The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[LonePirate]

53 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

So I see not a single Regal around me is showing The Fabelmans. Is it the same across the country?

It's playing at the Regal nearest to me. It has sold a total of 7 tickets so far for Wednesday even though adult-oriented and awards films usually perform quite well there. The Fabelmans does not appear to be benefitting from that.

 

Oddly, Glass Onion also seems to be underperforming at this same Regal with the Wednesday sales heavily concentrated on the first prime time showing with hardly any tickets sold for the two matinee showings..

 

Both movies are doing a little better on Thursday but not by much. At present, I wouldn't have any trouble buying 4 good seats together for either film for any of their showings.

[filmlover]

I looked at Avatar sales near me for the weekend it comes out while buying my tickets to see Strange World with the fam on Thanksgiving and so far it's doing great in IMAX and PLFs but regular 3D and standard showings aren't showing anywhere nearly as much strength, perhaps not a surprise given what a monster the original was in IMAX during its run. I imagine the fact it's such a long movie + having a nice long runway to make money between opening weekend and New Year's + likely not being especially frontloaded compared to other anticipated sequels means the grosses will be pretty spread out over the holidays with people having time off.

[Inceptionzq]

6 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Avatar The Way of Water Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

198

2354

8.41%

AMC Highlands 24

Total

136

1774

7.67%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
736	N/A	24209	3.04%	15	157

 

AMCs sold	516
Cinemarks sold	90
Regals sold	72
Harkins sold	58

 

0.418x Black Panther WF first 11.5 hours (11.72M)

0.289x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (8.39M)

0.529x Jurassic World 3 T-24 (9.52M)

0.487x Batman first 6.5 hours (10.53M)

 

As has already been mentioned, the comp situation for this movie is gonna be tough. Regardless, doesn't seem like anything special so far but presales shouldn't be too much of a worry for Avatar unless they are really bad. I'll count again late tonight and maybe tomorrow morning to get close to the first 24 hours.

Avatar The Way of Water Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

234

2354

9.94%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

186

1774

10.48%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 6.5 HOURS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
995	259	24555	4.05%	15	161

 

AMCs sold	662
Cinemarks sold	146
Regals sold	110
Harkins sold	77

 

0.566x Black Panther WF first 11.5 hours (15.84M)

0.322x Thor L&T first 24.5 hours (9.34M)

0.715x Jurassic World 3 T-24 (12.87M)

0.511x Batman first 24 hours (11.03M)

Edited November 22, 2022 by Inceptionzq

[Inceptionzq]

6 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Avatar The Way of Water Megaplex

 

T-24 Thursday(103 showings): 737/25083

0.361x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (10.46M)

0.725x Jurassic World 3 T-24 (13.05M)

0.336x Batman first 6.5 hours (7.25M)

 

T-25 Friday(154 showings): 586/36835

0.689x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (27.94M)

0.659x Jurassic World 3 T-25 (27.41M)

0.961x Batman first 6.5 hours (33.62M)

 

T-26 Saturday(153 showings): 544/39352

1.55x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (65.27M)

0.836x Jurassic World 3 T-26 (39.20M)

2.13x Batman first 6.5 hours (92.29M)

 

T-27 Sunday(175 showings): 142/44851

1.56x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (50.70M)

1.07x Jurassic World 3 T-27 (41.21M)

5.92x Batman first 6.5 hours (202.00M)

 

Already has a nice distribution of sales throughout the weekend

Avatar The Way of Water Megaplex [+6.5 hours of sales]

 

T-24 Thursday(103 showings): 1074(+337)/25083

0.410x Thor L&T first 24.5 hours (11.89M)

1.06x Jurassic World 3 T-24 (19.01M)

0.364x Batman first 6.5 hours (7.87M)

 

T-25 Friday(154 showings): 821(+235)/36835

0.690x Thor L&T first 24.5 hours (27.98M)

0.924x Jurassic World 3 T-25 (38.43M)

1.01x Batman first 6.5 hours (35.34M)

 

T-26 Saturday(153 showings): 825(+281)/39352

1.66x Thor L&T first 24.5 hours (70.04M)

1.27x Jurassic World 3 T-26 (59.55M)

2.31x Batman first 6.5 hours (99.98M)

 

T-27 Sunday(175 showings): 235(+93)/44851

1.48x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (48.03M)

1.77x Jurassic World 3 T-27 (68.32M)

5.00x Batman first 6.5 hours (170.70M)

[Inceptionzq]

6 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Avatar The Way of Water Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-24 Thursday(127 showings): 1254/18613 ATP: $16.94

0.174x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (5.06M)

0.383x Jurassic World 3 T-24 (6.89M)

0.252x Batman first 6.5 hours (4.44M)

 

T-25 Friday(189 showings): 1378/27738 ATP: $16.27

0.299x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (12.12M)

0.523x Jurassic World 3 T-25 (21.75M)

0.333x Batman first 6.5 hours (11.66M)

 

T-26 Saturday(196 showings): 1576/28708 ATP: $15.43

0.408x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (17.18M)

0.563x Jurassic World 3 T-26 (26.40M)

0.512x Batman first 6.5 hours (22.15M)

