The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, Cmasterclay said:

Seems not terribly bad for Plane. Double digits possible?

 

Sure - 100M people got a $5 ticket code that gives the movie their $5, but Atom pays the rest...

 

$10 is a cheap date for a high schooler or college student in Atlanta or Dallas or Sacramento...especially since you can joke about seeing the movie with the terrible title...

[charlie Jatinder]

7 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Sure - 100M people got a $5 ticket code that gives the movie their $5, but Atom pays the rest...

 

$10 is a cheap date for a high schooler or college student in Atlanta or Dallas or Sacramento...especially since you can joke about seeing the movie with the terrible title...

Ah make sense now. Plane TUE sales were kinda big.

[TwoMisfits]

7 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Ah make sense now. Plane TUE sales were kinda big.

 

For TMobile deals on Atom for a movie of X quality...

The $4/$5 ticket codes are the most effective at bumping presales.

The BOGOs are somewhat effective, if the movie is good enough.

The $5 off codes are the least effective, unless it's a blockbuster budget movie or something that people just need a nudge for. 

[el sid]

I didn't have the time to count all new movies today (better said to search for the comparison numbers), sorry.
Tomorrow all three.

Plane, counted today for Thursday, Jan 12:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 50 (2 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 18 (1 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 2 (1 showtime)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 1 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 15 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 39 (2 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 36 (3 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 161.

81% up since Monday.
Comps (all counted on Wednesday for Thursday): Angel Has Fallen (1.5M from previews) had 354 sold tickets,

Rambo: Last Blood (1.3M) had 321 sold tickets

and Copshop (?) had 34 sold tickets.

Plane, counted today for Friday, Jan 13:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 153 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 11 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 2 (3 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 2 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 3 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 37 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 40 (4 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 248.

Up very good 199% since Monday.
Comps (all counted on Wednesday for Friday): Angel Has Fallen (21.4M OW) had 293 sold tickets,

Rambo: Last Blood (18.9M) had 228 sold tickets,

Copshop (2.3M) had 26 sold tickets,

BT (30M) had 1.000 sold tickets
and The Protege (2.9M) had 83 sold tickets.

 

Double digits are possible IMO.

 

[Eric is Quiet]

Quorum Updates

A Man Called Otto T-2: 38.12% Awareness, 5.48 Interest

When You Finish Saving the World T-9: 9.93%, 4.93

Knock at the Cabin T-23: 27.61%, 5.77

Emily T-37: 21.52%, 4.74

Cocaine Bear T-44: 29.15%, 5.69

Evil Dead Rise T-100: 28.93%, 5.54

 

House Party T-2: 35.15% Awareness, 5.82 Interest

Final Awareness: 39% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 74% chance of 10M

Known IP Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Known IP Interest: 100% chance of 10M

 

Plane T-2: 28.41% Awareness, 5.67 Interest

Final Awareness: 7% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 74% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 33% chance of 5M, 0% chance of 10M

Original - Low Interest: 80% chance of 5M, 40% chance of 10M

 

Scream VI T-58: 53.65% Awareness, 6.21 Interest

T-60 Awareness: 100% chance of 50M

T-60 Interest: 100% chance of 50M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 50% chance of 40M (only two horror comps are above 40% awareness)

Horror Interest: 100% chance of 30M, 50% chance of 40M (only two horror comps are above 5.5 in Interest)

 

65 T-65 (ha ha): 23.16% Awareness, 5.77 Interest

T-60 Awareness: 59% chance of 10M, 31% chance of 20M

T-60 Interest: 74% chance of 10M, 68% chance of 20M

Original - High Awareness: 67% chance of 10M, 33% chance of 20M

Original - High Interest: 50% chance of 10M and 20M

[Ronin46]

https://deadline.com/2023/01/box-office-mlk-gerard-butler-plane-m3gan-house-party-1235218675/

 

AV2 35

M3GAN 17-20

Otto 8

Plane 7-10

House Party mid single digits

 

all for the 4day

[Dragoncaine]

1 hour ago, Ronin46 said:

https://deadline.com/2023/01/box-office-mlk-gerard-butler-plane-m3gan-house-party-1235218675/

 

AV2 35

M3GAN 17-20

Otto 8

Plane 7-10

House Party mid single digits

 

all for the 4day

Feels low for the first four movies, but we'll see.

