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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

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Posted by Shawn Robbins,

PSA:   As a heads up to everyone, we'll be starting a new thread here very soon. For those who are newer to the forum, we typically have to split threads once they reach 1,000+ pages and are still highly active. In the past, such topics have created database slowdown issues that affect the entire forum.   Rest assured, this thread will be archived when it is locked and a link to the new one will be posted to help you find it easily (it will also be pinned to the top of the box o
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Posted by XXR & Friends,

Yea we're gonna drop all this non tracking stuff. That expressly means you, @excel1. Next post from you that isn't tracking related is a thread ban.    Anyone else continues, it's points. 

We're all tired of the non-tracking related thread derailments. This is your fair warning.

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katnisscinnaplex Box Office Gold

katnisscinnaplex

Posted
Posted
On 11/8/2022 at 11:24 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Previews*

MTC1 - 8,952 (582)

MTC2 - 6,162 (309)

MTC3 - 6,699 (488)

Total - 36,138 (3,248)

 

*These include the ~200 double feature shows

 

Fri-Sun

MTC1 - 31,276 (581)

MTC2 - 27,360 (309)

MTC3 - 32,148 (489)

Total - 146,352 (3,203)

 

Previews breakdown

 

Time Shows %
3:00 2,494 6.90%
3:01-3:59 2,912 8.06%
4:00-4:59 4,351 12.04%
5:00-5:59 3,270 9.05%
6:00-6:59 4,489 12.42%
7:00-7:59 5,621 15.55%
8:00-8:59 4,003 11.08%
9:00-9:59 3,409 9.43%
10:00-10:59 3,216 8.90%
11:00-11:59 1,697 4.70%
12am+ 676 1.87%

Previews*

MTC1 - 10,558 (583)

MTC2 - 7,871 (309)

MTC3 - 7,777 (488)

Total - 40,343 (3,315)

 

*These include the ~200 double feature shows

 

Fri-Sun

MTC1 - 36,551 (583)

MTC2 - 30,180 (311)

MTC3 - 39,238 (489)

Total - 182,459 (3,203)

 

Previews breakdown

 

Time Shows %
3:00 2,431 6.03%
3:01-3:59 3,268 8.10%
4:00-4:59 4,721 11.70%
5:00-5:59 3,681 9.12%
6:00-6:59 5,002 12.40%
7:00-7:59 6,289 15.59%
8:00-8:59 4,569 11.33%
9:00-9:59 3,981 9.87%
10:00-10:59 3,738 9.27%
11:00-11:59 1,960 4.86%
12am+ 703 1.74%
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ZackM Box Office Gold

ZackM

Posted
Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, ZackM said:

 

Final update of the night - 96.8k walkups and 484.5k total.  Comps will put it right around 27m.

 

 

Alpha - Wakanda Forever - Eastern Time Zone   Alpha - Wakanda Forever - Central Time Zone
Showtimes Sales Thor 4 Dr. Strange 2   Showtimes Sales Thor 4 Dr. Strange 2
3:00-3:59 33,690 102.9% 89.0%   3:00-3:59 13,536 68.4% 64.6%
4:00-4:59 16,833 83.6% 68.6%   4:00-4:59 6,854 67.1% 51.9%
5:00-5:59 14,261 111.1% 83.0%   5:00-5:59 6,094 82.5% 58.1%
6:00-6:59 31,298 85.6% 70.9%   6:00-6:59 18,484 75.7% 69.9%
7:00-7:59 47,184 124.8% 98.6%   7:00-7:59 26,381 122.6% 86.9%
8:00-8:59 30,905 134.5% 99.7%   8:00-8:59 14,366 109.1% 78.9%
9:00-9:59 20,066 57.2% 49.2%   9:00-9:59 7,645 37.8% 35.8%
10:00-10:59 25,086 100.5% 82.7%   10:00-10:59 11,533 100.7% 66.5%
11:00-11:59 16,575 265.2% 202.3%   11:00-11:59 5,495 224.7% 146.5%
12:00+ 3,595 109.7% 72.3%   12:00+ 384 20.5% 19.4%
                 
