The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Dr Strange Thursday

 

Cinemark (14)

XD: 3, 615, 930

3D: 4, 530, 715, 845

Standard: 330, 430, 5, 645, 745, 815, 10

[Porthos]

@Thanos Legion Went back and readjusted all Sonic 2 F9 comps that I've posted here.

 

Ironically enough I discovered that while I was reporting the correct adjusted raw seat numbers, I stupidly forgot to actually adjust the comp itself [stupid errors in sheets] - so in the end the comp didn't move all that much once I made extra sure everything was fixed.  Some went up a small amount, others (like the most recent) went down a little.

 

Either way, the F9 comp has been steadily rising since around T-09:

 

T-13: 4.06m

T-12: 4.07m

T-11: 4.05m

T-10: 4.05m

T-09: 4.10m

T-08: 4.33m

T-07: 4.52m

T-06: 4.88m

T-05: 5.09m

T-04: 5.22m

T-03: 5.50m

Edited April 5, 2022 by Porthos

[Tinalera]

Toronto Ontario

Taken April 5

 

Fantastic Beasts 3

Thurs April 15

10 theatres

44 Shows

 

Total Sold 549

Total Remaining 10829

Total Seats 11378

Percentage 4.83 

 

Sonic 2 

Thurs April 7 

10 Theatres

21 Shows

Total sold 87

Total Remaining 6811

Total seats 6898

Percentage 1.26

 

The tough thing with Cineplex when tickets go on sale, many theatres hold back alot of seating until the Wed before an opening, so most advance seats before then are of the "regular" and AVX type with some IMAX-but it really is a limited amount. Its only on the Wed before when ALL seating is released-as a result theres a strong chance many people, unless it's an absolute monster like an MCU tentpole or similar film, wait until the "good seats" become available on the Wed before opening, so sometimes the numbers of shows and seats tend to seem lacking. Interesting to note that Sonic 2 has kind of hung around the 1 percent mark, whereas Fantastic Beasts is already up to almost 5 percent, no doubt to the difference in popularity of the IPs.

 

 

[YM!]

On 4/3/2022 at 7:25 AM, YourMother said:

Sonic The Hedgehog 2 (4 days before previews, 5 before release)

4/3/22

North Shore Cinema 

Mequon, Wi

 

3:00 - 13/301

4:15 - 4/146

6:30 - 10/301

7:15 - 9/146

Comparisons: 

38.7% of Toy Story 4 ($4.64M previews/$46.8M OW)

81.8% of Aladdin ($5.72M previews/$74.86M OW)

128.6% of Pokémon: Detective Pikachu ($7.32M previews/$69.9M (nice) OW)

171.4% on Onward ($3.42M previews/$66.86M OW)

 

All of these comparisons are pre-COVID but they suggest really good numbers around $65m-70m with an average of $5.275M as I especially like the Aladdin and Pikachu comparisons so long as it continues to hold. However, I’m going about my gut this time with it, while I think previews wise it makes sense and my gospel for a theater in Wisconsin shouldn’t be an apt comparison but I’ve been getting Lego Batman and Pikachu vibes from it for the past few weeks now. I think if $60m was likely or even $55m+, it’d be at 50 tickets sold here. Especially when Sonic will probably skew older and male-er than most of these comparisons, alongside the kind of numbers @Porthos has been seeing in one of the biggest movie markets. 36 is respectable but I do worry about the bump leading up to this Tuesday. I’m thinking $45m-$55m with around $4.5M-$5.0M in previews.

Sonic The Hedgehog 2

(2 days before previews, 3 before release)

4/7/22

North Shore Cinema 

Mequon, WI

 

3:00 - 13/301

4:15 - 4/146

6:30 - 17/301

7:30 - 13/146

 

162% of The Secret Life of Pets 2 ($3.72M/$75.7M OW)

130.55% of Onward ($2.61M/$51.07M)

104% of Coco ($2.4M/$53.06M)

54% of Aladdin ($3.78M/$49.43M)
 

Yeah these comparisons are not good. Sticking by my predictions but let’s say, 4m previews/45-52m OW.

 

Will update with Menomonee Falls data later.

[kyrixos]

I honestly thought some of the impressive DVD sales would translate into a higher OW for Sonic 2.

Edited April 5, 2022 by kyrixos

[EmpireCity]

23 minutes ago, kyrixos said:

I honestly thought some of the impressive DVD sales would translate into a higher OW for Sonic 2.

 

Well, it might open to $70m+, so that would be an increase.  

[AJG]

38 minutes ago, kyrixos said:

I honestly thought some of the impressive DVD sales would translate into a higher OW for Sonic 2.

 

Unless a studio mentions impressive DVD sales themselves any online info relating to DVD sales is close to pure nonsense.

[katnisscinnaplex]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

 

Locally five theaters don't have any showtimes up yet, but on a like-for-like basis [and not including any DBOX showtimes]:

 

NWH:         177 showtimes

Batsy:         175 showtimes (includes various early showtimes)

Strange 2:  215 showtimes

 

That was the initial set for NWH.  It, um, went up from there.

 

So, yeah.  Locally at least theaters are going all-in on Strange 2.

 

In the last four hours, many of my tracked theaters have added multiple shows on top of their loaded slates 😒.  Already up to 380 shows on regionals.  Batman ended with 379 in these areas....  No Way Home got up to 509 in the end

[charlie Jatinder]

7 hours ago, KnucklesXXR said:

DS2 show times starting to populate. Not starting off with a major slate for Thursday. The eyeball test says it’s less than The Batman got.

