The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Porthos]

On 1/3/2023 at 10:34 PM, Porthos said:

 

Might as well keep it up...

 

Quick and Dirty M3GAN Sacramento Report:

494/6973 (7.08% sold) [+123 tickets]

31.89% of Nope at T-2       (2.04m)

---

23.57% of Sonic 2 at T-2                           (1.47m)

18.07% of Minions 2 at T-2                       (1.94m)

32.72% of Ghostbusters: Afterlife at T-2 (1.47m)

 

Quick and Dirty M3GAN Sacramento Report:

812/7128 (11.39% sold) [+318 tickets]

35.95% of Nope at T-1                             (2.30m)

50.66% of Scream (2022) at T-1             (1.77m)

---

28.17% of Sonic 2 at T-1                           (1.76m)

20.20% of Minions 2 at T-1                       (2.17m)

39.04% of Ghostbusters: Afterlife at T-1 (1.76m)

 

=====

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 1/4/2023 at 9:16 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Knock at Cabin	T-29	Jax	5	14	9	9	2,251	0.40%
		Phx	4	10	7	7	1,554	0.45%
		Ral	4	12	16	16	1,656	0.97%
	Total		13	36	32	32	5,461	0.59%
M3GAN	T-1	Jax	6	24	28	92	2,224	4.14%
		Phx	7	23	49	111	3,208	3.46%
		Ral	8	21	38	131	2,387	5.49%
	Total		21	68	115	334	7,819	4.27%
Otto	T-8	Jax	3	11	9	9	1,453	0.62%
		Phx	4	11	11	11	1,283	0.86%
		Ral	3	8	4	4	966	0.41%
	Total		10	30	24	24	3,702	0.65%
Otto (Limited)	T-1	Jax	2	9	3	3	489	0.61%
		Ral	1	3	18	18	198	9.09%
	Total		3	12	21	21	687	3.06%

 

M3GAN T-1 comps

 - Antlers - 4.575x (1.69m)

 - Nope - .245x (1.56m)

 - Black Phone - .779x (2.02m)

 - Candyman - 1.136x (2.16m)

 - Halloween Kills - .236x (1.15m)

 - Halloween Ends - .313x (1.69m)

 - Men - 2.589x (1.095m)

 - Northman - .825x (1.113)

 - The Invitation - 3.181x (2.47m)

 - X - 2.456x (1.08m)

 

A Man Called Otto (Limited) T-1 comps

 - 3000 Years - .333x

 - Belfast - .636x

 - Mack and Rita - 1.5x

 

A Man Called Otto T-8 comps

 - Easter Sunday - .828x (414k)

 - Elvis - .075x (242k)

 

Knock at the Cabin T-29 comps

 - Nope - .187x (1.2m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
House Party	T-7	Jax	3	7	0	0	672	0.00%
		Phx	2	5	1	1	585	0.17%
		Ral	3	6	0	0	734	0.00%
	Total		8	18	1	1	1,991	0.05%
Knock at Cabin	T-28	Jax	5	14	0	9	2,251	0.40%
		Phx	4	10	1	8	1,554	0.51%
		Ral	5	14	0	16	2,228	0.72%
	Total		14	38	1	33	6,033	0.55%
Left Behind	T-21	Jax	4	4	5	5	453	1.10%
		Phx	5	5	10	10	830	1.20%
		Ral	5	5	15	15	530	2.83%
	Total		14	14	30	30	1,813	1.65%
M3GAN	T-0	Jax	6	24	79	171	2,224	7.69%
		Phx	7	29	96	207	4,292	4.82%
		Ral	8	30	101	232	3,792	6.12%
	Total		21	83	276	610	10,308	5.92%
Otto	T-7	Jax	3	11	0	9	1,453	0.62%
		Phx	4	11	6	17	1,283	1.33%
		Ral	3	14	5	9	1,623	0.55%
	Total		10	36	11	35	4,359	0.80%
Otto (Limited)	T-0	Jax	2	10	6	9	526	1.71%
		Ral	1	3	10	28	198	14.14%
	Total		3	13	16	37	724	5.11%

 

M3GAN T-0 comps

 - Antlers - 5.169x (1.91m)

 - Nope - .307x (1.97m)

 - Black Phone - .902x (2.35m)

 - Candyman - 1.18x (2.24m)

 - Halloween Kills - .337x (1.63m)

 - Halloween Ends - .425x (2.295m)

 - Men - 4.04x (1.71m)

 - Northman - 1.11x (1.5m)

 - The Invitation - 3.262x (2.53m)

 - X - 2.735x (1.2m)

 

This has been blowing up the last few days.  Expecting over 2m for previews now, could get to 2.5m with final update.

