The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Eric Prime]

23 hours ago, Eric Dielman said:

M3GAN Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-27 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	33	15	5433	0.28%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 0

 

Comp

0.200x of Scream T-27 (700K)

0.083x of Nope T-27 (530K)

M3GAN Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-26 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	33	17	5433	0.31%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 2

 

Comp

0.126x of Scream T-26 (441K)

0.094x of Nope T-26 (601K)

[ZackM]

On 12/10/2022 at 12:18 AM, ZackM said:

 

Strangely weak day today.

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	17	33	48	244	126
Seats Added	2,343	6,327	7,096	27,498	14,059
Seats Sold	5,570	6,345	6,657	5,248	4,766
12/9/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	436	4,919	113,853	801,847	14.20%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	5	29	96	207
ATP
$18.59

 

 

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Comps
	Thor: Love & Thunder		Black Panther: Wakanda Forever		Jurassic World: Dominion		The Batman		Top Gun: Maverick
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6	$12.8	$14.1	$13.3	$14.7	$22.6	$23.9	$13.7	$15.1	$20.8	$22.3
T-7	$12.7	$14.0	$13.2	$14.6	$23.1	$24.4	$13.7	$15.0	$21.3	$22.9
T-8	$12.4	$13.6	$12.9	$14.3	$22.9	$24.1	$13.3	$14.6	$21.5	$23.1
T-9	$11.9	$13.2	$12.6	$14.0	$22.6	$23.9	$12.8	$14.1	$21.2	$22.8
T-10	$11.6	$12.8	$12.3	$13.7	$22.4	$23.6	$12.6	$13.9	$21.2	$22.8
T-11	$11.3	$12.5	$12.0	$13.3	$22.0	$23.2	$12.2	$13.5	$21.0	$22.5
T-12	$11.1	$12.2	$11.6	$12.9	$21.6	$22.9	$11.9	$13.1	$20.7	$22.3
T-13	$10.9	$12.1	$11.4	$12.7	$21.4	$22.7	$11.7	$13.0	$20.9	$22.5
T-14	$10.8	$12.0	$11.3	$12.6	$21.2	$22.5	$11.5	$12.8	$21.6	$23.3
T-15	$10.6	$11.8	$11.1	$12.4	$21.0	$22.3
T-16	$10.4	$11.6	$10.9	$12.2	$20.7	$22.0
T-17	$10.3	$11.5	$10.7	$12.0	$20.6	$21.9
T-18	$10.2	$11.4	$10.5	$11.8	$20.5	$21.8

 

 

Definitely some interesting behavior as we hit the final stretch.

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	46	17	33	48	244
Seats Added	5,853	2,343	6,327	7,096	27,498
Seats Sold	6,678	5,570	6,345	6,657	5,248
12/10/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	436	4,965	120,531	807,700	14.92%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	6	33	105	232
ATP
$18.51

 

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Comps
	Thor: Love & Thunder		Black Panther: Wakanda Forever		Jurassic World: Dominion		The Batman		Top Gun: Maverick
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5	$13.1	$14.4	$13.4	$14.9	$22.2	$23.5	$13.9	$15.3	$20.3	$21.8
T-6	$12.8	$14.1	$13.3	$14.7	$22.6	$23.9	$13.7	$15.1	$20.8	$22.3
T-7	$12.7	$14.0	$13.2	$14.6	$23.1	$24.4	$13.7	$15.0	$21.3	$22.9
T-8	$12.4	$13.6	$12.9	$14.3	$22.9	$24.1	$13.3	$14.6	$21.5	$23.1
T-9	$11.9	$13.2	$12.6	$14.0	$22.6	$23.9	$12.8	$14.1	$21.2	$22.8
T-10	$11.6	$12.8	$12.3	$13.7	$22.4	$23.6	$12.6	$13.9	$21.2	$22.8
T-11	$11.3	$12.5	$12.0	$13.3	$22.0	$23.2	$12.2	$13.5	$21.0	$22.5
T-12	$11.1	$12.2	$11.6	$12.9	$21.6	$22.9	$11.9	$13.1	$20.7	$22.3
T-13	$10.9	$12.1	$11.4	$12.7	$21.4	$22.7	$11.7	$13.0	$20.9	$22.5
T-14	$10.8	$12.0	$11.3	$12.6	$21.2	$22.5	$11.5	$12.8	$21.6	$23.3
T-15	$10.6	$11.8	$11.1	$12.4	$21.0	$22.3
T-16	$10.4	$11.6	$10.9	$12.2	$20.7	$22.0
T-17	$10.3	$11.5	$10.7	$12.0	$20.6	$21.9
T-18	$10.2	$11.4	$10.5	$11.8	$20.5	$21.8

