The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Gokira2012]

Japan wants to move away from 2d into 3d because that's where the money is, but they don't have Pixar money, so they will continue to make 2d movies

[charlie Jatinder]

5 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

At 6PM in Harkins

 

Dragon Ball - 7399/42101 (156 showings) $83,934

Beast - 862/22808 (93 showings) $8,798

 

Around ~9K final for Dragon Ball, which shall normally means $5.5M but I suppose Dragon Ball may be over-indexing here and by A LOT. The lowest I can go is may be $4M but none of other regions is that high, just $3.25M seems peak. I guess $3.5M may be doable here.

 

Beast may be 1.2-1.3k final. Normally $725-775K, but seems like under-indexing here. Crawdads & Nope comp give $800-850K, so probably around that.

Harkins THU Previews

 

Dragon Ball Super - 8947/42101 (156 showings) $101,768

Beast - 1488/22808 (93 showings) $15,820

 

DBS around $3.5M may be. Beast should comfortably be around $0.9-1M.

[AJG]

6 hours ago, ringedmortality said:

Beasts starts off with a 53% verified RT score

 

Up to 67%. It's the comeback story of the season (at least when it comes to RT Verified Scores).

Edited August 19, 2022 by AJG

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 8/12/2022 at 8:26 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX
Bullet Train	3,432	56,805	-29.50%	50,126	317.04	6,679	1,232
Super-Pets	3,147	40,263	-21.51%	40,056	215.47	207	0
Top Gun 2	2,663	33,153	17.24%	30,515	247.76	2,638	470
Minions 2	2,652	32,774	-11.68%	32,542	191.58	232	0
Easter Sunday	2,842	32,359	-23.88%	32,302	109.33	57	0
Thor 4	2,661	31,564	-10.16%	31,423	219.34	141	0
Nope	2,483	28,896	-18.58%	28,846	239.51	50	0
Crawdads	2,453	27,073	-9.11%	27,022	190.52	51	0
Mack & Rita	1,686	24,728		24,681		47	0
Fall	1,398	21,684		20,501		1,183	0
Bodies Bodies	1,179	19,639		19,633		6	0
Elvis	1,817	14,948	-11.62%	14,923	232.99	25	0
The Black Phone	842	6,929	-24.86%	6,929	163.32	0	0
Emliy the Criminal	454	6,665		6,665		0	0
Laal Singh Chaddha	450	4,811		4,712		99	0
Jurassic World 3	644	4,657	-33.89%	4,637	169.39	20	0
Summering	258	3,861		3,861		0	0
Mrs. Harris	504	3,706	-11.82%	3,703	138.03	3	0
Vengeance	402	3,164	-64.72%	3,164	80.91	0	0
E.T.	360	2,554		0		2,554	2,554
Marcel the Shell	195	1,213	-55.57%	1,213	126.55	0	0

 

US Showtime Sample for 8/12/22 Weekend

 

OW shows comps

Bodies Bodies Bodies - 19,639 (1,179 TC) (calling this OW despite expansion)

Fall - 21,684 (1,398 TC)

Mack & Rita - 24,728 (1,686 TC)

 

All pretty similar range.  Here are some other openers within the range:

 - Journal for Jordan - 19,572 (2,055)

 - The Cursed - 20,717 (1,609)

 - Infinite Storm - 19,579 (1,481)

 - Nightmare Alley - 24,922 (1,911)

 - King's Daughter - 26,174 (1,987)

 

T-1 Week

Dragon Ball Super - 47,052 (2,460 TC) (8,941 PLF)

 - Uncharted - 50,667 (2,672) (11,420 PLF)

 - Dune - 45,388 (2,771) (7,798 IMAX)

 

Beast - 31,538 (2,106 TC) (3,420 PLF)

 - Halloween Kills - 32,962 (2,343)

 - Moonfall - 33,048 (2,259)

 - Black Phone - 30,912 (2,156)

 - Crawdads - 29,677 (2,121)

 