 

A Man Called Otto (Limited) T-0 comps

 - 3000 Years - .319x

 - Belfast - .881x

 - Mack and Rita - 1.194x

 

A Man Called Otto T-7 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 1.09x (547k)

 - Elvis - .1x (321k)

 

Knock at the Cabin T-28 comps

 - Nope - .19x (1.21m)

[katnisscinnaplex]

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	M3GAN	PLF	6	78	78	1,491	5.23%	$15.96	$1,244.85
		Standard	44	357	357	5,778	6.18%	$12.09	$4,314.36
	Total		50	435	435	7,269	5.98%	$12.78	$5,559.21

 

M3GAN T-0 comps

 - Nope - .342x (2.19m)

 - Don't Worry - .665x (2.06m)

 - Northman - 1.883x (2.54m)

 - Black Phone - .577x (1.5m)

 

Pretty good sales here too.  I'll put my prediction at 2.2m

[filmlover]

 

[M37]

Daily increases for T-1

• Philly = +54%
• Sacto = +64%
• Jax/Pho/Ral = +83%

That's on average a larger increase in that period than Minions, where sales basically doubled by the T-0 check, so set expectations for final numbers accordingly, probably mid-$2s previews if not up to $3M, though should see a lower IM given the lingering holiday impact. Could follow Black Phone pretty closely for Thursday and weekend

 

Fwiw, I know there is going to be an inclination to point to reviews as the cause and effect for Megan's late surge - and there probably is some effect for sure - but I believe this late surge was coming regardless, given the audience and holidays limiting sales

[Eric is Quiet]

Quorum Updates

Women Talking T-2: 13.04% Awareness, 4.52 Interest

Alice Darling T-16: 16.74%, 4.95

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania T-44: 35.4%, 5.68

John Wick: Chapter 4 T-79: 55.65%, 6.6

The Flash T-162: 36.23%, 5.81

 

M3GAN T-2: 49.13% Awareness, 6.06 Interest

Final Awareness: 90% chance of 10M, 60% chance of 20M, 40% chance of 30M, 25% chance of 40M

Final Interest: 100% chance of 10M, 94% chance of 20M and 30M, 82% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 60% chance of 30M, 40% chance of 40M

Horror Interest: 100% chance of 40M

 

House Party T-9: 33.55% Awareness, 5.81 Interest

Final Awareness: 42% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 74% chance of 10M

Known IP Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Known IP Interest: 100% chance of 10M

 

Magic Mike's Last Dance T-37: 30.86% Awareness, 5.03 Interest

T-30 Awareness: 93% chance of 10M, 57% chance of 20M, 43% chance of 30M

T-30 Interest: 62% chance of 10M, 35% chance of 20M, 19% chance of 30M

[Dragoncaine]

3 minutes ago, 3RIC said:

Quorum Updates

Women Talking T-2: 13.04% Awareness, 4.52 Interest

Alice Darling T-16: 16.74%, 4.95

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania T-44: 35.4%, 5.68

John Wick: Chapter 4 T-79: 55.65%, 6.6

The Flash T-162: 36.23%, 5.81

 

M3GAN T-2: 49.13% Awareness, 6.06 Interest

Final Awareness: 90% chance of 10M, 60% chance of 20M, 40% chance of 30M, 25% chance of 40M

Final Interest: 100% chance of 10M, 94% chance of 20M and 30M, 82% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 60% chance of 30M, 40% chance of 40M

Horror Interest: 100% chance of 40M

 

House Party T-9: 33.55% Awareness, 5.81 Interest

Final Awareness: 42% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 74% chance of 10M

Known IP Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Known IP Interest: 100% chance of 10M

 

Magic Mike's Last Dance T-37: 30.86% Awareness, 5.03 Interest

T-30 Awareness: 93% chance of 10M, 57% chance of 20M, 43% chance of 30M

T-30 Interest: 62% chance of 10M, 35% chance of 20M, 19% chance of 30M

The Flash over Quantumania this early is really interesting.

[M37]

16 minutes ago, Dragoncaine said:

The Flash over Quantumania this early is really interesting.

Clearly Paul Rudd needs to get himself arrested to build the buzz

[Porthos]

One thing to note about M3GAN compared to other flicks:  It's gonna have very few PLFs compared to some of the comped flicks.  Locally does have a smattering of DBOXes and a Giant Screen at one of my locals with 4 PLF screens.  Aside from that though, A2 is still sucking up the vast majority of them.

