The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Alexdube]

Quote

NWH had 184 sold tickets (the presales indeed decreased because people realized that Saturday is the $3 Cinema Day)

 

Bit confused by that, were the tickets more expensive when pre-buying?

[GOGODanca]

1 minute ago, Alexdube said:

 

Bit confused by that, were the tickets more expensive when pre-buying?

people cancelled their tickets bought for friday hence the number went down

[el sid]

2 minutes ago, Alexdube said:

 

Bit confused by that, were the tickets more expensive when pre-buying?

No. Back then I wondered why the sales for Friday decreased and other members suggested that many people just realized that the tickets on Saturday are way cheaper (because of the Cinema Day) and changed seats - means they cancelled their Thursday and Friday tickets and bought tickets for Saturday. And indeed the Saturday sales for NWH improved so much that this consideration makes sence.

[Alexdube]

4 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

people cancelled their tickets bought for friday hence the number went down

Oh I didn't see the tracking was only for Friday, my mistake

[filmlover]

Weekend Box Office Forecast: DON'T WORRY DARLING Aims to Leverage Social Media Gossip as AVATAR's Re-Issue Hopes to Revive 3D Appeal

Read more: https://t.co/EPPbDQ2bym #DontWorryDarling #Avatar #TheWomanKingMovie #BoxOffice pic.twitter.com/VALwVWrRe5

— Boxoffice Pro (@BoxOffice) September 21, 2022

[abracadabra1998]

20 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Twin Cities Thursday Previews:

 

Don't Worry Darling:

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 12 theaters	57	99	526	7676	6.85

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	23.19
3-Day:	100.76

 

Very solid indeed, and theaters around me are adding a ton of new showings. This is looking like the latest MCU entry out here (blah blah I know it'll be frontloaded let me jest in peace). Seriously though, no signs of slowing down.

 

Twin Cities Thursday Previews:

 

Don't Worry Darling:

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 13 theaters	60	123	649	7843	8.27

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	23.38

[interiorgatordecorator]

Based on recent re-issues, Avatar‘s signals indicate it has a shot to upset The Woman King for second place this weekend — but that’s not a lock. Disney reports an estimated 90 percent of Avatar screenings will be in 3D, including virtually all IMAX shows and 85 percent of other PLF screens (including 1,600 RealD 3D locations). 2D showtimes are minimal. This is the first time the film will be screening 4K HDR.

[babz06]

4 hours ago, filmlover said:

It depends on which areas in this state you're checking because I've been looking all around and it's been selling pretty well throughout the Palm Beach and Orlando areas for tomorrow and Friday (the 6:00 show at Disney Springs is almost sold out for Friday). I imagine this is going to be a very location-specific movie as to where it makes the most business.

I think some are counting out older white women demos. They could be the difference between this film sinking or swimming in the coming weeks.

[John2015]

Quote

 

 After weeks of making headlines for one controversy after another, director Olivia Wilde’s sophomore feature Don’t Worry Darling could surprise in its box office debut this weekend with $20 million-plus.

Official tracking and Warner Bros. are being more conservative in projecting $17 million. But based on advance ticket sales, exhibitors are giving a range of $20 million to $24 million (some think it could score even more).

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/dont-worry-darling-box-office-could-surprise-1235224114/

[misterpepp]

Should I word this as "The hierarchy of power in the DC universe changes on Sep 29" or just say Black Adam tickets go on sale on Sep 29?

[ringedmortality]

The former

[GOGODanca]

8 minutes ago, datpepper said:

Should I word this as "The hierarchy of power in the DC universe changes on Sep 29" or just say Black Adam tickets go on sale on Sep 29?

"Can you smell what the rock is cooking on the 29th?"

[Porthos]

3 hours ago, datpepper said:

Should I word this as "The hierarchy of power in the DC universe changes on Sep 29" or just say Black Adam tickets go on sale on Sep 29?

 

 

 

Spoiler

It'll just be my luck if this is a complete snooze fest after all. 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

22 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Don't Worry Darling Harkins T-2 Days

 

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
86	22,228	1,404	6.32%	$16,438	$11.71

 

Comps

1.52x of Where the Crawdads Sing - $3.5M

0.48x of Elvis - $1.7M

0.82x of Bullet Train - $3.7M

 

Expecting $3.5M ish previews for it, including EA. Probably lead to $17-22M weekend.