T-2 Weeks Previews

Three Thousand Years of Longing - 1,576 (692 TC)

 - Family Camp - 1,549 (532)

 - West Side Story - 1,507 (613)

The Invitation - 231 (101 TC)

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Beast	3,225	57,591		52,302		5,289	0	0
Bullet Train	3,087	36,451	-35.83%	35,961	235.98	490	229	0
Super-Pets	2,964	33,256	-17.40%	33,180	173.94	76	0	0
Dragon Ball Super	2,856	62,110		52,371		9,739	4,393	0
Top Gun 2	2,576	28,056	-15.37%	27,646	212.74	410	247	0
Bodies Bodies Bodies	2,363	29,586	69.88%	29,528	159.31	58	0	0
Thor 4	2,324	26,419	-16.30%	26,334	170.38	85	0	40
Minions 2	2,299	25,621	-21.83%	25,502	152.63	119	0	79
Crawdads	2,187	22,464	-17.02%	22,417	147.81	47	0	0
Nope	2,106	22,116	-23.46%	22,086	185.70	30	0	0
Fall	1,399	15,554	-18.44%	15,512	115.85	42	0	0
Elvis	1,381	10,252	-31.42%	10,228	172.77	24	0	0
Easter Sunday	1,247	8,037	-75.16%	8,034	74.41	3	0	0
Mack & Rita	1,011	6,545	-68.36%	6,526	41.99	19	0	0
The Black Phone	573	4,088	-41.00%	4,088	147.52	0	0	0
Emliy the Criminal	462	3,712	-38.88%	3,712	100.40	0	0	0
Laal Singh Chaddha	443	3,079	-36.00%	3,071	309.07	8	0	0
Jurassic World 3	431	2,598	-44.21%	2,596	142.27	2	0	2
Mrs. Harris	275	1,787	-51.78%	1,784	91.09	3	0	0

 

US Showtime Sample for 8/19/22 Weekend

 

OW shows comps

Dragon Ball Super - 62,110 (2,856 TC) (9,739 PLF)

 - Snake Eyes - 64,832 (3,008) (4,214 IMAX)

 - Moonfall - 64,611 (3,241) (9,143 PLF)

 

Beast - 57,591 (3,225 TC) (5,289 PLF)

 - Old - 56,613 (2,958)

 - Death on the Nile - 56,756 (2,935) (8,915 PLF)

 - Black Phone - 59,993 (2,800) (495 PLF)

 

T-1 Week

Three Thousand Years of Longing - 21,989 (1,690 TC)

 - Dear Evan Hansen - 22,666 (2,163)

 - Massive Talent - 21,853 (1,815)

The Invitation - 21,624 (1,619 TC)

 - Blacklight - 19,740 (1,627)

 - The Northman - 22,383 (1,935)

 - Last Night in Soho - 20,306 (1,787)

Breaking - 6,778 (515 TC)

 - Umma - 6,971 (506)

[Eric Prime]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-the-woman-king/

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 8/18/22)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Estimated Location Count	Distributor
8/26/2022	The Invitation	$7,000,000 – $12,000,000	-14%	$17,000,000 – $32,000,000	-16%	3,000	Sony Pictures / Columbia
8/26/2022	Fear						Hidden Empire Film Group (HEFG)
8/26/2022	Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (IMAX Re-Release)	$500,000 – $1,000,000	NEW	$750,000 – $1,500,000	NEW	150	Disney / Lucasfilm
8/26/2022	Three Thousand Years of Longing					2,500	United Artists Releasing & MGM
9/2/2022	Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.						Focus Features
9/2/2022	Jaws (IMAX and RealD 3D Re-Release)						Universal Pictures
9/2/2022	Spider-Man: No Way Home – The More Fun Stuff Version						Sony Pictures / Columbia / Marvel Studios
9/9/2022	Barbarian	$9,000,000 – $14,000,000		$22,000,000 – $37,000,000			20th Century Studios
9/9/2022	Brahmastra Part 1: Shiva						Disney / Fox Star
9/16/2022	God’s Country						IFC Films
9/16/2022	Running the Bases						UP2U Films
9/16/2022	See How They Run						Searchlight Pictures
9/16/2022	The Silent Twins						Focus Features
9/16/2022	The Woman King	$16,000,000 – $21,000,000		$42,000,000 – $67,000,000			Sony / TriStar Pictures

[poweranimals]

Sony's been pretty silent on the NWH more fun stuff version. Weren't tickets supposed to have gone on sale already?