[Eric is Quiet]

22 hours ago, Eric the Plane said:

House Party Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	37	51	5807	0.88%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 15

 

Comp

0.152x of Jackass Forever T-2 (250K)

0.217x of Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent T-2 (181K)

0.152x of The Bob's Burgers Movie T-2 (228K)

1.244x of Easter Sunday T-2 (622K)

House Party Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	37	75	5807	1.29%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 24

 

Comp

0.166x of Jackass Forever T-1 (274K)

0.273x of Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent T-1 (228K)

0.179x of The Bob's Burgers Movie T-1 (268K)

1.704x of Easter Sunday T-1 (852K)

[Eric is Quiet]

22 hours ago, Eric the Plane said:

Plane Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	32	145	3975	3.65%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 65

 

Comp

0.714x of Snake Eyes T-2 (1M)

0.592x of Last Night in Soho T-2 (414K)

2.589x of The 355 T-2 (906K)

0.681x of Moonfall T-2 (476K)

0.210x of Uncharted T-2 (776K)

0.096x of Morbius T-2 (546K)

1.355x of Ambulance T-2 (949K)

0.150x of Bullet Train T-2 (692K)

Plane Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	32	218	3975	5.48%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 73

 

Comp

0.838x of Snake Eyes T-1 (1.17M)

0.705x of Last Night in Soho T-1 (494K)

0.810x of The King's Man T-1 (648K)

2.868x of The 355 T-1 (1M)

0.890x of Moonfall T-1 (623K)

0.245x of Uncharted T-1 (907K)

0.118x of Morbius T-1 (673K)

1.503x of Ambulance T-1 (1.05M)

0.193x of Bullet Train T-1 (886K)

[misterpepp]

My go-to guy has given me a tentative Ant-Man 3 sale date of 1/16, in the evening.

[Eric is Quiet]

11 minutes ago, datpepper said:

My go-to guy has given me a tentative Ant-Man 3 sale date of 1/16, in the evening.

Do you think Martin Luther King is happy about this? 🤔

[keysersoze123]

26 minutes ago, datpepper said:

My go-to guy has given me a tentative Ant-Man 3 sale date of 1/16, in the evening.

That is weird starting sales during holiday evening. Might mess up OD sales for sure. Then again long term it should not matter. It still has a long 34 day presales cycle. 

[misterpepp]

Should note that my source is not quite 100% on this one, but feels pretty confident, and I have enough trust in them since they've given me all of the dates I've shared on here before, nearly all of which turned out accurate. That said, I'll provide updates if there's any changes, unless Disney definitively says otherwise.

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, datpepper said:

My go-to guy has given me a tentative Ant-Man 3 sale date of 1/16, in the evening.

 

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

That is weird starting sales during holiday evening. Might mess up OD sales for sure. Then again long term it should not matter. It still has a long 34 day presales cycle. 

 

19 minutes ago, datpepper said:

Should note that my source is not quite 100% on this one, but feels pretty confident, and I have enough trust in them since they've given me all of the dates I've shared on here before, nearly all of which turned out accurate. That said, I'll provide updates if there's any changes, unless Disney definitively says otherwise.

 

*checks*

 

Thought so.

 

MNF playoff game on ESPN and ABC on Monday Night (Dallas @ Tampa Bay, ftr).

 

That's almost certainly the tie-in.  w/some sort of promo, probably.

 

(though in that case why the trailer was last weekend, I have no idea, unless they're double dipping on promos)

((or the numbers from the National Championship College Football Game were that terrible ))

Edited January 12, 2023 by Porthos

[Joyous Legion]

Might as well cross post I guess:

Initial targets: Would like to see 16+ previews, so about evenly between BP and SC.    
 