In Harkins its more than NWH had after 7 days.

 

 

[XXR & Friends]

Just now, charlie Jatinder said:

In Harkins its more than NWH had after 7 days.

 

 

 

Seems like it is just a few of my theaters I track. My fault for commenting before checking them all. Some are surprisingly low, though. 

[YM!]

2 hours ago, YourMother said:

Sonic The Hedgehog 2

(2 days before previews, 3 before release)

4/7/22

North Shore Cinema 

Mequon, WI

 

3:00 - 13/301

4:15 - 4/146

6:30 - 17/301

7:30 - 13/146

 

162% of The Secret Life of Pets 2 ($3.72M/$75.7M OW)

130.55% of Onward ($2.61M/$51.07M)

104% of Coco ($2.4M/$53.06M)

54% of Aladdin ($3.78M/$49.43M)
 

Yeah these comparisons are not good. Sticking by my predictions but let’s say, 4m previews/45-52m OW.

 

Will update with Menomonee Falls data later.

Menomonee looks much stronger at 110 tickets sold at the same time but also has 7 showings for it. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

56 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

In the last four hours, many of my tracked theaters have added multiple shows on top of their loaded slates 😒.  Already up to 380 shows on regionals.  Batman ended with 379 in these areas....  No Way Home got up to 509 in the end

Santikos is at 158; NWH ended with 155 and Batman with 124. (Although, the new location accounts for 11 shows so technically still behind NWH in the same set of theaters.)

[WrathOfHan]

3 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Well, it might open to $70m+, so that would be an increase.  

[Eric is Quiet]

23 hours ago, Eric the Hedgehog said:

Ambulance Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	24	90	3857	2.33%

 

Comp

0.055x of F9 T-3 (395K)

0.600x of Snake Eyes T-3 (840K)

0.121x of The Suicide Squad T-3 (498K)

0.581x of Free Guy T-3 (1.28M)

0.469x of Moonfall T-3 (328K)

Ambulance Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	32	107	5160	2.07%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 17

 

Comp

0.055x of F9 T-2 (392K)

0.527x of Snake Eyes T-2 (738K)

0.119x of The Suicide Squad T-2 (488K)

0.480x of Free Guy T-2 (1.06M)

0.502x of Moonfall T-2 (352K)

[Eric is Quiet]

23 hours ago, Eric the Hedgehog said:

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	66	1395	12304	11.34%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 233

 

Comp

0.606x of Shang-Chi T-3 (5.33M)

0.793x of Venom 2 T-3 (9.2M)

1.331x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-3 (5.99M)

2.491x of Uncharted T-3 (9.22M)

 

Um...my profile pic? That says it all.

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	98	1774	16308	10.88%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 379

 

Comp

0.675x of Shang-Chi T-2 (5.94M)

0.820x of Venom 2 T-2 (9.51M)

1.375x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-2 (6.19M)

2.567x of Uncharted T-2 (9.5M)

[Eric is Quiet]

23 hours ago, Eric the Hedgehog said:

Fantastic Beasts 3 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-10 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	79	656	16391	4.00%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 58

 

Comp

0.555x of Shang-Chi T-10 (4.88M)

0.873x of No Time to Die T-10 (5.5M)

0.830x of Dune T-10 (4.23M)

0.361x of Eternals T-10 (3.43M)

1.131x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-10 (5.09M)

Fantastic Beasts 3 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	79	727	16391	4.44%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 71

 

Comp

0.551x of Shang-Chi T-9 (4.85M)

0.881x of No Time to Die T-9 (5.55M)

0.878x of Dune T-9 (4.48M)

0.382x of Eternals T-9 (3.63M)

1.148x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-9 (5.17M)

[ThomasNicole]

Presales started here in Brazil. 

 

Despite a big confusion about the time tickets should drop here, it's selling very fast. 

 

Not a NWH obviously, but lots of showings are nearly sold out after just 1 hour.

 

The Batman did +100M in local gross here and needed days to get to this point in presales. I think DS2 is definitely coming to +200M (NWH did 300M).

 

This will be huge if the demand are similar worldwide.

Edited April 6, 2022 by ThomasNicole

[Joyous Legion]

2 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Presales started here in Brazil. 

 

Despite a big confusion about the time tickets should drop here, it's selling very fast. 

 

Not a NWH obviously, but lots of showings are nearly sold out after just 1 hour.

 

The Batman did +100M in local gross here and needed days to get to this point in presales. I think DS2 is definitely coming to +200M (NWH did 300M).

 

This will be huge if the demand are similar worldwide.

Obviously will be plenty of market to market variation, but I am basically looking to hit 60% NWH as a crude baseline. So 200 from Brazil be good enough.

[charlie Jatinder]

7 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Presales started here in Brazil. 

 

Despite a big confusion about the time tickets should drop here, it's selling very fast. 

 

Not a NWH obviously, but lots of showings are nearly sold out after just 1 hour.

 

The Batman did +100M in local gross here and needed days to get to this point in presales. I think DS2 is definitely coming to +200M (NWH did 300M).

 

This will be huge if the demand are similar worldwide.

Cinepolis seems down. Cinemais is slow but working.

[ThomasNicole]

Just now, charlie Jatinder said:

Cinepolis seems down. Cinemais is slow but working.

Yes, the biggest app here is ingresso.com and also crashed for some good minutes which rarely happens, but is back now (a bit slow too). 

 

Definitely feels like a big event movie, at least here.