Edited December 11, 2022 by ZackM

[Tokugennumataka]

9 minutes ago, ZackM said:

 

 

Definitely some interesting behavior as we hit the final stretch.

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	46	17	33	48	244
Seats Added	5,853	2,343	6,327	7,096	27,498
Seats Sold	6,678	5,570	6,345	6,657	5,248
12/10/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	436	4,965	120,531	807,700	14.92%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	6	33	105	232
ATP
$18.51

 

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Comps
	Thor: Love & Thunder		Black Panther: Wakanda Forever		Jurassic World: Dominion		The Batman		Top Gun: Maverick
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5	$13.1	$14.4	$13.4	$14.9	$22.2	$23.5	$13.9	$15.3	$20.3	$21.8
T-6	$12.8	$14.1	$13.3	$14.7	$22.6	$23.9	$13.7	$15.1	$20.8	$22.3
T-7	$12.7	$14.0	$13.2	$14.6	$23.1	$24.4	$13.7	$15.0	$21.3	$22.9
T-8	$12.4	$13.6	$12.9	$14.3	$22.9	$24.1	$13.3	$14.6	$21.5	$23.1
T-9	$11.9	$13.2	$12.6	$14.0	$22.6	$23.9	$12.8	$14.1	$21.2	$22.8
T-10	$11.6	$12.8	$12.3	$13.7	$22.4	$23.6	$12.6	$13.9	$21.2	$22.8
T-11	$11.3	$12.5	$12.0	$13.3	$22.0	$23.2	$12.2	$13.5	$21.0	$22.5
T-12	$11.1	$12.2	$11.6	$12.9	$21.6	$22.9	$11.9	$13.1	$20.7	$22.3
T-13	$10.9	$12.1	$11.4	$12.7	$21.4	$22.7	$11.7	$13.0	$20.9	$22.5
T-14	$10.8	$12.0	$11.3	$12.6	$21.2	$22.5	$11.5	$12.8	$21.6	$23.3
T-15	$10.6	$11.8	$11.1	$12.4	$21.0	$22.3
T-16	$10.4	$11.6	$10.9	$12.2	$20.7	$22.0
T-17	$10.3	$11.5	$10.7	$12.0	$20.6	$21.9
T-18	$10.2	$11.4	$10.5	$11.8	$20.5	$21.8

Wow. Definitely some weird patterns. Could it be because PLFs are almost sold out and lack of non PLF shows hurting it. People could be waiting to watch it 'the right way'. 

[Porthos]

I will point out that the Saturday-before-release is often a slow day compared to the Fri before it and the Sun after it.  Not always, and the amount can vary due to a variety of factors (for instance, IMO, Philly was running hot for a couple of days so the snapback appears more stark here).

 

Can't really comment on my market until I see its pattern tonight, but this isn't that unusual.  Sun and Mon will tell more of a tale, is what I suppose I am sayin'. 

[Cooper Legion]

Philly Fri was randomly insane, so awful Sat seems fair. 2day pace normal-ish

[wboxoffice]