 

T-27 Sunday(191 showings): 637/27775 ATP: $15.08

0.364x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (11.84M)

0.580x Jurassic World 3 T-27 (22.39M)

0.564x Batman first 6.5 hours (19.26M)

Avatar The Way of Water Alamo Drafthouse [+6.5 hours of sales]

 

T-24 Thursday(127 showings): 1525(+271)/18613 ATP: $16.82

0.185x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (5.36M)

0.466x Jurassic World 3 T-24 (8.38M)

0.261x Batman first 24.5 hours (4.59M)

 

T-25 Friday(189 showings): 1819(+441)/27738 ATP: $16.26

0.324x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (13.15M)

0.691x Jurassic World 3 T-25 (28.74M)

0.350x Batman first 24.5 hours (12.26M)

 

T-26 Saturday(196 showings): 1980(+404)/28708 ATP: $15.46

0.413x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (17.39M)

0.708x Jurassic World 3 T-26 (33.20M)

0.488x Batman first 24.5 hours (21.12M)

 

T-27 Sunday(191 showings): 820(+183)/27775 ATP: $15.01

0.348x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (11.33M)

0.747x Jurassic World 3 T-27 (28.83M)

0.556x Batman first 24.5 hours (18.97M)

[Porthos]

Avatar: The Way of Water Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-24 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	138	19300	20620	1320	6.40%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

1320

 

Day 1 Comp                   [USE AT OWN RISK DUE TO UNCHARTED WATERS]

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Dune	335.03		394	394		0/74	11255/11649	3.38%		2915	45.28%		17.09m
TGM	87.07		1516	1516		0/256	34603/36119	4.20%		11474	11.50%		16.77m
JWD	184.62		715	715		0/158	21618/22333	3.20%		10966	12.04%		33.23m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Avatar 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

BONUS COMP FOR REFERENCE ONLY [WILL ABSOLUTELY GO UP IN THE COMING DAYS]

JWD T-24

77.10

22

1712

0/171

22072/23784

7.20%

10966

12.04%

13.88m

 

Regal:        271/7309  [3.71% sold]
Matinee:    229/2342 [9.78% | 17.35% of all tickets sold]
3D:          856/15630  [5.48% | 64.85% of all tickets sold]
PLF 3D:     695/7435  [9.35% | 54.62% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

I've said before and I'll say it again: Sacto likes it some Sci-Fi.

 

Very nice day in Sacramento, indeed (non CBM/SW division).  Actually managed to come pretty damn close to Top Gun: Maverick after all.  And folks might recall just how well that film did here on its first day of sales.

 

But because TGM blew up here, I'm more than a little afraid that the comp is underselling how well A2 did do tonight.  Unfortunately, the JWD comp over sells it, hence my little bonus comp (which naturally under sells it by more than a little). Somewhere between the two extremes is as good a guess as any.

 

On the flip side, I did get about four hours of sales post-trailer drop (I finished up my count about 45 minutes ago and I've been working on just what to include here tonight since then [including playing with my spreadsheet]), so there's a bit of a thumb on the scale there.

 

Dune I threw in mostly for shits and giggles and because of the insane PLF skew it had (at the time it was around 70%+ PLF penetration if memory serves).  Almost certainly won't follow its pattern but the PLF skew should help with the 3D skew A2 is gonna have.  Might end up dropping it in a couple of days and bring it back in the final few.

 

Either way, good start, IMO.  How good of a start we will find out in due time.

 

NB:  A couple of theaters have yet to put up their initial sets, but meh.  They should be up by tomorrow since Cinema West did indeed start trickling in.

Edited November 22, 2022 by Porthos

[JustLurking]

I'm mostly asking for reference on what to expect, but do these comps take ATP into account or is it strictly a ticket sold comparison?

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

I'm mostly asking for reference on what to expect, but do these comps take ATP into account or is it strictly a ticket sold comparison?

 

Depends on the tracker.  Some do, some don't. Some mix and match.

 

...

 

And some rely on Dark Magic.

Edited November 22, 2022 by Porthos

[JustLurking]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Depends on the tracker.  Some do, some don't. Some mix and match.

 

...

 

And some rely on Dark Magic.

Gotcha.

[charlie Jatinder]

3 hours ago, Porthos said:

And some rely on Dark Magic.

HE CONFESSED.

[Cooper Legion]

38 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

HE CONFESSED.

[IronJimbo]

3 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Depends on the tracker.  Some do, some don't. Some mix and match.

 

...

 

And some rely on Dark Magic.

mix and match.. so like..