[filmlover]

I could see The Woman King hitting the high end of that projection if it gets good reviews tbh. It looks very entertaining, and aimed at demographics who are still mostly underserved by the industry.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 8/18/2022 at 8:04 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Beast	PLF	9	16	41	1,746	2.35%	$15.43	$632.63
		Standard	21	22	38	2,430	1.56%	$11.69	$444.30
	Total		30	38	79	4,176	1.89%	$13.63	$1,076.93
T-0	Dragon Ball	PLF	27	187	1,380	6,811	20.26%	$15.37	$21,214.36
		Standard	52	197	902	7,220	12.49%	$13.65	$12,315.64
	Total		79	384	2,282	14,031	16.26%	$14.69	$33,530.00
T-1	Beast (Fri)	PLF	20	38	59	4,115	1.43%	$14.24	$840.17
		Standard	35	25	62	4,013	1.54%	$10.71	$664.25
	Total		55	63	121	8,128	1.49%	$12.43	$1,504.42
T-1	Dragon Ball (Fri)	PLF	44	147	952	10,740	8.86%	$14.88	$14,161.94
		Standard	83	88	429	12,158	3.53%	$13.73	$5,891.51
	Total		127	235	1,381	22,898	6.03%	$14.52	$20,053.45

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Beast (Fri)	N	25	37	87	3,547	2.45%	$13.50	$1,174.47
		Y	30	26	34	4,581	0.74%	$9.70	$329.95
	Total		55	63	121	8,128	1.49%	$12.43	$1,504.42
T-1	Dragon Ball (Fri)	N	116	229	1,341	21,494	6.24%	$14.60	$19,573.00
		Y	11*	6	40	1,404	2.85%	$12.01	$480.45
	Total		127	235	1,381	22,898	6.03%	$14.52	$20,053.45

*Most of the early DBS shows are still using event pricing so I'm not marking them as matinee.

 

Beast T-0 comps

 - Massive Talent - .952x (795k)

 - Firestarter - 2.93x (1.1m)

*Take any comps with a grain of salt - sales are so low even a single ticket will change the comp a very large amount.  

 

I guess I'll stick with 800k previews.  Not much to go on here with very minimal sales.

 

*I don't have any anime comps yet, so this is just for future use.  CBM comps are between 5.1m and 6.2m, but I don't expect this to have nearly the same presales to walkups multiplier.  Friday sales look pretty good, but those same comps point to only a small increase from previews.

 

I took a look at the CBM comps in my regionals... Batman - 3.6m, NWH - 2.96m and DS2 - 3.19m.  Makes me think that previews could get to 3.5m or even higher.  Or maybe Santikos is very anime friendly.  Don't really know at this point, but this should be a helpful comp going forward.

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Beast (Fri)	PLF	21	124	183	4,165	4.39%	$14.01	$2,564.08
		Standard	35	134	196	4,013	4.88%	$10.77	$2,111.79
	Total		56	258	379	8,178	4.63%	$12.34	$4,675.87
T-0	Dragon Ball (Fri)	PLF	44	319	1,271	10,740	11.83%	$14.86	$18,881.48
		Standard	83	259	688	12,158	5.66%	$13.64	$9,384.34
	Total		127	578	1,959	22,898	8.56%	$14.43	$28,265.82
T-1	Beast (Sat)	PLF	20	78	78	4,115	1.90%	$13.18	$1,028.29
		Standard	34	77	77	3,834	2.01%	$9.76	$751.76
	Total		54	155	155	7,949	1.95%	$11.48	$1,780.05
T-1	Dragon Ball (Sat)	PLF	44	727	727	10,740	6.77%	$14.57	$10,591.77
		Standard	81	375	375	11,985	3.13%	$13.39	$5,019.97
	Total		125	1,102	1,102	22,725	4.85%	$14.17	$15,611.74

