The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[YM!]

46 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

Im a bit surprised that Minions is ahead of Lightyear in that poll. Toy Story 4 was still huge, while i was under the impression that the Despicable Me franchise was on the decline.

Same but I kind of get it. While I think Lightyear will likely be bigger domestic, Illumination knows how to market their films and the fact that I do think Lightyear will skew older and being action heavy will draw more male than female and probably be a more frontloaded because of it (like Sonic 2 but a bit better legs)

[efialtes76]

Lightyear will make much more than Top Gun and Minions

[Maggie]

I get the feeling the difference between 1-3 and the rest is BIG. 1-3 over 400M, the rest ....over 100M less

Edited April 21, 2022 by Maggie

[Eric is Quiet]

I mean these Fandango polls are far from scientific and are usually prone to recency bias, both in terms of movies coming out sooner or just recently had trailers launch. These top 10s do usually work as an indicator of what is looking likely to be the top 10 of a season/year, and you just kinda have to do detective work on what will miss out. Honestly, if you take out Downton Abbey and add in Super Pets, and that top 10 seems legit, albeit it won't be anywhere near identical to the final rankings. (Though it helps the product this summer is a lot smaller than usual due to COVID. A smaller pool makes it easier to look at the top 10)

[AJG]

19 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

Lightyear will make much more than Top Gun and Minions

 

It'll make less than both of those films. 

[CJohn]

1 hour ago, EmpireCity said:

DUNGEONS & DRAGONS: HONOR AMONG THIEVES.  Set your tracking date for next March.  

I might be wrong, and hopefully I am, but this movie screams ultra mega legendary Lionsgate-sinking bomb for the ages.

 

I know this movie is from Paramount. My point is that if it were from Lionsgate it would sink them as hard as when the Moon crashed in their faces.

[el sid]

Massive Talent had today 440 sold tickets for tomorrow.

Up quite good 31.5% since yesterday.

Comps (both counted on Thursday for Friday): The Lost City had 695 sold tickets

and Hitman's Wife's Bodyguard had 203 sold tickets.

Would be around 20M which is of course not realistic. But the presales are good in my theaters and if this film hasn't horrible walk-ups it could come close to double digits.

 

The Northman had today 558 sold tickets in 6 theaters for tomorrow.

Up mediocre 20% since yesterday.

Comps (all counted on Thursday for Friday): The Last Duel had 124 sold tickets,

The Green Knight had 498 sold tickets

and Death on the Nile had 487 sold tickets.

So the Last Duel comp would mean ca. 20M, the Green Knight comp ca. 10M and the Nile comp 15M.

I would "predict" 15M because it really should have more mass appeal than The Green Knight.

Edit: Watched the trailer again and I forgot how special it is. Maybe a 12M OW is more realistic.

Edited April 21, 2022 by el sid

[el sid]

The Bad Guys had today 442 sold tickets for Friday.

Up ok 28% since yesterday.

Comps: Clifford had 152 sold tickets in 7 theaters,

Boss Baby 2 had 190 sold tickets in 6 theaters 

and Dolittle had 395 sold tickets in 7 theaters.

The comparison films were sequels or a brand so I guess The Bad Guys won't have the same walk-ups. But maybe around 20M?

 

By the way as if I wouldn't have enough problems with counting and reporting my AMCs also changed their sitemaps. Now it's way more difficult to see if a seat is occupied or not. With the help of the cursor it works but it takes way longer (took 1/2 - 1 hour today for around 1.5k tickets). It's halfway acceptable when it comes to smaller and medium sized films but it will become a big problem to count blockbusters. Hope they change it again.

 

 

Edited April 21, 2022 by el sid

[lorddemaxus]

2 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Which is awesome and shows that young people want to get back out into the world and not stream all day.  

 

I keep telling everyone, and look at the Netflix and CNN+ and many other news lately, that streaming is not the theater killer people thought it would be.  

They want to come out to mainly watch superhero movies. CNN+ isn't even for young people lol.

[Pinacolada]

1 hour ago, CJohn said:

I might be wrong, and hopefully I am, but this movie screams ultra mega legendary Lionsgate-sinking bomb for the ages.

 

I know this movie is from Paramount. My point is that if it were from Lionsgate it would sink them as hard as when the Moon crashed in their faces.

