB2 comp by 85% (due to Sacto having a larger share of the current DOM than it did in 2019) I'm ad-hocking it by 90% to try to capture ticket price raises.  It's an extremely adhoc comp anyway, so I can't say I care all that much.  The 40% of FB1's first day is much more noteworthy.  Especially since FB2 started at T-30 and this is starting at T-16.

 

 

 

Secrets of Dumbledore Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	148	21567	22057	490	2.22%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	0*
Total Seats Sold Today	172

* NOTE: The only showings added today were at the local drive-in theater which is non-reserved seating.

 

Day 2 Comps

USE WITH CAUTION - PROBABLY VERY UNRELIABLE AT THIS POINT

	%		Sold Day 2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
SC	67.49		172	726		0/99	15764/16490	4.40%		5847	8.38%		5.94m
NTTD	138.42		77	354		0/133	20265/20619	1.72%		7712	6.35%		8.58m
Dune	99.80		97	491		0/74	11158/11649	4.21%		2915	16.81%		5.09m
GB:A	197.58		49	248		0/108	16447/16695	1.49%		3034	16.15%		8.89m
Morbius	101.03		118	485		0/127	18290/18775	2.58%		—-			—-

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Secrets of Dumbledore's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMP***

FB3 = 0.51489x FB2 at the same sources of tracking at Day 2 [4.2m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 10% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2018 to 2022.

   

Regal:     89/5540  [1.61% sold]
Matinee:    18/2688  [0.67% | 3.67% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

MUCH better day than yesterday.  Even managed to exactly pace against Shang-Chi's Day 2 (as well as FB2's second day on a theater-by-theater basis).  Have to think the social media reactions are indeed helping.

 

How sustainable will this be?  Find out soon enough.  But since I "ooof"'ed at yesterday's numbers (rightly, IMO), have to say I liked today's.