The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

All movies that I took a T-1 hr run at. Most usually end up in the same range

I think that may skew things a bit high considering that the bigger movies (with the exception of SC) seem to be lower than that.

[Borf the Borf]

14 hours ago, Borf the Borf said:

This data prob isnt of much use to yall without a histories and comps but gotta start somewhere.   I am seeing a heavy skew with the IMAX showings vs vs Regular screenings.  Dont really know the implications but I with the 120 theatrical run  I think they are expecting people to waiting around for IMAX screenings/repeat viewings.  Any ways 5 Tampa area IMAX screenings numbers as of 3am Thursday T -- 12 hours.

Collected by hand, I will learn  selenium this week to automate some collection.  And if there is intrest I will update 2pm and right before Mid showing.  Handicaps and companions account for variance i was using HTML to ID aby "Can Reserve" and "Not available" and those seats categorized differently.  

Theater 5 is actually Sarasota, included because of older skewing demo, median age 50 vs national average of 38 years old

 

			Sold	Available	Total	% sold
		Early	92	269	361	25.5%
Theater 1		Mid	271	93	364	74.5%
		Late	55	308	363	15.2%
			418	670	1088	38.4%
			Sold	Available	Total	% sold
		Early	67	191	258	26.0%
Theater 2		Mid	119	140	259	45.9%
		Late	29	230	259	11.2%
			215	561	776	27.7%
			Sold	Available	Total	% sold
Theater 3		Early	138	71	209	66.0%
		Mid	185	22	207	89.4%
			323	93	416	77.6%
			Sold	Available	Total	% sold
		Early	140	213	353	39.7%
Theater 4		Mid	251	104	355	70.7%
		Late	25	316	341	7.3%
			416	633	1049	39.7%
			Sold	Available	Total	% sold
		Early	115	143	258	44.6%
Theater 5		Mid	154	105	259	59.5%
		Late	94	165	259	36.3%
			363	413	776
			5 Tamp Area IMAX		1 Screen no late screening
				Avaial	Sold	Tot Seats
			Early	887	552	1439
			Mid	464	980	1444
			Late	1019	203	1222
			Total	4105	1735	5840

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mid Day Showings Imax Tampa Area update from quoted post at 3am (~14 hours ago)

Edited May 26, 2022 by Borf the Borf

[Eric Lasagna]

 

I promise I'll be ready soon

[motionpic05]

Eeek... sounds like the Jurassic World Dominion embargo isn't until June 9th... a day before release!

Do we think this is because of spoilers or Universal not having faith in the movie? 

 

 

[Alex SciChannel]

1 minute ago, motionpic05 said:

Eeek... sounds like the Jurassic World Dominion embargo isn't until June 9th... a day before release!

Do we think this is because of spoilers or Universal not having faith in the movie? 

 

 

I've heard from some that have already seen it spoilers may actually be a big deal for this movie.

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

I've heard from some that have already seen it spoilers may actually be a big deal for this movie.

 

That sounds ... very intriguing.

[Eric Lasagna]

18 hours ago, Eric Belcher said:

The Bob's Burgers Movie Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	47	420	5425	7.74%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 85

 

Comp

0.384x of The Suicide Squad T-1 (1.57M)

1.382x of Free Guy T-1 (3.04M)

0.929x of Jackass Forever T-1 (1.53M)

1.527x of Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent T-1 (1.27M)

The Bob's Burgers Movie Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	47	576	5425	10.62%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 156

 

Comp

0.283x of The Suicide Squad (1.16M)

0.823x of Free Guy (1.81M)

0.826x of Jackass Forever (1.36M)

1.385x of Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent (1.16M)

[keysersoze123]

Pointless if its opening in many markets next weekend. You cannot have NDA after a movie is released !!!! This will apply only to US reviewers. We will still see reviews from the markets opened. if they really want to keep it tight they should have gone day and date in all markets. 

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

Pointless if its opening in many markets next weekend. You cannot have NDA after a movie is released !!!! This will apply only to US reviewers. We will still see reviews from the markets opened. if they really want to keep it tight they should have gone day and date in all markets. 

 

Side effect from this will also be that we will hopefully get some audience responses from the markets where it is relasing earlier so we could have a better picture regarding its potential.

[Eric Lasagna]

18 hours ago, Eric Belcher said:

Top Gun: Maverick Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	192	4135	37417	11.05%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 536

 

Comp

1.637x of F9 T-1 (11.62M)

1.794x of No Time to Die T-1 (11.31M)

2.349x of Dune T-1 (11.98M)

2.583x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-1 (11.62M)

2.405x of Fantastic Beasts 3 T-1 (14.43M)

 

Yeah, this matched yesterday. I would say it's a bad sign, but Philly seems way down compared to other markets, and I feel confident my sales today were a fluke. Still very, very weird however.

