The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Eric Prime]

Quorum Updates

Ticket to Paradise T-44: 26.35%, 5.23

Strange World T-77: 22.77%, 5.05

The Whale T-93: 23.23%, 5.02

M3gan T-128: 19.49%, 5.17

Barbie T-317: 38.01%, 4.49

Oppenheimer T-317: 16.59%, 5.13

 

Barbarian T-2: 21.18% Awareness, 5.16 Interest

Comps (All Final): The Night House w/ 18.09% Awareness & 5.17 Interest, Antlers w/ 21.71% & 4.81, The Cursed w/ 25.12% & 5.12, X w/ 23.58% & 4.94, Men w/ 18.5% & 4.7

*Note Barbarian's Final Awareness/Interest is subject to change in the coming days

 

Final General Awareness: 0% chance of double-digits opening

General Interest: 67% chance of double digits

Horror Awareness: 0% chance of double digits

Horror Interest: 55% chance of double digits

 

The Woman King T-9: 31.64% Awareness, 5.13 Interest

Comps (All Final): Stillwater w/ 36.44% Awareness & 5.73 Interest, Dear Evan Hansen 31.52% & 4.92, Ambulance 38.27 & 5.7, Where the Crawdads Sing w/ 32.67% & 5.42, Beast 39.28% & 5.68

*Note The Woman King's Final Awareness/Interest is subject to change in the coming days

 

Final General Awareness: 23% chance of double-digit opening, 3.5% chance over 20M

General Interest: 67% chance of double digits, 51% over 20M

Original - Low Awareness: 78% chance over 5M, 33% chance over 10M

Original - Low Interest: 60% chance over 5M, 30% chance over 10M

 

Amsterdam T-30: 17.8% Awareness, 5.34 Interest

Comps (All ~T-30): The Last Duel w/ 11.99% Awareness & 4.41 Interest, Nightmare Alley w/ 18.34% & 5.21, The 355 17.77% & 5.6, Three Thousand Years of Longing w/ 15.47% & 4.83

 

T-30 General Awareness: 30% chance of double digits opening, 12.5% over 20M

General Interest: 72% chance of double digits, 57% over 20M

Original - High Awareness: 14% chance of double digit opening

Original - High Interest: 55% chance of double digit opening

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever T-65: 61.14% Awareness, 6.61 Interest

Comps (All ~T-60): Spider-Man: No Way Home w/ 50.44% Awareness & 6.39 Interest, The Batman w/ 57.78% & 6.58, Doctor Strange 2 w/ 53.15% & 6.39, Thor 4 w/ 51.42% & 6.24

 

T-60 General Awareness: 86% chance of opening over 100M

General Interest: 83% chance of opening over 100M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of opening over 100M

DC/MCU Interest: 100% chance of opening over 100M

[Eric Prime]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-barbarian-and-brahmastra-part-one-shiva/

 

Film	Distributor	3-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, September 11	Location Count Projection (as of Wed)	3-Day % Change from Last Wknd
Barbarian	20th Century Studios (Disney)	$8,000,000	$8,000,000	~2,200	NEW
Top Gun: Maverick	Paramount Pictures	$4,000,000	$706,900,000		-33%
Brahmāstra: Part One – Shiva	Star Studios	$3,600,000	$3,600,000	~750	NEW
Bullet Train	Sony Pictures	$3,300,000	$92,900,000		-43%
DC League of Super-Pets	Warner Bros. Pictures	$2,900,000	$86,000,000		-42%
Beast	Universal Pictures	$2,300,000	$30,000,000		-43%
Spider-Man: No Way Home (Re-Issue)	Sony Pictures & Marvel Studios	$2,100,000	$9,500,000		-61%
The Invitation	Sony Pictures	$2,000,000	$18,300,000		-59%
Minions: The Rise of Gru	Universal & Illumination Animation	$1,900,000	$362,800,000		-46%
Where the Crawdads Sing	Sony 3000 Pictures	$1,200,000	$87,500,000		-41%

[abracadabra1998]

On 9/6/2022 at 5:30 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

Twin Cities Report is back! Sorry for the hiatus, things at the job have been picking up (as a teacher, I will miss summer), but I had some time today and looked into:

 

Barbarian (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 12 theaters	12	73	73	1781	4.1

 

Comps:

The Invitation: 2.7x ($2.1 M)

Beast: 0.94x ($870k)

 

The Invitation did especially poorly in the Twin Cities area, so that comparison isn't great in my opinion. I think on par with Beast makes sense for an opening. Will check in tomorrow.

 

Twin Cities Thursday Previews Report:

 

Barbarian (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 13 theaters	19	27	100	2087	4.79

 

Comps:

The Invitation: 1.4x (1.09 M)

Beast: 0.93 (860k)

 

Okay jump, previews around 900k-1M would make sense.

