The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[ZackM]

 

Jurassic World: Dominion Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 days
	Last Day	Previous 2 Days		4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	6		0	0
Seats Added	0	411		0	0
Seats Sold	1,769	4,332		1,482	1,632
5/28/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	428	4,275	65,655	758,598	8.65%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	1	9	30	69
ATP
$17.91

[katnisscinnaplex]

37 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

sorry to bother if you've already mentioned but how many theaters is Neon taking Crimes of the Future this weekend @EmpireCity It doesn't seem like 3rd limited, wide 10th is plan anymore? If it's over 500 and 1k or more, 1million should happen.

I think over 500 is a safe bet.  I'm already seeing close to 400 for the 3rd

[keysersoze123]

29 minutes ago, ZackM said:

 

Jurassic World: Dominion Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 days
	Last Day	Previous 2 Days		4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	6		0	0
Seats Added	0	411		0	0
Seats Sold	1,769	4,332		1,482	1,632
5/28/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	428	4,275	65,655	758,598	8.65%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	1	9	30	69
ATP
$17.91

It had some boost thu/fri and then went down again over the weekend. Let us see how things go post the long weekend. 

[EmpireCity]

1 hour ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

sorry to bother if you've already mentioned but how many theaters is Neon taking Crimes of the Future this weekend @EmpireCity It doesn't seem like 3rd limited, wide 10th is plan anymore? If it's over 500 and 1k or more, 1million should happen.

 

Not sure, but it doesn't matter.  The film has zero commercial appeal.  

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

52 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Not sure, but it doesn't matter.  The film has zero commercial appeal.  

Yeah I know wasn't expecting much commercially except for like 1m but I was still curious because its Cronenberg

[El Squibbonator]

$200 million for a biopic? 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Elvis didn't cost 200million. Anne Thompson from Indiewire said its about 150 total for Warner Bros (which is including marketing budget) so probably about 100million budget (which was likely inflated with COVID production issues)

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Jurassic World Dominion Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	191	22665	25372	2707	10.67%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

112

 

T-13 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
SC	254.42		97	1064		0/101	15938/17002	6.26%		5847	46.30%		22.39m
NTTD	347.05		57	780		0/135	20479/21259	3.67%		3737	72.44%		21.52m
Dune	419.04		34	646		0/75	11185/11831	5.46%		2915	92.86%		21.37m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Jurassic World: Dominon's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-13 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	262.46		48	983		0/79	11432/12415	7.92%		4407	58.54%		19.51m
BW	100.62		77	2564		0/117	16570/19134	13.40%		9196	29.44%		13.91m
JWD (adj)	---		104	2580		0/169	20054/22634	11.40%		---	---		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  JWD (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in BW's track.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***

JW3 = 1.5165x JW2 at the same sources of tracking on Day 13 [20.88m adj]
JW3 = 3.38681x KotM at the same sources of tracking on Day 13 [19.2m adj]
JW3 = 0.97225x TLK at the same sources of tracking on Day 13 [20.13m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 10% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2018/19 to 2022.

 

Regal:       396/6145  [6.44% sold]
Matinee:    158/1535  [10.29% | 5.84% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Not nearly as nutty as yesterday, but a cromulent day nonetheless. 

 

Added NTTD and Dune comps and even threw in SC when I saw it wasn't completely terrible.  They might be a little on the high side (esp SC) thanks to the disparity in pre-sale window, but... Not completely terrible.  Be interesting to see how they move over the next week at least.

 

No, none of the comps are actually that good.  But not sure there is a good comp for this film given all the factors at play.  At least at this point in pre-sales.

 

Jurassic World Dominion Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 and counting

 

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	191	22562	25374	2812	11.08%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

105

 

T-12 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
SC	244.73		85	1149		0/101	15853/17002	6.76%		5847	48.09%		21.54m
NTTD	346.31		32	812		0/135	20447/21259	3.82%		3737	75.25%		21.47m
Dune	401.14		55	701		0/75	11130/11831	5.93%		2915	96.47%		20.46m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Jurassic World: Dominon's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-12 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	262.19		38	1021		0/79	11394/12415	8.22%		4407	60.74%		19.49m
BW	100.71		94	2658		0/119	16602/19260	13.80%		9196	30.58%		13.92m
JWD (adj)	---		97	2677		0/169	19959/22636	11.83%		---	---		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  JWD (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in BW's track.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***

JW3 = 1.52614x JW2 at the same sources of tracking on Day 12 [21.02m adj]
JW3 = 3.26639x KotM at the same sources of tracking on Day 12 [18.52m adj]
JW3 = 0.95951x TLK at the same sources of tracking on Day 12 [19.86m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 10% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2018/19 to 2022.