Don't Worry Darling Harkins T-1 Day

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
98	26,473	1,806	6.82%	$21,294	$11.79

 

Comps

1.26x of Where the Crawdads Sing - $2.9M

0.49x of Elvis - $1.75M

0.79x of Bullet Train - $3.6M

[Eric Prime]

On 9/21/2022 at 12:50 AM, Eric from Progressive said:

Don't Worry Darling Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	55	1251	9784	12.79%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 117

 

Comp

0.824x of Dune T-2 (4.2M)

1.851x of The Lost City T-2 (6.01M)

0.827x of Morbius T-2 (4.71M)

2.702x of Downton Abbey 2 T-2 (5.13M)

1.945x of Elvis T-2 (6.81M)

4.811x of Crawdads T-2 (11.07M)

Don't Worry Darling Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	55	1436	9784	14.68%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 185

 

Comp

0.816x of Dune T-1 (4.16M)

1.855x of The Lost City T-1 (6.03M)

0.777x of Morbius T-1 (4.43M)

2.497x of Downton Abbey 2 T-1 (4.74M)

1.948x of Elvis T-1 (6.82M)

4.365x of Crawdads T-1 (10.04M)

[Eric Prime]

On 9/21/2022 at 12:58 AM, Eric from Progressive said:

Avatar Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Tuesday Before Release (Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	62	515	11809	4.36%

 

Comp

2.441x of E.T. Tuesday Before Release (1.19M)

1.542x of Rogue One Tuesday Before Release (771K)

1.430x of Jaws Tuesday Before Release (1.25M)

1.599x of No Way Home Tuesday Before Release (2.81M)

Avatar Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Wednesday Before Release (Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	62	587	11809	4.97%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 72

 

Comp

2.446x of E.T. Wednesday Before Release (1.2M)

1.696x of Rogue One Wednesday Before Release (849K)

1.319x of Jaws Wednesday Before Release (1.15M)

1.658x of No Way Home Wednesday Before Release (2.91M)

[katnisscinnaplex]

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Don't Worry	PLF	14	362	362	3,509	10.32%	$15.27	$5,528.25
		Standard	31	292	292	4,360	6.70%	$11.54	$3,369.74
	Don't Worry Total		45	654	654	7,869	8.31%	$13.61	$8,897.99

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Don't Worry	N	34	581	581	6,038	9.62%	$14.00	$8,136.68
		Y	11	73	73	1,831	3.99%	$10.43	$761.31
	Don't Worry Total		45	654	654	7,869	8.31%	$13.61	$8,897.99

 

Comps

Crawdads - 1.272x (2.54m)

Elvis - .472x (1.51m)

Black Phone - .867x (2.26m)

Bullet Train - 1.42x (4.75m)

Nope - .515x (3.29m)

 

I've been away a few weeks so I have no idea where this is tracking elsewhere.  Just based on Santikos, I'd say mid 2s for previews.  Let's go with... 2.6m?  (I think I heard this had EA too, but not sure about that.  Usually Santikos would only have one or two shows for that so I'm not too worried, but this projection would be for true previews.)

[GOGODanca]

23 hours ago, GOGODanca said:

Update for Friday Sales: 

 

Avatar: 448 tickets sold across 57 showtimes (25.1% growth, 5 new showtimes)

 

DWD: 258 tickets sold across 81 showtimes  (16.7% growth, 24 new showtimes)

 

DWD Thursday Update:

 

367 tickets sold across 49 showtimes (32.5% growth, 10 new showtimes)

 

DWD Thursday Update

 

472 tickets sold across 50 showtimes (28.6% growth, 1 new showtime)

 

 

Friday Update:

 

DWD:  346 tickets sold across 86 showtimes (34.1% growth, 5 new showtimes)

 

Avatar: 574 tickets sold across 55 showtimes(28.1% growth, 2 less showtimes)

Edited September 22, 2022 by GOGODanca

[katnisscinnaplex]

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Bros	T-7	Jax	4	8	1	1	804	0.12%
		Phx	4	7	6	6	1,197	0.50%
		Ral	7	13	6	6	1,572	0.38%
	T-7 Total		15	28	13	13	3,573	0.36%
Don't Worry	T-0	Jax	5	28	248	248	4,335	5.72%
		Phx	7	21	524	524	3,539	14.81%
		Ral	8	24	307	307	3,025	10.15%
	T-0 Total		20	73	1,079	1,079	10,899	9.90%
Smile	T-7	Jax	3	5	15	15	678	2.21%
		Phx	4	6	26	26	1,065	2.44%
		Ral	7	10	23	23	1,481	1.55%
	T-7 Total		14	21	64	64	3,224	1.99%

 

Don't Worry T-0 comps

 - Elvis - .936x (2.99m)

 - Crawdads - 1.117x (2.23m)

 - Bullet Train - 1.03x (3.46m)

 - Nope - .544x (3.48m)

 

 Looking a little better here than Santikos.  Could see it close to 3m depending on walkups. For now I'll go with 2.8m true previews.

 

Bros T-7 comp

 - Easter Sunday - .406x (203k)

 

Smile T-7 comps

 - Black Phone - .542x (1.41m)

 - Nope - .122x (779k)

 - Night House - 5.33x (1.39m)

 

Black Phone is the closest comp in terms of total sales I have at the moment.  Take the others with a grain of salt.

[M37]

DWD appears to be having some atypical market spread for Thursday sales, but I can't quite put my finger on the underlying cause and effect (demographic through line).

 

Enough data points to suggest $3M+ in total previews, but how high it goes and what IM it even has from there are pretty murky IMO. And Avatar re-release similarly has a wide range out possible outcomes from data in hand. A real choose your own narrative week (until we start getting real numbers in)