The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

25 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Alpha tracked ATPs

 

Avatar 2 - $19.44 (T-20)

BP2 - $17.24 (T-20) ($15.83 final)

Thor 4 - $17.30 (T-18) ($15.84 final)

TGM - $17.68 (T-14) ($15.94 final)

 

I guess around $17.5-18 tracked final ATP A2 will have. Around 12% higher BP2 and Thor 4.

 

Need to think about other chains but could be lower due to lesser PLFs and 3D. 10-15% higher ATP overall may be. 

 

So it would be a fair assumption that anyone comping films strictly by tickets sold will also need to adjust expectations about 10-12% upward when it comes to Thursday (or any part of OW).

[Old Spice]

T-19 Salt Lake Valley update for Avatar 2: The Way of Water.

 

Preview Night:

Cinemark Sugarhouse (SLC, non-PLF) 46 (+10)

Cinemark Draper XD 89 (+18)

Cinemark Farmington XD 143 (no change)

Total Tix Sold: 278 (+28) 11.2% increase from 48 hours ago.

 

Current A2 presale as a % of FINAL presale:

Halloween Ends 129%

Nope 92.4%

Black Adam 84%

BP: Wakanda 22.8%

 

Current A2 presale as a % of FINAL presale, Sugarhouse only:

Elvis 48.4%

Eternals 23.3%

Dune 20%

JW: Dominion 12.6%

The Batman 10.9%

 

Next update on Monday.

[filmlover]

Showtimes M3GAN are starting to appear, starts at 5 that Thursday. Get ready.

 

[Eric Prime]

12 hours ago, Eric Clade said:

Avatar: The Way of Water Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-20 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	152	1388	26516	5.23%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 84

 

Comp

2.604x of F9 T-20 (18.49M)

4.284x of No Time to Die T-20 (26.99M)

1.529x of Top Gun 2 T-20 (29.44M)

0.980x of Jurassic World 3 T-20 (17.64M)

Avatar: The Way of Water Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-19 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	152	1469	26516	5.54%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 81

 

Comp

2.577x of F9 T-19 (18.3M)

3.738x of No Time to Die T-19 (23.55M)

1.469x of Top Gun 2 T-19 (28.29M)

1.019x of Jurassic World 3 T-19 (18.34M)

[interiorgatordecorator]

 

questions thats probably a few years too late, what did pre-sales point to JW1 opening to?

 

[Eric Prime]

13 hours ago, Eric Clade said:

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-26 and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	73	324	11535	2.81%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 113

 

Comp

0.262x of Sing 2 T-26 (2.55M)

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-25 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	73	479	11535	4.15%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 155

 

Comp

0.333x of Sing 2 T-25 (3.24M)

 

To clarify, Puss' Early Access numbers tally up to 467 tickets. And compared to Sing 2's 1,408 tickets, that's...0.332x of the film's 1.6M gross. So...531K. Early Access is always faulty and hard to determine when it comes to final opening/final gross, but I think it shows, at least now, that it's not as anticipated as Sing 2 at the moment. Could change of course!

[Eric Prime]

13 hours ago, Eric Clade said:

And now...bunny time!

 

[interiorgatordecorator]

13 minutes ago, Eric Clade said:

And now...bunny time!

 

 

best one yet

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-20 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	142	19210	21338	2128	9.97%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

98

 

T-20 Comp                   [GRAIN OF SALT DUE TO HAVING NOTHING BETTER EDITION]

	%		Sold T-20	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Bats	65.78		354	3235		0/248	29063/32298	10.02%		21117	10.08%		14.21m
TGM	81.69		306	2605		0/257	33617/36222	7.19%		11474	18.55%		15.73m
JWD	107.42		101	1981		0/184	22826/24807	7.99%		10966	19.41%		19.34m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Avatar 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:        462/7309  [6.32% sold]
Matinee:     312/2671  [11.68% | 14.66% of all tickets sold]
3D:         1457/15634  [9.32% | 68.47% of all tickets sold]
PLF 3D:    1184/7439  [15.92% | 58.65% of all tickets sold]

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-19 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	142	19068	21338	2270	10.64%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

142

 

T-19 Comp                   [GRAIN OF SALT DUE TO HAVING NOTHING BETTER EDITION]

	%		Sold T-19	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Bats	66.92		157	3392		0/248	28906/32298	10.50%		21117	10.75%		14.46m
TGM	79.45		252	2857		0/257	33363/36220	7.89%		11474	19.78%		15.30m
JWD	109.82		86	2067		0/184	22740/24807	8.33%		10966	20.70%		19.77m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Avatar 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       495/7309  [6.77% sold]
Matinee:    323/2671  [12.09% | 14.23% of all tickets sold]
3D:        1566/15634  [10.02% | 68.99% of all tickets sold]
PLF 3D:    1271/7439  [17.09% | 58.99% of all tickets sold]

[Tinalera]

Avatar 2

Canada East (Quebec, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Newfoundland)

Thurs Dec 15 (Taken Nov 27)

 

	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent	+ from previous
Quebec	4	19	526	4535	5061	0.1039	99
Nova Sc	4	13	273	3011	3284	0.0831	99
New B	4	11	76	2602	2678	0.0283	76
St Jon NF	1	4	60	856	916	0.0655	27

 

Please note that Nova S, New B have added 2 added theatres.

