The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Tokugennumataka]

Don't wanna go too overboard, but mayyybe upto 240M OW is on the cards here. May OW looks like a done deal here. 

[Ryan Reynolds]

8 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:

Don't wanna go too overboard, but mayyybe upto 240M OW is on the cards here. May OW looks like a done deal here. 

seems like 20m too high, not feeling that type of hype unless inflation gets us here now

[Legion Again]

17 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

seems like 20m too high, not feeling that type of hype unless inflation gets us here now

240 nowadays would be similar to perhaps 160M when AoU came out? 180 generously. Not exactly S tier hype

[Porthos]

 

On 4/27/2022 at 11:44 PM, Porthos said:

 

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	353	30586	42676	12090	28.33%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

397

 

T-8 Comps - SOME COMPS BETTER THAN OTHERS EDITION

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NWH:	67.77		424	17839		0/311	20218/38057	46.87%		28183	42.90%		33.89m
Batsy:	251.82		168	4801		0/297	31989/36790	13.05%		11757	102.83%		54.39m

PRE-SALE NOTE: Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness tickets have been on sale for twelve more days than No Way Home's tickets had been on sale at this point in pre-sales, and eight more days than The Batman's main showings had been on sale.

 

 

Multiverse of Madness has sold...

	Final Sold	% of Final	Est Gross
BW:	9196	131.47%	18.17
SC:	5847	206.77%	18.20
LTBC:	7712	156.77%	18.19
ET:	6409	188.64%	17.92
NWH:	28183	42.90%	21.45
Batsy:	11757	102.83%	22.21

 

Regal:     2657/11027  [24.10% sold]
Matinee:    773/4632  [16.69% | 6.39% of all tickets sold]

 

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	353	30123	42680	12557	29.42%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

467

 

T-7 Comps - SOME COMPS BETTER THAN OTHERS EDITION

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NWH:	67.24		445	18674		0/325	20446/39120	47.74%		28183	44.56%		33.62m
Batsy:	242.32		206	5182		0/297	31608/36790	14.09%		11757	106.80%		52.34m

PRE-SALE NOTE: Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness tickets have been on sale for twelve more days than No Way Home's tickets had been on sale at this point in pre-sales, and eight more days than The Batman's main showings had been on sale.

 

Multiverse of Madness has sold...

	Final Sold	% of Final	Est Gross
BW:	9196	136.55%	18.87
SC:	5847	214.76%	18.90
LTBC:	7712	162.82%	18.89
ET:	6409	195.93%	18.61
NWH:	28183	44.56%	22.28
Batsy:	11757	106.80%	23.07

 

Regal:     2781/11027  [25.22% sold]
Matinee:    840/4632  [18.13% | 6.69% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

Jurassic World Dominion Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-42 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	158	21618	22333	715	3.20%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

715

 

Day 1 Comps

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9:	181.93		393	393		0/82	12755/13148	2.99%		4407	16.00%		13.53m
GBA:	359.30		199	199		0/104	15788/15987	1.24%		3034	23.57%		16.17m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Jurassic World Dominion's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMP***
JW3 = 1.00840x JW2 at the same sources of tracking at Day 1     [13.89m adj]
JW3 = 2.09418x KotM at the same sources of tracking at Day 1    [11.87m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 10% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2018/19 to 2022.

Regal:      101/5932  [1.70% sold]
Matinee:    21/1537  [1.37% | 2.94% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Not a bad day at all, all things considered.  Decided to punt all of the Marvel comps as they were either way too low (BW: 8.9m) or way too high (LTBC: 23.8m*). 

* Hush, @Brainbug the Dinosaur

 

But the rest of the comps look to be providing a good set of guideposts.  The major wild card being that this will have a little less then three more weeks of presales than most of these comps, so something to keep in mind.  All in all, a good start for something this far out that isn't gonna get the level of fan rush that either Marvel or SW is gonna get.

[charlie Jatinder]

Will have to wait for 2-3 days to see the trend of Dominion because of difference of longer pre-sales run from FK otherwise FK comp would have made it a lot easier. Just being barely over FK after 4 years is not a good look to have. More so a film like GB:A giving $13M comp ain't great either.

BUT... 2-3 days will make things more clearer.

[THUNDER BIRD]

It's a different of 20 days..... Anyways currently people have a different movie to book tickets off.

 

 

[Maggie]

Can anyone import the chart   https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-top-gun-maverick-and-bobs-burgers/

 

Anyway, they are pretty bullish on TG 2

[ImNotRacistAtAll]

Is TG2 really opening over 100M?

[Legion Again]

I’d give more than 50% that TG2 misses that range (going low) and DS2 misses that range (going high).

[Maggie]

The first Top Gun had a lot of repeat viewings, people saw it like 5-6 times. I doubt this one will manage that, but the old crowd could bring in their children.

Edited April 29, 2022 by Maggie

[charlie Jatinder]

52 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Can anyone import the chart   https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-top-gun-maverick-and-bobs-burgers/

 

Anyway, they are pretty bullish on TG 2

Man Top Gun 2 sales gonna be fun 

[Maggie]

Just now, charlie Jatinder said:

Man Top Gun 2 sales gonna be fun 

I predict a meltdown. These projections seem inflated

[charlie Jatinder]

Reading this reminded me of one film
 

Quote

The original 1986 film was a pop culture icon that helped define a generation of movie fans and cemented Tom Cruise’s growth into one of history’s most successful and enduring Hollywood.
 

Grossing nearly $177 million in its original domestic run, the film was the highest box office grosser of its year and would adjust to more than $475 million adjusting for today’s inflation rates and ticket prices.

Spoiler

Mary Poppins Returns

 

[european1992]

What are the chances that JWD opens higher than DS2?

[Maggie]

Just now, european1992 said:

What are the chances that JWD opens higher than DS2?

Slim imo.

[charlie Jatinder]

7 minutes ago, european1992 said:

What are the chances that JWD opens higher than DS2?

0%

[SupermanLego]

6 hours ago, Tokugennumataka said:

Don't wanna go too overboard, but mayyybe upto 240M OW is on the cards here. May OW looks like a done deal here. 

If DS2 makes 240m it just makes NWH look lame. Tbf imo the hype for DS2 is not on that level.

[XXR vs XXR]

6 hours ago, Illuminegion Confirmed said:

240 nowadays would be similar to perhaps 160M when AoU came out? 180 generously. Not exactly S tier hype

Whats the math on this, because that definitely doesn’t seem correct? I assume you mean OW comped against the record? Because on a ticket price basis, $240M today would be more sold than AoU OW and way more than $160M in 2015.

[Menor the Destroyer]

7 minutes ago, MultiverseXXR said:

Whats the math on this, because that definitely doesn’t seem correct? I assume you mean OW comped against the record? Because on a ticket price basis, $240M today would be more sold than AoU OW and way more than $160M in 2015.

Yeah I don't think just using ratio of the record works here, Endgame is just a stronger record holder than TA was.