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Beast (Fri)	N	26	171	258	3,597	7.17%	$13.32	$3,437.32
		Y	30	87	121	4,581	2.64%	$10.24	$1,238.55
	Total		56	258	379	8,178	4.63%	$12.34	$4,675.87
T-0	Dragon Ball (Fri)	N	116	578	1,919	21,494	8.93%	$14.48	$27,785.37
		Y	11	0	40	1,404	2.85%	$12.01	$480.45
	Total		127	578	1,959	22,898	8.56%	$14.43	$28,265.82
T-1	Beast (Sat)	N	24	55	55	3,368	1.63%	$14.43	$793.43
		Y	30	100	100	4,581	2.18%	$9.87	$986.62
	Total		54	155	155	7,949	1.95%	$11.48	$1,780.05
T-1	Dragon Ball (Sat)	N	114	1,037	1,037	21,321	4.86%	$14.37	$14,898.45
		Y	11	65	65	1,404	4.63%	$10.97	$713.29
	Total		125	1,102	1,102	22,725	4.85%	$14.17	$15,611.74

 

Beast previews was very close to the average of Massive Talent and Firestarter comps.  I didn't do any weekend runs for those movies, but I can add a couple comps and their adjusted numbers.

 

Beast Fri comps

 - Crawdads - .476x (2.51m)

 - Nope - .205x (2.69m)

 

Beast Fri adjusted comps

 - Crawdads - 7.5m

 - Nope - 6.25m

 - Morbius - 7.22m

 

 

Friday sales are much healthier than Thursday's were at 3.8x higher. With how good walkups were last night, I think we could see close to 3m true Friday

 

Beast Sat T-1 comps

 - Crawdads - .349x (1.87m)

 - Nope - .191x (2.66m)

 

 

Beast Sat adjusted comps (using 3m Friday)

 - Crawdads - 2.24m

 - Nope - 2.97m

 

We don't have a preview number for Dragon Ball Super yet, so I'm plugging 3.25m and running adjusted comps.

 

DBS Fri adjusted comps

 - JW3 - 3.86m

 - Batman - 3.64m

 - Bullet Train - 3.49m

 

I'll go with a 3.6m true Friday

 

DBS Sat T-1 adjusted comps (using 3.6m Friday)

 - Batman - 3.02m

 - Bullet Train - 4.84m

 

Pretty wide range in all comps, so without any good comps I'll wait to even predict a Sat.

[Issac Newton]

Edited Edited August 19, 2022 by Issac Newton

[scabab]

According to Deadline, Super Hero previews are $4 million.

[Gokira2012]

Executives on the Film industry message boards are saying Dragonball will come down to earth because Sony didn't do enough marketing for average non DBZ fans, they're saying it's extremely front-loaded and are eyeing 12-13 million OW 

 

I am wondering what did Dragonball do wrong and what did Demon Slayer do right, It had a $25 Million OW

Edited August 19, 2022 by Gokira2012

[dudalb]

Regal Theaters, one of the biggest US chains, will fire for bankruptcy.

The whole theater chain is not going to vanish, but, when the  new management comes in, a lot of the individual theaters which are not making money will be sold.

Another sign the whole Film Industry might be in for a very rough time.

[Gokira2012]

1 minute ago, dudalb said:

Regal Theaters, one of the biggest US chains, will fire for bankruptcy.

The whole theater chain is not going to vanish, but, when the  new management comes in, a lot of the individual theaters which are not making money will be sold.

Another sign the whole Film Industry might be in for a very rough time.