On paper I agree, but I expect those 2 directors (Goldstein and Daley?) to make a very fun, accessible movie after Game Night, and not a godawful train wreck. So that should give it a chance. Hopefully the budget isn't outrageous

 

Edited April 21, 2022 by Pinacolada

[Shawn Robbins]

2 hours ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

Im a bit surprised that Minions is ahead of Lightyear in that poll. Toy Story 4 was still huge, while i was under the impression that the Despicable Me franchise was on the decline.

 

2 hours ago, poweranimals said:

I was surprised to see that as well!

 

2 hours ago, YourMother said:

Same but I kind of get it. While I think Lightyear will likely be bigger domestic, Illumination knows how to market their films and the fact that I do think Lightyear will skew older and being action heavy will draw more male than female and probably be a more frontloaded because of it (like Sonic 2 but a bit better legs)

I like the point here about Lightyear potentially drawing a stronger older crowd (the people who vote in these polls).

 

But of course, let us also remember that Fandango is a division owned by NBCUniversal/Comcast.

 

I'm not sayin', I'm just... sayin'. 

[kyrixos]

If Bad Guys opens to 20Mish would it surpass Sonic 2 and FB3?

[XXR & Friends]

Alpha is just making stupid fucking website changes for no reason. Now the “graying” that indicates a seat is sold is barely any darker than the unsold seats and half the screens (the bigger ones) no longer have the seat numbers/rows on them. 
 

I will push through tonight’s count but I am reassessing whether to continue tracking after this.

[WrathOfHan]

Northman and Massive Talent are looking pretty good around NY tonight, less so Bad Guys but expected for a kids film this size. It's pretty much impossible to get a non-front row seat anywhere for Northman since most theaters don't have it on more than 1-2 screens compared to Massive Talent and Bad Guys.

Edited April 21, 2022 by WrathOfHan

[Tinalera]

55 minutes ago, MultiverseXXR said:

Alpha is just making stupid fucking website changes for no reason. Now the “graying” that indicates a seat is sold is barely any darker than the unsold seats and half the screens (the bigger ones) no longer have the seat numbers/rows on them. 
 

I will push through tonight’s count but I am reassessing whether to continue tracking after this.

I wonder if the greying is to stop any kind of tracking programs to count (I don't remember if  you are manual or python)? I know I do manual with mine and for each theatre theres a "seats sold/seats unsold" number and I track by that. Im surprised that the seats no longer have rows/numbers on them-have they become just "general admission" type seats I wonder?

[katnisscinnaplex]

9 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Day	Movie	Area	TC	Shows	Seats	Sold	New	% Sold
T-0	The Bad Guys	Jacksonville	6	27	3,199	52	13	1.63%
		Phoenix	6	20	2,480	61	22	2.46%
		Raleigh	8	18	1,854	104	30	5.61%
	The Bad Guys Total		20	65	7,533	217	65	2.88%
T-0	The Northman	Jacksonville	7	15	2,131	226	63	10.61%
		Phoenix	7	11	1,418	177	55	12.48%
		Raleigh	7	10	1,048	146	26	13.93%
	The Northman Total		21	36	4,597	549	144	11.94%
T-0	TUWoMT	Jacksonville	7	15	1,877	104	26	5.54%
		Phoenix	7	11	1,203	89	32	7.40%
		Raleigh	7	12	1,226	70	14	5.71%
	TUWoMT Total		21	38	4,306	263	72	6.11%

 

TUWoMT T-0 comps

 - Ambulance - 1.56x (1.09m)

 - Stillwater - 3.93x (1.1m)

 - HWB - 1.49x (1.22m)

 - X - 1.18x (519k)

 Average - 980k (Excluding EA)

 

Northman T-0 comps

 - Green Knight - 1.55x (1.16m)

 - Ghostbusters - .31x (1.27m)

 - Morbius - .245x (1.4m)

 - Last Duel - 4.16x (1.46m)

Average - 1.32m

 

Bad Guys T-0 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .124x (616k)

 - Encanto - .48x (720k)

 - Peter Rabbit 2 - .84x (757k)

 - Boss Baby 2 - .84x (1.1m)