Top Gun: Maverick Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	192	5142	37417	13.74%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 1,007

 

Comp

1.134x of F9 (8.05M)

1.767x of No Time to Die (11.13M)

2.200x of Dune (11.22M)

2.318x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife (10.43M)

2.182x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (13.09M)

 

So...I know my numbers are way lower compared to most...but is this another case of Mickey's Law? Because it's starting to feel like Mickey's Law again.

[Maggie]

5 minutes ago, Eric Belcher said:

Top Gun: Maverick Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	192	5142	37417	13.74%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 1,007

 

Comp

1.134x of F9 (8.05M)

1.767x of No Time to Die (11.13M)

2.200x of Dune (11.22M)

2.318x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife (10.43M)

2.182x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (13.09M)

 

So...I know my numbers are way lower compared to most...but is this another case of Mickey's Law? Because it's starting to feel like Mickey's Law again.

Damn, that's low. I guess you're right.... Mickey's Law strikes again

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, Eric Belcher said:

So...I know my numbers are way lower compared to most...but is this another case of Mickey's Law? Because it's starting to feel like Mickey's Law again.

 

 

Spoiler

 

 

Spoiler

 

[ZackM]

 

First Maverick update:

 

Green is final.  Yellow is not final, but updated within the last hour.

 

Has added about 32k sales since my final presales run 5 or 6 hours ago.

 

 

Alpha - Top Gun: Maverick - Eastern Time Zone					Alpha - Top Gun: Maverick - Central Time Zone
Showtimes	Sales	DS: MoM Comp	Batman Comp		Showtimes	Sales	DS: MoM Comp	Batman Comp
3:00-3:59	15,177	40.1%	68.0%		3:00-3:59	10,478	50.0%	88.2%
4:00-4:59	6,266	25.5%	71.0%		4:00-4:59	6,052	45.8%	157.6%
5:00-5:59	3,383	19.7%	45.5%		5:00-5:59	2,714	25.9%	60.4%
6:00-6:59	17,298	39.2%	120.1%		6:00-6:59	10,504	39.7%	114.5%
7:00-7:59	18,383	38.4%	47.7%		7:00-7:59	13,535	44.6%	56.0%
8:00-8:59	5,185	16.7%	21.9%		8:00-8:59	3,971	21.8%	35.6%
9:00-9:59	6,898	16.9%	55.0%		9:00-9:59	3,891	18.2%	58.6%
10:00-10:59	4,406	14.5%	49.5%		10:00-10:59	2,218	12.8%	47.8%
11:00-11:59	311	3.8%	3.0%		11:00-11:59	113	3.0%	1.9%
12:00+	74	1.5%	6.5%		12:00+	0	0.0%	0.0%
Alpha - Top Gun: Maverick - Mountain Time Zone					Alpha - Top Gun: Maverick - Pacific Time Zone
Showtimes	Sales	DS: MoM Comp	Batman Comp		Showtimes	Sales	DS: MoM Comp	Batman Comp
3:00-3:59	4,163	72.8%	123.2%		3:00-3:59	7,778	38.8%	61.2%
4:00-4:59	1,512	44.3%	168.9%		4:00-4:59	4,448	37.4%	84.7%
5:00-5:59	835	31.7%	70.4%		5:00-5:59	1,747	16.9%	45.4%
6:00-6:59	3,578	50.0%	158.2%		6:00-6:59	7,697	33.8%	91.6%
7:00-7:59	3,857	55.6%	62.5%		7:00-7:59	8,319	35.6%	42.7%
8:00-8:59	1,046	26.5%	38.3%		8:00-8:59	2,919	17.8%	25.9%
9:00-9:59	1,142	21.1%	71.8%		9:00-9:59	4,071	19.7%	54.3%
10:00-10:59	628	14.6%	65.1%		10:00-10:59	2,857	15.9%	52.1%
11:00-11:59	66	9.4%	3.8%		11:00-11:59	422	5.8%	5.5%
12:00+	0	0.0%	-		12:00+	88	1.3%	5.4%

 

[Legion Again]

NTTD holding steady. Who needs fan frontloading when you have olds frontloading?   
 

In all seriousness even 4.5->13->28 true fri would be a big ole weekend, I don’t really see a fail case here.

[Ryan Reynolds]

So are 15m previews happening? 

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Top Gun: Maverick Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [11:30am - 12:30pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	2	345	32649	43012	10363	24.09%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Last Night

707

 

T-0 [Mid-Day] Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-0 [Mid-Day]	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Bats [11:30-12:35]	98.90		939	10478		1/327	28376/38854	26.97%		11757	88.14%		21.36m
BW [12:00-12:55]	132.27		891	7835		0/258	24466/32301	24.26%		9196	112.69%		18.28m
NTTD [12:00-12:35]	335.48		303	3089		0/178	21629/24718	12.50%		3737	277.31%		20.80m
Dune [12:12:20]	433.42		284	2391		0/109	12402/14793	16.16%		2915	355.51%		22.10m
NWH [11:30-12:40]	39.22		1358	26425		0/386	16423/42848	61.67%		28183	36.77%		19.61m
MoM [11:30-12:40]	53.25		1194	19461		0/409	27068/46529	41.83%		21117	49.07%		19.17m
FB3 [11:45-12:30]	285.25		601	3633		0/207	24155/27788	13.07%		4456	232.56%		17.11m

FNAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Top Gun: Maverick's current tickets sold versus that final number.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

T-0 [Mid-Day] Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-0 [Mid-Day]	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9 [12:00-12:45]	285.63		491	3390		0/170	17331/20721	16.36%		4407	235.15%		21.24m
TG:M (adj)	---		624	9683		2/322	31005/40688	23.80%		---	---		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  TG:M (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

Tuesday Sales:      2230/2477   [90.03% sold] [FINAL]
Thursday Sales:    8133/40535 [20.06% sold] [+707 tickets]
    
Regal:     1460/10415  [14.02% sold]
Matinee:    659/4515  [14.60% | 6.36% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Solid start, but nothing explody yet.  Comps are all over the place, but that's because I'm using a disparate set of comps of different genres and under-/over-performers given how unique TG:M's run is locally. Be interesting to see if any of them actually come close to the real number.

 

Top Gun: Maverick Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [3:30pm - 4:45pm]

NOTE: All showtimes before 3:30pm were sampled at the start of that showtime.

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	2	345	31538	43012	11474	26.68%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day

1111

 

T-0 Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Bats [3:00-4:30]	97.59		1279	11757		1/328	27144/38901	30.22%		11757	97.59%		21.08m
BW [4:20-5:20]	124.77		1361	9196		0/260	23235/32431	28.36%		9196	124.77%		17.25m
NTTD [3:50-4:25]	307.04		648	3737		0/178	20981/24718	15.12%		3737	307.04%		19.04m
Dune [5:10-5:30]	393.62		524	2915		0/109	11878/14793	19.71%		2915	393.62%		20.07m
NWH [3:00-4:30]	40.71		1758	28183		4/395	15229/43412	64.92%		28183	40.71%		20.36m
MoM [3:30-4:35]	54.34		1656	21117		0/409	25412/46529	45.38%		21117	54.34%		19.56m
FB3 [3:50-4:25]	257.50		823	4456		0/207	23332/27788	16.04%		4456	257.50%		15.45m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Top Gun: Maverick's current tickets sold versus that final number.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

T-0 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9 [5:30-6:10]	242.64		1017	4407		0/161	15341/19748	22.32%		4407	260.36%		18.04m
TG:M (adj)	---		918	10693		2/322	29995/40688	26.28%		---	---		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  TG:M (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

Tuesday Sales:      2230/2477   [90.03% sold] [FINAL]
Thursday Sales:    9244/40535 [22.80% sold] [+1111 tickets]
    
Regal:      1711/10415  [16.43% sold]
Matinee:    828/4515  [18.34% | 7.22% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Want a particular number for previews?  Then choose your own adventure, coz I gots a comp for you!  I think that FB3 comp is too pessimistic (damn, that really did over-perform locally), while The Batman one is too optimistic (it under-performed here, as one might recall).

 

If I throw them all in a blender, I get 18.85m.  If I average it out and toss out the high/low numbers I get 19.05m.  Good enough for me, so let's say 18.75m-19.25m.

 

(If Sacto really is over-performing like we think, then 17.5m +/-, but really hard to say.  Not trying to have it both ways here, just noting what everyone else has and said that this did very well here.)

 

ONE ***MAJOR*** THING TO NOTE:

 

The PLF skew was in-sane.  Motherbleeper actually beat Dune's PLF skew!!! (TGM: 55.58% | Dune: 54.96%)

 

Given this has a shit-ton more showtimes than dune did, that's insane.  Add in the ticket price hike from most of my 2021 comps, and it could be that even if Sacto is over-performing, it might be close thanks to factors cancelling themselves out.

 

Anyway, the "call", such as it is is 18.75-19.25.  But if it's less, I'll just chalk it up to it waaaaay over-performing here.

Edited May 26, 2022 by Porthos
Forgot to update the final sample times for comped movies

[DAJK]

Eh... I’m starting to sense some Mikey Law coming into play.

 

9M previews. 23M true Friday.

[Borf the Borf]

5 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Eh... I’m starting to sense some Mikey Law coming into play.

 

9M previews. 23M true Friday.

Whats MIkey Law?  I have tried googling no luck

[Starphanluke]

2 minutes ago, Borf the Borf said:

Whats MIkey Law?  I have tried googling no luck

Basically, anything that can go wrong will go wrong... unless you're Disney

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, Borf the Borf said:

Whats MIkey Law?  I have tried googling no luck

 

It's a meme on this board that basically says that all non-Disney films are cursed to under-perform.  Not that Disney films will automatically do well... just that non-Disney films will always break your heart at the box office.

Edited May 26, 2022 by Porthos