 

Regal:       410/6145  [6.67% sold]
Matinee:    161/1535  [10.49% | 5.73% of all tickets sold]

[Borf the Borf]

Teaching my self python and various data scraping, organizing etc.  Any recommendations for a grouping of theaters I can tackle to and start to contribute here that maybe isnt or is under covered? 

[katnisscinnaplex]

21 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Top Gun 2 (Sat)	PLF	50	5,104	5,104	11,778	43.34%	$15.09	$76,997.32
		Standard	138	3,848	3,848	18,608	20.68%	$10.87	$41,830.66
	Total		188	8,952	8,952	30,386	29.46%	$13.27	$118,827.98

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Top Gun 2 (Sat)	N	91	4,046	4,046	14,910	27.14%	$15.56	$62,943.13
		Y	97	4,906	4,906	15,476	31.70%	$11.39	$55,884.85
	Total		188	8,952	8,952	30,386	29.46%	$13.27	$118,827.98

 

 Unadjusted T-0 comps

 - No Way Home Sat - .422x (31.21m)

 - Batman Sat - .858x (33.85m)

 - DS2 Sat - .53x (28.96m)

 

Adjusted by Thursday multipliers

 - NWH - 30.68m

 - Batman - 33m

 - DS2 - 32.7m

 

Adjusted by Friday multipliers

 - NWH - 35.64m

 - Batman - 35.7m

 - DS2 - 36.67m

 

Expecting this to come in on the higher end.  Here are the pure comp thu/fri/sat for each movie

 

NWH - 12.87/27.98/31.2

Batman - 13.94/30.03/33.85

DS2 - 11.6/28.98/28.96

 

Top Gun 2 - 14.7/32.5/X

 

I'll go with 37m for my Saturday prediction

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Top Gun 2 (Sun)	PLF	51	4,675	4,675	11,973	39.05%	$14.99	$70,084.50
		Standard	139	3,596	3,596	18,733	19.20%	$10.72	$38,551.46
	Total		190	8,271	8,271	30,706	26.94%	$13.13	$108,635.96

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Top Gun 2 (Sun)	N	91	3,370	3,370	14,925	22.58%	$15.70	$52,912.72
		Y	99	4,901	4,901	15,781	31.06%	$11.37	$55,723.24
	Total		190	8,271	8,271	30,706	26.94%	$13.13	$108,635.96

 

 Unadjusted T-0 comps

 - No Way Home Sun - .411x (26.417m)

 - Batman Sun - .83x (28.34m)

 - DS2 Sun - .74x (28.73m)

 - Top Gun 2 Sat - .924x (34.65m)

 

Adjusted by Friday multipliers

 - NWH - 25.97m

 - Batman - 27.62m

 - DS2 - 32.46m

 

Adjusted by Saturday multipliers

 - NWH - 31.74m

 - Batman - 31.39m

 - DS2 - 37.21m

 

Expecting this to come in on the higher end.  Here are the pure comp thu/fri/sat/sun for each movie

 

NWH - 12.87/27.98/31.2/26.42

Batman - 13.94/30.03/33.85/28.34

DS2 - 11.6/28.98/28.96/28.73

 

Top Gun 2 - 14.7/32.5/37.5/???

 

Looks like Saturday will come close to the 37m prediction, which was formulated by taking the Friday presale mult adjustments and increasing for less frontloaded presales.  If I do the same here and base off the Saturday adjustments, that gives me something in the 33m range for Sunday.

[Alex SciChannel]

1 hour ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Top Gun 2 (Sun)	PLF	51	4,675	4,675	11,973	39.05%	$14.99	$70,084.50
		Standard	139	3,596	3,596	18,733	19.20%	$10.72	$38,551.46
	Total		190	8,271	8,271	30,706	26.94%	$13.13	$108,635.96

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Top Gun 2 (Sun)	N	91	3,370	3,370	14,925	22.58%	$15.70	$52,912.72
		Y	99	4,901	4,901	15,781	31.06%	$11.37	$55,723.24
	Total		190	8,271	8,271	30,706	26.94%	$13.13	$108,635.96

 

 Unadjusted T-0 comps

 - No Way Home Sun - .411x (26.417m)

 - Batman Sun - .83x (28.34m)

 - DS2 Sun - .74x (28.73m)

 - Top Gun 2 Sat - .924x (34.65m)

 

Adjusted by Friday multipliers

 - NWH - 25.97m

 - Batman - 27.62m

 - DS2 - 32.46m

 

Adjusted by Saturday multipliers

 - NWH - 31.74m

 - Batman - 31.39m

 - DS2 - 37.21m

 

Expecting this to come in on the higher end.  Here are the pure comp thu/fri/sat/sun for each movie

 

NWH - 12.87/27.98/31.2/26.42

Batman - 13.94/30.03/33.85/28.34

DS2 - 11.6/28.98/28.96/28.73

 

Top Gun 2 - 14.7/32.5/37.5/???