Approx 24 hr th:final th for recent movies:

BW 1.1:13.2, 12x, 27 days (mtc varying curfews, PA, missing some Canada)

SC .82:9.1*, 11x, 17 days (*storm adjusted est, delta)

Et 1.33:9.5, 7.1x, 24 days (horrible reception)

BPWF 4.1:28, 6.8x, 40 days

A2 2:17, 8.5x, 24 days

Essentially no correlation with days to ratio. Reasonable relationship between start and ratio

Spoiler

(especially excluding BW which was inflated by mtc capacity stuff and et deflated by reception):

 

 

 

Giving:

final=start+added=start+start*added/start~=s+s(9.43-1.815 log_2 (s))

which gives the following table:

Th final	Expected start	Ratio
12	1.21	9.917355372
13	1.35	9.62962963
14	1.49	9.395973154
15	1.64	9.146341463
16	1.8	8.888888889
17	1.96	8.673469388
18	2.13	8.450704225
19	2.3	8.260869565
20	2.485	8.048289738
21	2.67	7.865168539

 

 

So I will be looking for ~1.8M start — or ~90% A2, 44% BP2, 2.2x SC

 

You can use expected ratio vs actual ratio for any of those 5 comps to adjust the raw 24hr comp nums

Edited January 12, 2023 by Legion in Boots

[Krissykins]

12 hours ago, Eric the Plane said:

Scream VI T-58: 53.65% Awareness, 6.21 Interest

T-60 Awareness: 100% chance of 50M

T-60 Interest: 100% chance of 50M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 50% chance of 40M (only two horror comps are above 40% awareness)

Horror Interest: 100% chance of 30M, 50% chance of 40M (only two horror comps are above 5.5 in Interest)

Ooh this looks promising! 

[XXR & Friends]

3 hours ago, Porthos said:

MNF playoff game on ESPN and ABC on Monday Night (Dallas @ Tampa Bay, ftr).

40-50M people will be watching that particular matchup so it’s definitely a good call to announce sales there. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

21 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
House Party	T-1	Jax	5	13	5	20	1,353	1.48%
		Phx	5	11	3	11	1,243	0.88%
		Ral	6	13	3	14	1,110	1.26%
	Total		16	37	11	45	3,706	1.21%
Knock at Cabin	T-22	Jax	5	14	3	15	2,251	0.67%
		Phx	4	10	0	14	1,554	0.90%
		Ral	5	14	2	21	2,228	0.94%
	Total		14	38	5	50	6,033	0.83%
Left Behind	T-15	Jax	4	4	0	22	453	4.86%
		Phx	5	5	6	20	830	2.41%
		Ral	5	5	9	35	530	6.60%
	Total		14	14	15	77	1,813	4.25%
Missing	T-8	Jax	5	19	1	11	1,590	0.69%
		Phx	4	9	0	9	1,687	0.53%
		Ral	3	6	0	2	648	0.31%
	Total		12	34	1	22	3,925	0.56%
Otto	T-1	Jax	5	20	4	23	2,092	1.10%
		Phx	7	18	14	43	1,782	2.41%
		Ral	6	23	26	79	2,202	3.59%
	Total		18	61	44	145	6,076	2.39%
Plane	T-1	Jax	5	13	18	36	1,239	2.91%
		Phx	6	13	20	51	1,546	3.30%
		Ral	7	12	9	53	1,231	4.31%
	Total		18	38	47	140	4,016	3.49%
Plane (EA)	T-0	Jax	1	1	0	16	42	38.10%
	Total		1	1	0	16	42	38.10%
Slime	T-8	Jax	5	11	22	22	1,092	2.01%
		Phx	4	6	14	14	892	1.57%
		Ral	5	9	15	15	1,021	1.47%
	Total		14	26	51	51	3,005	1.70%

 

A Man Called Otto T-1 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 1.368x (684k)

 - Elvis - .169x (540k)

 - House of Gucci - .399x (519k)

 - Respect - 1.381x (898k)

 - Fabelmans - 3.085x (1.23m)

 - Stillwater - 3.085x (864k)

 - Father Stu - 1.058x (582k)

 

Plane T-1 comps

 - Devotion - 1.386x (852k)

 - Ambulance - 1.069x (748k)

 - Stillwater - 2.979x (834k)

 - Amsterdam - .986x (542k)

 - Uncharted - .15x (555k)

 - Bullet Train - .189x (633k)

 

House Party T-1 comps

 - Easter Sunday - .425x (212k)

 - Violent Night - .237x (261k)

 - Massive Talent - .236x (165k)

 - Bobs Burgers - .093x (139k)

 

Missing T-8 comps

 - Crawdads - .1x (201k)

 - Bullet Train - .091x (303k)

 - Lost City - .131x (327k)

 

Slime T-8 comps

 - JJK - missed

 - DBZ - .062x (266k)