If i owned a film studio,i would buy Regal, that way you don't share 50% profits, you won't even need international

[Issac Newton]

3 hours ago, Gokira2012 said:

Executives on the Film industry message boards are saying Dragonball will come down to earth because Sony didn't do enough marketing for average non DBZ fans, they're saying it's extremely front-loaded and are eyeing 12-13 million OW 

 

I am wondering what did Dragonball do wrong and what did Demon Slayer do right, It had a $25 Million OW

DS did $40M OW, $25M is a wrong number. 

 

1st Estimate for FRI is $10M (i.p.)

 

Probably, won't be that frontloaded, that.... SAT is $1M &SUN is $1M....

 

Easily, more than $15M OW. +Anime Film are doing exceptionally well &above Industry Projection.

 

I remembered BOP calling for $8M OW for JJK, but it did $18M

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

21 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

DS did $40M OW, $25M is a wrong number. 

 

1st Estimate for FRI is $10M (i.p.)

 

Probably, won't be that frontloaded, that.... SAT is $1M &SUN is $1M....

 

Easily, more than $15M OW. +Anime Film are doing exceptionally well &above Industry Projection.

 

I remembered BOP calling for $8M OW for JJK, but it did $18M

 

Demon Slayer did not do $40M OW domestically. 

 

[Issac Newton]

27 minutes ago, In XXR We Trust said:

 

Demon Slayer did not do $40M OW domestically. 

 

Apologies (seem like I love number 40)

 

DS - $21,215,742 OW

[Gokira2012]

19 minutes ago, In XXR We Trust said:

 

Demon Slayer did not do $40M OW domestically. 

 

People keep trying to make Anime happen in US theaters, Anime will have the most success in Japan, 20-25 is nice OW, but it's not breaking through, Anime is Japan's Marvel, it's really not ours

[Tinalera]

3 hours ago, dudalb said:

Regal Theaters, one of the biggest US chains, will fire for bankruptcy.

The whole theater chain is not going to vanish, but, when the  new management comes in, a lot of the individual theaters which are not making money will be sold.

Another sign the whole Film Industry might be in for a very rough time.

I have to wonder if a company like Alamo Drafthouse would be interested in buying a few of said individual theatres to spread their brand. I could see a few becoming independent "run a movie 3 months after its opening" type of deal,  up here a couple of art groups run older run movies that way.

 

Piggybacking off this to a kind (?) of related question to anyone out there-have any theatres that you are aware of started or you are hearing rumors about the big chains with tons of theatres talking about mothballing screens? I just wonder if this push for Tentpole "premiere" type viewing is having an effect when there are no tentpoles out that the theatres are pondering renovating or mothballing screens? Anything like that happening?

[Gokira2012]

1 minute ago, Tinalera said:

I have to wonder if a company like Alamo Drafthouse would be interested in buying a few of said individual theatres to spread their brand. I could see a few becoming independent "run a movie 3 months after its opening" type of deal,  up here a couple of art groups run older run movies that way.

 

Piggybacking off this to a kind (?) of related question to anyone out there-have any theatres that you are aware of started or you are hearing rumors about the big chains with tons of theatres talking about mothballing screens? I just wonder if this push for Tentpole "premiere" type viewing is having an effect when there are no tentpoles out that the theatres are pondering renovating or mothballing screens? Anything like that happening?

Greedy studios and their streaming services

[charlie Jatinder]

22 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Harkins THU Previews

 

Dragon Ball Super - 8947/42101 (156 showings) $101,768

Beast - 1488/22808 (93 showings) $15,820

 

DBS around $3.5M may be. Beast should comfortably be around $0.9-1M.

Harkins FRI

 

Dragon Ball Super - 12947/70250 (253 showings) $144,879

Beast - 6340/59334 (242 showings) $65,673

 

Both did a lot better than I hoped and there is still time they can add a lil bit more. DBS probably ~$5.5M FRI for ~$9.25M OD. Weekend may be $18M approx.

 

Beast $3.75-4M FRI. Weekend may be $11.5-12.25M