Average - 798k

Day	Movie	Area	TC	Shows	Seats	Sold	New	% Sold
1-Hr	The Bad Guys	Jacksonville	6	27	3,199	108	56	3.38%
		Phoenix	6	21	2,519	96	35	3.81%
		Raleigh	8	18	1,854	167	63	9.01%
	The Bad Guys Total		20	66	7,572	371	154	4.90%
1-Hr	The Northman	Jacksonville	7	15	2,131	316	90	14.83%
		Phoenix	7	11	1,418	268	91	18.90%
		Raleigh	7	11	1,114	240	94	21.54%
	The Northman Total		21	37	4,663	824	275	17.67%
1-Hr	TUWoMT	Jacksonville	7	15	1,877	166	62	8.84%
		Phoenix	7	11	1,203	144	55	11.97%
		Raleigh	7	12	1,226	119	49	9.71%
	TUWoMT Total		21	38	4,306	429	166	9.96%

 

TUWoMT T-1 hr comps

 - Ambulance - missed

 - Stillwater - 3.2x (896k)

 - HWB - missed

 - X - 1.25x (550k)

Comps average - 723k (Excluding EA)

All movies T-1 hr average: 886k

R-rated movies average: 866k

6pm movies average: 914k

Action movies average: 818k

 

Northman T-1 hr comps

 - Green Knight - 1.485x (1.11m)

 - Ghostbusters - .35x (1.44m)

 - Morbius - .28x (1.6m)

 - Last Duel - 3.66x (1.28m)

Comps average - 1.36m

All movies T-1 hr average: 1.71m

R-rated movies average: 1.67m

7pm movies average: 1.676m

 

Bad Guys T-1 hr comps

 - Sonic 2 - missed

 - Encanto - .52x (787k)

 - Peter Rabbit 2 - missed

 - Boss Baby 2 - .81x (1.066m)

Average - 926k

All movies T-1 hr average: 766k

5pm movies average: 723k

(The two above are my only PG AND my only animated movies with a T-1 hr update)

 

I reworked my sheet to make pulling comps much easier so I'm adding a few extra averages to see what works best.

[Joyous Legion]

Sheet beast becoming unleashed 😛 

[Eric is Quiet]

2 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Sheet beast becoming unleashed 😛 

Pause mah boi 😆

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Doctor Strange 2 Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1468

3886

37.78%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1102

3590

30.70%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
7158	169	40083	17.86%	15	281

 

AMCs sold	4296
Cinemarks sold	1193
Regals sold	942
Harkins sold	727

 

0.643x NWH T-15 (32.14M)

 

0.826x Batman Final (17.85M)

0.309x NWH Final (15.45M)

1.61x Eternals Final (15.27M)

1.77x Shang-Chi Final (15.61M)

1.13x Black Widow Final (14.85M)

Doctor Strange 2 Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1520

3886

39.11%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1106

3590

30.81%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
7284	126	39841	18.28%	15	279

 

AMCs sold	4371
Cinemarks sold	1222
Regals sold	946
Harkins sold	745

 

0.624x NWH T-14 (31.18M)

 

0.841x Batman Final (18.16M)

0.315x NWH Final (15.73M)

1.64x Eternals Final (15.54M)

1.81x Shang-Chi Final (15.89M)

1.14x Black Widow Final (15.11M)

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Doctor Strange 2 Megaplex

 

T-15 Thursday(190 showings): 7833(+226)/46994

0.484x NWH T-15 (24.20M)

 

0.730x Batman Final (15.78M)

0.239x NWH Final (11.94M)

 

T-16 Friday(280 showings): 4199(+146)/71633

0.395x NWH T-16 (28.41M)

 

0.383x Batman Final (13.42M)

0.136x NWH Final (9.77M)

 

T-17 Saturday(288 showings): 2340(+79)/71920

0.472x NWH T-17 (34.88M)

 

0.213x Batman Final (9.23M)

0.077x NWH Final (5.66M)

 

T-18 Sunday(265 showings): 557(+18)/67700

0.586x NWH T-18 (37.61M)

Doctor Strange 2 Megaplex

 

T-14 Thursday(191 showings): 7985(+152)/47158

0.479x NWH T-14 (23.97M)

 

0.745x Batman Final (16.08M)

0.244x NWH Final (12.18M)

 

T-15 Friday(282 showings): 4305(+106)/72008

0.375x NWH T-15 (26.99M)

 

0.393x Batman Final (13.76M)

0.139x NWH Final (10.02M)

 

T-16 Saturday(288 showings): 2443(+103)/71920

0.447x NWH T-16 (33.04M)

 

0.223x Batman Final (9.63M)

0.080x NWH Final (5.90M)

 

T-17 Sunday(265 showings): 586(+29)/67700

0.542x NWH T-17 (34.79M)