Alpha - Wakanda Forever - Mountain Time Zone   Alpha - Wakanda Forever - Pacific Time Zone
Showtimes Sales Thor 4 Dr. Strange 2   Showtimes Sales Thor 4 Dr. Strange 2
3:00-3:59 3,545 63.1% 62.0%   3:00-3:59 14,446 85.0% 72.0%
4:00-4:59 1,320 41.9% 38.7%   4:00-4:59 7,125 70.9% 59.9%
5:00-5:59 1,473 62.2% 55.8%   5:00-5:59 6,496 82.4% 62.8%
6:00-6:59 4,334 69.4% 60.6%   6:00-6:59 12,826 72.0% 56.3%
7:00-7:59 5,712 109.7% 82.4%   7:00-7:59 21,721 123.2% 92.8%
8:00-8:59 2,843 84.8% 72.0%   8:00-8:59 15,730 115.8% 95.9%
9:00-9:59 1,794 32.9% 33.1%   9:00-9:59 10,031 57.6% 48.5%
10:00-10:59 2,599 111.4% 60.5%   10:00-10:59 10,793 83.0% 60.0%
11:00-11:59 688 92.1% 97.7%   11:00-11:59 8,303 183.9% 113.8%
12:00+ 166 43.8% 31.4%   12:00+ 2,356 53.8% 35.7%

 

 

Very few additional sales after this update.  Here are the final numbers:

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: D0 Final
           
  Walkups Final Presales 2 Days Ago 3 Days Ago 4 Days Ago
Showings Added 0 78 200 396 380
Seats Added 0 6,304 16,194 41,549 41,073
Seats Sold 99,920 38,762 35,316 26,132 22,067
           
11/11/2022 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold
Total 439 8,895 487,708 1,304,222 37.39%
           
% of Seats Sold Sellouts 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+
# of Showings 32 248 825 1,720 2,766
           
ATP          
$15.83          
           
           
Black Panther Double Feature
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: D0 Final
           
11/11/2022 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold
Total 92 97 9,915 22,354 44.35%
           
% of Seats Sold Sellouts 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+
# of Showings 0 6 18 30 45
           
ATP          
$17.48          

 

 

Alpha - Wakanda Forever - Eastern Time Zone   Alpha - Wakanda Forever - Central Time Zone
Showtimes Sales Thor 4 Dr. Strange 2   Showtimes Sales Thor 4 Dr. Strange 2
3:00-3:59 33,690 102.9% 89.0%   3:00-3:59 13,536 68.4% 64.6%
4:00-4:59 16,833 83.6% 68.6%   4:00-4:59 6,854 67.1% 51.9%
5:00-5:59 14,261 111.1% 83.0%   5:00-5:59 6,094 82.5% 58.1%
6:00-6:59 31,298 85.6% 70.9%   6:00-6:59 18,484 75.7% 69.9%
7:00-7:59 47,184 124.8% 98.6%   7:00-7:59 26,381 122.6% 86.9%
8:00-8:59 30,905 134.5% 99.7%   8:00-8:59 14,366 109.1% 78.9%
9:00-9:59 20,066 57.2% 49.2%   9:00-9:59 7,645 37.8% 35.8%
10:00-10:59 25,086 100.5% 82.7%   10:00-10:59 11,743 102.6% 67.7%
11:00-11:59 16,575 265.2% 202.3%   11:00-11:59 5,981 244.5% 159.5%
12:00+ 3,595 109.7% 72.3%   12:00+ 440 23.5% 22.2%
                 