 - One Piece - .109x (185k)

 

Knock at the Cabin T-22 comps

 - Nope - .214x (1.37m)

 - M3GAN - 2.08x (5.73m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
House Party	T-0	Jax	5	13	4	24	1,353	1.77%
		Phx	5	11	5	16	1,243	1.29%
		Ral	6	15	7	21	1,303	1.61%
	Total		16	39	16	61	3,899	1.56%
Knock at Cabin	T-21	Jax	5	14	0	15	2,251	0.67%
		Phx	4	10	0	14	1,554	0.90%
		Ral	5	14	0	21	2,228	0.94%
	Total		14	38	0	50	6,033	0.83%
Left Behind	T-14	Jax	4	4	0	22	453	4.86%
		Phx	5	5	4	24	830	2.89%
		Ral	5	5	0	35	530	6.60%
	Total		14	14	4	81	1,813	4.47%
Missing	T-7	Jax	5	19	1	12	1,590	0.75%
		Phx	4	9	0	9	1,687	0.53%
		Ral	3	7	1	3	739	0.41%
	Total		12	35	2	24	4,016	0.60%
Otto	T-0	Jax	5	21	27	50	2,129	2.35%
		Phx	7	18	44	87	1,782	4.88%
		Ral	7	27	46	125	2,777	4.50%
	Total		19	66	117	262	6,688	3.92%
Plane	T-0	Jax	5	13	8	44	1,239	3.55%
		Phx	7	13	10	61	1,546	3.95%
		Ral	8	14	17	70	1,442	4.85%
	Total		20	40	35	175	4,227	4.14%
Slime	T-7	Jax	5	11	1	23	1,092	2.11%
		Phx	4	6	3	17	892	1.91%
		Ral	6	11	5	20	1,593	1.26%
	Total		15	28	9	60	3,577	1.68%

 

A Man Called Otto T-0 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 2.096x (1.048m)

 - Elvis - .227x (727k)

 - House of Gucci - .577x (750k)

 - Respect - 1.747x (1.135m)

 - Fabelmans - 3.316x (1.32m)

 - Stillwater - 3.91x (1.09m)

 - Father Stu - 1.175x (646k)

 

I'm thinking around 750k at the moment.  Previews only count for theaters that are adding it this week so I'd expect the audience to be split between new locations and old.  Plus some demand is burned off already after showing in 600+ theaters for the past week.

 

Plane T-0 comps

 - Devotion - .967x (594k)

 - Ambulance - 1.036x (725k)

 - Stillwater - 2.612x (731k)

 - Amsterdam - 1.012x (556k)

 - Uncharted - .139x (515k)

 - Bullet Train - .168x (562k)

 

Must have really been helped by the deal with comps falling from yesterday.  Looking like somewhere between 550k and 700k at the moment.

 

House Party T-0 comps

 - Easter Sunday - .488x (244k)

 - Violent Night - .229x (252k)

 - Massive Talent - .232x (162k)

 - Bobs Burgers - .099x (148k)

 

Hopefully we'll get a number for this.  I'll go with 250k for now.

 

Missing T-7 comps

 - Crawdads - .103x (207k)

 - Bullet Train - .089x (297k)

 - Lost City - .12x (300k)

 

Slime T-7 comps

 - JJK - missed

 - DBZ - .069x (295k)

 - One Piece - .122x (208k)

 

Left Behind T-14 comps

 - I Heard the Bells - .238x (183k)

 

Knock at the Cabin T-21 comps

 - Nope - .211x (1.35m)

 - M3GAN - 1.852x (5.09m)

[katnisscinnaplex]

18 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Plane	Standard	23	-	67	1,880	3.56%	$12.07	$808.89

 

Plane T-1 comps

 - Bullet Train - .278x (931k)

 - Beast - 1.634x (1.51m)

Santikos Tracking

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Plane	Standard	23	27	94	1,880	5.00%	$12.00	$1,128.20

 

Plane T-0 comps

 - Bullet Train - .204x (683k)

 - Beast - 1.19x (1.1m)

 

Pretty harsh drop from yesterday.  To be on the safe side, I'd project somewhere around 775k.

[YM!]

9 hours ago, Eric the Plane said:

Do you think Martin Luther King is happy about this? 🤔

Kang is boxing and a brother, so yeah.