 

The 5pm start time does make the matinee situation a little more complicated as some theaters which normally set their cutoff at 6pm might be tempted to just say "hang it all" and not bother, especially given that M3GAN is on a low amount of screens (locally it's at one to two screens per theater, depending on just how many they actually have available). 

 

On the other hand, if they do have 5pm matinee showings, that could inflate the matinee seat count given the paucity of showings available (plus 5pm being much more desirable than 3pm).

 

Not that I expect this to radically change things, but could depress the comp at the margins.

[keysersoze123]

where are Quorum numbers for Guardians 3. That is releasing before Flash. Flash over Ant-man is not a shocker. Flash has multiple SH including bats. Ant-man has been the lowest tier SH in MCU verse. 2nd movie released between IW and EG opened to just 76m. 

 

Guardians 3 on the other hand should have way bigger hype. It would be interesting to compare that to say Dr Strange 2 which blew up huge after NWH. 

[Eric is Quiet]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

where are Quorum numbers for Guardians 3. That is releasing before Flash. Flash over Ant-man is not a shocker. Flash has multiple SH including bats. Ant-man has been the lowest tier SH in MCU verse. 2nd movie released between IW and EG opened to just 76m. 

 

Guardians 3 on the other hand should have way bigger hype. It would be interesting to compare that to say Dr Strange 2 which blew up huge after NWH. 

53.48% Awareness and 6.43 Interest. FWIW, it's #3 in awareness, behind just John Wick 4 and Little Mermaid, and #3 in Interest, behind Wick 4 and Across the Spider-Verse. So yeah, that movie's doing awesome at the moment.

 

If you want MCU comparisons, I don't have exact comparisons with Doctor Strange 2 at the same point in time (though it is alreadymatching its T-60 metrics of 53.15% and 6.39), but it is ahead of Black Panther 2, which at this point was at about 50% awareness, though Panther did have higher Interest in around the 6.5-6.6 range. So yeah, Guardians will be fine.

 

https://thequorum.com/film/?filmID=263&scrollTop=awareness

[Eric is Quiet]

 

Anyways, I hope this comes near my theaters. Would be really cool to have my first viewing on the big screen.

[keysersoze123]

47 minutes ago, 3RIC said:

53.48% Awareness and 6.43 Interest. FWIW, it's #3 in awareness, behind just John Wick 4 and Little Mermaid, and #3 in Interest, behind Wick 4 and Across the Spider-Verse. So yeah, that movie's doing awesome at the moment.

 

If you want MCU comparisons, I don't have exact comparisons with Doctor Strange 2 at the same point in time (though it is alreadymatching its T-60 metrics of 53.15% and 6.39), but it is ahead of Black Panther 2, which at this point was at about 50% awareness, though Panther did have higher Interest in around the 6.5-6.6 range. So yeah, Guardians will be fine.

 

https://thequorum.com/film/?filmID=263&scrollTop=awareness

Good numbers. I guess we are early with this data. I would think awareness can only go up. But it seem to go up and down. 

[Firepower]

Could John Wick 4 challenge 70+ mln opening?

[Eric is Quiet]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Good numbers. I guess we are early with this data. I would think awareness can only go up. But it seem to go up and down. 

Well actually, awareness generally only goes up, but that's because most movies start at a lower threshold of the 20s or 30s, so it's easier to build and gain. When you're in the 40s or higher, there's still building, but it's not as gradual, since the ceiling is a lot more prominent. For example, only three movies (NWH, The Batman, Avatar 2) got 70% awareness or higher the day before release. Only 12 got 60% or higher the day before release.

 

But honestly, Guardians should go up over the next few months minus the occasional stagnation here and there. That and Little Mermaid are the two movies this year where if they don't get 60% awareness or higher before their release, I would be shocked.

[Ezen Baklattan]

...is there a path to $100m for M3GAN???

[XXR & Friends]

25 minutes ago, Ezen Baklattan said:

...is there a path to $100m for M3GAN???

Not for OW….

 

[misterpepp]

For those wondering about tracking this title (assuming @3RIC since he asked about this one), House Party is potentially not going to open wide. Friend of mine did a scan and he’s only seeing about 500-800 or so theaters with it booked currently. There aren’t any chains still waiting to put up tickets, either.

 

Plane is also looking more like 1.5-2k than 2.5/3/3.5k.

Edited January 6, 2023 by datpepper

[Hiccup23]

47 minutes ago, Ezen Baklattan said:

...is there a path to $100m for M3GAN???

 

If it opens $30M+ and audiences like it then possibly but very unlikely. 

[misterpepp]

By the way, tickets for Fear go on sale tomorrow, it’s the new thriller from Deon Taylor that seems to be going at least semi-wide on the 27th.