Alpha - Wakanda Forever - Mountain Time Zone   Alpha - Wakanda Forever - Pacific Time Zone
Showtimes Sales Thor 4 Dr. Strange 2   Showtimes Sales Thor 4 Dr. Strange 2
3:00-3:59 3,545 63.1% 62.0%   3:00-3:59 14,446 85.0% 72.0%
4:00-4:59 1,320 41.9% 38.7%   4:00-4:59 7,125 70.9% 59.9%
5:00-5:59 1,473 62.2% 55.8%   5:00-5:59 6,496 82.4% 62.8%
6:00-6:59 4,334 69.4% 60.6%   6:00-6:59 12,826 72.0% 56.3%
7:00-7:59 5,712 109.7% 82.4%   7:00-7:59 21,721 123.2% 92.8%
8:00-8:59 2,843 84.8% 72.0%   8:00-8:59 15,741 115.8% 96.0%
9:00-9:59 1,806 33.1% 33.3%   9:00-9:59 10,547 60.6% 51.0%
10:00-10:59 2,818 120.7% 65.6%   10:00-10:59 11,707 90.0% 65.1%
11:00-11:59 870 116.5% 123.6%   11:00-11:59 8,739 193.6% 119.8%
12:00+ 164 43.3% 31.0%   12:00+ 2,458 56.2% 37.2%

 

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Comps
  Thor: Love & Thunder Dr. Strange MoM
  Unweighted Weighted Unweighted Weighted
D0 $27.0 $27.0 $26.4 $26.5
T-0 $27.6 $27.5 $24.4 $24.6
T-1 $28.0 $27.8 $24.4 $24.7
T-2 $28.4 $28.2 $23.8 $24.1
T-3 $28.4 $28.1 $23.8 $24.1
T-4 $27.7 $27.5 $23.5 $23.8
T-5 $27.3 $27.1 $23.4 $23.7
T-6 $27.0 $26.9 $23.1 $23.4
T-7 $26.9 $26.8 $22.8 $23.2
T-8 $26.8 $26.7 $22.7 $23.1
T-9 $26.6 $26.4 $22.5 $22.9
T-10 $26.4 $26.3 $22.5 $22.9
T-11 $26.4 $26.3 $22.3 $22.7
T-12 $26.6 $26.5 $22.2 $22.7
T-13 $26.7 $26.6 $22.0 $22.5
T-14 $26.9 $26.8 $21.7 $22.2
T-15 $26.7 $26.6 $21.3 $21.8
T-16 $26.8 $26.7 $21.2 $21.7
T-17 $26.9 $26.8 $21.2 $21.6
T-18 $27.2 $27.1 $21.4 $21.8
Edited by ZackM
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Shawn Robbins Global Phenomenon

Shawn Robbins

Posted
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Posted
2 hours ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

I know everyone's talking about Black Panther, but does anyone have any data on fanthom's showing of the Chosen that's going wide next weekend? It seems like the answer is no (only search mentions I found was for boxofficepro's long term forecasts which don't include a projection) but is that an oversight by people, randomness in showings or something inherent in how this sort of rollout works? It obviously would lack many good comps (especially with non theatrical event showings) but I want to get my head around that film's baselines. 

If it replicates last year's special event's 9M OW (using hollywood preview rules), it would seemingly have a 50/50 shot to finish second to Black Panther 2 next weekend.  Probably not happening but it's a weird outlier story that no one seems to be talking about. 

 

I can say I do have internal estimates being shared with clients, they just aren't in the BOP publication this week due to specialty nature and other factors. That said, you're definitely right about it being a dark horse to watch. Sales are strong in key markets. 

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katnisscinnaplex Box Office Gold