[John2015]

notfabio at HSX says that "Don't Worry Darling" is doing very well in advanced ticket sales, so the film will at least open strongly.

 

https://www.hsx.com/forum/forum.php?id=3&pid=550793

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

8 minutes ago, John2015 said:

notfabio at HSX says that "Don't Worry Darling" is doing very well in advanced ticket sales, so the film will at least open strongly.

 

https://www.hsx.com/forum/forum.php?id=3&pid=550793

 

Without context, that doesn't mean much. 

[John2015]

5 minutes ago, The More Fun XXR said:

 

Without context, that doesn't mean much. 

notfabio is a long-time reliable scooper in HSX

 

 

Anyway, I will not be surprised if "Don't worry darling" open well. 

"Where the Crawdads Sing" also opened well despite of bad reviews.

Edited September 8, 2022 by John2015

[Eric Prime]

23 hours ago, Eric-occhio said:

Barbarian Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	31	132	5060	2.61%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 49

 

Comp

0.695x of Old T-2 (1.04M)

3.300x of The Night House T-2 (858K)

1.859x of Antlers T-2 (688K)

0.539x of Last Night in Soho T-2 (377K)

1.419x of X T-2 (624K)

2.276x of Firestarter T-2 (842K)

1.333x of Men T-2 (564K)

0.270x of The Black Phone T-2 (810K)

1.941x of The Invitation T-2 (1.5M)

 

I know some people might freak out and think this is breaking out, but I need to clarify I'm doing a course correction here. I didn't know until a few minutes ago that there were early access shows tomorrow night, so part of the big boost (32 of those tickets in fact) were accounting for those extra screenings I was unaware of. Still, at least this paints a better picture of what the movie's preview gross could be.

Barbarian Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	32	264	5173	5.10%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 132

 

Comp

1.004x of Old T-1 (1.51M)

4.000x of The Night House T-1 (1.04M)

3.070x of Antlers T-1 (1.13M)

0.854x of Last Night in Soho T-1 (598K)

2.182x of X T-1 (960K)

3.520x of Firestarter T-1 (1.32M)

1.927x of Men T-1 (815K)

0.359x of The Black Phone T-1 (1.08M)

2.538x of The Invitation T-1 (1.97M)

[Eric Prime]

1 hour ago, The More Fun XXR said:

 

Without context, that doesn't mean much. 

I can give context.

 

Two theaters are doing the IMAX Early Access for DWD so far, and they seem fine enough. One has sold 34% of tickets in the auditorium, the other 72%. Early to tell of course, but not bad for a "premium fan event". It would also be LOL-tastic if this inexplicably becomes a hit off of tabloid gossip alone (haven't had that happen in a while), so I'm rooting for it!

[SchumacherFTW]

7 hours ago, John2015 said:

notfabio at HSX says that "Don't Worry Darling" is doing very well in advanced ticket sales, so the film will at least open strongly.

 

https://www.hsx.com/forum/forum.php?id=3&pid=550793

There's a name I haven't heard in a while

[M37]

8 hours ago, Eric-occhio said:

I can give context.

 

Two theaters are doing the IMAX Early Access for DWD so far, and they seem fine enough. One has sold 34% of tickets in the auditorium, the other 72%. Early to tell of course, but not bad for a "premium fan event". It would also be LOL-tastic if this inexplicably becomes a hit off of tabloid gossip alone (haven't had that happen in a while), so I'm rooting for it!

The early screening is more than 2 theaters, but rather a full IMAX Live run. Spot checking, tickets are selling really well … but I do have to wonder how much interest is for the movie vs potential fireworks during the live Q&A that follows it

[stripe]

Barbarian over 10M OW? Presales seem quite decent to me...

 

Also, reviews are really solid

Edited September 8, 2022 by stripe

[motionpic05]

It's hard to gain perspective of what the American reaction is to the Queen's death (Canadian here)

 

Is it likely that marketing for films coming up quick (The Woman King, DWD, Smile, Bros) will be halted or will they continue as usual?

[Eric Prime]

14 minutes ago, motionpic05 said:

It's hard to gain perspective of what the American reaction is to the Queen's death (Canadian here)

 

Is it likely that marketing for films coming up quick (The Woman King, DWD, Smile, Bros) will be halted or will they continue as usual?

No. Can you please stop with these "OMG this random news event happened. Does that mean everything will get delayed?" Because nine times out of nine, nothing will happen. This bit of yours has gotten very old.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

19 minutes ago, motionpic05 said:

It's hard to gain perspective of what the American reaction is to the Queen's death (Canadian here)

 

Is it likely that marketing for films coming up quick (The Woman King, DWD, Smile, Bros) will be halted or will they continue as usual?

Why would they be halted? While her death is historic, it will essentially effect absolute nothing in the real world. 