14 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Avatar 2	T-5	Jax	5	84	93	1,498	11,195	13.38%
		Phx	7	92	59	1,104	13,532	8.16%
		Ral	8	73	84	1,317	8,765	15.03%
ATP: $16.44	Total		20	249	236	3,919	33,492	11.70%
Babylon	T-12	Jax	5	12	0	16	1,380	1.16%
		Phx	4	13	2	24	1,357	1.77%
		Ral	8	17	2	28	1,618	1.73%
	Total		17	42	4	68	4,355	1.56%
I Wanna Dance	T-12	Jax	5	15	2	24	1,454	1.65%
		Phx	4	13	0	21	1,277	1.64%
		Ral	9	25	4	37	2,579	1.43%
	Total		17	53	6	82	5,310	1.54%
M3GAN	T-26	Jax	5	20	0	5	1,758	0.28%
		Phx	4	11	2	6	1,327	0.45%
		Ral	7	14	0	10	1,817	0.55%
	Total		16	45	2	21	4,902	0.43%
Puss in Boots	T-11	Jax	6	31	0	20	3,261	0.61%
		Phx	6	29	0	14	3,388	0.41%
		Ral	6	33	8	40	3,865	1.03%
	Total		18	93	8	74	10,514	0.70%

 

Avatar 2 T-5 comps

 - Eternals - 1.704x (16.19m)

 - TG2 - .858x (16.55m)

 - JW3 - missed

 - F9 - 3.44x (24.41m)

 - Ghostbusters - missed

 - NTTD - missed

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - missed

 - Dune - missed

 

ATP Adjusted

 - Eternals - 19.22m

 - JW3 - missed

 - FB3 - missed

 

Puss in Boots T-11 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .189x (943k)

 - Minions 2 - missed

 - Lyle Lyle - 6.73x (3.87m)

 - Super Pets - 1.85x (4.07m)

 

I Wanna Dance T-12 comps

 - Elvis - .35x (1.12m)

 

Babylon T-12 comps

 - Elvis - .291x (930k)

 

M3GAN T-26 comps

 - BW - .028x (364k)

 - JW3 - .015x (271k)

 

(Not much to go on)

 

Hi, are you able to also compare I Wanna Dance with The Woman King as they are both Sony releases and featuring a black woman in the lead?  Or is the data for TWK not available or maybe it's too much added work?  Thanks for all your posts they are appreciated!

Edited December 11, 2022 by wboxoffice

[M37]

44 minutes ago, Legion By Night said:

Philly Fri was randomly insane, so awful Sat seems fair. 2day pace normal-ish

 

48 minutes ago, Porthos said:

IMO, Philly was running hot for a couple of days so the snapback appears more stark here).

 

Philly Fri was only +176, not +391 - that was the 2 day total for sales (CC@Eric Dielman). Last 4 days in reverse (Sat/T-5 to Tue/T-9) are +143, +176, +215, +161, +134

 

 

54 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Can't really comment on my market until I see its pattern tonight, but this isn't that unusual.  Sun and Mon will tell more of a tale, is what I suppose I am sayin'. 

 

Agree on that, but Fri/Sat look to be setting a pretty low baseline for growth (+11-14%), so even some improvement still leaves Avatwo lagging.  For reference, TGM was +26-31% for the FSS (T-7 to T-4) before release, so even seeing Sunday sales at combined Fri/Sat total would still leave it a tad behind that pace, and that's a tall ask ...

 

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-6 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	184	21739	26129	4390	16.80%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

236

 

T-6 Comp                   [GRAIN OF SALT DUE TO HAVING NOTHING BETTER EDITION]

	%		Sold T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Dune	384.75		93	1141		0/79	11187/12328	9.26%		2915	150.60%		19.62m
Bats	81.27		220	5402		0/297	31388/36790	14.68%		21117	20.79%		17.55m
FB3	309.81		101	1417		0/171	23351/24768	5.72%		4456	98.52%		18.59m
TGM	69.22		399	6342		0/271	30967/37309	17.00%		11474	38.26%		13.33m
JWD	105.28		285	4170		0/223	23587/27757	15.02%		10966	40.03%		18.95m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Avatar 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       1030/9649  [10.67% sold]
Matinee:      510/3673  [13.89% | 11.62% of all tickets sold]
3D:          2926/17023  [17.19% | 66.65% of all tickets sold]
PLF 3D:     2179/7439  [29.29% | 49.64% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Noticed a slight reporting error in my sheets.  Didn't affect any of the comps, but was inflating the reported PLF 3D percentage of all seats sold slightly (was reporting the total PLF percentage the whole time by mistake).  Not a huge difference, about five percent or so currently, and the amount of PLF 3D tickets I've been reporting sold each day was accurate, but still commenting on it all the same.