katnisscinnaplex

Posted
Posted
On 11/4/2022 at 9:02 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie TC Shows Change Standard Last PSA PLF IMAX 3D
Black Adam 3,239 62,903 -24.88% 58,332 328.07 4,571 575 0
One Piece Film: Red 2,227 52,470   44,365   8,105 3,903 0
Ticket to Paradise 3,312 43,032 -2.61% 42,967 222.98 65 0 0
Prey for the Devil 2,627 34,120 -15.15% 33,826 158.23 294 0 0
Smile 2,624 29,339 -5.23% 29,305 175.48 34 0 0
Halloween Ends 2,484 24,375 -22.86% 24,364 128.47 11 0 0
Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile 2,404 22,192 -8.12% 22,180 113.49 12 0 0
Till 2,032 22,025 -1.93% 22,014 122.08 11 0 0
Armageddon Time 945 12,340   12,319   21 0 0
Banshees of Inisherin 785 9,383   9,370   13 0 0
TÁR 993 8,920 -11.46% 8,911 104.06 9 0 0
Terrifier 2 1,185 8,706 -22.10% 8,706 170.08 0 0 0
The Woman King 891 6,316 -20.12% 6,310 142.60 6 6 0
The Estate 302 4,080   4,066   14 0 0
Tanya Tucker 341 3,223   3,223   0 0 0
Triangle of Sadness 399 2,492 -46.89% 2,492 114.85 0 0 0
Call Jane 371 1,917 -82.40% 1,914 20.24 3 0 0

 

USA Showtimes Sample - 11/4 Weekend

 

OW Showtimes Comps

One Piece Red - 52,470 (2,227 TC)

 - Ambulance - 51,310 (2,947)

 - Crawdads - 53,855 (3,126)

 - West Side Story - 54,697 (2,479)

 - JJK - 41,623 (2,228)

 - Dragon Ball Super - 62,110 (2,856)

Armageddon Time - 12,340 (945 TC)

 - Good House - 12,607 (987)

 - Breaking - 12,196 (891)

 - Call Jane - 12,049 (972)

The Estate - 4,080 (302 TC)

 - The Policeman - 4,288 (345)

 - Becoming Custeau - 3,927 (310)

 

T-1 Week Showtimes Comps

Black Panther DF - 197 (195 TC) (previously missing MTC1)

Black Panther 2 - 160,642 (3,118 TC) (42,252 PLF)

 - DS2 - 173,506 (3,205) (38,061 PLF)

 - Thor 4 - 132,351 (3,087) (35,960 PLF)

 - No Way Home - 135,877 (3,146) (25,877 PLF)

 

T-2 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

The Menu - 3,316 (1,418 TC)

 - Dog - 3,104 (1,383)

 - Father Stu - 3,134 (1,400)

She Said - 2,214 (1,081 TC)

 - Beast - 2,330 (845)

 - Moonfall - 2,260 (1,111)

 

T-3 Weeks Preview Showtimes Comps

Glass Onion (11/22 Midnight) - 64 (64 TC)

Glass Onion (11/23 OD) - 2,323 (607 TC)

 - Marry Me - 2,115 (1,068)

 - Bad Guys - 2,295 (876)

Fablemans (11/23 OD) - 1,350 (381 TC)

 - Family Camp - 1,472 (509)

 - Belle - 1,258 (767)

 

T-4 Weeks Preview Showtimes Comps

I Heard the Bells - 908 (862 TC)

 - Lost City - 1,250 (482)

 - Belle - 1,197 (728)

Movie TC Shows Change Standard Last PSA PLF IMAX 3D
Black Panther 2 3,599 222,802   177,037   45,765 5,198 31,922
Black Adam 3,073 39,832 -36.68% 39,760 290.47 72 12 0
Ticket to Paradise 2,996 38,709 -10.05% 38,656 198.62 53 0 0
One Piece Film: Red 2,115 25,608 -43.65% 25,548 177.96 60 0 0
Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile 2,102 17,397 -21.61% 17,395 151.76 2 0 0
Smile 1,976 18,120 -38.24% 18,094 135.86 26 0 0
Prey for the Devil 1,929 19,103 -44.01% 19,091 114.11 12 0 0
Till 1,314 8,211 -62.72% 8,199 84.01 12 0 0
Armageddon Time 912 5,645 -49.56% 5,637 64.24 8 0 0
The Banshees 828 10,101 7.65% 10,072 219.11 29 0 0
Terrifier 2 451 2,435 -72.03% 2,435 129.87 0 0 0
Halloween Ends 406 2,018 -91.72% 2,015 59.09 3 0 0
The Woman King 397 2,555 -59.55% 2,555 143.56 0 0 0
TÁR 314 1,902 -78.68% 1,902 81.79 0 0 0