[Krissykins]

42 minutes ago, The More Fun XXR said:

Why would they be halted? While her death is historic, it will essentially effect absolute nothing in the real world. 

Everywhere apart from the UK you mean, obviously. 

 

We get a paid day off work for the funeral and the country goes into a national mourning. No sport for 10 days from now, for example. Haven’t had the full details yet. 

Edited September 8, 2022 by Krissykins

[motionpic05]

53 minutes ago, Eric-occhio said:

No. Can you please stop with these "OMG this random news event happened. Does that mean everything will get delayed?" Because nine times out of nine, nothing will happen. This bit of yours has gotten very old.

I didn't mean for it to come across as annoying. But, to say this is a "random" news event especially to Canada, UK is unrealistic. This is likely going to be the news story of the year.

 

It doesn't seem completely impossible for studios to stop marketing for a couple days out of respect for an icon.

[SnokesLegs]

8 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Everywhere apart from the UK you mean, obviously. 

 

We get a paid day off work for the funeral and the country goes into a national mourning. No sport for 10 days from now, for example. Haven’t had the full details yet. 

Unless I’m mistaken, England doesn’t actually get an extra bank holiday for the funeral (not sure about other parts of the UK though).

[el sid]

Barbarian, counted today at 11am EST for today:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 27 (2 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 43 (2 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 7 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 0 (1 showtime)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 24 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 53 (3 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 144 (3 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 289.

Up mediocre 30% since yesterday.
Comps (all counted on Thursday for Thursday): The Forever Purge (1.3M from previews) had 241 sold tickets,

Beast (925k) had 263 sold tickets

and The Invitation (775k) had 218 sold tickets.
That's a good number. Even with lower walk-ups than e.g. what The Forever Purge had 1M+ would be my guess.

 

Barbarian, counted today at 11am EST for Friday, September 9:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 55 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 49 (11 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 5 (5 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 0 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 5 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 54 (7 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 81 (7 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 249.
 

Up nice 78% since yesterday.
Comps (all counted on Thursday of the release week for Friday): Old (16.9M OW) had 500 sold tickets,

Malignant (5.4M OW) had 237 sold tickets,

The Night House (2.9M OW) had 90 sold tickets in 6 theaters (= x2.77 = 8.05M but Barbarian had the way better jump till today so I would rather go with 10M OW in comparison),

Beast (11.6M OW) had 248 sold tickets

and The Invitation (6.8M OW) had 204 sold tickets.
Not bad at all. Maybe it won't have the same walk-ups as Beast but it shouldn't have worse walk-ups than e.g. The Night House, no? The trailer has more mainstream-appeal IMO. Means double digits can happen.

Pearl had today after more than a day on sale 54 sold tickets for Thursday (with showtimes in 5 theaters) and 50 sold tickets for Friday (with showtimes in 6 theaters).
Comps (all counted after ca. 24h): The Black Phone had 95 respectively 34 sold tickets,

Barbarian had 100 and 24

and Beast had 53 and 26.

X had on Monday of its release week 50 sold tickets for Friday.

It's doing ok so far.
 

Brahmastra Part One: Shiva had today 43 and 75 sold tickets for today respectively tomorrow. But it has only in 3 of my theaters shows (to my surprise also not in the big AMCs Metreon and Citywalk) which means that the numbers above are not very meaningful.
Comp: RRR (9.5M OW) had in the same 2 theaters (2 not 3 because RRR had no showtimes in the AMC Fresh Meadow; the 2 theaters are the AMCs Sunset Place and Grand Rapids) 120 sold tickets for Thursday (vs 28 for Brahmastra) and 50 sold tickets for Friday (vs 46 for Brahmastra).
I looked at some other theaters as well and the sales are really ok for a foreign film. With so few data I have no idea if 5M are possible but 3M+ shouldn't be a problem.

 

Edited September 8, 2022 by el sid

[Cooper Legion]

2 hours ago, motionpic05 said:

It's hard to gain perspective of what the American reaction is to the Queen's death (Canadian here)

 

Is it likely that marketing for films coming up quick (The Woman King, DWD, Smile, Bros) will be halted or will they continue as usual?

Nobody cares here. It’s like the World Cup  

[Porthos]

11 minutes ago, Legion By Night said:

Nobody cares here. It’s like the World Cup  

 

Saying no one cares in the US is... um... Not Accurate, even for hyperbole:

 

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=now 7-d&geo=US&q=%2Fm%2F0d1_f,NFL

(it's the opening of the NFL season tonight)

 

Saying "not enough people care to really effect the box office"?  Yeah, I'd agree with that.  But not a news story in the US?  Disagree completely.  Very much is a story over here, even if you don't count the sizable chunk of the US population which is obsessed with the royal family.