 

Looks like Saturday will come close to the 37m prediction, which was formulated by taking the Friday presale mult adjustments and increasing for less frontloaded presales.  If I do the same here and base off the Saturday adjustments, that gives me something in the 33m range for Sunday.

Curious. This is a higher Sunday drop than I expected? Can WOM propel it to something less than 10% from Saturday?

Edited May 29, 2022 by Alex SciChannel

[Eric is Quiet]

On 5/27/2022 at 11:10 PM, Eric Belcher said:

Jurassic World: Dominion Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	134	1748	23705	7.37%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 72

 

Comp

2.227x of F9 T-13 (15.81M)

2.590x of Venom 2 T-13 (30.04M)

Jurassic World: Dominion Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-12 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	134	1834	23705	7.74%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 86

 

Comp

2.168x of F9 T-12 (15.39M)

2.594x of Venom 2 T-12 (30.09M)

2.916x of No Time to Die T-12 (18.37M)

1.184x of Top Gun 2 T-12 (22.8M)

[filmlover]

Looks like Elvis is having early screenings at AMC June 21.

 

Elvis Early Access Fan Event at an AMC Theatre near you. (amctheatres.com)

[keysersoze123]

9 hours ago, Borf the Borf said:

Teaching my self python and various data scraping, organizing etc.  Any recommendations for a grouping of theaters I can tackle to and start to contribute here that maybe isnt or is under covered? 

first get it to work for some site. May be start with Cinemark which is broken for now :-) Or may be Marcus. 

[Borf the Borf]

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

first get it to work for some site. May be start with Cinemark which is broken for now 🙂 Or may be Marcus. 

I am sure nothing is broken unless its not reporting data properly.

 

But where to target? 

Edit :  I guess I am asking is there an area that would add unique data for yall, like for example i dont know most of the tracking nick names and what htey actually represent here.  So i dont want waste time collecting info that is already being collected.  

Maybe i can come up with something new Like a side by side comparison of 5 5 of the top 10 oldest per captia vs youngest per capita metropolitan areas .  

Edited May 30, 2022 by Borf the Borf

[ZackM]

 

Jurassic World: Dominion Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-11 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	Previous 2 Days		5 Days Ago
Showings Added	1	0	6		0
Seats Added	391	0	411		0
Seats Sold	2,322	1,769	4,332		1,482
5/29/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	428	4,276	67,977	758,989	8.96%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	1	10	31	74
ATP
$17.87

[Joyous Legion]

11 hours ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Curious. This is a higher Sunday drop than I expected? Can WOM propel it to something less than 10% from Saturday?

The fact that it’s not a schoolnight could help sun PSm/sat PSm relative to all comps… though you can also spin a story where it should hurt that ratio (more evening ps). I would guess 34.5 from a combination of Ps and other factors but we should get an initial update soon enough.

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 hours ago, Borf the Borf said:

I am sure nothing is broken unless its not reporting data properly.

 

But where to target? 

Edit :  I guess I am asking is there an area that would add unique data for yall, like for example i dont know most of the tracking nick names and what htey actually represent here.  So i dont want waste time collecting info that is already being collected.  

Maybe i can come up with something new Like a side by side comparison of 5 5 of the top 10 oldest per captia vs youngest per capita metropolitan areas .  

 @charlie Jatinder has good chain wise breakdowns of what our biggest missing pieces in particular are, so maybe PM him. Cinemark is indeed broken, Regal we have never had, but those are hard (may not be good starting points). There are some smaller chains that may be more amenable, like Marcus. 

Edited May 30, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[ZackM]

22 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

 @charlie Jatinder has good chain wise breakdowns of what our biggest missing pieces in particular are, so maybe PM him. Cinemark is indeed broken, Regal we have never had, but those are hard (may not be good starting points). There are some smaller chains that may be more amenable, like Marcus. 

I looked at Marcus today, it should be pretty easy.

[Eric is Quiet]

13 hours ago, Eric Belcher said:

Jurassic World: Dominion Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-12 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	134	1834	23705	7.74%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 86

 

Comp

2.168x of F9 T-12 (15.39M)

2.594x of Venom 2 T-12 (30.09M)

2.916x of No Time to Die T-12 (18.37M)

1.184x of Top Gun 2 T-12 (22.8M)

Jurassic World: Dominion Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-11 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	134	1854	23705	7.82%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 20

 

Comp

2.143x of F9 T-11 (15.22M)

2.389x of Venom 2 T-11 (27.71M)

2.792x of No Time to Die T-11 (17.59M)

1.130x of Top Gun 2 T-11 (21.76M)

 

Yeah I dunno what happened here lol