 

USA Showtimes Sample - 11/11 Weekend

 

OW Showtimes Comps

Black Panther DF - 197 (195 TC) 

Black Panther 2 - 222,802 (3,599 TC) (45,765 PLF)

 - DS2 - 229,917 (3,660) (42,543 PLF)

 - Thor 4 - 194,469 (3,540) (40,058 PLF)

 - No Way Home - 206,421 (3,340) (28,624 PLF)

 

T-1 Week Showtimes Comps

The Menu (11/15 EA) - 114 (AMC)

The Menu (11/16 EA) - 110 (Regal)

The Menu - 23,446 (1,792 TC)

 - Invitation - 21,624 (1,619)

 - Prey for the Devil - 23,020 (1,732)

 - 3000 Years of Longing - 21,989 (1,690)

She Said - 17,564 (1,375 TC)

 - King Richard - 18,783 (1,835)

 - Many Saints - 18,302 (1,823)

 - CopShop - 16,693 (1,519)

Spirited - 3,793 (282 TC)

 - French Dispatch - 3,716 (342)

 - Belfast - 3,960 (326)

 - Watcher - 3,695 (358)

The Chosen Season 3 - 15,014 (1,775 TC)

 - Memory - 14,955 (1,210)

 - Father Stu - 14,226 (1,388)

 

T-2 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

Devotion - 2,036 (701 TC)

 - House of Gucci (2,045 (1,402)

 - Death on the Nile - 2,077 (790)

Bones and All - 1,530 (932 TC)

 - West Side Story - 1,507 (613)

 - 3000 Years of Longing - 1,576 (692)

 - Massive Talent - 1,490 (831)

Strange World - 174 (78 TC)

 - Encanto - 1,928 (804)

Glass Onion (11/22 Midnight) - 64 (64 TC)

Glass Onion (11/23 OD) - 2,362 (614 TC)

 - Matrix (OD) - 8,183 (2,078)

Fablemans (11/23 OD) - 1,498 (422 TC)

 

T-3 Weeks Preview Showtimes Comps

I Heard the Bells - 985 (900 TC)

 - Belle - 1,258 (767)

 - 355 (1,082 (690)

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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
17 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Megaplex

 

T-1 Friday(338 showings): 6852(+1237)/76078

0.770x Thor L&T T-1 (31.20M)

0.486x Doctor Strange MoM T-1 (26.60M)

0.796x Batman T-1 (27.85M)

1.77x Eternals T-1 (37.71M)

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Megaplex

 

T-0 Friday(338 showings): 8860(+2008)/76078

0.764x Thor L&T T-0 (30.98M)

0.507x Doctor Strange MoM T-0 (26.60M)

0.809x Batman T-0 (28.32M)

1.69x Eternals T-0 (35.97M)

 

17 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-1 Friday(639 showings): 34488(+3962)/74790 ATP: $15.11

1.39x Thor L&T T-1 (56.21M)

1.06x Doctor Strange MoM T-1 (57.91M)

1.37x Batman T-1 (47.87M)

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-0 Friday(639 showings): 38761(+4273)/74790 ATP: $14.96

1.30x Thor L&T T-0 (52.92M)

1.04x Doctor Strange MoM T-0 (57.02M)

1.34x Batman T-0 (46.91M)

 

Just going through the motions for Megaplex. I expect it to end up somewhere between Drafthouse Thor and Doctor Strange comps. With the preview number of 28M, the Thor and DS Drafthouse comp average overperformed by about 3%. Applying that here, it comes out to a bit over 53M. So I'll say 53-54M. 