 

The overall PLF percentage is at the moment a tick shy of 54%, which means it is very likely to drop below Dune and Top Gun: Maverick when all is said and done.  Which means I might not adjust for 3D ticket surcharge nearly as much as I thought I might (esp since there should be more kids tickets sold for this film than Dune)

 

If I care that much (and I might), I might edit in the correct percentage over the next couple of days in my old posts.

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-5 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	198	22541	27227	4686	17.21%

 

Total Showings Added Today	14
Total Seats Added Today	1098
Total Seats Sold Today	296

 

T-5 Comp                   [GRAIN OF SALT DUE TO HAVING NOTHING BETTER EDITION]

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Dune	389.20		63	1204		0/79	11124/12328	9.77%		2915	160.75%		19.85m
Bats	82.89		251	5653		0/297	31137/36790	15.37%		21117	22.19%		17.91m
FB3	301.74		136	1553		0/178	23915/25468	6.10%		4456	105.16%		18.10m
TGM	70.42		312	6654		0/271	30655/37309	17.83%		11474	40.84%		13.56m
JWD	101.45		449	4619		0/224	23313/27932	16.54%		10966	42.73%		18.26m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Avatar 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:        1117/9649  [11.58% sold]
Matinee:    544/4008  [13.57% | 11.61% of all tickets sold]
3D:          3122/17023  [18.34% | 66.62% of all tickets sold]
PLF 3D:    2282/7439  [30.68% | 48.70% of all tickets sold]

[Andreas]

It is interesting to see that the presales in the US are the weakest at the global level. In all the other markets where we received data about advance sales (China, South Korea, Germany, Australia, India), the film is selling many more tickets (relatively, of course).

Imo, ticket sales in the US seem to suggest way under $20M on Thursday.

 

Was the first movie less appreciated/more hated in the US than in the rest of the world?

Edited December 11, 2022 by Andreas

[JustLurking]

Seems to be converging down instead of up, meh. Let's see the final days I guess.

[Gkalaitza]

4 hours ago, Tokugennumataka said:

Wow. Definitely some weird patterns. Could it be because PLFs are almost sold out and lack of non PLF shows hurting it. People could be waiting to watch it 'the right way'. 

Thats a reasonable guess. Aprehension towards 3d could also lead to "if im gonna go to see it in 3d im gonna look for the best seats and format possible" thinking.  Also i would guess that compared to most of the comps other than TGM (superhero movies, Transformers, FF franchise) Avatar 2 will be stronger with people in their 40s and 50s (even 60s) which is a demographic that i suppose is less pre-sale heavy in their ticket buying habits compared to younger people and has a bigger "Oh Avatar 2 is playing so imma show up on Sunday" potential. Also thats probably the way most non PLF, 3d and non premium format screens will get some occupancy.  

 

Either way >$20m would be cool and strong yes but a idk $17-18m OD wont be determinal for the OW or overall numbers imo . It does seem like its sales are more evenly spread across the weekend compared to most recent blockbusters either way. Also if reviews are as great as they could be we will probably see a bigger boost in the last couple of days compared to whats expected otherwise . Some instant WOM impact on Sat/Sun may be possible as well

Edited December 11, 2022 by Gkalaitza

[katnisscinnaplex]

5 hours ago, wboxoffice said:

 

Hi, are you able to also compare I Wanna Dance with The Woman King as they are both Sony releases and featuring a black woman in the lead?  Or is the data for TWK not available or maybe it's too much added work?  Thanks for all your posts they are appreciated!

Unfortunately I don't have any presales data for TWK, I took most of September off from tracking.