 

Okay so as the experiment continues, found more theatres in Quebec, Nova and and New B-but for sanity sake am keeping them to 4 each province. And am keeping Newfoundland with its one Theatre because I didn't want it left out ) 

 

 

 

Edited November 27, 2022 by Tinalera
adding information

[IronJimbo]

7 hours ago, Porthos said:

Regal:       495/7309  [6.77% sold]

Matinee:    323/2671  [12.09% | 14.23% of all tickets sold]
3D:        1566/15634  [10.02% | 68.99% of all tickets sold]
PLF 3D:    1271/7439  [17.09% | 58.99% of all tickets sold]

 

What does this part mean?

 

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, IronJimbo said:

 

What does this part mean?

 

 

Those are the percentages of, well, all tickets sold.  

 

That is, of the 2,270 tickets currently sold 323 of them are for matinee showings (and thus lower priced tickets).

1,566 of the 2,270 tickets are for 3D showings (and thus more expensive tickets [though some overlap with matinee).

And finally 1,271 of the 2,270 tickets are for the priciest showings, the PLF 3D (with a couple of matinees sprinkled in).  And, yes, the 1,271 tickets are a subset of the 1,566 tickets (therefore 295 of the tickets are for standard 3D showings).

 

It's a way for me to eyeball how much I want to adjust the figures at the end as I can compare these figures to other films.  Mostly including it here so folks can keep an eye on it themselves and know how brackets of tickets are generally selling.

Edited November 27, 2022 by Porthos

[M37]

Hey @ZackM - with ATP being a potentially significant variable with Avatar, would you be able to reproduce these graphs, comparing sales to the non-MCU tentpoles (TGM, Batman & JWD)?

 

 

[Eric Prime]

Quorum Updates

M3gan T-44: 34.36% Awareness, 5.9 Interest

A Good Person T-121: 16.23%, 5.38

Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret T-156: 12.85%, 4.61

 

Violent Night T-9: 39.75% Awareness, 5.93 Interest

Final General Awareness: 42% chance of 10M, 4% chance of 20M

General Interest: 100% chance of 10M, 80% chance of 20M

Original - Low Awareness: 75% chance of 5M, 42% chance of 10M

Original - Low Interest: 80% chance of 5M, 40% chance of 10M

 

Babylon T-37: 25.59% Awareness, 5.15 Interest

T-30 General Awareness: 58% chance of 10M, 25% chance of 20M

General Interest: 61% chance of 10M, 35% chance of 20M

Original - High Awareness: 67% chance of 10M, 50% chance of 20M

Original - High Interest: 50% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

[ThatWaluigiDude]

Puss in Boots 2 was getting some very positive reactions today from advanced screenings. Could this affect the pre sales?

[marveldcfox]

Seems like Avatar 2 and Puss 2 will co-exist beautifully this winter. 

 

[ZackM]

6 hours ago, M37 said:

Hey @ZackM - with ATP being a potentially significant variable with Avatar, would you be able to reproduce these graphs, comparing sales to the non-MCU tentpoles (TGM, Batman & JWD)?

 

 

 

Yeah, I should have time to throw something together tomorrow evening.

[ZackM]

On 11/26/2022 at 12:45 AM, ZackM said:

 

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-20 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	1	26	549	3,826
Seats Added	0	299	3,645	117,851	614,143
Seats Sold	2,733	4,269	4,706	12,555	33,233
11/25/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	435	4,402	57,496	735,938	7.81%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	0	6	24	54
ATP
$19.44

 

This is from yesterday.  I'll have today's numbers sometime tomorrow.

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-19 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	2	0	1	26	549
Seats Added	400	0	299	3,645	117,851
Seats Sold	3,124	2,733	4,269	4,706	12,555
11/26/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	435	4,404	60,620	736,338	8.23%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	0	6	25	65
ATP
$19.37

[Flip]

With Puss and Boots' early reception it looks like it might be poised to emulate the run Sing 2 had last year (A or A+ cinema score, 7x legs, holiday opening, etc.)

[Eric Prime]

On 11/26/2022 at 10:45 PM, Eric Clade said:

Avatar: The Way of Water Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-19 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	152	1469	26516	5.54%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 81

 

Comp

2.577x of F9 T-19 (18.3M)

3.738x of No Time to Die T-19 (23.55M)

1.469x of Top Gun 2 T-19 (28.29M)

1.019x of Jurassic World 3 T-19 (18.34M)

Avatar: The Way of Water Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-18 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	152	1545	26516	5.83%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 76

 

Comp

2.619x of F9 T-18 (18.59M)

3.585x of No Time to Die T-18 (22.58M)

1.408x of Top Gun 2 T-18 (27.12M)

1.045x of Jurassic World 3 T-18 (18.82M)