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katnisscinnaplex Box Office Gold

katnisscinnaplex

Posted
Posted
On 11/10/2022 at 11:40 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day Movie Format Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-0 Black Panther 2 PLF 39 1,034 4,961 8,374 59.24% $15.22 $75,500.18
    Standard 134 1,083 5,230 14,744 35.47% $11.45 $59,876.93
  Total   173 2,117 10,191 23,118 44.08% $13.28 $135,377.11
  Black Panther 2 DF Standard 2 8 110 317 34.70% $23.82 $2,620.20
  Total   2 8 110 317 34.70% $23.82 $2,620.20
T-1 Black Panther 2 (Fri) PLF 78 547 5,400 15,111 35.74% $14.91 $80,513.17
    Standard 159 985 4,109 18,738 21.93% $11.03 $45,318.35
  Total   237 1,532 9,509 33,849 28.09% $13.23 $125,831.52

 

By matinee

 

Day Movie Mat Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-0 Black Panther 2 N 132 1,830 8,844 17,358 50.95% $13.70 $121,163.50
    Y 41 287 1,347 5,760 23.39% $10.55 $14,213.61
  Total   173 2,117 10,191 23,118 44.08% $13.28 $135,377.11
T-1 Black Panther 2 (Fri) N 117 922 6,590 16,842 39.13% $14.26 $93,985.38
    Y 120 610 2,919 17,007 17.16% $10.91 $31,846.14
  Total   237 1,532 9,509 33,849 28.09% $13.23 $125,831.52

 

BP2 Thu T-0 comps

 - NWH - .513x (25.65m)

 - DS2 - .642x (23.13m)

 - Thor 4 - .899x (26.08m)

 - Batman + EA - 1.286x (27.78m)

 

Solid last day which was really needed to catch up to other areas.  I'm sticking with my 27m prediction, and feel a lot better about it now that both regions are closing in around it.

 

BP2 Fri T-1 comps

 - NWH - .523x (37.67m)

 - DS2 - .714x (39.05m)

 - Thor 4 - 1.223x (49.59m)

 - Batman - 1.229x (43.04m)

 

Expecting a higher number for Friday with it being a holiday, but still a ways to go in one more day.

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day Movie Format Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-0 Black Panther 2 (Fri) PLF 78 1,662 7,062 15,111 46.73% $14.63 $103,305.47
    Standard 160 2,803 6,912 18,774 36.82% $10.77 $74,466.12
  Total   238 4,465 13,974 33,885 41.24% $12.72 $177,771.59
T-1 Black Panther 2 (Sat) PLF 74 5,267 5,267 13,961 37.73% $14.55 $76,613.00
    Standard 155 3,811 3,811 18,239 20.89% $10.50 $40,003.36
 
Total
  229 9,078 9,078 32,200 28.19% $12.85 $116,616.36

 

By matinee

 

Day Movie Mat Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-0 Black Panther 2 (Fri) N 117 2,244 8,834 16,842 52.45% $13.92 $122,934.43
    Y 121 2,221 5,140 17,043 30.16% $10.67 $54,837.16
  Total   238 4,465 13,974 33,885 41.24% $12.72 $177,771.59
T-1 Black Panther 2 (Sat) N 114 4,624 4,624 16,275 28.41% $14.78 $68,323.23
    Y 115 4,454 4,454 15,925 27.97% $10.84 $48,293.13
 
Total
  229 9,078 9,078 32,200 28.19% $12.85

$116,616.36

 

BP2 Fri T-0 comps

 - NWH - .643x (46.29m)

 - DS2 - .876x (47.95m)

 - Thor 4 - 1.243x (50.42m)

 - Batman - 1.42x (49.69m)

 

That's some pretty good convergence.  Here's using the preview adjustment

 

BP2 Fri Adjusted comps

 - NWH - 50.52m

 - DS2 - 58.05m

 - Thor 4 - 54.1m

 - Batman - 50.09m

 

Friday should break 50m, but how high will it go?  I'll go with ~52m

 

BP2 Sat T-1 comps

 - NWH - missed

 - DS2 - missed

 - Thor 4 - 1.197x (50.41m)

 - Batman - 1.113x (48.26m)

 

BP2 Sat Adj comps

 - Thor 4 - 54.12m

 - Batman - 45.54m

 

Could be looking at a small drop on Saturday.

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