[katnisscinnaplex]

20 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Avatar 2	T-5	Jax	5	84	93	1,498	11,195	13.38%
		Phx	7	92	59	1,104	13,532	8.16%
		Ral	8	73	84	1,317	8,765	15.03%
ATP: $16.44	Total		20	249	236	3,919	33,492	11.70%
Babylon	T-12	Jax	5	12	0	16	1,380	1.16%
		Phx	4	13	2	24	1,357	1.77%
		Ral	8	17	2	28	1,618	1.73%
	Total		17	42	4	68	4,355	1.56%
I Wanna Dance	T-12	Jax	5	15	2	24	1,454	1.65%
		Phx	4	13	0	21	1,277	1.64%
		Ral	9	25	4	37	2,579	1.43%
	Total		17	53	6	82	5,310	1.54%
M3GAN	T-26	Jax	5	20	0	5	1,758	0.28%
		Phx	4	11	2	6	1,327	0.45%
		Ral	7	14	0	10	1,817	0.55%
	Total		16	45	2	21	4,902	0.43%
Puss in Boots	T-11	Jax	6	31	0	20	3,261	0.61%
		Phx	6	29	0	14	3,388	0.41%
		Ral	6	33	8	40	3,865	1.03%
	Total		18	93	8	74	10,514	0.70%

 

Avatar 2 T-5 comps

 - Eternals - 1.704x (16.19m)

 - TG2 - .858x (16.55m)

 - JW3 - missed

 - F9 - 3.44x (24.41m)

 - Ghostbusters - missed

 - NTTD - missed

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - missed

 - Dune - missed

 

ATP Adjusted

 - Eternals - 19.22m

 - JW3 - missed

 - FB3 - missed

 

Puss in Boots T-11 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .189x (943k)

 - Minions 2 - missed

 - Lyle Lyle - 6.73x (3.87m)

 - Super Pets - 1.85x (4.07m)

 

I Wanna Dance T-12 comps

 - Elvis - .35x (1.12m)

 

Babylon T-12 comps

 - Elvis - .291x (930k)

 

M3GAN T-26 comps

 - BW - .028x (364k)

 - JW3 - .015x (271k)

 

(Not much to go on)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Avatar 2	T-4	Jax	5	84	117	1,615	11,195	14.43%
		Phx	7	92	134	1,238	13,532	9.15%
		Ral	8	73	92	1,409	8,765	16.08%
	Total		20	249	343	4,262	33,492	12.73%
Babylon	T-11	Jax	5	12	-1	15	1,380	1.09%
		Phx	4	13	2	26	1,357	1.92%
		Ral	8	17	5	33	1,618	2.04%
	Total		17	42	6	74	4,355	1.70%
I Wanna Dance	T-11	Jax	5	15	2	26	1,454	1.79%
		Phx	4	13	6	27	1,277	2.11%
		Ral	9	25	14	51	2,579	1.98%
	Total		17	53	22	104	5,310	1.96%
M3GAN	T-25	Jax	5	20	0	5	1,758	0.28%
		Phx	4	11	2	8	1,327	0.60%
		Ral	7	14	0	10	1,817	0.55%
	Total		16	45	2	23	4,902	0.47%
Puss in Boots	T-10	Jax	6	31	2	22	3,261	0.67%
		Phx	6	29	2	16	3,388	0.47%
		Ral	6	33	11	51	3,865	1.32%
	Total		18	93	15	89	10,514	0.85%

 

Avatar 2 T-4 comps

 - Eternals - 1.726x (16.39m)

 - TG2 - .845x (16.32m)

 - JW3 - missed

 - F9 - 3.43x (24.38m)

 - Ghostbusters - 5.308x (22.03m)

 - NTTD - 4.29x (22.32m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - missed

 - Dune - missed

 

ATP Adjusted

 - Eternals - 19.42m

 - JW3 - missed

 - FB3 - missed

 

Puss in Boots T-10 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .211x (1.05m)

 - Minions 2 - missed

 - Lyle Lyle - 6.36x (3.66m)

 - Super Pets - 2.07x (4.55m)

 

I Wanna Dance T-11 comps

 - Elvis - missed

 

Babylon T-11 comps

 - Elvis - missed

 

M3GAN T-25 comps

 - Nope - .117x (751k)

 

(Not much to go on)

[M37]

4 hours ago, Gkalaitza said:

Avatar 2 will be stronger with people in their 40s and 50s (even 60s) which is a demographic that i suppose is less pre-sale heavy in their ticket buying habits compared to younger people