 

the legs of titantic, the arms of endgame, torso top gun and jim cam himself as the head

[Eric Prime]

Quorum Updates

Bones and All T-2: 16.95% Awareness, 5.05 Interest

Devotion T-2: 24.71%, 5.26

The Fabelmans T-2: 16.7%, 4.78

Strange World T-2: 35.27%, 5.32

Avatar: The Way of Water T-25: 68.41%, 6.70

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania T-88: 35.71%, 5.91

Cocaine Bear T-95: 12.61%, 5.21

Elemental T-207: 26%, 5.59

Oppenheimer T-242: 17.86%, 5.14

[IronJimbo]

6 minutes ago, Eric Killmonger said:

Quorum Updates

Bones and All T-2: 16.95% Awareness, 5.05 Interest

Devotion T-2: 24.71%, 5.26

The Fabelmans T-2: 16.7%, 4.78

Strange World T-2: 35.27%, 5.32

Avatar: The Way of Water T-25: 68.41%, 6.70

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania T-88: 35.71%, 5.91

Cocaine Bear T-95: 12.61%, 5.21

Elemental T-207: 26%, 5.59

Oppenheimer T-242: 17.86%, 5.14

do they have an archive? I want to see how those A2 scores measure up to recent films

[Eric Prime]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

do they have an archive? I want to see how those A2 scores measure up to recent films

You can compare to movies that came out over the past three months in the link below. However, if you want to go further than three months, you have to email hello@thequorum.com for that extra information.

 

https://thequorum.com/film/?filmID=15

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, Eric Killmonger said:

You can compare to movies that came out over the past three months in the link below. However, if you want to go further than three months, you have to email hello@thequorum.com for that extra information.

 

https://thequorum.com/film/?filmID=15

Seems to have already passed Opening Day Black Panther 2, pretty promising.

[M37]

17 hours ago, Porthos said:

Just got done setting up my sheets and a fairly good start.  Cinema West (as sometimes happens) hasn't set up its showings yet, but they should be up soon enough.

 

But let me tell you... the resistance to 3D is *REAL*.

 

This is exactly the type of film one would expect to skew heavily to PLF yet the PLF penetration is "only" 43% of all tickets sold.  

 

The 3D percentage, as might be expected, is much higher than normal... except nearly all of them are the PLF showings.

 

3D PLF tickets sold:                     239 tickets

3D standard tickets sold:                 9 tickets

2D all formats tickets sold:          308 tickets

 

Now, just one market and incredibly early days, but if folks want to know if making (nearly) all PLF showings 3D is putting a thumb on the scale, I have to say: Yes.

 

NB:  There were a couple of massive group sales (including one at an A-tier theater for 140+ tickets) and all of them were for 2D, which is... interesting.

Was curious about possible "3D resistance", so did a spot check of the Tampa/St Pete market, broken down by format:

 

 

Clear preference for PLF (over 75% of day 1 sales), not surprising given the nature of the film and the limited supply of seats creating more of an early buying rush. But beyond that - with the caveats of one day, one market, and differing options at each location - the standard presentations do appear to pulling in more sales than the respective alternatives, +14% per show for PLF and +10% for 3D. To put a cherry on top of the demand sundae: the 5 standard PLF shows (one of which is at 1230am) sold more tickets than all 55 3D shows combined in the first day.

 

Again, its early, but going to be interesting to see how these ratios may change as time goes on, and as the the PLF shows start to fill up. Also of note: set this up around 5pm, and that first run through captured about 75-80% of sales through 8AM today, which means not much of trailer bump, and that will likely manifest more with today's sales.

 

For those interested, total sales for ~20 hours was 1,276 - a healthy number for this market, but have no direct comps, and honestly not sure how often I'll be able to pull a full set (as I'm doing it manually)

Edited November 22, 2022 by M37

[IronJimbo]

3 minutes ago, M37 said:

Was curious about possible "3D resistance", so did a spot check of the Tampa/St Pete market, broken down by format:

 

 

Clear preference for PLF (over 75% of day 1 sales), not surprising given the nature of the film and the limited supply of seats creating more of an early buying rush. But beyond that - with the caveats of one day, one market, and differing options at each location - the standard presentations do appear to pulling in more sales than the respective alternatives, +14% per show for PLF and +10% for 3D. To put a cherry on top of the demand sundae: the 5 standard PLF shows (one of which is at 1230am) sold more tickets than all 55 3D shows combined in the first day.

 

Again, its early, but going to be interesting to see how these ratios may change as time goes on, and as the the PLF shows start to fill up. Also of note: set this up around 5pm, and that first run through captured about 75-80% of sales through 8AM today, which means not much of trailer bump, and that will like manifest more with today's sales.

 

For those interested, total sales for ~20 hours was 1,276 - a healthy number for this market, but have no direct comps, and honestly not sure how often I'll be able to pull a full set (as I'm doing it manually)

 

You know what, I'm hopeful that by the end of the 1st week the 3D sales will actually increase close to the 80% sales share that the first movie did. This is extremely promising for a start.

 

Think about it, 13 years of bad rep to 3D and a seemingly dead format, a fad that is over. As I called many time's Avatar 2 will cause a resurgance in 3D, just as the first movie did. People actually have to go see it for the 3D WOM to spread which is why these numbers are great.

 

[ZackM]

First Avatar2 run from last night:

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-24 days
	Last Day
Showings Added	3,826
Seats Added	614,143
Seats Sold	33,233
11/21/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	425	3,826	33,233	614,143	5.41%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	0	1	8	19
ATP
$19.80

Edited November 22, 2022 by ZackM

[charlie Jatinder]

19 minutes ago, M37 said:

3D resistance

Good. All these would be 3D repeat viewers when they hear how awesome is 3D.