Surprisingly, this hasn't been the case in the post-pandemic market, in that while older audiences are going to the movies less frequently (audience has shrunk), those that still do attend are generally buying tickets (at least for Thursday) earlier than their younger counterparts, presumably having been cued into the world of online purchases by necessity during COVID. The films that have skewed older - NTTD, TTP, Elvis, etc - have all had softer final week of sales than similar comps with a younger audience composition

 

Now one could argue that Avatwo might bring out a larger share of those infrequent and therefore more walk-up heavy older audiences than those other films, but that Thursday ticket sales have been robust from ~T-14/11 to T-7, suggesting a higher preview number, only to plateau rather than started to spike from T-7 to T-4, is a pattern we've seen before, most notably with the previously mentioned NTTD and Elvis

 

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

Older audiences recently have been PS heavy on OW but good legs. The trend is less easy to see currently because fanbase films are also more presale heavy and the biggest fanbase right now is MCU which skews younger. But if Lucasfilm ever gets around to releasing that new Star Wars movie, I think that thing is gonna be next-level PS heavy.

[Tokugennumataka]

4 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Older audiences recently have been PS heavy on OW but good legs. The trend is less easy to see currently because fanbase films are also more presale heavy and the biggest fanbase right now is MCU which skews younger. But if Lucasfilm ever gets around to releasing that new Star Wars movie, I think that thing is gonna be next-level PS heavy.

Yup. For instance, taking TGM, its iM was 6.5x. That's obviously very good, but there was nothing in that figure to indicate that ultra leggy run (apart from the reception obviously, but even that's a stretch). 

[Gkalaitza]

22 minutes ago, M37 said:

Surprisingly, this hasn't been the case in the post-pandemic market, in that while older audiences are going to the movies less frequently (audience has shrunk), those that still do attend are generally buying tickets (at least for Thursday) earlier than their younger counterparts, presumably having been cued into the world of online purchases by necessity during COVID. The films that have skewed older - NTTD, TTP, Elvis, etc - have all had softer final week of sales than similar comps with a younger audience composition

 

Now one could argue that Avatwo might bring out a larger share of those infrequent and therefore more walk-up heavy older audiences than those other films, but that Thursday ticket sales have been robust from ~T-14/11 to T-7, suggesting a higher preview number, only to plateau rather than started to spike from T-7 to T-4, is a pattern we've seen before, most notably with the previously mentioned NTTD and Elvis

 

 

Thats interesting info thanks. I also wonder if the older demgraphics that buy tickets ahead are less inclined to rush into opening day on average compared to the younger generation that may have been accustomed/"trained" to do so from Superhero Movie vieweing/ticket buying habits

Edited December 11, 2022 by Gkalaitza

[Eric Prime]

7 hours ago, M37 said:

Philly Fri was only +176, not +391 - that was the 2 day total for sales (CC@Eric Dielman). Last 4 days in reverse (Sat/T-5 to Tue/T-9) are +143, +176, +215, +161, +134

 

Just realized I made a typo lol. Don't know how that happened. So yeah, that Saturday isn't really that bad or weird after all.

[JustLurking]

14 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:

Yup. For instance, taking TGM, its iM was 6.5x. That's obviously very good, but there was nothing in that figure to indicate that ultra leggy run (apart from the reception obviously, but even that's a stretch). 

TGM's IM is lower than it would be normally because demand shifted to monday for memorial day though. Not really the greatest example.

[M37]

On 12/9/2022 at 12:53 PM, M37 said:

Updated with data through T-7. Still a big gap between the highs and lows, really not much in the middle near where the average lines lie around $19M. How much convergence trends towards those upper vs lower bounds is the question in the final week

 

 

Average chart with data through T-5.  While the main average line is bouncy depending on which data points are updated each day, there is definitely some downward motion in last few days, particularly as compared to TGM. Might add another average line (for Batman) as a lower bound given the recent trends (though that title had IMO an odd sales pattern, both by timing/pace and market distribution)

 

 

 

On 12/9/2022 at 12:53 PM, M37 said:

However, a word of caution: if Avatar were to prove to be a more pre-sale heavy title, seeing a growth vs comps from the ~T-14/11 to ~T-7/4 period, before lagging a bit down the homestretch and dipping back down, is precisely the pattern one would expect ...